Indianapolis Colts (0-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0)
This is the biggest line of the opening week, with the Colts favored by 8 points on the road in Jacksonville, but I don’t think this line is high enough. Not only will the Jaguars barely have any homefield advantage with limited fans, but there’s a massive talent gap between these two teams. The Colts were just a middling team last season, finishing 16th in the NFL in first down rate differential at 0.79%, but they get a significant upgrade at quarterback going from Jacoby Brissett to Philip Rivers, they get TY Hilton back healthy after an injury riddled 2019 season, and they added a massive upgrade on defense in DeForest Buckner, who they acquired via trade from the 49ers.
The Jaguars, meanwhile, finished last season dead last in first down rate differential at -6.64%, got substantially worse after trading away Jalen Ramsey, with a -9.00% first down rate differential from week 7 on, and they shed even more talent this off-season, including key players like Calais Campbell and Yannick Ngakoue. On paper, they are the worst team in the league, while the Colts rank in the top-5 in my roster rankings. Given that and the lack of homefield advantage, this line should be closer to Indianapolis -12, so they’re worth a bet at -8.
Indianapolis Colts 30 Jacksonville Jaguars 17
Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -8