Year: 2022

Arizona Cardinals 2022 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2022 NFL Season Previews, Cardinals

Quarterback

The Cardinals were the NFL’s last remaining undefeated team last season, starting the year 7-0 and, even after dropping a couple games, they still remained in the NFC’s #1 overall seed at 10-2, with just five games left in the season. However, the Cardinals lost four of those last five regular season games to not only fall out of the #1 seed, but to fall out of the division lead as well, forcing them to go on the road in the first round of the playoffs, where they were embarrassed by their divisional rival Los Angeles Rams.

In some ways, the Cardinals’ collapse was predictable, as they were very reliant on the turnover margin early in the season, with a +12 turnover margin through 12 games. Turnover margins tend to be very unpredictive on a week-to-week basis and the Cardinals’ efficiency ratings, which are more predictive, did not show them to be as good as their record through 12 games, as they ranked 9th, 14th, 12th, and 8th in offensive, defensive, special teams, and overall efficiency. In the Cardinals’ final five games, they were even in the turnover margin, which made it much tougher for them to win games.

Their failure to continue to dominate the turnover margin was not their only problem though, as they badly missed top wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, who missed 7 of the Cardinals’ final 9 regular season games, including their final 4 games, as well as their playoff loss, top defensive lineman JJ Watt, who missed the final 10 games of the regular season before returning to be a shell of himself in the playoff loss, and top cornerback Robert Alford, who missed the final 4 regular season games and the playoff loss. As a result, the Cardinals fell to 13th, 19th, 20th, and 15th in offensive, defensive, special teams, and overall efficiency by season’s end.

That doesn’t bode well for the Cardinals’ chances of bouncing back in 2022. Hopkins is suspended for the first six games of the season, JJ Watt heads into his age 33 season with a big history of major injuries, and the oft-injured Robert Alford was not retained for his age 34 season this off-season. On top of that, the Cardinals lost Christian Kirk, their top receiver in Hopkins’ absence, Chandler Jones, their top edge defender, Jordan Hicks, their top off ball linebacker, and Chase Edmonds, their most efficient running back this off-season, with their only major addition being former Ravens wide receiver Marquise Brown, who cost the Cardinals their first round pick in a trade.

Quarterback Kyler Murray will have his work cut out for him if he wants to get the Cardinals back to the post-season. The 2019 #1 overall pick, Murray has taken a step forward in all three seasons in the league, going from 29th among quarterbacks on PFF as a rookie to 12th in 2020 and then 7th last season, emerging as one of the top dual threat quarterbacks in the league. In total, Murray completed 69.2% of his passes for an average of 7.87 YPA, 24 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions last season, while rushing for 423 yards on 88 carries (4.81 YPC) with 5 touchdowns.

Murray is still only going into his age 25 season and may still have further untapped upside and, even if he doesn’t, he’s likely to remain one of the better quarterbacks in the league for years to come. The Cardinals will have to make a decision on his contract long-term at some point in the next calendar year or so, with Murray set to see his salary jump to 29.703 million in the final year of his rookie deal after this season, and Murray spent some of the off-season pressuring for a big deal from the Cardinals sooner rather than later, with this being the first off-season he is eligible for a new contract. 

Murray is likely to command a top of market deal whenever he signs so there might be some logic to giving him a deal now, when the top of the market is lower than it might be in a year, with Lamar Jackson still unsigned long-term and Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert set to be eligible for extensions next off-season. However, when Murray is ultimately signed long-term, it will make it even more difficult for the Cardinals to keep talent around Murray. In the salary cap era, only Hall of Fame caliber quarterbacks have won the Super Bowl with a cap hit lower than 11%, so Murray will have to prove he is on that level to justify his new payday when that day comes.

One concern with Murray, given his size (5-10 207) and playing style (314 carries in 3 seasons in the league), is injuries and he did miss the first three games of his career last season, but the Cardinals were able to hold down the fort pretty well because backup Colt McCoy gave them solid play. McCoy has been a bit of an erratic backup throughout his career, with just a 80.3 career QB rating, but he had a 101.4 QB rating on 99 pass attempts in his first season in Arizona last season and seems to be a good fit for the scheme. He’s only started 33 games total in 12 seasons in the league and he’s now going into his age 36 season, so it’s very possible he would struggle if he had to start for an extended period of time, but there are worse backups. The Cardinals obviously need Murray to stay healthy though, if they want any chance at being contenders.

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

As I mentioned, the Cardinals traded their first round pick, 23rd overall, to the Ravens for wide receiver Marquise Brown. The Cardinals did get back pick #100, but they still gave up the equivalent of the 28th overall pick in draft capital, a steep price to pay for a wide receiver who wants a big long-term extension added on to the 15.52 million he’s due over the next two seasons on the final two years of his rookie deal. 

Brown is a 2019 first round pick who is still only going into his age 25 season and there is some belief that he’ll be able to consistently put up better numbers in a more pass heavy system, after beginning his career with the run heavy Ravens, which is a big part of the reason Brown requested a trade from Baltimore in the draft place. However, Brown has actually surpassed 100 targets in each of the past two seasons and, while his 1.69 yards per route run average for his career is solid, it’s not the kind of number that suggests he’s secretly an elite wide receiver trapped in the wrong offense.

Brown played with Murray at the University of Oklahoma and their previous chemistry, as well as the likelihood that having Brown around will keep the mercurial Murray happy, make the addition of Brown more logical, but he hasn’t proven he’s worth the top level contract he wants long-term and giving a first round pick for the right to give him that contract is very questionable. He does give them a necessary replacement for Christian Kirk (1.81 yards per route run in 2021) and he gives them a interim #1 wide receiver while DeAndre Hopkins serves his 6-game suspension, but he comes at a very steep price.

Prior to the seven games he missed last season, Hopkins has missed just two games total in eight seasons in the league from 2013-2020. Starting in his breakout season in his second season in the league, the 2013 1st round pick had seven straight seasons among the top wide receivers in the league from 2014-2020, averaging a 99/1315/8 slash line and 2.18 yards per route run, despite generally inconsistent quarterback play, but he’s now going into his age 30 season and seemed to be slowing down a little bit in 2021 even before his injury, as he was averaging just 1.76 yards per route run and was on pace for just a 71/972/14 slash line across 17 games. 

Hopkins still was PFF’s 18th ranked wide receiver across the 10 games he did play, but that was his lowest rating since his 2016 season, with five finishes in the top-7 among wide receivers on PFF the previous seven seasons prior to 2021. His age isn’t a big concern, but 30-year-old wide receivers are about 40% less likely to have a 1,000 yard receiver than 26-year-old wide receivers and, even if he doesn’t drop off significantly this season, it’s likely that is coming in the next 2-3 seasons, with 33-year-old wide receivers being 80% less likely to have a 1,000 yard receiver than 26-year-old wide receivers. Hopkins has a good chance to remain one of the better wide receivers in the league when on the field in 2022, but his best days are likely behind him and a higher than expected dropoff is certainly possible, especially if he continues becoming increasingly injury prone.

Before trading for Marquise Brown, the Cardinals brought back veteran AJ Green, but he was never a long-term solution, now heading into his age 34 season. The 4th overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft by the Bengals. Green surpassed 1,000 yard receiving in six of his first seven seasons in the league, but has had a pretty typical decline for a top level wide receiver, posting his most recent and likely final 1,000 yard season in 2017, in his age 29 season. 

Green got off to an impressive start in 2018, with a 46/694/6 slash line in 9 games, but then he got hurt, leading to him missing all of 2019 and he has not nearly been the same since. His yards per route run average in 2021 was up from the pathetic 1.02 average he had in his final season in Cincinnati on a hapless Bengals team, but he still only averaged 1.60 yards per route run in a middling at best 2021 campaign and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he declined further in 2022. He could remain a serviceable stopgap, but he could also see his abilities totally fall off and his best days are almost definitely behind him either way.

The Cardinals also have 2021 2nd round pick Rondale Moore, who figures to be the 3rd receiver to begin the season, with Hopkins out. Moore is still extremely raw, only turning 22 this season, but he had an impressive 1.64 yards per route run average as a rookie in a limited role and could be ready for a bigger role in year two. Even when Hopkins returns, Moore figures to continue seeing action in 4-wide receiver sets, which the Cardinals run about as much as any team in the league under head coach and offensive play caller Kliff Kingsbury.

Because of how many 4-wide receiver sets they run, the Cardinals never used a tight end much in the early days of the Kliff Kingbury/Kyler Murray era, but that changed when they acquired veteran Zach Ertz from the Eagles mid-season last year. Ertz seemed to be nearing the end in 2020 and earlier last season with the Eagles, seeing his yards per route run average drop to 1.03 between 2020 and his time with the Eagles in 2021, after averaging 1.83 in the first seven seasons of his career prior to 2020, but he managed to have something of a resurgence in what was previously considered an unfriendly offense for tight ends in Arizona, posting a 56/574/3 slash line in 11 games while averaging 1.54 yards per route run, not as good as what he averaged earlier in his career, but still an above average figure for a tight end.

Ertz’ best days are still almost definitely behind him, as he now heads into his age 32 season, and it’s very possible he could see his 2020 form return, but it’s also very possible he remains a solid starter for at least another season. The Cardinals clearly believe Ertz can remain a solid starter going forward, re-signing him on a 3-year, 31.65 million dollar deal with 14.5 million fully guaranteed in the first year, but they also hedged their bet a little bit, using their 2nd round pick on Colorado State’s Trey McBride as potential long-term successor for Ertz. 

McBride was mostly drafted for the future, but with Hopkins suspended to begin the year, we could see more two-tight end sets from the Cardinals, so the rookie could have a significant role to begin the season. The Cardinals also still have veteran tight end Maxx Williams, whose torn ACL suffered last season was what spurred the Cardinals to acquire Ertz in the first place. Williams has just 102 catches in 68 career games and injuries have been a consistent problem for him, costing him 45 games total in seven seasons in the league, but he’s an above average blocker and will be useful in that capacity if he can recover from his latest injury and stay on the field. This is a deep and talented group with a lot of potential when Hopkins is out there, but they’ll miss him early in the season and he may continue declining when he returns.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

The Cardinals employed a two-headed attack out of the backfield last season, three if you include Kyler Murray’s contributions as a runner. This off-season, both of those backs, James Conner and Chase Edmonds, were set to hit free agency. Conner had more carries (202 vs. 116) and significantly more touchdowns (15 vs. 2), but he was also the significantly less efficient back on a per carry basis (3.72 YPC and 52% carry success rate vs. 5.10 and 58% for Edmonds), so it might have been a mistake for the Cardinals to bring Conner back on a 3-year, 21 million dollar deal, while Edmonds signed in Miami on a cheaper 2-year, 12.1 million dollar deal.

The Cardinals also didn’t do anything to replace Edmonds aside from signing mediocre veteran Darrel Williams, so Conner figures to have a significantly expanded role this season, a concern considering he’s been injury prone throughout his career, never missing fewer than two games and never surpassing 215 carries in a season. Williams is likely to have at least some role as the #2 back, probably mostly on passing downs, after a 47/452/2 slash line with the Chiefs last season, and he’ll likely see at least a couple starts at some point as well when Conner inevitably misses time with injury, but that is a concern, considering Williams has averaged just 3.85 YPC on 237 carries in four seasons in the league. Even his 1.18 yards per route run average is mediocre, actually lower than Conner’s 1.27 average for his career.

It’s possible Williams could face competition for the #2 back job from incumbent #3 running back Eno Benjamin, but the 2020 7th round pick struggled when given the first action of his career in 2021, averaging just 3.47 YPC on 34 carries. He’d likely see some role if Conner gets hurt, but he would likely be just as unimpressive as Williams in an expanded role. The Cardinals are counting on Conner staying healthy as a feature back, with questionable depth behind him, but his 4.16 YPC and 1.27 yards per route run average for his career are underwhelming and he’s never been healthy enough to have more than 270 touches in a season in five seasons in the league, so he’s a questionable fit in a feature back role. It’s a concern for this backfield.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

The Cardinals’ offensive line was more of a weakness than a strength in 2021. Their expected starting five was not that bad, but all five missed at least some time with injury, so they rarely had their expected line together and their top reserves Josh Jones (852 snaps), Sean Harlow (441 snaps), and Justin Murray (90 snaps) all struggled. In addition to depth being a weakness, the Cardinals also had a weak spot on the starting offensive line at right guard to address this off-season. However, the Cardinals did nothing of note to address their depth and only replaced mediocre incumbent right guard Max Garcia with free agent addition Will Hernandez, who may not be a significant upgrade.

A second round pick by the Giants in 2018, Hernandez looked like a long-term above average starter after a solid rookie season in which he made all 16 starts and finished as PFF’s 24th ranked guard. However, that has proven to be his peak thus far in his career, as he’s finished below average on PFF in each of the past three seasons and was even benched for a stretch in 2020. Garcia finished the 2021 season as PFF’s 64th ranked guard out of 90 eligible, but Hernandez was even worse, finishing 68th. Hernandez is an experienced starter (56 career starts) and may still have some bounce back potential, but he’s already in his age 27 season and is unlikely to have significant untapped upside. I wouldn’t expect him to be more than a serviceable starter and even that may be wishful thinking.

The Cardinals’ depth concerns upfront are even more concerning as several of their starters are on the wrong side of 30, with left guard Justin Pugh going into his age 32 season, center Rodney Hudson going into his age 33 season, and right tackle Kelvin Beachum going into his age 33 season. Pugh was an injury concern even when he was younger, playing all 16 games just twice in nine seasons in the league and missing 30 games total over those nine seasons, and he’s unlikely to become more durable now in his 30s. He was still a solid starter last season, but early career injuries largely sapped his abilities, as he hasn’t been more than a solid starter since 2016, and he could easily fall off significantly in 2022, given his age.

Hudson had a significant drop off last season, in his first year with the Cardinals after being acquired from the Raiders for a third round pick last off-season, finishing 28th out of 41 eligible centers, after finishing in the top-13 among centers in each of the previous seven seasons, with five top-10 finishes in those seven years. Hudson could bounce back a little bit in 2022, but his best days are almost definitely behind him and he also could just as easily drop off even further, as he goes further into his 30s. Beachum was still a capable starter in 2021, but he did earn his worst grade from PFF since 2016 and also could easily continue declining. Even if he doesn’t decline, he hasn’t been much more than a middling starter for most of his career, though he is plenty experienced with 130 career starts in 10 seasons in the league.

The Cardinals will need Pugh, Hudson, and Beachum to hold up as at least capable starters for another season because Josh Jones, Sean Harlow, and Justin Murray remain as their top reserves and none of them are likely to be significantly better than a year ago. Jones has the most upside of the bunch, as a 2020 3rd round pick, but he was horrendous last season, finishing 85th out of 90 eligible guards on PFF, after barely playing as a rookie. Even if he takes a step forward in his third year in the league, he could easily still remain a below average option. Harlow, meanwhile, is a 2020 undrafted free agent who struggled in the first significant action of his career last season and is no guarantee to be better going forward, while Justin Murray is a career backup who has never been more than a middling injury fill-in.

The only above average starter on this offensive line in the prime of their career is left tackle DJ Humphries, who heads into his age 29 season. A first round pick in 2015, Humphries took a year to earn a starting job and dealt with a lot of injuries early in his career, so he only had 27 starts in the first four seasons of his career, but in three seasons since, he’s missed just one game total and has developed into a consistently above average starter. His best season came in 2020 when he finished 5th among offensive tackles on PFF and, while he hasn’t consistently been that good, it shows the highest ceiling he has. Other Humphries though, this is a pretty underwhelming group.

