Atlanta Falcons (0-3) at Green Bay Packers (3-0)
The Packers won last week in New Orleans to push their record to 3-0. Making that more impressive is the fact that they were without top wide receiver Davante Adams and top defensive lineman Kenny Clark, who has actually missed each of the past two seasons. Both players are expected to return this week after getting limited practices in every day this week, but that’s not a guarantee and the Packers have other key players who are questionable, with both center Corey Linsley and cornerback Jaire Alexander missing practice on Friday. On top of that, top linebacker Christian Kirksey, blocking tight end Marcedes Lewis, and starting wide receiver Allen Lazard are expected to miss their first game of the season this week.
I can’t bet the Packers confidently given all their injury questions, but if they have most or all of their questionable players in the lineup, I think they’re worth a bet. Not only would we be getting some line value with the Packers (my calculated line is Green Bay -10 if Green Bay’s questionables are active), but the Packers are in a great spot at home as big favorites before a bye. Since 2002, home favorites of 7+ are 63-25 ATS before a bye. I’m leaving this as a low confidence pick for now, but if the Packers are relatively healthy, this line is too low. Even if they’re missing key players, it wouldn’t be a surprise if they were still able to take care of business before a bye against this underwhelming Falcons team.
Update: Both Clark and Adams are out again for the Packers. The line has dropped to 5 to compensate, but my calculated line dropped to 6.5, so we’re not getting much value. The Packers are still my pick, but I’m leaving this as a low confidence pick.
Green Bay Packers 34 Atlanta Falcons 27
Pick against the spread: Green Bay -5