Month: September 2021

Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs: 2021 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (0-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (0-0)

It’s possible that no unit has improved more from last year to this year than the Browns’ defense, up there with the Vikings’ defense, which has also added significant reinforcements. The Browns added safety John Johnson, cornerback Troy Hill, cornerback Greg Newsome, linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, and defensive end Jadeveon Clowney, while cornerback Greedy Williams and safety Grant Delpit are both back after missing all of last season with injury.

However, the Browns are starting from a lower base point than last year’s 11-5 record suggests, as they faced a relatively easy schedule and only had four wins by more than one score, as opposed to three double digit losses, leading to them ranking 25th in schedule adjusted first down rate differential. They could have won more than four games by more than one score if they didn’t play as conservatively as they did and they will likely have to open their offense up more against tougher competition in 2021, but that will put more pressure on quarterback Baker Mayfield, who remains an inconsistent, if high upside option under center. 

If Mayfield can take a step forward, this might be the most balanced team in the league, but the uncertainty with Mayfield keeps me from ranking the Browns up there with the top contenders in the league and they happen to be playing one of those contenders week one, with a trip to Kansas City on the schedule. The Browns could still make this a game, but my calculated line is Kansas City -5, so we’re not really getting line value with the Browns at +5.5. I would have liked them more at 6, but the line has dropped to 5.5 everywhere, so this will be a no confidence pick.

Kansas City Chiefs 31 Cleveland Browns 26

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +5.5

Confidence: None

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans: 2021 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0) at Houston Texans (0-0)

The Texans are seen as a candidate to go 0-17, but, while they are one of the worst two teams in the league and unlikely to be favored in any of their games, I would actually be surprised if they didn’t pull a couple upsets. Rather than embracing a full rebuild, the Texans weirdly spent their off-season adding veterans on short-term contracts, rather than just counting this as a lost season and giving opportunities to younger players. It’s unclear what the long-term strategy is, but in the short-term it should help them not be completely awful this season. 

Given that, I think they’re a little underrated as field goal home underdogs against a Jacksonville team that should be better than last season, but still has a lot of issues and will be starting a rookie quarterback in his first game. I don’t want to bet on the Texans this week and probably won’t want to bet on them many weeks unless we’re getting clear value, but they should be the better side for pick ‘em purposes, as the Jaguars haven’t earned being field goal road favorites over anyone yet. I still expect the Jaguars to win, but it wouldn’t be a shock if this was one of the Texans upset victories this season.

Jacksonville Jaguars 27 Houston Texans 26

Pick against the spread: Houston +3

Confidence: Low

Green Bay Packers vs. New Orleans Saints: 2021 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (0-0) vs. New Orleans Saints (0-0) in Jacksonville

The Saints lost Drew Brees to retirement after last season and had to navigate cap hell this off-season, but they did so in a way that kept the rest of their core intact, as the Saints continued borrowing future cap space, rather than going through a full rebuild. Brees actually had his worst season in years last season, but the Saints still had a strong season because of how much talent the Saints have on the rest of this roster and most of that talent was kept this off-season. On top of that, replacement quarterback Jameis Winston looked good in the pre-season and is an experienced starter with untapped upside if he can finally learn to take better care of the ball.

All that being said, I wouldn’t expect the Saints to get off to a good start. Two of their key players, wide receiver Michael Thomas and defensive tackle David Onyemata, are out for the start of the season, due to injury and suspension respectively, and kicker Will Lutz will also be out with injury, which is a big loss for the Saints’ special teams. Winston could also take some time to settle in as well and the Saints are notoriously slow starters anyway, even with Brees, going 4-17-1 ATS in the first two weeks of the season, dating back to 2010 (94-58-7 ATS in weeks 3-17). 

Further complicating things for the Saints is they won’t get to play their home opener until week 4 or later, as they’ll be on the road weeks 2 and 3 and will have to play this “home opener” against the Packers in Jacksonville, with New Orleans still dealing with the effects of Hurricane Ida. That situation has likely been a distraction for this team as well, further hurting their chances of getting out to a fast start.

