Washington Redskins (4-5) at New Orleans Saints (7-2)
The Saints emphatically defeated the Bills in Buffalo last week, winning by the final score of 47-10 and winning the first down rate battle by 27.61%. That’s the best single game margin in the NFL this season. They rank 2nd in first down rate differential on the season and 3rd in my roster rankings. One of the best teams in the league, the Saints are a true Super Bowl contender and are a strong candidate to face the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Championship. However, this could easily be a trap game for the Saints, because, after this game, they head to Los Angeles to take on another 7-2 NFC team, the Rams, a game in which the Saints will likely be underdogs.
The Redskins, meanwhile, get the Giants in Washington next on their schedule, a game in which they should be significant favorites (-8.5 on the early line). Underdogs are 65-40 ATS since 2014 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. On top of that, underdogs of 7 or more are 63-40 ATS since 1989 before being favorites of 7 or more the following week. That being said, we aren’t getting any line value with the Redskins as 9 point underdogs. I have these two teams about 7.5 points apart in my roster rankings, so the Saints should be favored by at least 10, if not 10.5. If this line moves to 10 before gametime, I will revisit this pick, but for now this is a low confidence pick.
Update: +10 has popped up in some places Sunday morning. Grab it if you can.
New Orleans Saints 30 Washington Redskins 23
Pick against the spread: Washington +10