The Broncos went just 5-11 last season, but they have a good chance to make a significant jump in win total. Their biggest problem last season was their turnover margin, dead last in the NFL at -16, but turnover margins tend to be highly inconsistent on a year-to-year basis and the Broncos should at least stabilize their quarterback situation with Teddy Bridgewater being added. They also should be significantly better on defense, with Von Miller returning and significant upgrades being added at cornerback, which was by far their biggest position of weakness on defense last year.
However, the Giants are also an underrated team, with a solid defense and more talent being added around young quarterback Daniel Jones, who played better than his statistics show last season, facing tough competition in the first half of the season, getting minimal help from his supporting cast, and then trying to play with a significant hamstring in the second half of the season when they schedule became easier. The Giants might not be a playoff team, but they won’t be an easy team to face either, so they shouldn’t be underdogs of a field goal at home against the Broncos. This isn’t a big play, but there is enough value with the Giants for them to be worth betting.
New York Giants 17 Denver Broncos 16 Upset Pick +145
Pick against the spread: NY Giants +3