Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions: 2021 Week 12 NFL Pick

Chicago Bears (3-7) at Detroit Lions (0-9-1)

Both of these teams are dealing with injuries to their expected starting quarterback. The Bears’ situation is less concerning, with experienced veteran Andy Dalton being the backup. Dalton obviously lacks the upside or athleticism of rookie starting quarterback Justin Fields, but he is probably an upgrade as a passer and might not be a downgrade overall. The Lions’ situation is more concerning because, as bad as Jared Goff has been as a starter this season, backup Tim Boyle is still a big downgrade, struggling mightily in his debut last week after previously throwing just four passes in four seasons in the league after going undrafted in 2018. 

The good news for the Lions, however, is that, unlike Fields, who has been ruled out, Goff is questionable and seems like he is on the right side of questionable and likely to start after a one-game absence. This team still has a lot of problems even if Goff plays, but they are not as bad as their record suggests, as many of their losses have been close. Their -113 point differential is certainly not good, but it’s better than the point differential of the Texans (-121) and Jets (-142), who have probably had worse seasons than the Lions, despite managing to win a couple games each.

That point differential shows they are being outscored by an average of 11.3 points per game, but even that suggests they are getting blown out more often than they are, with just three of their ten games resulting in losses by more than 10 points, including a game against the Packers in which they led at halftime in Green Bay. By contrast, four of their ten games have been decided by three points or fewer, relevant given that they are 3-point underdogs in this game. That’s all despite the fact that the Lions have faced an above average schedule and, in fact, this home game against the Bears is arguably the easiest game of their season. 

The Bears are 3-7 and have been as bad as their record suggests, with the 6th worst point differential in the league at -77 and rankings of 29th, 12th, and 22nd in offensive, defensive, and special teams efficiency respectively. This once dominant defense is not what it was, due to several key off-season departures in recent years and now some in-season injuries, most impactfully the ones suffered by Khalil Mack and Akiem Hicks, arguably their two best defensive players, whose absence makes their defense even worse than their efficiency rank. Meanwhile, their offense has struggled as much as it has in recent years, regardless of who they have started at quarterback. 

The Lions rank 27th, 27th, and 4th in offensive, defensive, and special teams efficiency respectively, which is very underwhelming, but still doesn’t make them the worst team in the league and it makes them a decent value as 3-point home underdogs, assuming Goff can play. Winless teams also tend to be a good bet this late in the season, covering the spread at a 63.3% rate in week 9 or later. I still wouldn’t bet them in that scenario, but if Goff plays and this line stays put, they are the better side for pick ‘em purposes. If Goff is out, I will likely be on the Bears for no confidence as a pure fade of Tim Boyle. I am leaving this as a no confidence pick on the Lions, but I will likely have an update based on Goff’s status and any potential line movement.

Update: It sounds like Goff is playing, so I’m bumping this up to low confidence before the line drops below a field goal, which it could on Thursday morning.

Chicago Bears 24 Detroit Lions 23

Pick against the spread: Detroit +3

Confidence: Low

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