That doesn’t mean I want to take the Packers this week, however, as they could also get out to a slow start, due to the absence of left tackle David Bakhtiari. Bakhtiari is one of the top left tackles in the league and his presence is always missed, but he’ll be especially needed this season, given that the Packers are much thinner on the rest of this offensive line than they are used to being. With Bakhtiari’s absence, they are expected to start a pair of rookies upfront in week one, which will likely be a steep drop off for one of the best offensive lines in the league. 

The Packers could also be without Za’Darius Smith, who was very limited in practice this week with a back injury that has plagued him for several weeks now, which would be as big of a blow to their pass rush as Bakhtiari’s absence is to their pass protection. This line seems to be taking into account all of the tough circumstances the Saints are dealing with, giving them 3.5 points in a neutral site game, but ignoring the key absences for ther Packers. 

For that reason, I’m actually taking the Saints, as I think we’re getting line value with them if the line is higher than a field goal. If this game were later in the season, I would probably bet on the Saints, but it hard to be confident in them in week 1, given how slow of a start they usually get out to. If Smith plays and the line stays put, I will likely drop this down to no confidence, but it sounds more likely than not than he will be out for week one.

Update: Smith sounds likely to play, while cornerback Marshon Lattimore popped up on the injury report on Saturday, likely a bad sign for his status this week. That would leave the Saints even thinner at cornerback, a thin position group that is already missing Ken Crawley and Brian Poole with other injuries. I’m dropping this to no confidence.

Green Bay Packers 27 New Orleans Saints 24

Pick against the spread: New Orleans +3.5

Confidence: None

Denver Broncos at New York Giants: 2021 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (0-0) at New York Giants (0-0)

The Broncos went just 5-11 last season, but they have a good chance to make a significant jump in win total. Their biggest problem last season was their turnover margin, dead last in the NFL at -16, but turnover margins tend to be highly inconsistent on a year-to-year basis and the Broncos should at least stabilize their quarterback situation with Teddy Bridgewater being added. They also should be significantly better on defense, with Von Miller returning and significant upgrades being added at cornerback, which was by far their biggest position of weakness on defense last year.

However, the Giants are also an underrated team, with a solid defense and more talent being added around young quarterback Daniel Jones, who played better than his statistics show last season, facing tough competition in the first half of the season, getting minimal help from his supporting cast, and then trying to play with a significant hamstring in the second half of the season when they schedule became easier. The Giants might not be a playoff team, but they won’t be an easy team to face either, so they shouldn’t be underdogs of a field goal at home against the Broncos. This isn’t a big play, but there is enough value with the Giants for them to be worth betting.

New York Giants 17 Denver Broncos 16 Upset Pick +145

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +3

Confidence: Medium

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots: 2021 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (0-0) at New England Patriots (0-0)

This matchup features one of my top overrated teams and one of my top underrated teams. The Dolphins won 10 games a year ago, but they faced a very easy schedule and they benefited from an unsustainably high turnover margin (+11), opponent’s field goal percentage (3rd lowest at 73.91%) and 3rd/4th down conversion rate allowed (33.02%), actually lower than the 34.07% conversion rate they allowed on 1st/2nd down (4th highest in the NFL). 

They improved their receiving corps this off-season, but they’ll be without veteran addition Will Fuller with a suspension this week and they will likely have worse quarterback play, as Ryan Fitzpatrick was by far their most effective quarterback a year ago and is no longer with the team. Tua Tagovailoa will likely be better than he was as a rookie in year two, but he’ll need to make a big leap to avoid this team having worse quarterback play. I have them as a below average team overall and significantly behind the Patriots in my roster rankings.

The Patriots only won 7 games a year ago, but they did so despite underwhelming play on both offense and defense, as they were led by a dominant special teams, which still remains and should now be complemented by significantly improved offensive and defensive units, with the Patriots getting a significant amount of talent back from COVID opt outs, as well as a significant amount of talent coming in through free agency after the Patriots off-season spending spree. 

