Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots: 2020 Week 1 NFL Pick

Miami Dolphins (0-0) at New England Patriots (0-0)

These two teams went in opposite directions talent wise this off-season. The Patriots most obvious loss was quarterback Tom Brady, but Brady showed decline last season and could be adequately replaced by a healthy Cam Newton. The Patriots’ bigger concern is on defense. The Patriots had far and away the best defense in the league last season, finishing with a 29.64% first down rate allowed, significantly better than even the 2nd ranked Steelers, who allowed a 32.43% first down rate, but they only return 5 of their top-11 in snaps played from last season’s defense.

The Patriots lost a pair of players to opt outs (Dont’a Hightower and Patrick Chung), a trio to free agency (Kyle Van Noy, Jamie Collins, and Danny Shelton), and another in Duron Harmon who was traded. Harmon and Chung can be replaced effectively by free agent acquisition Adrian Phillips and rookie Kyle Dugger and the Patriots have great coaching and still have a good amount of talent, including promising young players like Chase Winovich, Jawhaun Bentley, and Josh Uche who could breakout in a significant role, but there’s no doubt the Patriots are worse on defense. 

On offense, Cam Newton will benefit from a healthier offensive line than Tom Brady had last season and a healthier Julian Edelman as well, but the Patriots did lose right tackle Marcus Cannon to an opt out and still don’t have proven skill position talent behind Edelman, which was a big part of the reason why they finished just 21st in first down rate last season. The Dolphins, meanwhile, added talent on both sides of the ball, adding much needed serviceable running backs and offensive linemen and adding key defenders like former Byron Jones and Patriot Kyle Van Noy, and are looking to improve on their 5-11 record from last season.

All that being said, I think there’s still a big gap between these two teams talent wise. The Patriots are unlikely to be a great offense, but there’s enough talent on their defense that they could be able to be at least above average on that side of the ball, especially if young players are coached up and come along in significant roles, while the Dolphins are starting with a lower floor than most realize. They did manage 5 wins last season, but they were consistently blown out and finished 30th in first down rate differential at -5.49% and last in point differential at -188. 

That’s despite the fact that they got close to a career year from quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, who single handedly won at least a couple games last season. Now in his age 38 season, Fitzpatick is unlikely to be as good and it’ll be hard for rookie Tua Tagovailoa to be as good as Fitzpatrick was last season either, whenever he is able to take the field. The Dolphins are a more complete football team, but might not necessarily win more games. I still have 7 points between these two teams in my roster rankings and even though the Patriots won’t have fans in the stands, we’re still getting some line value with them as just 6.5-point home favorites. This isn’t one I would bet, but I like the Patriots for pick ‘em purposes.

New England Patriots 24 Miami Dolphins 16

Pick against the spread: New England -6.5

Confidence: Low

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