Grade: B-

Edge Defenders

As I mentioned earlier, the Cardinals lost Chandler Jones in free agency this off-season, with Jones signing in Las Vegas on a 3-year, 51 million dollar contract. Jones is going into his age 32 season, but he still had the 7th double digit sack season of his career last season and the Cardinals top’ returning edge defenders Markus Golden and Devon Kennard are also on the wrong side of 30, going into their age 31 seasons in 2022. The Cardinals used 3rd round picks on San Diego State’s Cameron Thomas and University of Cincinnati’s Myjai Sanders in this year’s draft, but they probably won’t play huge roles as a rookie, so the Cardinals will be relying heavily on the veterans Golden and Kennard at this position in 2022.

Golden actually led this team with sacks last season with 11, while also totaling 9 hits and pressuring the quarterback at a 11.4% rate, and he’s mostly been an above average pass rusher throughout his career, with 44.5 sacks, 73 hits, and a 12.8% pressure rate in 94 games in 7 seasons in the league. He was limited to just 15 games total from 2017-2018 by injury, but has bounced back nicely to only miss one game over the past three seasons. He could easily have another above average season rushing the passer, but his age is becoming a concern and if his pass rush ability significantly declines, he would become a liability because his run defense has always been a problem. 

Kennard, on the other hand, is in many ways the opposite, as he’s never been much of a pass rusher, with 26.5 sacks, 36 hits, and a 9.7% pressure rate in 111 games in 8 seasons in the league, but he’s also generally received above average grades from PFF for his run defense. He’s played more of a reserve role over the past two seasons since joining the Cardinals, playing just 22.8 snaps per game in 28 games, but he played 44.3 snaps per game in his first six seasons in the league prior to the past two seasons and now will need to play a bigger role with Jones gone. How effective he’ll be in that larger role, now on the wrong side of 30, is questionable though. The Cardinals will need Golden and Kennard to not show any signs of decline and they will need good production from their rookies for this to be an above average group. More likely, they’ll be more of a middling group.

Grade: B-

Interior Defender

JJ Watt returns to the Cardinals this season, which is important because their defense fell off significantly when he missed the final 10 games of last season. Watt is going into his age 33 season and has missed at least half the season with injury in four of the past six seasons though, so he’s not that reliable of an option. Watt still played at a pretty high level when on the field last season, pressuring the quarterback at a very impressive 12.9% rate from the interior and ranking 10th among interior defenders on PFF across the seven games he played, but he still finished with the 3rd lowest PFF grade of his 11-year career, with his previous season in 2020 being the 4th lowest grade of his career, so he’s clearly on the decline. Even a declined JJ Watt could still be one of the better players in the league at his position, but it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he continued declining further, considering his age and injury history.

If you’ve noticed something of a theme on this Cardinals team, it’s having key players who have been accomplished in the past, but who are now on the wrong side of 30. In addition to Watt, edge defenders Markus Golden and Devon Kennard, offensive linemen Justin Pugh, Rodney Hudson, and Kelvin Beachum, and pass catchers DeAndre Hopkins, AJ Green, and Zach Ertz are all on the wrong side of 30 and those nine players could all easily be starters for this team. 

It’s not hard to see how this could be one of the oldest teams in the league this season in terms of average age of snaps played, which is a concern, because older players tend to drop off suddenly. If that happens to a few of the aforementioned players, the Cardinals will be in trouble, given that efficiency ratings suggested they were a middling team last season, even before off-season departures and potential drop offs from key players. 

Watt dropping off significantly would especially be a concern, not just because of how well he still played last season before the season, but also because the Cardinals have next to nothing at the interior defender position behind him. Jordan Phillips (284 snaps) and Corey Peters (362 snaps) were their only other interior defenders to earn even an average grade from PFF last season, but those two veterans are gone and the Cardinals didn’t do anything to replace him, so they will be banking on getting better play from some of their young players at the position.

Those younger player sare 2019 3rd round pick Zach Allen (684 snaps), 2020 4th round pick Leki Fotu (371 snaps), fellow 2020 4th round pick Rashard Lawrence (219 snaps), and 2019 7th round pick Michael Dogbe (263 snaps), who all had roles last season and who are candidates to see their roles expanded in 2022, despite all of them finishing below average on PFF in every season of their careers. Allen led this position in snaps played last season, so there might not be much room for his role to grow, but either way, he will have a big role, which is a problem because he is a significant liability against the run. His career 6.4% pressure rate is not bad and he’s still only in his age 25 season and may have untapped upside, but he’ll need to improve his run defense to become even a capable starter.

Fotu, Lawrence, and Dogbe all may have untapped upside as well, but they’ve shown even less than Allen has thus far in his career, with Fotu and Lawrence also struggling on snap counts of 284 and 166 respectively as rookies in 2020 and Dogbe only playing 123 snaps total in two seasons in the league prior to earning a slightly bigger role in 2021. It’s very possible none of them ever develop into useful contributors, which is a concern because the Cardinals will need at least a couple of them to do so this season, for this to be a solid group overall. JJ Watt’s presence elevates this whole position group, but he has become increasingly unreliable in recent years.

Grade: C+

Linebackers

The Cardinals used back-to-back first round picks on off ball linebackers in the 2020 and 2021 NFL Draft, taking Isaiah Simmons 8th overall in 2020 and then taking Zaven Collins 16th overall in 2021. Simmons only saw 376 snaps as a rookie, but he moved into an every down role in year two in 2021. Collins was supposed to join him and his selection was expected to lead to the Cardinals trading or releasing veteran Jordan Hicks, but instead Hicks took a pay cut and stayed ahead of Collins on the depth chart all season, limiting Collins to 220 snaps as a reserve. In fact, Hicks was the Cardinals’ best off ball linebacker overall in terms of PFF grade and finished 27th in overall grade among off ball linebackers.

Hicks was still let go this off-season, a move that saved the Cardinals 6 million, freeing up the job for Collins, but there is no guarantee Collins is as good in his first year as a starter, even if he is a first round talent who flashed a lot of potential as a rookie. On top of that, Simmons hasn’t shown much more than middling play thus far in his career, though he obviously has the upside to take a big leap forward in year three. Both Collins and Simmons have the upside to be a very talented off ball linebacker duo long-term, but there is no guarantee they reach their potential and, even if they do, it might not be in 2022.

Collins and Simmons are also both somewhat non-prototypical linebackers, with the 6-4 230 pound Simmons having the athleticism to play on the slot and to move to the edge and the 6-4 260 Collins having the size to also play some defensive line, so there will be snaps available for at least one reserve off ball linebacker to see action. The most likely candidate for that role is veteran free agent signing Nick Vigil, who is plenty experienced, with 51 starts in 85 games in 6 seasons in the league, but who also has never been more than a middling linebacker and who finished last season as PFF’s 80th ranked off ball linebacker out of 94 eligible across 718 snaps. He’s not a bad reserve option, but he’ll likely struggle if he has to see extended action. This group has upside, but obvious downside if neither Collins nor Simmons take a step forward and it’s very possible they’ll miss Jordan Hicks, their best player at the position a year ago.

Grade: B-

Secondary

Robert Alford definitely wasn’t the biggest name on the 2021 Cardinals, but he was by default their top cornerback and his absence down the stretch last season was as big of a reason as any why the Cardinals declined down the stretch. Alford is oft injured, playing just 28 games total over the past 4 seasons, and was heading into his age 34 season in 2022, so the Cardinals opted not to retain him this off-season and he could easily have struggled even if he was brought back, so it’s understand why they let him go, but the Cardinals also didn’t replace him, so cornerback looks like it will be a very questionable position for the Cardinals this season.

Byron Murphy (967 snaps) and Marco Wilson (748 snaps) both played significant roles last season in three cornerback sets with Alford and both remain on the roster, but they finished 89th and 117th respectively out of 134 eligible cornerbacks on PFF and will likely be underwhelming starting options again in 2022. Wilson was only a rookie, but he was also only a 4th round pick and it’s far from a guarantee that 4th round picks ever develop into long-term starters, even ones that see playing time early in their career. Wilson could take a step forward in year two, but he played badly enough last season that a step forward wouldn’t necessarily make him even a capable starter.

