Pittsburgh Steelers (11-3) at Houston Texans (4-10)
The Texans were blown out last week in Jacksonville, losing 45-7. The good news for them is teams tend to bounce back from blowout losses, going 54-31 ATS since 2002 after a loss by 35 or more. It’s counterintuitive, but it makes sense, as teams tend to be overlooked, underrated, and embarrassed after getting blown out. That blowout loss didn’t cause a big line shift, but that’s largely because their opponents, the Pittsburgh Steelers, lost arguably their best player Antonio Brown with a calf injury that is expected to keep him out for at least the final two weeks of the regular season. Already missing stud linebacker Ryan Shazier for the season, the Steelers are far from 100% right now. The Steelers are also expected to be without starting left guard Ramon Foster with a concussion, though they do get right tackle Marcus Gilbert back from a 4-game suspension.
In addition to their injury issues, the Steelers could also be flat this week after last week’s heartbreaking home loss to the New England Patriots. They’re typically flat in non-divisional road games against weak opponents anyway, as they are 4-15 ATS since Ben Roethlisberger’s rookie year in 2004 as non-divisional road favorites of 4.5 or more. Earlier this year, they lost in Chicago and almost lost in Indianapolis as big road favorites, and they only have 4 wins by more than 7 points all year, so the Texans could give them more of a game than people are expecting.
That being said, I would not recommend betting the Texans, for two reasons. For one, I don’t think we’re getting enough line value with the Texans. Given all of the players they have lost to injury this season, they are one of the worst teams in the league right now, with quarterback TJ Yates under center behind arguably the worst offensive line in football and a defense that has not been nearly the same since losing JJ Watt and Whitney Mercilus for the season. Two, the Steelers don’t have a tough game next week, with the Browns coming to town, and superior teams do tend to take care of business when they don’t have any upcoming distractions, as favorites of 6+ are 72-43 ATS since 2014 before being favorites of 6+ again. The Texans should be the right side, but only for pick ‘em purposes.
Pittsburgh Steelers 20 Houston Texans 13
Pick against the spread: Houston +9