Dallas Cowboys (1-0) at Washington Redskins (0-1)
The Redskins made some big plays early last week against the Eagles and shockingly jumped out to a 17-0 lead, but they couldn’t do much from there, as the Eagles went up 32-20 before the Redskins led a garbage time touchdown drive at the end of the game. Even with the garbage time touchdown included, the Redskins finished the week with the 7th worst first down rate differential at 6.11% and still look likely to finish as one of the worst teams in the league. Not helping matters is the Redskins’ injury situation, with cornerback Quinton Dunbar and defensive end Jonathan Allen likely joining cornerback Fabian Moreau, who missed week 1, on the sidelines.
The Cowboys faced another one of the likely worst teams in the league last season, blowing out the Giants 35-17. They also have another really easy game on deck, as they host the Dolphins next week, so they should be fully focused. Favorites of 6 or more are 99-63 ATS since 2014 before being favored by 6 or more again. We’re not getting great line value with the Cowboys at -6.5, but I have this line calculated at -9.5, so the Cowboys should be able to take care of business here, without any upcoming distractions on deck. This game is unlikely to be close barring another garbage time touchdown.
Dallas Cowboys 30 Washington Redskins 20
Pick against the spread: Dallas -6.5