Similarly, Murphy is a 2019 2nd round pick who was a little better in 2020 than he was in 2021, but he was still only a middling cornerback in 2020 and he finished 122nd out of 135 eligible cornerbacks as a rookie in 2019, so he’s had an inconsistent at best three years in the league thus far. Still only in his age 24 season, there is still time for him to develop into an above average starter and, even if that doesn’t happen this season, he could still be better than a year ago, but that’s far from a guarantee.

Without any significant additions being made to this group this off-season, the Cardinals will likely turn to Antonio Hamilton as their third cornerback. He was decent on 313 snaps last season, but that was a very limited sample size and it was still a career high in defensive snaps for a 6-year veteran who has primarily been a special teamer in his career. Now in his age 29 season, it’s unlikely he’s suddenly going to break out as even an average #3 cornerback.

Making matters worse, the Cardinals don’t have any real depth to speak of behind their shaky top-3 cornerbacks. Breon Borders was probably the most significant addition the Cardinals made to this group this off-season and he flashed potential on 360 snaps with the Titans in 2020, but the 2017 undrafted free agent has played just 166 other defensive snaps in his career, including just 70 last season for the Titans, so he’s a highly unproven option as well. The Cardinals took cornerback Christian Matthew in the 7th round, but he would very likely struggle if forced into significant action as a rookie. This is one of the shakiest cornerback groups in the league.

Things are fortunately better at safety, although somewhat by default. Budda Baker is arguably the Cardinals’ best defensive player with Chandler Jones gone and Markus Golden and JJ Watt getting up in age, but Baker is also coming off of a down year. He still finished above average on PFF, but he fell to 47th among safeties on PFF after finishing 33rd in 2019 and 10th in 2020. He’s only in his age 26 season though and he’s been an above average starter in all five seasons of his career, so he has a good chance to bounce back and even if he doesn’t, he should remain a valuable player.

Jalen Thompson was actually the better of the two starting safeties last season, finishing 37th among safeties on PFF in his first full season as a starter. A 5th round pick in the 2019 supplemental draft, Thompson actually became a starter midway through his rookie season, when he made 9 starts in total, but his second season in the league was ended after 4 starts by injury. He fared well when on the field in his first two seasons in the league though, so it wasn’t surprising that he had a solid season as a full-time starter in his 3rd year in the league. He should remain at least a solid starter and, still only going into his age 24 season, he may still have some untapped upside.

Depth is a bit of a concern at safety though, with Deionte Thompson being their only notable reserve. The incumbent #3 safety, Thompson should remain in that role, but the 2019 5th round pick has struggled in limited action in his career and would likely be a big weakness if forced to start for an extended period of time. He’s played just 655 snaps total in his career, with just 71 of those snaps coming last season. The Cardinals will need their starting safeties to stay healthy because they’ll have to try to mask the Cardinals’ big weakness at cornerback.

Grade: B-

Special Teams

The Cardinals’ special teams was slightly below average last season, finishing 20th in special teams DVOA. Kicker Matt Prater had a better good season and returns for another year, but, sticking with the theme of this team, he’s getting up there in age, even for a kicker, in his age 38 season, while punter Andy Lee is in his age 40 season and coming off of a significantly down year, finishing dead last out of 35 eligible punters on PFF.

Rondale Moore will likely remain their primary return man, even if he has to play a bigger role on offense when DeAndre Hopkins is suspended, but he was underwhelming last season and is not a guarantee to be better in year two. On top of that, one of the Cardinals’ two best core special teamers, veteran Demetrius Harris, is no longer with the team, leaving Dennis Gardeck as their only top-50 special teamer on PFF from a year ago. Because of that, it wouldn’t be a surprise if this group was even worse in 2022, especially given the age of their kicker and punter.

Grade: C+

Conclusion

The Cardinals went 11-6 last season, but they needed a +12 turnover margin to win that many games, finishing just 15th in efficiency, and they were exposed in a big way down the stretch last season. Even if they brought back the same team as a year ago, they likely would not win 11 games again, as they would not be able to count on dominating the turnover margin again, as turnover margin is not predictive year-to-year, but the Cardinals also look worse than a year ago.

The aging Cardinals lost top edge defender Chandler Jones and top cornerback Robert Alford this off-season, both over 30, which will be big losses, and they still have nine players over 30 who could easily start for them this season and if even a few of them drop off significantly, that will be very noticeable. The absence of JJ Watt and DeAndre Hopkins was a big part of the reason for their struggles in the second half last season, but Watt is a highly injury prone player in his age 33 season, while Hopkins is also on the wrong side of 30 and will sit for at least the first 6 games with a suspension. 

The Cardinals also lost running back Chase Edmonds and linebacker Jordan Hicks this off-season, key players from last season’s team, and had to trade their first round pick to get Marquise Brown to replace another departure Christian Kirk, meaning the Cardinals didn’t get much out of the draft. There is still talent on this team, but they should be worse than a year ago and they’re starting from a lower base point than their 11-6 record a year ago would suggest. The NFC is the weaker of the two conferences by a wide margin, but the Cardinals play in probably the toughest division in the conference and are not guaranteed to even get a wild card berth again. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Final Prediction: With several key off-season losses and an aging roster, the Cardinals are not as talented of a team as they were last year when they weren’t as good as their 11-6 record. This year, they could easily finish as a sub-.500 team and they look like a long shot for the post-season.

Prediction: 6-11, 3rd in NFC West

Denver Broncos 2022 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2022 NFL Season Previews, Broncos

Quarterback

The Broncos were just 7-10 last season, but things were better than that suggests. The Broncos were 7-6 and in the middle of a close game with the Bengals when they lost starting quarterback Teddy Bridgewater for the rest of the season with a concussion, leading to the Broncos losing their final four games of the season. Bridgewater was also knocked out of an eventual loss to the Ravens earlier in the season, so the Broncos were actually 7-5 last season in games that Bridgewater started and finished. Bridgewater also was far from their only key player who missed time last season, as the Broncos had the 5th most adjusted games lost to injury in the league. Despite that, the Broncos actually finished with a positive point differential at +13, suggesting they still were better than their 7-10 record, even with all of the talent that was sidelined.

Bridgewater was unspectacular, completing 66.9% of his passes for an average of 7.16 YPA, 18 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, while finishing 21st among 39 eligible quarterbacks on PFF, but he was significantly better than backup Drew Lock, who completed 60.4% of his passes for an average of 7.09 YPA, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, while finishing 32nd among quarterbacks on PFF. Still, with Bridgewater set to hit free agency this off-season, the Broncos were in the market for an upgrade and they found one when the Seahawks decided to trade them their long-time franchise quarterback Russell Wilson for two first round picks, two second round picks, a fifth round pick, and three players, including Drew Lock, as well as starting tight end Noah Fant and talented defensive lineman Shelby Harris.

The Seahawks moved him because he is highly paid (51 million over the next two seasons) and getting up there in age (age 34 season), while the Seahawks are seemingly hitting the reset button and undergoing a rebuild, but Wilson was consistently one of the best quarterbacks in the league throughout his 10 years in Seattle and has yet to show many signs of slowing down. In total, Wilson has completed 65.0% of his passes for an average of 7.83 YPA, 292 touchdowns, and 87 interceptions in his career, while rushing for 4,689 yards and 23 touchdowns on 846 carries (5.54 YPC), and finishing in the top-10 among quarterbacks on PFF in seven of ten seasons.

Wilson missed three games with a finger injury last season, but he had never missed a game with injury in his entire career prior to that and returned from a 6-8 week injury much quicker than expected. Wilson wasn’t quite the same immediately upon his return, but after his first three games back, he returned to form. If you exclude those first three starts after his return, Wilson completed 67.7% of his passes for an average of 8.24 YPA, 23 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, while earning PFF’s 10th highest grade among quarterbacks over those games.

