Dallas Cowboys (3-8) at Baltimore Ravens (6-5)

The Ravens kept the final score closer than expected in Pittsburgh against the Steelers last week, even missing basically half of their team due to COVID or injury, losing by final score of 19-14, but they didn’t play nearly as well as that suggests, as the Steelers made key mistakes in all three phases, dropping 6 passes on offense (including 3 in the red zone), muffing a punt on special teams that led to Baltimore’s first touchdown, and blowing a coverage on defense that led to Baltimore’s second touchdown to make the score respectable late. The Ravens didn’t move the ball consistently all game, managing just 10 first downs and losing the first down rate battle by 10.58%. 

The Ravens will get Lamar Jackson back from COVID this week, but the Ravens are still missing key players due to COVID, including top pass catcher Mark Andrews, starting wide receiver Willie Snead, edge defender Matt Judon, and they were an overrated team even before their COVID outbreak. Their offense was not catching teams off guard anymore and the absences of right guard Marshal Yanda (retirement), left tackle Ronnie Stanley (injury), and tight end Nick Boyle (injury) hurt them significantly. 

Missing everyone they’re missing, the Ravens rank just 18th in my roster rankings, so they’re overrated as 7-point favorites at home without any fans in the stadium against the Cowboys. The Cowboys, meanwhile, are a little underrated. Their offense has a lot of problems without quarterback Dak Prescott and their top-3 offensive linemen (Tyron Smith, Zack Martin, and La’El Collins), as well as retired center Travis Frederick, who was a big part of this unit in his final season in 2019, but their defense is a lot healthier and is playing a lot better now than they were earlier in the season. 

Top cornerback Chidobe Awuzie (7 games missed), top linebacker Leighton Vander Esch (4 games), and valuable edge rusher Randy Gregory (6 games) have all missed significant time and returned and, despite missing those players for significant time, they still rank a respectable 18th in first down rate allowed over expected at +0.64%. The turnover margin has hurt this team more than anything other than injuries, as they rank 2nd worst in the NFL in turnover margin at -13, but turnover margins tend to be highly inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, so the Cowboys should be better going forward in the turnover battle. 

I have this line calculated at Baltimore -4, giving them just a half point for their minimal homefield advantage, so we’re getting good line value with the Cowboys at +7. Whether or not I decide to bet on the Cowboys depends on the status of a trio of questionable Ravens, cornerback Jimmy Smith, edge defender Jaylon Ferguson, and safety Chuck Clark. All three players did not practice all week, which normally suggests they’re not going to play, but they may have just gotten some extra rest this week, playing on a short week. For now, this is a low confidence pick, but I may decide to bet on the Cowboys depending on the status of the aforementioned players.

Update: It sounds like the aforementioned trio will all play despite not practicing, but they could be less than 100% on a short week and this line has jumped to 8.5 after official word came out that Lamar Jackson would play. I think the Cowboys are worth a bet at that number. I am not that excited about betting on the Cowboys, but the Ravens were overrated even before they started losing key players and they are still missing too much, particularly on offense, to justify being favored by this many points. Dallas’ defense, meanwhile, has been much improved in recent weeks due to predictable regression and improved health.

Baltimore Ravens 22 Dallas Cowboys 17

Pick against the spread: Dallas +8.5

Confidence: Medium