Los Angeles Rams (1-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-1)

The Colts weren’t much of a match for the Seahawks week one, but the Seahawks are one of the most complete teams in the league and the Colts were at far less than full health. I was hoping they would be healthier this week and both Carson Wentz and Quenton Nelson will be another week removed from their injuries, which should be a boost, as will the return of left tackle Eric Fisher, but they will be without their top cornerback Xavier Rhodes once again, while stud right tackle Braden Smith will join him on the sideline. However, I still like the Colts for a small play this week, as underdogs of more than a field goal at home. 

I think the general public sees the Rams as better than the Seahawks, who just beat the Colts easily in Indianapolis as field goal favorites last week, which is why this line is where it is, but I don’t think that is the case. The Rams have gotten a lot of hype for improving their quarterback situation this off-season, but they are unlikely to be quite as good defensively as they were a year ago and their special teams remain a big concern, while the Seahawks are one of the top overall teams in the league. The Rams did win easily against the Bears week one, but the Bears are one of the worst teams in the league and that game could have been a lot closer if not for key mistakes by the Bears, including not touching a receiver down, a blown coverage, and a goal line interception.

The Colts are also in a good spot as teams tend to fare better in their straight game as home underdogs, especially after a double digit loss, covering at about a 57.3% rate historically, while the Rams could get caught looking forward to a matchup with the Buccaneers next week, against a Colts team that is better than they looked week one and that will desperately be trying to avoid 0-2. This won’t be a big play, but I like the Colts enough to bet on them this week.

Los Angeles Rams 24 Indianapolis Colts 23

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis +3.5

Confidence: Medium