Atlanta Falcons (0-2) at Seattle Seahawks (1-1)
The Seahawks were favored by 3 points in this matchup on the early line last week, but the line has since shifted to even, a big line movement, given that about 1 in 4 games are decided by 3 points or less. Both teams lost last week, but the Seahawks were blown out in San Francisco, while the Falcons came close against the Rams in a one-score loss and it appears the public is giving them much more credit for their performance.
However, the Falcons made that game closer than it would have been with a blocked punt returned for a touchdown, which is not predictive week-to-week and, in terms of yards per play and first down rate, which are more predictive, the Falcons lost by 0.69 and 7.61% respectively, actually worse than the 0.73 and 3.73% respectively that the Seahawks lost those metrics to the 49ers by. The Seahawks also rank slightly higher in my roster rankings, so we’re getting good line value with them with this line being even and the Seahawks being at home, as my calculated line says the Seahawks are a good value up to 3.5. This isn’t a big play, but the Seahawks are worth betting this week.
Seattle Seahawks 24 Atlanta Falcons 20
Pick against the spread: Seattle PK