They also should get better quarterback play from rookie Mac Jones, who was very impressive in the pre-season. If Jones can even be a league average starter as a rookie, this team should win a significant amount of games and they should be favored by a significant amount at home against the Dolphins. This line, favoring the Patriots by a field goal, suggests these two teams are about even, so we’re getting a lot of value here, enough for the Patriots to be my Pick of the Week.

New England Patriots 24 Miami Dolphins 16

Pick against the spread: New England -3

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills: 2021 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) at Buffalo Bills (0-0)

The Steelers won 12 games last season, but their offense was a big problem, as they ranked 28th in first down rate over expected at -2.83%. Many are expecting them to be better on offense, after using their first round pick on running back Najee Harris and with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger another year removed from his elbow injury, but first round running backs usually aren’t a good value and it’s unclear how Roethlisberger will hold up over the course of the season, after looking better in very limited pre-season action. 

The Steelers also are likely to be noticeably worse on the offense line, having to replace four starters from a year ago with low cost options, the most promising of whom, Zach Banner, is out for the start of the season. The Steelers’ defense led them to their impressive record last season, but they lost some key players this off-season and will also be without stud defensive lineman Stephon Tuitt to begin the season due to injury. Defensive performance is also significantly less predictive than offensive performance and the Steelers likely wouldn’t be able to rely on being as dominant defensively as they were a year ago, even if they did return all of their key players. 

After ranking 11th in schedule adjusted first down rate differential at +1.46% a year ago and winning 12 games against an easy schedule, the Steelers are likely to see a steep drop off in their win total and should be underdogs of at least a touchdown in Buffalo against one of the best teams in the league. Let’s take advantage of the Steelers being a little overrated in what should be another multiscore victory for the Bills, who beat the Steelers by 11 late last season.

Buffalo Bills 27 Pittsburgh Steelers 17

Pick against the spread: Buffalo -6.5

Confidence: High

Los Angeles Chargers at Washington Football Team: 2021 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Chargers (0-0) at Washington Football Team (0-0)

The Chargers are a bit of an overrated team coming into the season. They should be better on the offensive line and in the running game this season, to complement their impressive passing offense, led by quarterback Justin Herbert, but they’re starting from a lower base point than most realize, as they didn’t beat a single team with a winning record in 2020, while losing three times to teams without a winning record and not winning a single game by more than 10 points. 

The Chargers went 7-9 last season, but needed a stretch of wins by only a field goal against the Raiders, Falcons, and Broncos in weeks 14-16, before playing the Chiefs backups week 17. They could win more games this season, but it will likely take Justin Herbert taking another step forward, far from a guarantee for a player who is already coming off one of the best rookie seasons ever by a quarterback and would need to be even better for this team to take a big step forward.

Washington is a much more well rounded team, with a dominant defense and an improved offense, led by new quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. This line, favoring Washington by only a point, suggests the Chargers are a slightly better team, but I have Washington as the better team, favoring them by 4 points in my calculated line. They’re definitely worth a bet at Washington -1, as they would just need to win to cover and should win this game about 60-65% of the time.

Washington Football Team 24 Los Angeles Chargers 20

Pick against the spread: Washington -1

Confidence: High

Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals: 2021 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (0-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-0)

The Vikings were one of my underrated teams coming into the season, as they won 7 games last season despite a horrendous defense, which should be significantly better in 2021, with Danielle Hunter, Michael Pierce, Anthony Barr, and Eric Kendricks returning from significant absences and veterans Patrick Peterson, Bashaud Breeland, Dalvin Tomlinson, Sheldon Richardson, and Everson Griffen give them a needed infusion of talent. The Vikings had one of the most efficient offenses in the league a year ago and should be one of the better offenses again in 2021, so if their defense can be a complementary unit, they should win a significant amount of games.

