Indianapolis Colts (2-1) at Chicago Bears (3-0)
The Colts surprisingly lost week one in Jacksonville, but that was a close game that swung on the Colts -2 turnover margin, which is not a predictable metric on a week-to-week basis. In two games since, the Colts have dominated the Vikings and Jets, winning by a combined 46 points, and now lead the league in first down rate differential (+8.81%), and DVOA as well. They haven’t faced a tough schedule, but I had them as a top-5 team entering the season and I don’t see any reason to change that, especially if they continue to avoid the major injuries that have plagued much of the league. The Colts aren’t fully 100%, but they still rank 2nd overall in my roster rankings right now.
The Bears have also gotten off to a good start at 3-0, but they haven’t won any of their games convincingly, with their biggest margin of victory being 4 points and two of their three wins coming in improbable last second comebacks. They actually have a negative first down rate differential at -0.49%%, despite their record, and they rank middle of the pack in my roster rankings as well, even without major injuries. I have this line calculated at Indianapolis -4.5, so I like the value we’re getting with them at -2.5 a lot, as it crosses the key number of three and the lesser key number of 4. The Colts should win this game with relative ease, especially with the Bears lacking normal homefield advantage, so they’re a good bet if you can get them as favorites of less than a field goal.
Indianapolis Colts 23 Chicago Bears 17
Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -2.5