Las Vegas Raiders (2-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6)

The Jaguars are just 2-6, but they actually have a positive point differential at +14, as all six of their losses have come by eight points or fewer, with an average margin of 6.3 points per game, while their two wins have come by margins of 24 and 28. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, the Jaguars rank 7th in the NFL, about 3.5 points about average and, while my roster rankings have them 5.5 points below average, they’re still significantly better than their record would suggest, overachieving their talent level by a significant amount.

The Raiders also have just two wins and have also played better than that, with four of their five losses coming by six points or fewer, but their -11 point differential is still significantly behind the Jaguars, while their 18th ranked schedule adjusted efficiency is 4 points behind the Jaguars. The Raiders have the 3.5 point edge in my roster rankings, as they are underachieving their talent level and the Jaguars are overachieving, but, overall, I have the Jaguars as the slightly better of these two teams. Given that this game is in Jacksonville, my calculated line has them favored by a field goal, so we’re getting good line value with them as 2-point home underdogs. I wish we were getting a full field goal with them, but they’re still bettable at +2, and on the money line.

Jacksonville Jaguars 27 Las Vegas Raiders 24 Upset Pick +115

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +2

Confidence: Medium