Washington Commanders (4-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (8-0)
The Eagles have benefited from a +15 turnover margin en route to their 8-0 start, which is by far the best in the league, but also not something that is predictive long-term. However, the Eagles still rank 6th in schedule adjusted efficiency, four points above average, and they have the most talented roster in the league in my roster rankings as well. They are favored by 11 points at home this week against the Commanders, which is a lot, but we’re actually still getting a little bit of line value with the Eagles at that number.
The Commanders are 4-5, but their four wins came by 14 points combined and they are a well below average team overall, ranking 24th in point differential at -33 and 20th in schedule adjusted efficiency, 1.5 points below average, while being 4.5 points below average in my roster rankings. My calculated line is Philadelphia -13.5, so there isn’t nearly enough here for the Eagles to be worth betting, but I’m somewhat confident in their ability to cover this large spread for pick ‘em purposes.
Philadelphia Eagles 26 Washington Commanders 13
Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -11