San Francisco 49ers (12-3) at Seattle Seahawks (11-4)
The Seahawks have been overrated for most of the season, as 10 of their 11 wins have come by 8 points or fewer. Last week, they got embarrassed at home in a 27-13 loss to the last place Cardinals, pushing their record on the season in games decided by more than a score down to 1-3 and their point differential down to +12, worst ever for a 11-4 team. Last week’s loss might have swung them to underrated a little bit, however, as this line has shifted significantly in the past week, going from even on the early line last week to San Francisco -3.5 this week, a huge swing considering 1 in 4 games are decided by 3 points or fewer.
The Seahawks played badly last week, but that was their worst game of the season and the absences of left tackle Duane Brown, cornerback Shaq Griffin, cornerback Quandre Diggs, and defensive end Jadeveon Clowney were a huge part of the reason why they struggled. Brown is their top left tackle, Griffin and Diggs are their top defensive backs, and Clowney is their best defensive lineman, so those were huge absences.
Brown and Diggs remain out and running back Chris Carson joins them, but Clowney and Griffin return, giving the Seahawks a big defensive boost and the Seahawks signed free agent Marshawn Lynch, who is a solid replacement for Carson. Casual bettors might not pay attention injuries or may underestimate their impact, so just like the Seahawks were overrated last week, they may be underrated this week. Even if they are not underrated, they’ve historically bounced back really well off of losses in the Russell Wilson era, going 27-11 ATS, including 7-3 ATS with 6 straight up wins in 10 games as underdogs.
The 49ers also have their own injury problems, missing defensive end Dee Ford, linebacker Kwon Alexander, defensive end Ronald Blair, center Weston Richburg, safety Jacquiski Tartt, among other less important players. They haven’t been quite the same since their win in New Orleans, largely due to injury absences, and yet they’re favored by 3.5 points in this matchup. I don’t think there’s quite enough here for the Seahawks to be worth betting, but I like their chances of bouncing back and at least keeping this one close.
San Francisco 49ers 24 Seattle Seahawks 23
Pick against the spread: Seattle +3.5