Unfortunately, we’re not getting good line value with the Vikings to start the season, as they will be without linebacker Anthony Barr due to an unrelated injury to the one that cost him most of last season, as well as left tackle Christian Darrisaw, their first round pick and a replacement for their most significant offensive loss this off-season, Riley Reiff. This is still a solid team, but the Bengals aren’t going to be that bad this season, so it’s a lot to expect the Vikings to go into Cincinnati and win by more than a field goal. I’m still taking them for pick ‘em purposes, but this is a no confidence pick.

Minnesota Vikings 24 Cincinnati Bengals 20

Pick against the spread: Minnesota -3

Confidence: None

Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams: 2021 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (0-0) at Los Angeles Rams (0-0)

The Rams are one of the more overrated teams coming into the season. Matt Stafford obviously elevates this offense, but they still have concerns on the offensive line and in the running game, while their defense is unlikely to be as good as a year ago, losing a trio of key players in John Johnson, Michael Brockers, and Troy Hill, as well as talented defensive coordinator Brandon Staley, whose efforts earned him the head coaching job with the Chargers. They’re still a solid team, but they’re not the Super Bowl contender many see them as and could easily find themselves out of the playoffs in a loaded NFC West, facing a tougher schedule than when they went 10-6 a season ago.

However, we’re not getting a good opportunity to bet against the Rams this week because they’re facing a Bears team that is likely to be one of the worst in the league to start the season. Low upside veteran Andy Dalton will begin the season as the starting quarterback, behind a patchwork offensive line with an underwhelming group of skill position players, while their defense is far from what it used to be, especially with Danny Trevathan and Eddie Goldman both out for the start of the season. This line is appropriate at Los Angeles -7.5 and I’m actually going to take the Rams for pick ‘em purposes, in the wake of the Bears’ injury issues.

Los Angeles Rams 24 Chicago Bears 16

Pick against the spread: LA Rams -7.5

Confidence: None

Arizona Cardinals at Tennessee Titans: 2021 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (0-0) at Tennessee Titans (0-0)

This line favors the Titans by a field goal at home, suggesting these two teams are about equal, with the Titans possibly being the slightly higher ranked team by the oddsmakers. I think this line is off. These two teams were about even in point differential last season (+52 for the Titans vs. +43 for the Cardinals), even though the Cardinals had quarterback Kyler Murray suffer an injury down the stretch, while Titans faced a significantly easier schedule and benefited from a league best +11 turnover margin, which is a highly inconsistent metric on a year-to-year basis. 

The Cardinals finished last season 12th in first down differential at +1.39%, as opposed to 24th at -1.31% for the Titans, and they should be better this season, in Kyler Murray’s third season in the league, with Chandler Jones returning from injury and key off-season additions Rodney Hudson and JJ Watt upgrading big positions of need. The Cardinals aren’t as good at cornerback as a year ago, with Patrick Peterson signing in Minnesota and replacement Malcolm Butler retiring before the season for personal reasons, but they’re an overall better team than a year ago.

The Titans, meanwhile, made a splash addition of Julio Jones this off-season, but he’s an aging receiver on the decline and could easily not be an upgrade on departed free agent wide receiver Corey Davis, who finished last season 5th with 2.58 yards per route run. They added Bud Dupree to upgrade their pass rush, but gutted their cornerbacks in the process and overpaid a player in Dupree who is coming off of a torn ACL and who is unlikely to be as effective away from the Steelers’ talented defense. 

Add in the fact that Derrick Henry is unlikely to repeat last year’s historic season and the Titans seem likely to be worse than a year ago, while the Cardinals are likely to be better. Considering the Cardinals probably already had the edge last season, that would make the Cardinals a significantly better team. I have them 2.5 points higher in my roster rankings, making this an even line with the Titans at home. This isn’t a big bet, but I’ll happily take the field goal we’re getting in this game and will make a play on the moneyline as well.

Arizona Cardinals 31 Tennessee Titans 30 Upset Pick +135

Pick against the spread: Arizona +3

Confidence: Medium