Dallas Cowboys (6-2) at Green Bay Packers (3-6)

This game is a tough call. On one hand, the Packers have been close to an automatic bet at home with Aaron Rodgers in his career, going 47-21 ATS in games he starts and finishes, including 5-1 ATS as home underdogs, as he is this week, by 4.5 points against the Dallas Cowboys. On the other hand, this line makes sense even with the Packers’ significant homefield advantage and the Cowboys are also in a great spot as big road favorites after a bye, with road favorites of more than a field goal covering at a 63.3% rate all-time after a bye.

Coming into the season, I was expecting the Packers to regress. The Packers went 13-4 last season, but finished just 10th in point differential and 11th in overall efficiency, despite an MVP season from Aaron Rodgers who, as good as he is, was no guarantee to play at quite the same level in 2022, now in his age 39 season. Add in the loss of by far their top wide receiver Davante Adams this off-season and some regression was to be expected from them, especially on offense.

On offense, the Packers have fallen from 4th to 16th in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency and, while their defense has remained middle of the pack, ranking 15th in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency, after ranking 17th last season, they’re likely is likely to fall off significantly on that side of the ball going forward, due to the long-term absence of two of their best defensive players, De’vondre Campbell and Rashan Gary, who are among the best players in the league at their respective positions. 

The Packers also have continued to struggle on special teams, ranking 30th in special teams efficiency, after ranking dead last a year ago and, all in all, the Packers are already 3-6 and rank just 22nd in schedule adjusted efficiency, 2.5 points below average, which could easily get worse going forward, as injuries pile up. The Cowboys, meanwhile, rank 5th in schedule adjusted efficiency, 4.5 points above average, even though quarterback Dak Prescott missed five and a half games with injury, which he has since returned from.

Even factoring in five points for homefield advantage for the Packers, which is several points more than the standard, my calculated line is still Dallas -4, which is right around where this line is, at Dallas -4.5 in reality. In normal circumstances, I would probably take the Packers for a no confidence pick, but the Cowboys do have a strong trend on their side so I am going to take them for pick ‘em purposes. There isn’t nearly enough here for the Cowboys to be worth betting on, but, even with the Packers’ recent home dominance, no one should be surprised if the well-rested and relatively healthy Cowboys come into Green Bay and beat this mediocre and banged up Packers team relatively easily.

Dallas Cowboys 30 Green Bay Packers 24

Pick against the spread: Dallas -4.5

Confidence: Low