Los Angeles Chargers at New Orleans Saints: 2020 Week 5 NFL Pick

Los Angeles Chargers (1-3) at New Orleans Saints (2-2)

This is one of three games that will be played Monday/Tuesday this week and all three games are impossible to make a call on right now because the status of so many players is unknown. In the other two games (Bills/Titans and Patriots/Broncos) the uncertainty is because otherwise healthy players are on the COVID inactive list and could be activated before the game if they can pass protocol. 

In this game, the uncertainty is because the Saints have several players who could return from injury that are listed questionable and practiced all week, but only in a limited fashion, including top wide receiver Michael Thomas, starting defensive end Marcus Davenport, top cornerback Marshon Lattimore, starting tight end Jared Cook, and starting guard Andrus Peat. This game has a line posted, but it’s impossible to pick a side without knowing the status of the aforementioned players.

If the Saints are relatively healthy, I’ll likely bet on them, possibly for a big play. They’ve gotten off to a slow start this season, but they typically start slow before going on a run (4-17-1 ATS in weeks 1-2 since 2010, as opposed to 86-54-2 in weeks 3-17) and if they’re relatively healthy they’re still among the most talented teams in the league. The Chargers, meanwhile, are beat up on both sides of the ball, missing feature back Austin Ekeler, the right side of their offensive line in Trai Turner and Bryan Bulaga, starting defensive end Melvin Ingram, starting cornerback Chris Harris, and possibly #2 wide receiver Mike Williams, not to mention safety Derwin James and linebacker Drue Tranquill, who have been out all season. 

The Chargers don’t get blown out often (just 2 of their last 14 losses coming by more than one score), so they can keep this game close if the Saints are also going to be banged up, but I like a healthy Saints team to win this game with ease, if that ends up being the case. I’m tentatively on the Saints for a low confidence pick, but I’ll have an update for this on Monday, when I will hopefully have more clarity on the other two games as well.

Final Update: The Saints will have all of the aforementioned questionable players except Michael Thomas, who apparently could have gone but was suspended for a fight in practice. Thomas’ absence will hurt, as will starting cornerback Janoris Jenkins, who was ruled out earlier in the week, but this is arguably as healthy as the Saints have been all season, seeing as their injury problems started in week 1. Despite that, this line has dropped down to a touchdown. The Saints also have one advantage that I didn’t mention above, which is that they are going into a bye and home favorites of 7+ are 63-25 ATS before a bye since 2002.

The Chargers typically play teams close and will have wide receiver Mike Williams active, but they’re still so banged up on both sides of the ball, while the Saints are getting healthy quickly and could easily be starting to go on their annual mid-season run. I have 10 points of separation in my roster rankings between these two teams in their current state, so we’re getting significant line value with the host at only -7 and in a great spot as well. I like this for a high confidence pick.

New Orleans Saints 30 Los Angeles Chargers 17

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -7

Confidence: High

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