Athletic quarterbacks like Russell Wilson tend not to age as well, as their athleticism declines, and Wilson is coming off by far his worst rushing season in terms of carries (43) and yards (183), but he should remain at least an above average quarterback for another season, even if he doesn’t bounce back as a runner. He significantly elevates the ceiling of a Broncos team that has a lot of talent around the quarterback and that is clearly in win now mode, after giving up a significant amount of draft capital. 

One thing the Broncos still need to do is find a better backup quarterback, with Brett Rypien currently in line to be the #2 quarterback. Rypien was undrafted in 2019 and has thrown just 42 passes in three seasons with the Broncos, posting a 61.2 QB rating, so he would be a very underwhelming option if Wilson were to go down. Rypien’s only competition right now is career journeyman Josh Johnson, the other quarterback on their roster, who has made just 5 starts over the past 10 seasons. Even with the backup quarterback situation though, the Broncos are still in an enviable situation under center.

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

One position group where the Broncos had significant injury absences was wide receiver, where Jerry Jeudy missed 7 games and KJ Hamler missed 14 games. Fortunately, the Broncos had a lot of depth at the wide receiver position going into last season and wide receivers Courtland Sutton (58/776/2) and Tim Patrick (53/734/5) led this group in receiving with Jeudy and Hamler missing time. All four should be healthy going into 2022, so this is a deep group, even if they lack a true #1 receiver.

Sutton and Patrick had pretty underwhelming 1.43 and 1.48 yards per route run averages, in part because of their inconsistent quarterback play, but Jerry was significantly better at 1.85 yards per route run, so getting a full season out of him should be a boost for this offense. That would especially be true if the 2020 1st round pick takes a step forward in his third season in the league, still only in his age 23 season. 

Jeudy also had a 1.66 yards per route run average as a rookie, so he’s flashed a lot of potential so far, and he has the upside to be a #1 receiver long-term. Hamler was also drafted early in 2020, taken in the second round, but he hasn’t shown much so far, averaging just 1.18 yards per route run. Hamler still has upside, but coming off a torn ACL doesn’t help and he figures to open the season as the clear #4 receiver, unless injuries strike ahead of him on the depth chart.

Sutton has been a #1 receiver for the Broncos in the past, surpassing the 1000 yard mark with a 72/1112/6 slash line in 2019 (2.08 yards per route run), in just his second season in the league. That made it seem like he’d be a #1 receiver for years to come, but he tore his ACL early in 2020 and did not seem to be the same upon his return in 2021, even if he didn’t miss a game. He has a lot of bounce back potential though, now another year removed from the injury, especially now that he has a significant upgrade under center.

With Jeudy and Sutton possessing the most upside of the bunch, Tim Patrick will likely settle in as the #3 receiver, a role he’s a little overqualified for. The 2017 undrafted free agent didn’t do much early in his career, but he’s had back-to-back solid seasons for the Broncos, with slash lines of 51/742/6 and 53/734/5 respectively and an average of 1.59 yards per route run over those two seasons. He probably won’t match the target totals he had in 2019 (79) and 2020 (85), with Jeudy and Sutton likely to command significantly more targets than him, but he also gets an upgrade at quarterback, so he could still remain a productive player in a smaller role.

Wilson won’t have the benefit of tight end Noah Fant, who went the opposite way in the trade with Seattle. Fant had a solid season as a receiver, averaging 1.52 yards per route run, but he struggled as a blocker and the Broncos have a good internal replacement for him in Albert Okwuegbunam. A 2020 4th round pick, Okwuegbunam hasn’t gotten to play much thus far in his career, limited to 86 snaps by injury as a rookie and then playing 421 snaps as Fant’s backup last season, but he’s flashed a lot of potential as a receiver, averaging 2.02 yards per route run. He’s not much of a blocker either and he’s a projection to a larger role, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he ended up as an upgrade over Fant as a receiver.

The Broncos will still miss Fant though, as they won’t be able to pass out of two tight end sets as effectively as they did last season. They used a 3rd round pick on UCLA’s Greg Dulcich, but he might be too raw to have a big role as a rookie, so the Broncos could lean on veteran Eric Tomlinson as the #2 tight end. Tomlinson is a capable blocker, but has never been much of a receiver, with 18 career catches in 54 games in the league. The Broncos will likely use more three and four wide receiver sets to make up for their lack of tight end depth, but they have plenty of wide receiver depth and Okwuegbunam has the upside to be an above average receiving option.

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

The Broncos also had a lot of injuries on the offensive line last season, as they didn’t have a single starter play all 17 games, missing a total of 16 games across the five starters. All five starters earned average or better or grades from PFF, so they played well when healthy, and they return four of those five starters, so if they can stay healthier, they have a good chance to be an above average unit. The one change they made was at right tackle, where free agent Bobby Massie was not retained and was replaced by free agent acquisition Billy Turner, which is essentially a lateral change.

Also capable of playing guard, Turner has been a capable, if unspectacular starter over the past four seasons, making 54 starts in total. His age is a concern, now going into his age 31 season, but he hasn’t shown any signs of dropping off, so he has a good chance to remain at least a capable starter. If he struggles, he would likely be replaced by fellow veteran free agent acquisition Tom Compton, a versatile player who should provide depth across the board. Compton has never made more than 14 starts in a season in 10 seasons in the league (44 total starts) and now heads into his age 33 season, but he’s played well when depended on, finishing above average on PFF in three of the past four seasons, doing so both at guard and at tackle.

Compton won’t be the Broncos’ only talented reserve either, as they have four starting caliber players competing for three starting spots on the interior of their offensive line. Graham Glasgow and Lloyd Cushenberry were the Broncos starters at right guard and center respectively going into last season, with 3rd round rookie Quinn Meinerz serving as a reserve, but Glasgow was limited to 384 snaps by injuries, opening the door for Meinerz to play 623 snaps as a rookie and he fared pretty well, finishing 38th among guards on PFF.

At center, Cushenberry made the most starts of any Broncos offensive lineman with 16, but the 2020 3rd round pick was a middling starter, after struggling mightily in 16 rookie year starts, so Meinerz could be an upgrade on him. The Broncos could also keep Meinerz at guard and move Glasgow inside to center, where he has some experience earlier in his career. Another option they have is just moving Glasgow to the bench, which could happen if he doesn’t play well in training camp, coming off of a broken leg and going into his age 30 season.

Signed to a 4-year, 44 million dollar deal in free agency two off-seasons ago, Glasgow was a consistently above average starter throughout his time in Detroit, whether he played guard or center, but, in two seasons in Denver, he’s been limited to 20 games total by injury and he’s mostly been a middling starter. The Broncos only kept him this off-season after he cut his expected 9.5 million dollar salary down to 3.2 million and, even if he can bounce back from his most recent injury, the Broncos might not have a starting spot for him, on a deep offensive line.

Left guard Dalton Risner is the most secure in his role of any of the Broncos’ interior offensive linemen, having earned an average or better grade from PFF in three seasons since being drafted in the 2nd round in 2019 (47 of 49 possible starts), including a career best 31st ranked finish on PFF in 15 starts in 2021. He should have another solid season. The Broncos also bring back reserve Netane Muti, who has been underwhelming in four career starts in two seasons since the Broncos took him in the 6th round in 2020 and who will likely be further down on the depth chart on a deeper offensive line this season.

The best player on this offensive line is left tackle Garett Bolles, who finished 26th among offensive tackles on PFF last season, after a 4th ranked season in 2020. Bolles was a first round pick in 2017 and struggled mightily with penalties early in his career, so much so that the Broncos declined his 5th year option for 2021, despite the fact that he allowed just 14 sacks in 48 starts in his first three seasons in the league. 

