Detroit Lions (2-3) at Miami Dolphins (4-2)
The Lions are coming off of a bye and teams tend to do well as significant road favorites after a bye, going 25-9 ATS as road favorites of 3+ since 2008. The Dolphins faced a Bears team in the same spot last week though and pulled the upset as 7-point underdogs. That’s probably partially because the Bears were expecting to face regular Dolphins starter Ryan Tannehill, who was surprisingly ruled out Sunday morning, after suffering a setback to his shoulder injury at practice the previous Friday.
Instead, the Bears faced Brock Osweiler, who has shown in the past he can play well when teams aren’t expecting to face him, playing arguably his best game of the past 3 seasons as a mid-game injury replacement last year with the Broncos against the Colts. With the Lions having a full week to prepare for him, I would be surprised if Osweiler didn’t regress this week, even with the Lions having an underwhelming defense.
The Dolphins are getting some starters back on defense for this one, with defensive end Cameron Wake and cornerback Bobby McCain returning to practice this week after missing the past two games and practicing in full on Friday, but the Lions are getting healthier too, with right guard TJ Lang returning after the bye and defensive end Ezekiel Ansah possibly playing for the first time since week 1. There isn’t enough line value to take the Lions as 3 point road favorites, but this should be able to win this one with relative ease.
Detroit Lions 26 Miami Dolphins 20
Pick against the spread: Detroit -3