We’re not getting significant line value with the Buccaneers as 2.5-point road favorites in Dallas this week and, in fact, my calculated line is Tampa Bay -1, meaning we’re actually getting a little line value with the Dallas, but that’s pretty insignificant line movement and Tom Brady led teams have been close to automatic covering the spread in his career when he basically just needs to win to cover, going 57-28 ATS as underdogs of favorites of fewer than three points. I would need Chris Godwin to play for the Buccaneers to be worth betting, but there’s a good chance he does.
As much as the Buccaneers have gotten attention for their injury situation, with a pair of offensive line starters going down for the season, the Cowboys are going to start the season without left tackle Tyron Smith and Michael Gallup, after already suffering significant losses this off-season, with Amari Cooper, Randy Gregory, Connor Williams, and La’El Collins no longer with the team. The Buccaneers should win this game by at least a field goal or more. I’ll update this pick before gametime if Godwin ends up playing.
Update: Godwin is expected to play, so I think the Buccaneers are a safe bet this week, as the healthier team over a banged up Cowboys squad.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30 Dallas Cowboys 24
Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay -2.5