New Orleans Saints (2-2) at Washington Football Team (2-2)

This is the toughest call of the week for me. The Saints have been easily the least predictable team in the league this season, beating the Patriots and Packers by multiple scores, but losing by multiple scores to the Panthers and losing in overtime to the previously winless Giants. The Saints haven’t played two straight bad games yet and have typically bounced back well after a loss in the Sean Payton era (51-30 ATS), but that was almost all with Drew Brees, who retired this off-season. 

This Saints team is missing a lot more than Drew Brees, after several key off-season departures and an injury/suspension list that includes top wide receiver Michael Thomas, talented kicker Will Lutz, top interior defender David Onyemata, starting linebacker Kwon Alexander, starting defensive end Marcus Davenport, and stud offensive linemen Terron Armstead and Erik McCoy. Fortunately for the Saints, their opponents aren’t that tough, as Washington is starting a backup quarterback and doesn’t have as good of an offensive line or defense as they did a year ago. 

My calculated line is actually right where this line is, favoring the visiting Saints by 2.5, another reason why this is a very tough call. With no line value, no situational trends, and a highly inconsistent Saints team, I want no part of picking this game, but I will take the Saints just because a field goal by the Saints is probably the single most likely outcome of this game, but the Washington could also pull the small upset if the Saints play like they have in their losses.

New Orleans Saints 20 Washington Football Team 17

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -2.5

Confidence: None