Detroit Lions (2-3) at Atlanta Falcons (1-5)
These two teams are pretty similar. Both teams look like middling teams on paper, but have struggled in first down rate differential, with the Falcons ranking 30th at -5.53% and the Lions ranking 28th at -4.83%. Both teams have primarily struggled on defense, ranking 30th and 31st respectively in first down rate allowed, but their offenses have also been disappointing, as they have the offensive talent to be above average on that side of the ball, but have not been thus far. At their best, these are both middling teams that can compensate for a below average defense with an above average offense.
The Lions have a pair of wins, but one came against the Jaguars and the other came by just three points against the Cardinals in a game in which the Lions lost the first down rate battle by 10.50%, but managed to win because of a +3 turnover margin, which isn’t replicable every week. The Falcons, meanwhile, are legitimately a couple plays away from being 3-3, blowing near impossible to blow leads against the Cowboys and Bears, but they lost the first down rate battle against the Cowboys (-10.80%) and against the Vikings last week (-8.56%).
When adjusted for strength of schedule, the Falcons have a decent lead in first down rate differential (-3.47% vs. -5.07%) because they’ve faced a much tougher schedule and they have the slight edge in my roster rankings as well, so they should be considered the better team, even if only by a slim margin. However, this line has it somewhat backwards, favoring the Falcons by just a point at home, suggesting the Lions are the slightly better team. It’s not enough to make the Falcons worth betting, but my calculated line is -3 and the Falcons should have a good chance to cover in a game in which they basically just need to win to cover.
Atlanta Falcons 34 Detroit Lions 31
Pick against the spread: Atlanta -1