Chicago Bears (3-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-4)
The Bears seemed to have a statement win week 4 over the division rival Vikings, but they’ve lost three straight games since then and now have matched their loss total from all of last season. It’s not exactly a surprise the Bears have regressed this season, after facing one of the easiest schedules in the league last season and losing a pair of valuable defensive backs (Adrian Amos and Bryce Callahan) and their defensive coordinator Vic Fangio (now head coach of the Broncos) this off-season.
Also missing stud defensive lineman Akiem Hicks for the year with injury, the Bears have fallen from their dominant 2018 unit, ranking 8th in first down rate allowed. Their offense, meanwhile, has gotten worse play from both their quarterback Mitch Trubisky and their offensive line and none of their skill position players aside from Allen Robinson have done much this season. Overall, they rank just 23rd in first down rate differential and 22nd in my roster rankings, suggesting their record is not a fluke.
The Eagles have also disappointed this season, sitting at 4-4, but they’re getting healthier. Cornerbacks Ronald Darby, Jalen Mills, and Avonte Maddox will all be active for the first time this season, while defensive tackle Timmy Jernigan and wide receiver DeSean Jackson look likely to join them. They’re still without left tackle Jason Peters and outside linebacker Nigel Bradham, but the former has been replaced by first round pick Andre Dillard, while the latter was off to a poor start to the season before his injury. The Eagles, who are coming off of their best game of the season in Buffalo last week, have a significant talent edge in this game and should be favored by more than 4 points at home. I have this line calculated at Philadelphia -7.5, so we’re getting enough line value to bet the Eagles confidently.
Philadelphia Eagles 26 Chicago Bears 19
Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -4