Minnesota Vikings (0-1) at Indianapolis Colts (0-1)

Both of these teams had disappointing opening weeks, with the Vikings losing at home to the division rival Packers and the Colts losing on the road to the Jaguars by a slim margin in a big upset. For the Vikings, all of their problems were on defense, as they allowed the Packers to pick up first downs at a 47.37% rate, the 5th highest mark of the week. The Vikings were actually one of the four teams ahead of them though, even though they ultimately lost the game.

In fact, the Vikings led the week with a ridiculous 59.18% first down rate, picking up 25 first downs and scoring 4 offensive touchdowns, on just 49 offensive plays. The Packers’ offensive display was more impressive on the scoreboard, but they went 6 of 11 on third downs, they won the turnover battle by 1, and, while the Vikings failed on their only 4th down attempt, the Packers went 1 for 2, with their one failure coming on the goal line and leading almost immediately to a safety and re-gained position.

The Vikings were still able to put up 34 points despite running 27 fewer plays because they were hyper-efficient on 1st and 2nd down, winning the yards per play battle significantly as well (7.8 to 6.9) and needing to run just 6 third down plays (3 for 6) all game, by far the fewest in the league last week (next closest was 9). Turnover margin and third/fourth down conversion rates tend to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, so it bodes well for the Vikings’ offensive chances that they were able to be that efficient on early downs against a capable defense. The Vikings have obvious issues on defense and those should continue at least until edge defender Danielle Hunter returns from injury, but their offense looks more than capable of winning shootouts in the meantime.

On the other side, the Colts disappointed on both sides of the ball in Jacksonville, but they lost the turnover margin by -2, something that won’t happen every week, and that week 1 result is probably the one we’ll most look back on as a fluke at the end of the season. The Colts were just a middling team last year, but they get an upgrade under center (even if Rivers isn’t what he was, he should be better than Brissett), they get their top wide receiver back from injury in TY Hilton, and they add a much needed stud defensive lineman in DeForest Buckner, so they should end up being noticeably improved this season when all is said and done, even if they didn’t gel right away with a new quarterback after a short off-season.

In my roster rankings, I give the Colts a 4-point edge over the Vikings and their banged up defense, so we’re getting some line value with the Colts as just 3-point home favorites. The Vikings have the offensive firepower to keep things close and even pull off the upset, especially if the Colts are still feeling the effects of installing a new quarterback on a shortened off-season, but I think there’s enough here for the Colts to be worth a small bet in a game they should win and only need to win by 3 to at least push.

Indianapolis Colts 30 Minnesota Vikings 24

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -3

Confidence: Medium