Chicago Bears (5-5) at Green Bay Packers (7-3)

The Packers lost in overtime in Indianapolis last week, but the Colts are a solid team and the Packers outplayed them for most of the game, winning the first down rate battle by a pretty substantial 5.76% and only losing because they lost the turnover battle by 2. Turnovers are highly unpredictable on a week-to-week basis, so any team that has a turnover margin of -2 in a game can be expected to be improved in that metric the following week, but that’s especially true for the Packers, who have one of the most careful quarterbacks in the league in Aaron Rodgers.

I would expect better focus this week out of a Packers team that is arguably the best in the NFL when relatively healthy, which they are right now, with key players like wide receiver Davante Adams (2 games missed), running back Aaron Jones (2 games missed), left tackle David Bakhtiari (3 games missed), defensive tackle Kenny Clark (3 games missed), cornerback Jaire Alexander (1 game missed), and safety Darnell Savage (1 game missed) all having returned from injury. The Packers have typically bounced back pretty well off of a loss (38-21 ATS) in the Aaron Rodgers era anyway, as is the case with most teams with high level quarterbacks. 

This line is pretty high, favoring the Packers by 8.5 points, but it’s arguably not high enough, given how bad their opponents are. Everyone knows the Bears’ five wins have all come by one score, including four games that all came down to the final play and a pair of nearly impossible comebacks, but what’s not mentioned enough is that in three of their five losses, they were down by 16 points, 21 points, and 21 points in the 4th quarter before some meaningless late scores, against the Colts, Titans, and Rams, while their 6-point loss to the Vikings came in a game in which the Bears got 8 points of benefit from their special teams. The Packers are as good or better than all of those teams, so it’s going to be very tough for the Bears to be competitive.

In terms of schedule adjusted first down rate differential, the Bears rank 23rd at -1.02% and there is reason to believe they’ll be worse than that going forward. They’ve been very reliant on a defense that ranks 6th in first down rate allowed over expected to cover for an offense that ranks 31st in first down rate over expected, which is a problem because defensive performance is much more inconsistent on a week-to-week basis than offensive performance. If their defense doesn’t play well every week, this team doesn’t have much of a shot to win games and even talented defenses can be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. 

The Bears are also pretty banged up, missing a pair of offensive linemen in left guard James Daniels and right tackle Bobby Massie and possibly a third with left tackle Charles Leno not practicing all week, while their defense could be without key defensive lineman Akiem Hicks, who also didn’t practice. The Bears will also be forced to go back to Mitchell Trubisky at quarterback with Nick Foles out, though with Foles playing like he has, I’m not sure how much that matters. Even with this big line, the Packers are worth a bet. Coming off of a loss, with only another easy game against the Eagles on deck (favorites of 6 or more are 87-55 ATS since 2016 before being favorites of 6 or more again), the Packers should be fully focused to blow out an inferior opponent. If Leno and Hicks are ruled out, I may increase this bet.

Update: Leno will play for the Bears, but Akiem Hicks will be out. Despite that, this line has dropped to 7.5 in most places. My calculated line is Green Bay -10 and that doesn’t even take into account that Aaron Rodgers and company should be fully focused off of a loss. I don’t see this one being close, so I’m upping this bet.

Green Bay Packers 24 Chicago Bears 12

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -7.5

Confidence: High