San Francisco 49ers (1-4) at Green Bay Packers (3-2)
The Packers lost last week in Detroit, but they still won the first down rate battle by +4.82% and had 30 first downs to 18 for the Lions. They lost because of 4 missed field goals and 3 lost fumbles, but still managed to keep it an 8-point game, so they could have easily won if they didn’t make so many mistakes. This week, they return home, where they have been much better in recent years, going 36-17 ATS at home in games started and finished by Aaron Rodgers since 2011.
The Packers also have a much easier opponent this week, as the 49ers are one of the worst teams in the league without Jimmy Garoppolo, and the Packers are in a great spot going into a bye. Favorites of 6 or more tend to take care of business going into a bye, going 38-16 ATS since 2014, including 28-11 ATS at home. The Packers are favored by 9.5 here, but, considering how bad the 49ers are, I think that line is short and we are getting good line value with the hosts, who could easily be favored by 12-13 points in this one. The Packers should win this one with ease and cover in the process.
Green Bay Packers 31 San Francisco 49ers 16
Pick against the spread: Green Bay -9.5