Bolles’ 45 penalties from 2017-2019 led the league over that stretch, but he’s committed just 15 in two seasons since, leading to the Broncos keeping him on a 4-year, 68 million dollar extension long-term. As long as he can continue to avoid penalties, Bolles should remain one of the best offensive tackles in the league again in 2022. He’ll be backed up by Calvin Anderson, a 2019 undrafted free agent who has just five career starts, but who flashed a lot of potential in 172 snaps last season. This is a deep offensive line without any clear weaknesses in the starting five.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

The strength of this offense last season was their running game, as they had a pair of running backs in Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams who both were effective on over 200 carries, leading the team to a 4.45 YPC average, 10th best in the NFL. It looked like the Broncos would lose Gordon this off-season, but they re-signed him as a free agent and they did so relatively cheaply, on a 1-year, 2.5 million dollar deal. A second round pick last season, Williams could take on a larger percentage of the carries in year two and the Broncos are unlikely to rely on their running backs as much with Russell Wilson being added, but both backs should still have a significant role on this offense and they could find more running room now that the passing game is more of a downfield threat.

Gordon turned his 203 carries into 918 yards (4.52 YPC) and 8 touchdowns and ranked 16th in the NFL in carry success rate (55%), while Williams had a slightly lower YPC average on an identical amount of carries, rushing for 903 yards and 4 touchdowns (4.45 YPC) and a lower carry success rate (48%), but averaged more yards after contact than Gordon (3.42 vs. 3.12), broke more tackles (63 vs. 48). and was the more effective player in the passing game (1.21 yards per route run vs. 0.86). Overall, both finished above average on PFF, with Gordon ranking 15th among running backs on PFF and Williams ranking 18th at the position.

Gordon is a 7-year veteran who has surpassed at least 150 carries in every season in the league, rushing for 4.16 YPC and 53 touchdowns on 1,477 career carries. He used to be used more in the passing game earlier in his career with the Chargers (284 career catches for 2,244 yards and 12 touchdowns), but has not been as involved since joining the Broncos two off-seasons ago. Williams figures to be the primary passing down back again, but both players will play a big role in both situations. The Broncos also have Mike Boone as the #3 running back and he’s averaged 5.52 YPC on 75 career carries in four seasons in the league. He could be a decent fill-in if either running back missed time with injury. This is a talented backfield.

Grade: A-

Edge Defenders

The Broncos finished last season 10th in defensive efficiency, which is even more impressive when you consider that arguably their three best players and their three highest graded players on PFF all didn’t finish the season with the team, with Alexander Johnson (323 snaps) and Josey Jewell (82 snaps) going down for the season with injury and Von Miller (328 snaps) getting traded to the Rams for a second and third round pick, ahead of his pending free agency this off-season. 

The Broncos replaced Miller by signing ex-Cowboy Randy Gregory to a 5-year, 70 million dollar deal with 28 million guaranteed in free agency this off-season. Gregory comes with plenty of risk, as a soon-to-be-30-year-old who missed all of 2017 and 2019 with suspension and who has never played more than 14 games or 457 snaps in a season due to disciplinary and durability problems, but Gregory has been heavily effective when on the field, especially as a pass rusher, and he could prove to be a good value if he can keep on his recent play. 

For his career, Gregory has had a 12.7% pressure rate and he’s been especially good over the past two seasons since getting his life on track, totaling 9.5 sacks, 20 hits, and a 13.9% pressure rate in 22 games, while finishing 11th and 18th among edge defenders in overall grade on PFF in the two seasons respectively. He’s also missed 11 games over that stretch and it’s unclear if he can hold up as the 600-700 snaps per season type player that the Broncos are paying him to be, but he could easily prove to be a worthwhile risk.

Gregory will start opposite Bradley Chubb, who is coming off of a very disappointing season, being limited to 268 snaps in 7 games by injury and struggling when on the field, with 0 sacks, 4 hits, and a 6.9% pressure rate. Chubb also was limited to 233 snaps in 2019 by injury, but the 2018 5th overall pick has shown a lot of potential when healthy, totaling 19.5 sacks, 19 hits, and a 13.0% pressure rate in 30 games between 2018 and 2020, and he’s still only going into his age 26 season, so he has a lot of bounce back potential. He also has all the financial incentive in the world to perform this season, going into the final year of his rookie deal, with a big payday in free agency likely awaiting him if he can bounce back. Gregory and Chubb both come with risk, but they have the potential to be an above average edge defender duo.

The Broncos have good edge defender depth too, especially after using their second round pick on Oklahoma edge defender Nik Bonitto. The Broncos also have Jonathon Cooper (457 snaps) and Malik Reed (737 snaps), who saw significant roles last season with Chubb missing a lot of the season and Miller getting traded. Cooper was a 7th round pick in 2021 and, while he didn’t show much as a pass rusher as a rookie, with 2.5 sacks, 4 hits, and a 8.7% pressure rate, he excelled as a run defender. I don’t know if he’ll ever develop into a starter, which rarely happens from a 7th round pick, but he should provide decent depth again. Reed, an undrafted free agent in 2019, is a similar player, generally earning above average grades from PFF for his run defense, but totaling just 15 sacks, 17 hits, and a 7.8% pressure rate in 45 career games. This group has a lot of potential and depth, but their starters come with a lot of risk.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

Shelby Harris was traded to the Seahawks in the Russell Wilson trade and the Broncos will miss him, especially as a pass rusher, with him totaling 6 sacks, 5 hits, and a 9.0% pressure rate last season, a great rate for a player who almost exclusively lines up on the interior. With Harris gone, Dre’Mont Jones will likely be the Broncos’ top interior defender, after playing 560 snaps and 614 snaps over the past two seasons respectively. The 2019 3rd round pick doesn’t hold up well against the run, but he’s an effective interior pass rusher, with 15.5 sacks, 13 hits, and a 9.3% pressure rate in three seasons in the league. He also may still have untapped potential, only heading into his age 25 season.

Harris will effectively be replaced by free agent signing DJ Jones, who comes over from the 49ers on a 3-year, 30 million dollar deal. A 6th round pick in 2017, Jones has developed into a capable player and is coming off the best season of his career, playing 550 snaps and earning above average grades for his run defense and pass rush. If he keeps that up, he should be worth what the Broncos are paying him, but, prior to last season, he had never earned more than a middling overall grade from PFF for a season, nor had he ever played more than 420 snaps in a season, so he’s not a guarantee to repeat the best season of his career. Either way, Jones should have a significant role as a starter alongside Dre’Mont Jones.

The Broncos didn’t retain reserve Shamar Stephen (393 snaps), but they will bring back fellow reserves Mike Purcell (361 snaps) and DeShawn Williams (386 snaps). Purcell is strictly a base package nose tackle and has just a 3.3% career pressure rate, but he’s earned above average grades from PFF for his run defense in three straight seasons and the Broncos won’t need him to play much more than the limited role he’s played in recent years. Going into his age 31 season, there’s some possibility his run defense drops off, but he has a good chance to remain a useful rotational player.

Williams, meanwhile, is more of a pass rusher than a run stopper (career 7.7% pressure rate), but he declined across the board in 2021 and finished below average on PFF, after a surprise breakout year on 436 snaps in 2020. Williams played just 57 career snaps between going undrafted in 2015 and his 2020 breakout season, so there was always skepticism that he would be able to repeat that performance. Now going into his age 30 season, he has a little bounce back potential, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he kept struggling, especially against the run.

The Broncos also have some young prospects competing for reserve roles, as they drafted Eyloma Uwazurike in the 4th round and Matt Henningsen in the 6th round in this past draft and have 2020 3rd round pick McTelvin Agim. Agim has shown nothing in two years in the league, struggling mightily across just 231 career snaps, and the selection of two defensive linemen in this year’s draft isn’t a good sign for Agim’s long-term chances, but he still theoretically has upside. None of the young players figure to see significant action early in the season, but they could be forced into a larger role by injury. This group will miss Shelby Harris, but it’s still not a bad group overall.

Grade: B

Linebackers

Off ball linebacker is the position where the Broncos were the most affected by injury last season, as every down linebackers Josey Jewell and AJ Johnson both played at a high level when on the field, but were limited to 82 snaps in two games and 323 snaps in six games respectively. Both were free agents this off-season and the Broncos only retained Jewell, replacing Johnson with ex-Eagle Alex Singleton. A late bloomer who didn’t play a defensive snap between going undrafted in 2015 and his first career defensive action in 2020, Singleton has plenty of tackles over the past two seasons (257 total), but he struggles mightily in coverage and has only earned middling overall grades from PFF in both seasons, despite his high tackle totals.

