Month: October 2022

San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers: 2022 Week 5 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (2-2) at Carolina Panthers (1-3)

This is one of the more surprising lines of the week, with the Panthers going from being just 3-point home underdogs against the 49ers on the early line last week to now 6.5-point home underdogs, following the 49ers’ 15-point home victory over the Rams and the Panthers 10-point home loss to the Cardinals last week. I usually like to go against significant week-to-week line movements because they tend to be an overreaction to a single week of play and that is the case here. My calculated line has the 49ers as no better than field goal favorites and it’s really hard to justify the 49ers as favorites of this many points on the road against a good defense, given how much the 49ers’ offense is struggling.

Through the first four games of the season, the 49ers rank 28th in first down rate and 30th in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency and my roster rankings have them significantly below average on offense as well. They still have Jimmy Garoppolo, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle, but their running back group is depleted by injury and their offensive line lost a trio of starters this off-season and now is without Trent Williams, who will be filled in for this week by third stringer Jaylon Moore, after backup Colton McKivitz played admirably in their first game without Williams last week, before suffering an injury of his own.

The Panthers’ defense, meanwhile, ranks 7th in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency, a year after finishing the 2021 season ranked 4th, so they should cause problems for this 49ers’ offense. The Panthers obviously have their own offensive issues, ranking dead last in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency, while the 49ers rank 1st in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency, which is a bigger mismatch than the 49ers’ offense against the Panthers’ defense, especially since the 49ers could be getting back could be getting Jimmie Ward and Jason Verrett back from injury, but it’s still hard to justify the 49ers as 6.5-point favorites on the road in what should be a low scoring game. I like the Panthers a good amount this week.

San Francisco 49ers 19 Carolina Panthers 17

Pick against the spread: Carolina +6.5

Confidence: High

New York Giants vs. Green Bay Packers: 2022 Week 5 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (3-1) vs. Green Bay Packers (3-1) vs. London

The Giants are 3-1, but they haven’t been overly impressive, with all of their wins being close and their schedule being one of the easiest in the league thus far. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, the Giants rank just 24th, suggesting their record is largely the result of their level of competition. This week, the Giants’ level of competition jumps significantly, with a matchup against the Green Bay Packers, who are also 3-1, but have been more impressive in doing so, ranking 8th in schedule adjusted efficiency, while also holding a significant edge in my roster rankings. This is a neutral site game in London, but the better team tends to be at even more of an advantage in international games, with favorites covering at 65% rate all-time. 

Unfortunately, we’re not getting great line value with the Packers, as the public and oddsmakers don’t believe in the Giants either, leading to the Packers being favored by 8 points on a neutral field. My roster rankings give the Packers a 10-point edge, so we’re getting some line value with them even at -8, but I’m not sure it’s quite enough for them to be worth betting, even in a good spot. That would change if Leonard Williams missed another game for the Giants, but it seems like he’s more likely than not to return from a 2-game absence this week, which would be a big re-addition for a struggling Giants defense. This is a low confidence pick for now, but I would change my mind if Williams didn’t play.

Update: Williams is out, so I am increasing the confidence on this game.

Green Bay Packers 26 New York Giants 13

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -8

Confidence: Medium

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos: 2022 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (1-2-1) at Denver Broncos (2-2)

Normally I like to take non-divisional home favorites on Thursdays, as teams tend to be at a serious disadvantage if they have to travel on the road to face a non-divisional opponent that is comparable to or better than them. As a result, non-divisional home favorites cover at a 64.2% rate on Thursday Night Football, including 65.1% when favored by more than a field goal. Unfortunately, we’re getting line value with the visitor in this game, which offsets that. This line favored the Broncos by just 2.5 points on the early line last week, but that has since shifted to 3.5, a bigger shift than you might think, given that 1 out of 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal.

The shift is probably because the Colts because to the Titans and had two of their most important players get injured, with every down linebacker Shaq Leonard out and feature back Jonathan Taylor questionable, but Leonard has been out for most of the season anyway and Taylor seems more likely than not to suit up, even if he’s not at full strength. The Broncos also had key players go down with injury last week, losing feature back Javonte Williams and top edge defender Randy Gregory, a big loss for a Broncos team that had already gotten off to an underwhelming start to the season.

The Broncos are 2-2, but they’ve faced one of the easiest schedules in the league and have especially struggled on offense, ranking 31st in first down rate, a concern because offensive performance tends to be significantly more predictive than defensive or special teams performance. Their offense could get better going forward as new quarterback Russell Wilson and new offensive minded head coach Nathaniel Hackett develop better chemistry, but the loss of Williams on an already injury plagued offensive unit doesn’t help matters.

In terms of overall schedule adjusted efficiency, which weights offense more heavily and takes into account strength of schedule, the Broncos enter this game ranked 31st in the NFL, 6.5 points below average, significantly behind the Colts, who rank a middling 17th. We’re only four games into the season, which is a small sample size, and my roster rankings have a much smaller gap between these two teams, giving the Colts a one point edge, but it’s hard to see how the Broncos deserve to be 3.5-point favorites, even in a good spot on a short week and even if Jonathan Taylor ends up not playing for the Colts. The Colts aren’t bettable this week, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes at +3.5, though I would drop all confidence on them if Taylor ultimately did get ruled out.

Update: Taylor has been ruled out, despite saying earlier this week that he expected to play. I’m still on the Colts, but for no confidence. These two teams are about even with the Colts missing Taylor, so in a normal circumstance, the +3.5 would still be intriguing, but this is also a tough spot for the Colts on a short week.

Denver Broncos 23 Indianapolis Colts 20

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis +3.5

Confidence: None