Denver Broncos (3-6) at Minnesota Vikings (7-3)
The Vikings are in a great spot this week, favored by 10 points at home going into their bye week, as large favorites tend to take care of business at home before a week off. Since 2002, home favorites of 6+ are 49-17 ATS before a regular season bye. Unfortunately, the Vikings are going into their bye week pretty shorthanded, which could really hurt their chances of covering this big spread. Still without Pro-Bowl wide receiver Adam Theilen due to injury, the Vikings’ offense will also be without starting right guard Josh Kline this week, a blow to an already underwhelming offensive line. On defense, talented safety Anthony Harris will join key run stuffing defensive tackle Linval Joseph on the sidelines this week. Missing those four key players, we’re not getting any line value with the Vikings this week.
The Broncos are 3-6 and starting third string quarterback Brandon Allen, but they’re better than that suggests. Their offense has significant problems, with Allen under center, top offensive lineman Ja’Wuan James out indefinitely with injury, and top wide receiver Emmnauel Sanders traded to the 49ers, but their defense is legitimately one of the best in the NFL, ranking 3rd in first down rate allowed at 31.71%, only behind the Patriots and 49ers. They’ve allowed just 13 offensive touchdowns in 9 games, led by defensive minded head coach Vic Fangio. Their defense could easily keep this game competitive against a banged up Vikings team. We’re not getting enough line value with the Broncos to pick them against such a strong trend on the Vikings’ side (my calculated line is Minnesota -8.5), but this is a no confidence pick either way.
Minnesota Vikings 24 Denver Broncos 13
Pick against the spread: Minnesota -10