Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2021 Week 1 NFL Pick

Dallas Cowboys (0-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0)

I have the Cowboys winning the NFC East and improving on their 6-10 record from a year ago because of their better health on offense, including the return of Dak Prescott and his top-3 offensive linemen, who all missed significant time last season, and a defense that can’t be worse than a year ago, along with a special teams unit that should remain a strength. However, that offense won’t be at their top form in week one in Prescott’s first game back, without any pre-season action due to a shoulder strain, especially since Prescott is likely to be without Zack Martin, his top returning offensive linemen, who is likely to miss this game after testing positive for COVID.

That will make for a tough time for this team against a mostly healthy Buccaneers team (Jordan Whitehead) that is one of the best in the league and in a great spot as Super Bowl champions in their home opener are 11-4-1 ATS since 2004. However, this line has moved up from 7 to 8 because of the Zack Martin news, so we’re not getting great value with Tampa Bay. My calculated line is Tampa Bay -9, so we’re not getting significant line value enough to confidently bet the Buccaneers, even with history on their side, but they are the pick for pick ‘em purposes.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34 Dallas Cowboys 24

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay -8

Confidence: Low

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