Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers: 2019 Week 4 NFL Pick

Philadelphia Eagles (1-2) at Green Bay Packers (3-0)

Typically, playing on a short week benefits the home team significantly, as they don’t have to travel, which gives them more preparation time on a short week. There are a couple exceptions. The first exception is when it’s a divisional matchup, as teams tend to be much more familiar with divisional opponents than non-divisional opponents and not need as much preparation. The second exception is when the road team is better than the home team, as better teams tend to handle the short week better. 

None of those exceptions are in play this week, as the Packers are favored here at home against an Eagles team who they haven’t played since 2016. Non-divisional home favorites are 35-15 ATS all-time on Thursday Night Football (excluding week 1), so the Packers should have a good chance to cover this spread. They’ve also been a dominant home team with Aaron Rodgers under center over the past decade or so, going 40-19 ATS at home in games Aaron Rodgers has started and finished since 2011. 

Unfortunately, we’re not getting any line value with the Packers, with this line shifting from Green Bay -3 on the early line last week to now Green Bay -5 this week. The line moved because the Eagles lost at home to the Lions, but the Lions are an underrated team who can be a legitimate playoff contender in the NFC and the Eagles actually won the first down rate battle in that game by 6.23%. 

Now the Eagles seem to be underrated. I’ve liked the Packers since the off-season and I think they’re one of the top few teams in the league, but I still have this line calculated at only Green Bay -4. The homefield advantage on a short week should help them significantly, but it wouldn’t surprise me if this ended up being a really close game, so I’m probably not going to bet on Green Bay at -5. I may reconsider tomorrow. I am also locking in a couple picks I love this week before the lines move. One of those games is likely to be my Pick of the Week.

CLE +7 @ BAL

DET +7 vs. KC

Final Update: Za’Darius Smith is questionable after suffering a hamstring injury in practice on Tuesday. He’s expected to play, but could be limited. The free agent acquisition been one of the best edge defenders in the league thus far this season and he’s been a big part of why the Packers have been so good defensively this year, so it would definitely hurt the Packers if he couldn’t play at full strength. I’m going to leave this as a low confidence pick, even though the Packers are in a great spot.

Green Bay Packers 24 Philadelphia Eagles 17

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -5

Confidence: Low

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