New York Jets (3-2) at Green Bay Packers (3-2)
I was hoping we would get some value with the Packers this week, back at home after a disappointing performance in London against the Giants last week. In Aaron Rodgers’ career, the Packers have had a significant homefield advantage, going 47-20 ATS at home in games started and finished by Aaron Rodgers, with Rodgers having a QB rating that is 10 points better at home, significantly higher than the average differential for a quarterback. Unfortunately, despite the Packers’ loss last week and the Jets’ upset win over the Dolphins, this line has barely moved from a week ago, with the Packers still favored by 7.5 points, after being favored by 9 on the early line last week, a pretty insignificant difference.
That’s probably because the Jets are still underrated, as their offense is significantly better than earlier this year with Zach Wilson and Duane Brown back from injury, while their defense (8th) and special teams (2nd) both rank well above average in efficiency. Even with extra homefield advantage taken into account, my calculated line only has the Packers favored by a touchdown, so we’re actually getting a little bit of line value with the Jets, although not nearly enough to be confident picking them.
Green Bay Packers 27 New York Jets 20
Pick against the spread: NY Jets +7.5