Green Bay Packers (9-3) at Detroit Lions (5-7)

Ordinarily, when a good team has back-to-back easy games, that team tends to fare very well in the first game, without any upcoming distractions on the schedule. That’s especially true when their opponent has another tough game on deck, as favorites of 6 or more are 69-23 ATS since 2010 before being favored by 6 or more points again when their opponent will next be favored by 6 points again the following week. All three of those things should be the case in this one, with the Packers facing the Panthers next and the Lions facing the Titans.

Unfortunately, we’re not getting line value with the Packers as 8.5-point favorites in Detroit. The Packers’ defense has been suspect, with a +0.89% first down rate allowed over expected, and, while defensive play is much more inconsistent on a week-to-week basis than offensive performance, the Packers’ 6th ranked offense in first down rate over expected (1.84%) is missing stud center Corey Linsley and doesn’t have a massive edge over the Lions’ 12th ranked offense (+1.03%). I have these two teams about seven points apart, giving us a calculated line of Green Bay -6.5. I’m still taking the Packers for pick ‘em purposes because of the great spot they’re in, but this could still be a relatively final score, especially if the Lions can keep it close enough to get a backdoor cover late.

Green Bay Packers 30 Detroit Lions 20

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -8.5

Confidence: Low