Green Bay Packers (2-1-1) at Detroit Lions (1-3)
A couple weeks ago, the Packers were 3 point favorites in Washington and I picked the Redskins to pull the upset, which they ended up doing by the final score of 31-17. The Packers are road favorites again this week in Detroit, but there are several differences in this game. Aaron Rodgers is healthier, getting in a full week of practice this week. The Packers aren’t coming off of a 70 minute tie with the Vikings like they were a couple weeks ago. The Packers are also facing a much easier opponent. While the Redskins are an underrated team that can compete for a playoff spot in the tough NFC, the Lions are just 1-3 and have not played well against playoff caliber opponents in recent years, going 1-11 against eventual playoff teams in 2016-2017 combined.
The Lions did beat the Patriots in Detroit a couple weeks ago, but the Patriots were not at 100% with defensive end Trey Flowers and safety Patrick Chung out with injury and the way the Lions have played in the rest of their games suggests that game against New England will look like an outlier on their schedule when all is said and done this season. The Lions are a pretty mediocre team overall, primarily due to a terrible defense. They’re also missing arguably their best offensive lineman, right guard TJ Lang, with a concussion, which is a big blow to this offense. Despite that, the Packers are only 1 point favorites in this game, down from 3 in the Washington game. We’re getting good line value with them this week and they’re worth a bet.
Green Bay Packers 33 Detroit Lions 27
Pick against the spread: Green Bay -1