Singleton was only signed to a 1-year deal worth 1.115 million, so it’s possible he could see some competition from the Broncos’ reserve linebackers, who were forced into larger roles last season in the absence of Jewell and Johnson. Baron Browning led this group with 528 snaps played last season, doing so in just 10 games, and he held up pretty well for a third round rookie, earning a middling grade from PFF. He will probably be a reserve, but has the best shot of anyone to push Singleton for a starting role.

Justin Strnad (314 snaps) and Jonas Griffith (255 snaps) also played significant roles for this team down the stretch. Griffith, undrafted in 2020, flashed as a run stuffer in his first career action, but didn’t hold up as well in coverage and would be a projection to a larger role, so I wouldn’t expect a significant snap total from him, while Strnad, a 5th round pick in 2020, struggled mightily in the first significant action of his career and would not seem to be a strong candidate for a larger role. Still, with Browning in the mix as a reserve option, the Broncos have better linebacker depth than most teams.

Josey Jewell, meanwhile, re-signed on a 2-year, 11 million dollar deal this off-season, so he should be locked into his role as an every down linebacker. If Jewell plays like he did last season before he got hurt, when he was PFF’s 7th ranked off ball linebacker across the first two weeks of the season, then he’ll be a steal at that price. While that’s unlikely, as he’s never shown that over the course of a full season, even if he plays like he did in 2020 he should be a good value.

In 2020, he finished 17th overall among off ball linebackers on PFF and played the 14th most snaps by an off ball linebacker with 1,011, showing himself to be the kind of linebacker who can hold up in coverage and against the run. It’s concerning that he’s coming off of a significant injury, but he had missed just one game in three seasons prior to last season and is still in the prime of his career in his age 28 season, so he isn’t a major injury risk. He elevates an overall middling linebacking corps, albeit one with above average depth.

Grade: B

Secondary

With Von Miller no longer with the team, the best player on this defense is probably safety Justin Simmons, who has consistently been one of the best players in the league at his position over the past three seasons, finishing 1st, 9th, and 18th among safeties on PFF over the past three seasons respectively. The 2016 3rd round pick also finished in the top-30 among safeties in two of his first three seasons in the league too, before breaking out as an elite safety in 2019. Still only going into his age 29 season, having not missed a game in four seasons, Simmons should remain one of the top safeties in the league again in 2022 and could be even better than in 2021, which was actually a down year compared to 2019 and 2020.

Kareem Jackson was once an elite safety alongside Simmons, finishing 5th, 8th, and 6th at his position on PFF in 2018, 2019, and 2020 respectively, 2018 with the Texans and then 2019 and 2020 with the Broncos, but he’s getting up there in age, going into his age 34 season, and dropped off significantly in 2021, finishing as PFF’s 88th ranked safety out of 98 eligible. As a result, Jackson had to take a paycut down to 2 million this off-season and he may not even be guaranteed his starting spot. 

Caden Sterns was the third safety as a 5th round rookie last season and, while he was nondescript on 311 snaps, the Broncos may view him as a future starter and he could take Jackson’s starting job with a strong pre-season. The Broncos also used a 5th round pick on Jamar Johnson last year and a 4th round pick on Delarrin Turner-Yell in this year’s draft, but Turner-Yell would likely be overmatched in significant playing time as a rookie, while Johnson didn’t get on the field for a defensive snap as a rookie, so it’s unlikely either plays a big role this season. Jackson is the favorite to keep his job and may have some bounce back potential, but he also could decline even more or he could cede his starting job to an inexperienced young player.

At cornerback, the Broncos made a couple changes, with a pair of players who played significant roles last season, Kyle Fuller (719 snaps) and Bryce Callahan (504 snaps), no longer with the team. Fuller struggled mightily last season though, finishing 127th out of 134 eligible cornerbacks on PFF, so losing him will be addition by subtraction, while the Broncos made a lateral move to replace Callahan with K’Waun Williams, signed as a free agent from the 49ers on a 2-year, 5.2 million dollar deal.

Like Callahan, Williams is an undersized and injury prone cornerback who excels on the slot, where the 5-9 185 pounder has played 86.6% of his career snaps. Williams never played in all 16 games once in eight seasons in the league and has missed 38 games total in his career, but he’s also earned an average or better grade from PFF in every season. Going into his age 31 season, there’s some concern that he’s coming off of a career worst grade from PFF in 2021, only earning a middling grade across 647 snaps, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he continued declining, but he also could remain a solid slot option for at least another season.

The Broncos didn’t replace Fuller, so, instead, they’ll be hoping they can get a healthier season from starting cornerback Ronald Darby, who missed 6 games last season. That’s probably wishful thinking though, as Darby has been injury prone throughout his career like Williams and Callahan, missing 29 games in 7 seasons in the league, including 26 over the past 5 seasons, while only playing in every game once. Darby is generally an above average player when healthier, finishing above average on PFF in 5 of 7 seasons in the league, but he’s also struggled through injuries in the past, resulting in some poor play on the field, especially in 2019, when he was PFF’s 129th ranked cornerback out of 135 eligible. He’s talented, but not the most reliable player.

If Darby misses time, he’ll likely be replaced by 2020 3rd round pick Michael Ojemudia, but he struggled mightily across 852 snaps as a rookie, finishing 114th out of 136 eligible cornerbacks on PFF, before only playing 85 snaps last season. He could face competition from 4th round rookie Damarri Mathis for the top reserve outside cornerback role, but Mathis also would likely struggle if he had to play significant snaps as a rookie. 

Williams, meanwhile, will likely be backed up by 2020 undrafted free agent Essang Bassey, who struggled across 382 snaps as a rookie, before playing just 11 snaps last season. The Broncos also signed veteran Blessuan Austin, who struggled 16 games with the Jets from 2019-2020, but struggled so much in 2020 that he played just 149 snaps in 2021. The Broncos have questionable depth for a team with injury prone starters.

The Broncos’ best cornerback and de facto #1 cornerback will likely be Patrick Surtain, who they selected 9th overall in the 2021 NFL Draft. Surtain joined a group of veteran cornerbacks and only played 16 snaps in week one, but moved into the starting lineup week two and started the rest of the way except one game he missed, earning a slightly above average grade from PFF across 900 snaps in the process. 

Surtain has the upside to be better in year two and a big breakout year is certainly a possibility, given his immense upside, still only in his age 22 season. There are some questions in this secondary, with Williams and Darby being injury prone, Kareem Jackson coming to the end of his career, and the depth being questionable, but Patrick Surtain and Justin Simmons lead a group that has the upside to be above average if enough things go right.

Grade: B

Special Teams

The Broncos had one of the worst special teams units in the league last season, finishing 30th in special teams DVOA. Kicker Brandon McManus and punter Sam Martin had solid seasons, but they didn’t have a single core special teamer finish in the top-50 among special teamers on PFF and their return game was among the worst in the league, especially their kickoff return unit, which ranked dead last with just 16.2 yards per return on the season. 

The Broncos did add Montrell Washington, who scored five times in his collegiate career, albeit against underwhelming competition at Samford, but, aside from that, not much has changed in this group, with the Broncos still lacking any high level core special teamers. Especially if Washington doesn’t make much of an impact as a rookie, this could remain among the worst special teams units in the league this season and it could be tough for Washington to make an impact if he doesn’t get help from his supporting cast.

Grade: C

Conclusion

The Broncos were a decent team last season, despite being one of the most injury affected teams in the league. This season, they should be healthier and they get a big upgrade under center with Russell Wilson replacing Teddy Bridgewater. Their defense probably won’t be as good this season, because former head coach Vic Fangio got the most out of that unit and is no longer with the team, but their offense should be a lot better and could be one of the best in the league, led by new coach Nathaniel Hackett, who was previously the offensive coordinator in Green Bay.

