Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants: 2021 Week 3 NFL Pick

Atlanta Falcons (0-2) at New York Giants (0-2)

This line favors the Giants by a field goal at home, suggesting these two teams are about even, but I think this line is off and the Giants are the better team. Their biggest weakness is their offensive line, which might be the worst in the league, but the Falcons are among the least equipped teams to take advantage of that, with one of the worst pass rushes in the league, as part of a terrible overall defense. If the Giants can control the line of scrimmage at least somewhat, they should be able to move the ball with ease in this game, with Daniel Jones supported by an improved skill position group from a year ago. 

Jones is an underrated quarterback because he played a brutal schedule last season (nine matchups against top-10 defenses in his first ten games), before suffering a hamstring injury that limited him severely and would have kept many quarterbacks out for several weeks. Jones then started this season with back-to-back tough defenses in the Broncos and Washington, but now he gets to face one of the worst defenses in the league and should be able to have a strong game, coming off one of the best games of his career in a near loss against Washington’s defense.

The Giants also have a solid defense and are overall a much more well rounded team than the Falcons, who don’t do anything particularly well, with even their once solid passing game taking a hit this year with Julio Jones gone and Matt Ryan seemingly on the decline at least a little bit. Add in that the Giants have extra rest off of Thursday Night Football and there is enough here to bet on them confidently as long as this line doesn’t exceed a field goal.

New York Giants 27 Atlanta Falcons 20

Pick against the spread: NY Giants -3

Confidence: Medium

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