Cleveland Browns (6-5) at Baltimore Ravens (7-3)
The Browns are 6-5, but they could easily have a couple more wins, as they have faced a tough schedule and have three one-score losses, including a pair of games in which they won the first down rate and yards per play battle, but lost the turnover battle. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency rankings, which are based on yards per play and first down rate, more predictive metrics than point differential or winning percentage, the Browns rank 13th, 13th, 16th on offense, defense, and special teams respectively and 11th in mixed efficiency.
The Browns have slipped in recent weeks, especially on offense, but injuries have been the primary culprit and they figure to be a lot healthier this week. Not only will they get stud right tackle Jack Conklin and talented running back Kareem Hunt back from extended absences, giving them arguably their healthiest offensive supporting cast since the beginning of the season, but quarterback Baker Mayfield seems likely to be closer to 100% than he has been in recent weeks, practicing in full on Thursday and Friday and being left without an injury designation on this week’s injury report.
The Ravens, meanwhile, are 7-3, but they have needed a 5-1 record in one score games to get there and rank 10th, 29th, 2nd, and 14th in schedule adjusted offensive, defensive, special teams, and mixed efficiency. In fact, just three of their seven wins would have covered this 3.5-point spread and one of those was an overtime win where they won by six points after being down 22-3 earlier in the game. They are very overvalued as 3.5-point favorites against a capable opponent.
My calculated line is even, with the Ravens getting a couple points for homefield advantage, but also being a couple points behind the Browns in my rankings, so we are getting a lot of value with the suddenly much healthier Browns at +3.5. This is a high confidence pick and one of my top plays of the week. The money line is also a great value at +165 (or close to that), as the Browns should be at worst considered a 50/50 shot to pull the upset and win this game.
Cleveland Browns 24 Baltimore Ravens 23 Upset Pick +165
Pick against the spread: Cleveland +3.5