Year: 2018

Arizona Cardinals at Kansas City Chiefs: 2018 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (2-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (8-1)

The Cardinals have been pretty terrible this season, but their offense looked much better in their first game under new offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich and it wouldn’t surprise me if they were better in their first game out of the bye as well, with Leftwich now having another 2 weeks on the job. The schedule doesn’t do them any favors, as they have to head to Kansas City to play the AFC leading Chiefs, but they could definitely keep this game closer than the 16.5 point spread because the Chiefs are in a major look ahead spot, with a trip to Mexico City to play the NFC leading Rams on deck.

Teams tend to struggle before international games like that anyway, but the Chiefs are especially in a tough spot because of how big that game is going to be for them. Favorites of 12+ are just 18-37 ATS since 2002 before being underdogs. The Cardinals, meanwhile, have arguably their easiest game of the season on deck, as they host the Raiders next week, a game in which they will almost definitely be favored. Underdogs are 86-53 ATS since 2014 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. Coming out of a bye with an easy game on deck, the Cardinals should be fully focused for this game against one of the NFL’s best, while the Chiefs could easily not give their best effort and let the Cardinals hang around.

The Cardinals wouldn’t be the first team the Chiefs have let hang around. In fact, if the Chiefs were to cover this 16.5 point spread, it would be their 2nd biggest margin of victory of the season. They obviously have an incredible offense, but their defense ranks 30th in first down rate allowed at 42.19% and could allow the Cardinals to move the ball with ease in garbage time and keep this one within the 16.5 points. This isn’t a huge play because of the significant talent disparity between these two teams, but this should be closer than expected.

Kansas City Chiefs 34 Arizona Cardinals 21

Pick against the spread: Arizona +16.5

Confidence: Medium

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts: 2018 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (3-5) at Indianapolis Colts (3-5)

The Colts are high on my underrated list coming out of their bye. They are just 3-5, but they are positive in both point differential (+18) and first down rate differential (+0.91%), despite being arguably the most injury plagued team in the league in the first half of the season. Left tackle Anthony Castonzo, running back Marlon Mack, tight end Jack Doyle, wide receivers TY Hilton and Ryan Grant, safeties Malik Hooker and Clayton Geathers, cornerbacks Nate Hairston and Kenny Moore, defensive linemen Margus Hunt, Denico Autry, and Tyquan Lewis, and linebacker Darius Leonard have all missed time with injury so far this season, but this week the only player of note on the Colts’ injury report is Mike Mitchell, who is no longer needed with Geathers healthy. As long as they stay healthy, this is a playoff caliber team and should play like one for the second half of the season, even if they ultimately end up not being able to make it into the playoff picture after a slow start.

On the other side, the Jaguars have had an incredibly disappointing season, given their pre-season expectations. Some expect their offense to be noticeably improved with running back Leonard Fournette finally returning from injury, but the running game hasn’t been their problem (4.25 yards per carry on the season). Blake Bortles has regressed after a decent season in 2017 and he gets little help from his receiving corps and offensive line, the latter of which has struggled mightily to pass protect with their 3rd string left tackle forced into action due to injury. Their defense has still played well, but not as well as last season and they are missing cornerback AJ Bouye and possibly linebacker Telvin Smith for this one, after being one of the healthiest defenses in the league in 2017.

The Jaguars are a significant step below the Colts right now, but this line is not indicative of that, as the general public hasn’t paid much attention to the Colts’ rapidly improving injury situation. After opening at -3.5, this line has dropped to -3 and even -2.5 in some places. Three is an incredibly key number (about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal), so 2.5 is a much more valuable line, even if you have to pay a little extra juice. Even at -3, the Colts are a smart pick this week, as they should be favored by at least a touchdown here at home.

Indianapolis Colts 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 16

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -2.5

Confidence: High

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears: 2018 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (3-5) at Chicago Bears (5-3)

The Bears are quietly one of the better teams in the league. They’re only 5-3, but their 3 losses came by a combined 11 points and they actually won the first down rate battle in 2 of those 3 losses. On the season, they rank 3rd in point differential at +82 and 1st in first down rate differential at +7.69%. Their defense is arguably the best in the NFL and their offense gives them enough to win most weeks. They’ve played an easy schedule recently, playing the Jets and Bills back-to-back weeks, but they were pretty dominant in both games, despite being without top wide receiver Allen Robinson and top edge rusher Khalil Mack with injury.

