Month: September 2021

San Francisco 49ers at Detroit Lions: 2021 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2021 NFL Picks, 2021 Week 1 NFL Picks, 49ers, Lions, NFL Picks

San Francisco 49ers (0-0) at Detroit Lions (0-0)

Most are expecting a bounce back year from the 49ers, who fell to 6-10 in 2020 after a series of devastating injuries depleted the roster of a 13-3 team the year prior, but I still think the 49ers are underrated, as they are starting from a higher base point than last year’s 6-10 record suggests. The 49ers finished last season 4th in schedule adjusted first down rate differential at +3.66%, as their record was largely the result of a poor turnover margin (-11, 2nd worst in the NFL), which is a highly inconsistent metric year-to-year, and a tough schedule, which gets easier this season. 

The 49ers are likely to be significantly healthier and have a significantly better turnover margin than a year ago, which should allow them to win a lot of games, against an easier schedule, starting with a matchup with one of the worst teams in the league in the Detroit Lions. The Lions already looked like one of the worst two teams in the league going into the season, their first without Matt Stafford, who they sent to the Rams in a rebuilding move this off-season, and the Lions will also be without one of their best players, left tackle Taylor Decker in this matchup, forcing rookie Penei Sewell, who was overwhelmed in the pre-season, to protect the blindside of new quarterback Jared Goff, rather than beginning his career at right tackle.

This line is high, favoring the 49ers at 8.5, but I don’t think it’s high enough and it’s likely this line would be at least double digits by mid-season, as the public has yet to realize the 49ers are one of the top teams in the league again. Their defense won’t be quite as good as 2019 because their secondary isn’t as good, but their offense could be much more explosive than 2019’s, if the trio of Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk all stay relatively healthy, as they are now. Those 2019 49ers won 8 of their 13 regular season games by at least 9 points, as well as their two playoff victories, so they should be able to take care of business against one of the worst teams in the league. This line being over a touchdown is stopping me from making this a bigger play, but the 49ers should win with ease, even opening their season on the road.

San Francisco 49ers 31 Detroit Lions 17

Pick against the spread: San Francisco -8.5

Confidence: Medium

Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2021 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2021 NFL Picks, 2021 Week 1 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Cowboys, NFL Picks

Dallas Cowboys (0-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0)

I have the Cowboys winning the NFC East and improving on their 6-10 record from a year ago because of their better health on offense, including the return of Dak Prescott and his top-3 offensive linemen, who all missed significant time last season, and a defense that can’t be worse than a year ago, along with a special teams unit that should remain a strength. However, that offense won’t be at their top form in week one in Prescott’s first game back, without any pre-season action due to a shoulder strain, especially since Prescott is likely to be without Zack Martin, his top returning offensive linemen, who is likely to miss this game after testing positive for COVID.

That will make for a tough time for this team against a mostly healthy Buccaneers team (Jordan Whitehead) that is one of the best in the league and in a great spot as Super Bowl champions in their home opener are 11-4-1 ATS since 2004. However, this line has moved up from 7 to 8 because of the Zack Martin news, so we’re not getting great value with Tampa Bay. My calculated line is Tampa Bay -9, so we’re not getting significant line value enough to confidently bet the Buccaneers, even with history on their side, but they are the pick for pick ‘em purposes.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34 Dallas Cowboys 24

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay -8

Confidence: Low

2021 NFL Season Previews

stevenlourie 2021 NFL Season Previews

AFC East

Buffalo Bills 13-4

New England Patriots 13-4

Miami Dolphins 6-11

New York Jets 4-13

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens 12-5

Cleveland Browns 12-5

Pittsburgh Steelers 6-11

Cincinnati Bengals 6-11

AFC South

Indianapolis Colts 10-7

Tennessee Titans 9-8

Jacksonville Jaguars 6-11

Houston Texans 2-15

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs 14-3

Denver Broncos 9-8

Los Angeles Chargers 7-10

Las Vegas Raiders 7-10

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys 10-7

Washington Football Team 8-9

New York Giants 7-10

Philadelphia Eagles 5-12

NFC North

Minnesota Vikings 11-6

Green Bay Packers 11-6

Chicago Bears 6-11

Detroit Lions 2-15

NFC South

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13-4

New Orleans Saints 9-8

Atlanta Falcons 6-11

Carolina Panthers 5-12

NFC West

San Francisco 49ers 12-5

Seattle Seahawks 12-5

Arizona Cardinals 11-6

Los Angeles Rams 8-9

AFC Wild Card Round

#2 Buffalo over #7 Tennessee

#3 Baltimore over #6 Cleveland

#5 New England over #4 Indianapolis

NFC Wild Card Round

#2 San Francisco over #7 Arizona

#3 Minnesota over #6 Green Bay

#5 Seattle over #4 Dallas

AFC Divisional Round

#1 Kansas CIty over #5 New England

#2 Buffalo over #3 Baltimore

NFC Divisional Round

#1 Tampa Bay over #5 Seattle

#2 San Francisco over #3 Minnesota

AFC Championship

#2 Buffalo over #1 Kansas City

NFC Championship

#2 San Francisco over #1 Tampa Bay

Super Bowl

#2 Buffalo over #2 San Francisco

Summary: I didn’t pick many upsets in the post-season because the teams are mostly seeded according to how good they are, but I went with both #2 seeds in the Super Bowl because history suggests that making the Super Bowl in back-to-back years is unlikely and that one or both conferences will be represented by someone new in 2021.