New York Giants (0-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1)

The Buccaneers pulled the upset win in Carolina last week on Thursday Night Football, but that was more about the struggles of Cam Newton and the Panthers’ offense. Clearly playing at less than 100% through a foot injury, Newton was wildly inaccurate last week, constantly missing receivers that would come open against the Buccaneers’ defense. He did not look comfortable planting and throwing on his injured foot and did not take off and run at all either. And despite that, the Panthers still had a chance to win the game at the end, so I think the Buccaneers are a little overrated coming off of that win.

The Buccaneers are also in a bad spot this week, with a much tougher game on deck in Los Angeles against the Rams, a game in which they will almost definitely be big underdogs. Favorites of 6+ are just 33-62 ATS since 2008 before being underdogs of 6+ the following week. On the other side, the Giants are expected to be home favorites next week against the Redskins. Underdogs are 96-56 ATS since 2014 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. We’re not getting great line value with the Giants (I have this line calculated at Tampa Bay -5) and I’m not sure how Daniel Jones will perform in his first career start, but the Buccaneers are unlikely to give their best effort against an underwhelming opponent with a much tougher game on deck, so I like the Giants chances of covering as 6-point underdogs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 New York Giants 24

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +6

Confidence: Medium