Chicago Bears (0-1) at Denver Broncos (0-1)

I expected the Bears to decline in win total coming into the season, but the primary reason for that was simply that they’re going to face a much tougher schedule in 2019, after facing one of the easiest last season. The Bears lost a tough game at home to the Packers to open their season last season, but they get a much easier game this week in Denver. The Broncos looked like an underwhelming team on paper coming into the season and their week 1 loss in Oakland doesn’t help matters. They’re also missing two of their top off-season additions due to injury, with both slot cornerback Bryce Callahan and right tackle Ja’Wuan James out for this game. 

The Bears took care of business against most of their weak opponents last season, going 10-3 with a +129 point differential and an average margin of victory of 13.6 points per game against non-playoff teams, and I expect them to be able to do so again this season, especially with no upcoming distractions (they face the Redskins next week). As mere 2-point road favorites in Denver, the Bears basically just need to win to cover here, so they’re worth a bet. With the Broncos current injury situation, I have this line calculated at Chicago -3.5, which isn’t a ton of line value, but it crosses the key number of 3. The Bears should be able to win at least by a field goal. 

Chicago Bears 19 Denver Broncos 13

Pick against the spread: Chicago -2

Confidence: Medium