Tennessee Titans (2-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4)

This line shifted from favoring the Titans by 7 points on the early line last week to 4.5 points this week, likely as a result of the Titans losing in a similar spot as big road favorites in New York against the Jets last week, losing in overtime as 6-point favorites. However, the Titans are healthier than a week ago, with top wide receiver AJ Brown and starting cornerback Caleb Farley both set to return, while the Jaguars are an even weaker opponent than the Jets.

The Lions and Texans are clearly the worst two teams in the league, but the Jaguars aren’t too far behind them, even losing to the Texans week one, albeit back when the Texans still had Tyrod Taylor healthy. Still, that game wasn’t that close, nor have any of the Jaguars’ games been, with the exception of last week’s close loss to the Bengals, against a team that was missing it’s top two defensive backs. Even with that result factored in, the Jaguars are still losing by an average of 10.3 points per game and have the 5th worst point differential in the league.

That near win in Cincinnati last week may also be part of the reason why this line shifted, but that wasn’t as impressive as it could have been if the Bengals were fully healthy on defense and last week’s result should probably be overshadowed by the situation that has developed with head coach Urban Meyer since last week’s game. Meyer, who already was unpopular with the players, could have completely lost the locker room, which could cause this winless team to quit if they get down big early. They’re also likely to be unprepared and unfocused after the week they had.

The Titans have the offensive firepower to put the Jaguars down big early and should be favored by a lot more than 4.5 points, but I am hesitant to bet on them because they’re not in a good spot either. After this easy matchup with the Jaguars, the Titans have a much tougher matchup with the Chiefs and may not be fully focused as a result. The Jaguars could be equally distracted and unfocused, but there isn’t quite enough here for the Titans to be worth betting. Their defense is still a problem and I would be worried about a backdoor cover if the Titans aren’t focused enough to pull away early.

Tennessee Titans 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 20

Pick against the spread: Tennessee -4.5

Confidence: Low