New York Giants (2-5) at Detroit Lions (2-3-1)
This one is a tough call. On one hand, the Lions are favored by 6.5 points and have yet to beat a team convincingly, with both of their wins coming by a field goal. They have a decent 2-3-1 record, but they have just a -11 point differential even with a +4 turnover margin. No team with a worse point differential has better than a +2 turnover margin and turnover margins tend to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. In terms of first down rate differential, they rank 3rd at -3.17%. On top of that, they are also missing top cornerback Darius Slay.
The Giants aren’t exactly a tough opponent though, ranking 26th in my roster rankings, and, even with the Lions being underwhelming thus far this season, I still have this line calculated at Detroit -5. We’re getting some line value with the Giants, but not a significant amount, and the Giants are also in a tough spot, with a bigger game against the Cowboys on deck. Teams tend to struggle before big home games, going 42-74 ATS since 2014 before being home underdogs of 6+ and the Cowboys are currently -7.5 on the early line. Underdogs of 6+ are also just 58-90 ATS since 2014 before being underdogs of 6+ again, as it’s tough for an inferior team to hang with a superior team if they have another tough game on deck. I’m taking the Giants, but for a no confidence pick, as it would hardly be a surprise to see the Lions win by a touchdown.
Detroit Lions 26 New York Giants 20
Pick against the spread: NY Giants +6.5