Dallas Cowboys (4-3) at New York Giants (2-6)
The Giants are just 2-6, but I like their chances of being a competitive team down the stretch. They’ve been without one or more of Saquon Barkley, Golden Tate, Evan Engram, and Sterling Shepard in every game thus far this season, but this week they are all active. They also have no major injuries on defense (and got better defensively at the trade deadline with the acquisition of Leonard Williams) and are one of the healthiest teams in the league overall right now.
Despite some early season injuries, the Giants actually rank 18th in first down rate differential at -0.80%, with their 2-6 record largely being a product of their -9 turnover margin, 3rd worst in the NFL. Turnover margins tend to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, however, and if a healthy Giants team can play turnover neutral football going forward, they won’t be an easy team to beat.
If the Giants were playing a team other than the Cowboys, I likely would have placed a large bet on them this week, but the Cowboys are also underrated. The narrative on them used to be that they could only beat bad teams, but they blew out the Eagles a couple weeks ago before their bye and the Eagles subsequently blew out the Bills in Buffalo last week. The Cowboys did lose to the Jets three weeks ago, but their other two losses came to the Saints and Packers, who are a combined 14-2, and the Cowboys actually won the first down rate battle in both of those games.
On the season, the Cowboys rank 4th in point differential at +66, despite an even turnover margin, and they rank 3rd in first down rate differential at +7.07%, only behind the Patriots and 49ers. Despite a less than stellar record, the Cowboys have been one of the better teams in the league this season and, not only are they healthy coming out of their bye, they’re also in a great spot, as teams are 39-11 ATS since 2002 as favorites of 3.5+ after a bye, including 15-3 ATS against a divisional opponent. We’re getting a little bit of line value with the Giants, as I have this line calculated at Dallas -6.5, but that’s hardly anything, so I’m following the trend and taking the Cowboys for pick ‘em purposes.
Dallas Cowboys 31 New York Giants 23
Pick against the spread: Dallas -7