Robinson and Mack are expected back this week, after the Bears were cautious with them against easier opponents. The Lions are a step up in class, but not by a ton, as they’ve lost a lot of talent in recent weeks. After trading away talented slot receiver Golden Tate to the Eagles at the trade deadline last week, the Lions then lost both cornerback Darius Slay and right guard TJ Lang, two of their better players, to injury last week in a rough performance on the road in Minnesota.

That loss last week pushed the Lions to 19-37-2 ATS and 19-39 against winning opponents since Matt Stafford’s first full season in 2011. They have really struggled against top level teams like the Bears, most recently going 1-11 against playoff teams between 2016 and 2017. They beat the Patriots and Packers this year, but the Patriots were not in mid-season form at that point (they lost to the Jaguars the week before), while the Packers would have won if Mason Crosby hadn’t had the worst game of his life (and the Packers might not end up as a playoff team anyway). There’s a big talent gap between these two teams right now and this line, even though it’s shifted from 4 on the early line last week to 6.5 this week, still doesn’t show that talent gap properly. The Bears should be able to win this one with ease.

Chicago Bears 24 Detroit Lions 13

Pick against the spread: Chicago -6.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Carolina Panthers at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2018 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (6-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2-1)

Typically the rule of thumb for betting Thursday Night Football is to take the home team as long as they are comparable to or better than their opponents and as long as it’s not a division game. Non-divisional home favorites are 33-15 ATS all-time on Thursday nights. That makes a lot of sense, as it’s very tough for a team to travel on a short week and face an unfamiliar opponent unless you happen to have a significant talent advantage over that opponent. That favors the Steelers here on Thursday Night Football.

The line movement favors the Steelers as well, as this line has shifted from 6.5 on the early line last week to 5 where it opened to now down to 3.5 in some places. Unfortunately, I still don’t think we’re getting a good line with the Steelers, unless this line happens to continue falling to an even field goal, which I think is unlikely. I have these two teams about even right now, suggesting the Steelers should be favored by a field goal at home. They have a bigger homefield advantage on a short week, but there’s just not enough here for the Steelers to be worth a bet.

Pittsburgh Steelers 31 Carolina Panthers 26

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh -3.5

Confidence: Low

2018 Week 9 NFL Pick Results

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Week 9

Total Against the Spread: 8-5

Pick of the Week: 0-1

High Confidence Picks: 1-0

Medium Confidence Picks: 0-2

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 1-3

Low Confidence Picks: 2-1

No Confidence Picks: 5-1

Upset Picks: 2-1

2018

Total Against the Spread: 81-50-3 (61.57%)

Pick of the Week: 4-4-1

High Confidence Picks: 8-6

Medium Confidence Picks: 24-14

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 36-24-1 (59.83%)

Low Confidence Picks: 16-12

No Confidence Picks: 29-14-2

Upset Picks: 12-10-1

All-Time (Since 2013)

Total Against the Spread: 772-658-39 (53.88%)

Pick of the Week: 55-38-3 (58.85%)

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 366-270-15 (57.37%)

Upset Picks: 119-146-1 (44.92%)

Tennessee Titans at Dallas Cowboys: 2018 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (3-4) at Dallas Cowboys (3-4)

These two teams are pretty similar, both with strong defenses and weak offenses. The Cowboys rank 25th in first down rate at 33.81% and 4th in first down rate allowed at 31.47%, while the Titans rank 29th in first down rate at 30.17% and 7th in first down rate allowed at 33.10%. The Cowboys get a bit of a boost coming out of the bye from their trade for ex-Raider wide receiver Amari Cooper, but Cooper has been pretty underwhelming the past couple of seasons and has only been with the organization for a week and a half, so there could definitely be growing pains in his first game.

The Cowboys are a little better and this line is appropriate at Dallas -5, but I prefer the underdogs in what should be a close, low scoring game. The Titans have a tough upcoming home game against the Patriots next week, but the Cowboys are also in a tough spot with a trip to Philadelphia on deck. This is a no confidence pick because there really isn’t much here, but I like the points for pick ‘em purposes.

Dallas Cowboys 17 Tennessee Titans 13

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +5

Confidence: None

Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints: 2018 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (8-0) at New Orleans Saints (6-1)

I’ve bet on the Saints every week since week 3, after they got off to one of their typical slow starts (2-12 ATS in the first 2 games of the season since 2012, 55-38 ATS after week 2), and they’ve covered in all 5 games, after failing to cover in their first two. That being said, it’s a lot harder being confident in the Saints this week, as 1.5 point home underdogs against the undefeated Rams. I have this line calculated at New Orleans -2, but any line value within the 3s is not terribly valuable, given how few games are decided by 3 points or fewer.

The Saints are an obvious top-5 team this year and could easily win this game at home, but the Rams are also a step up in class and it’s hard to be confident betting against them in a game they basically just have to win to cover, especially with talented slot receiver Cooper Kupp returning from a two game absence. I’m taking the Saints, who are in a great spot with only a trip to Cincinnati on deck after arguably their biggest game of the season this week (home underdogs are 23-9 ATS since 2014 before being road favorites), but this is a low confidence pick.

New Orleans Saints 26 Los Angeles Rams 24 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: New Orleans +1.5

Confidence: Low

Chicago Bears at Buffalo Bills: 2018 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (4-3) at Buffalo Bills (2-6)

If the Bills’ quarterback situation went from bad to worse when rookie quarterback Josh Allen got hurt, forcing them to start to street free agent Derek Anderson in his absence, then I’m not sure what the phrase is to describe what happened to their quarterback situation when Anderson suffered a concussion late in his second start last week, forcing to the Bills to turn to 2017 5th round pick Nathan Peterman as their starter this week. Peterman has completed just 45.7% of his 81 career pass attempts in 2 seasons in the league, for an average of 4.44 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions and has proven on numerous occasions he does not belong on an NFL field at this stage of his career.

Peterman has been so bad that even the Bills, who have been high on him since drafting him and even started him week 1 this year, decided that signing Anderson as a free agent and starting him after less than a week with the organization was a better idea than going back to Peterman. Peterman also will not get any help from his supporting cast on easily the worst offense in the NFL, which ranks dead last, picking up a first down or touchdown on a pathetic 25.42% of offensive snaps.

Making matters worse for Peterman this week, he faces arguably the toughest defense in the NFL with the Chicago Bears coming to town. The Bears are just 4-3, but their 3 losses came by a combined 11 points and they actually won the first down rate battle in 2 of those 3 losses. On the season, they rank 6th in point differential at +50 and 2nd in first down rate differential at +8.03%. They should be able to go into Buffalo and give them their 6th double digit loss of the season and 11th in their last 12 losses, but I’m not confident in them because they’re pretty banged up.

Not only is right guard Kyle Long out for the rest of the regular season, but they could also opt to hold out wide receiver Allen Robinson and edge rusher Khalil Mack against a weak opponent, like they did last week at home against the Jets. The Bills’ offense is horrendous and is probably more likely to allow a defensive touchdown than score an offensive one, but they have a capable defense that could make this one close if the Bears aren’t at 100% and aren’t focused against a weak opponent.

Chicago Bears 20 Buffalo Bills 9

Pick against the spread: Chicago -10

Confidence: None

Houston Texans at Denver Broncos: 2018 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (5-3) at Denver Broncos (3-5)

Earlier in the week, I would have probably taken the Broncos in this one, as I had these two teams about even in my rankings, following Houston’s loss of wide receiver Will Fuller for the season with a torn ACL, and the Broncos are favored by just 1 point at home. However, then the Demaryius Thomas trade happened, with the former Pro-Bowl wide receiver going to Houston from Denver for a 4th round pick in a deadline deal.

That doesn’t move the needle much in either direction for either team right away, as the Broncos have a great internal replacement for Thomas in second round rookie Courtland Sutton and Thomas will likely be limited in his first game in Houston, without much knowledge of the playbook. Thomas also hasn’t played at his peak level in years, now in his age 31 season. However, he will bring knowledge of the Broncos’ playbook, which could be invaluable for the Texans this week. For that reason, I’m taking the Texans, but I can’t be confident in them given that we’re getting no line value with them.

Houston Texans 21 Denver Broncos 20

Pick against the spread: Houston +1

Confidence: None