Atlanta Falcons (0-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0)

The Buccaneers nearly lost at home to the Cowboys week one, but they also won that game despite losing the turnover margin by three, which only happens about 11.3% of the time. Turnover margin is one of the least predictable metrics week-to-week and, had the Buccaneers had an even turnover margin in week one, they likely would have won by multiple scores, against a decent Cowboys team. 

With that in mind, they should be able to easily win by multiple scores against a Falcons team that is one of the five worst in the league. This line isn’t high enough at 12.5, as the Falcons really have no strengths as a team with Julio Jones gone, Matt Ryan declining, and the rest of the roster no better than a year ago. This should be an easy blowout for the Buccaneers. I don’t want to make a huge play on this one because the line is so high and the Buccaneers could always take their foot off in the second half with a big lead, but the Buccaneers are still worth a bet at 12.5.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34 Atlanta Falcons 17

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay -12.5

Confidence: Medium