Indianapolis Colts (1-4) at New York Jets (2-3)
The Jets have a pair of wins by double digits, beating the Lions 48-17 week 1 and the Broncos 34-16 last week. However, they were not as good as the final score suggested in either game. Against the Lions, they won the first down rate battle by just +5.94% and didn’t have a touchdown drive of more than 6 plays all game, benefitting from short fields off turnovers (5 takeaways), big plays on offense (2 touchdowns of 40+ yards), and return touchdowns (2 return touchdowns). Last week, they lost the first down rate battle by -2.82%, but had another 3 touchdowns of 35+ yards that led to the victory.
Big plays and turnover margins tend to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, so the Jets are not going to always be able to rely on those. In their 3 losses, they are -1 in turnovers and don’t have a single play longer than 44 yards. On the season, their offense has really struggled to move the ball, moving the chains at a 31.31% rate, 28th in the NFL. They are also dead last in red zone touchdown percentage, scoring primarily from outside of the 20 on big plays. Their defense is solid, ranking 9th at 34.20%, but their offensive struggles have them 24th overall in first down rate differential at -2.89%.
The Colts aren’t much better, especially with all of the players they are missing due to injury (top receiver TY Hilton, starting tight end Jack Doyle, starting defensive lineman Denico Autry, starting safety Clayton Geathers and his backup Matthias Farley), but the Jets aren’t healthy either with their top-2 cornerbacks Trumaine Johnson and Buster Skrine out and top running back Isaiah Crowell expected to be a gametime call, so the Colts have a good chance to come in and pull off the upset.
The Colts are also in a better spot, with another easy game against the Bills on deck. The Jets, on the other hand, have to turn around and face a tough Minnesota team, a game they will almost definitely be underdogs in. Underdogs are 81-48 ATS since 2014 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. There’s not quite enough here to bet the Colts as just 2-point underdogs when they are this banged up, but the money line is worth a small bet because the Colts are no worse than 50/50 to win this game.
Indianapolis Colts 23 New York Jets 20 Upset Pick +110
Pick against the spread: Indianapolis +2