The Broncos are a legitimate contender, but unfortunately they play in the much tougher AFC and share a division with two of the best teams in the league in the Chargers and Chiefs, as well as another playoff contender in the Raiders. The Broncos are well-positioned to at least get a wild card berth, but they’ll have a hard time getting through the loaded AFC in the playoffs. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Final Prediction: The Broncos should be a better team this season with Russell Wilson providing a significant upgrade under center, but the Broncos figure to regress on defense and it’s a tough numbers game for a wild card spot in the AFC, in the toughest division in football, with at least the Chiefs and Chargers being significantly better than the Broncos.

Prediction: 9-8, 3rd in AFC West

Atlanta Falcons 2022 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2022 NFL Season Previews, Falcons

Quarterback

Last off-season, the Falcons had the option to completely rebuild. Coming off of a 4-12 season the year before, the Falcons got the 4th overall pick in a talented quarterback draft and could have chosen a successor for Matt Ryan, who was going into his 14th season with the Falcons in 2021. Had they taken someone like Mac Jones or Justin Fields, they could have potentially had a long-term quarterback of the future and one at an inexpensive cost, very important for a team that has lacked financial flexibility in free agency for years. 

The Falcons also probably could have traded Matt Ryan for a first round pick in an off-season where a slightly younger, but arguably less accomplished at the time Matt Stafford went for two first round picks. Instead, they picked an in-between approach, using the 4th overall pick to get Matt Ryan an explosive young receiver in Kyle Pitts, but then turning around and trading his long-time top target Julio Jones to the Titans a couple months after the draft for a 2022 draft pick.

The Julio Jones trade looked like a smart move in a vacuum. They were able to secure a 2022 2nd round pick for a player who was going into his age 32 season, an age when many elite wide receivers see significant drop offs, and who had become increasingly injury prone in recent years. That move looked even better when Jones bottomed out with a 31/434/1 slash line in 10 games in his lone season in Tennessee and now remains unsigned as a free agent. 

However, it was a weird combination of moves to keep an aging quarterback instead of trading him at the highest his value would likely ever be again, a move presumably made because the Falcons felt they could compete in 2021, and then trading away his long-time top target, which is a rebuilding move that doesn’t give them nearly the same financial flexibility as replacing Matt Ryan with a quarterback on a rookie contract would have.

The result in 2021 was a Falcons team that went just 7-10 and that was even worse than their record suggested, as their 7 wins all came by 8 points or fewer against non-playoff qualifiers, while their 10 losses came by an average of 17.9 points per game, with just two of their losses coming by 8 points or fewer, both also against non-playoff qualifiers. Essentially, they didn’t play a competitive game against an above average opponent all season. Their efficiency ratings were all below average across the board as well, as they finished 24th, 25th, 22nd, and 29th in offensive, defensive, special teams, and overall efficiency, and it’s not even like they suffered a ridiculously high amount of injuries, actually having the 3rd fewest adjusted games lost in the league.

This off-season, the Falcons seemed like they were just going to run back the same team, once again without the cap space to make major upgrades in free agency. There were no real rumors early in the off-season that the Falcons would look to move on from Ryan and when Washington traded two third round picks for Carson Wentz, an inferior and more expensive quarterback, it didn’t seem like the Falcons intended to move Ryan. 

However, the Falcons apparently spent the early off-season flirting with trading for Deshaun Watson and then when he went to Cleveland, the Falcons decided to trade Ryan instead of trying to repair the relationship with him and got just a third round pick for him from the Colts, with most teams out of the market for a quarterback at this point in the off-season. The Falcons interest in Watson made sense, but it’s tough to understand why they didn’t trade Matt Ryan earlier in the off-season when there were more available suitors if they knew there was a strong likelihood they’re going to be moving on from him at some point this off-season. 

Even more puzzling was the Falcons hanging on to him for 2021, a highly forgettable campaign, rather than trading him for more of a return a year ago, only to then sell him when his value was at its lowest. Making matters even worse, this was a much worse quarterback draft than a year ago. The Falcons wisely didn’t waste their 8th overall pick on one of the quarterbacks from this year’s draft, instead signing Marcus Mariota as a veteran stopgap and reclamation project and then using a third round pick on University of Cincinnati quarterback Desmond Ridder, a developmental prospect who needs a lot of work, but who could develop into a starter long-term. 

Mariota reunites with his former Titans offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, now the head coach of the Falcons, but it’s a little surprising Smith wanted to bring Mariota in, considering he only overlapped as coordinator with Mariota as starting quarterback for the six starts Mariota made to start the 2019 season, when he played some of the worst football of his career and led the Titans to a 2-4 start, only to see the team go 9-4 the rest of the way in route to an AFC Championship game appearance. 

Mariota has had better years and even won a playoff game, but he was never more than a middling starting quarterback in Tennessee and he never made all 16 starts. He spent the past two seasons attempting just 20 passes as one of the best backup quarterbacks in the league with the Raiders and he deserves another chance as a starter, but he’s a pretty low upside option who will be a serviceable starter at best. Mariota is good enough to win games when he has talent around him, but he’s not in a favorable situation on this Falcons team. 

Whether through injury or ineffectiveness, Mariota is likely to cede starts to Ridder at some point this season, even if it’s just the Falcons wanting to get a look at him in a few otherwise meaningless starts late in the season. Ridder will likely be overmatched in year one though, leaving Mariota, by default, as their best option for 2022. Even in a best case scenario, Mariota figures to be a downgrade from Matt Ryan, who, even though he had declined from his peak form, still finished as PFF’s 18th ranked quarterback last season, on an otherwise hapless Falcons team. 

Grade: C+

Receiving Corps

In addition to the quarterback downgrade, the Falcons also had a tough situation in the receiving corps this off-season. When Julio Jones was traded, Kyle Pitts and Calvin Ridley were supposed to be the focus of their receiving corps long-term, but, while Pitts had a strong rookie season, Ridley was limited to just a 31/281/2 slash line in five games last season before missing the rest of the season for personal reasons. The Falcons were expecting to get Ridley back for 2022, but instead he got suspended for the entire season for gambling. Making matters worse, Russell Gage, who was their top wide receiver last season in the absence of Ridley with a 66/770/4 slash line, signed with the Buccaneers this off-season.

With Jones, Ridley, and Gage all gone, Falcons’ top returning wide receiver is Olamide Zaccheaus, a 2019 undrafted free agent who finished last season with a 31/406/3 slash line in the first significant action of his career, so the Falcons had to essentially rebuild their receiving corps from scratch this off-season. The Falcons made a big investment in their receiving corps when they used their 8th overall pick on USC wide receiver Drake London, who gives them another promising young receiver along with Kyle Pitts who the Falcons can hopefully build their receiving corps around long-term. However, aside from taking London, the Falcons mostly just added bottom of the roster types in free agency and will hope to have found some diamonds in the rough and that they get better than expected play from this group.

Veterans Damiere Byrd, Bryan Edwards, Auden Tate, and Geronimo Allison were all added this off-season and they all have some experience, but the highest receiving yardage total from any of them, across a combined 19 seasons in the league, came from Damiere Byrd when he had just a 47/604/1 slash line in 2020. That production mostly came on volume too, as he had just a 1.29 yards per route run average for that season, which quickly dropped to 0.84 in a 26/329/1 season with the Bears in 2021. In total, the 7-year veteran averages just 1.09 yards per route run for his career and, now going into his age 29 season, it’s unlikely he has any untapped upside.

Bryan Edwards probably has the most upside of the newcomers, as he was a 3rd round pick just a couple years ago in 2020 and had a decently productive second season in the league, posting a 34/571/3 slash line, after a 11/193/1 slash line as a rookie. He wasn’t particularly efficient last season though, averaging just 1.12 yards per route run, and his production was mostly the result of being forced into action in a thin receiving corps. With the Raiders finding upgrades this off-season, Edwards was shipped off to the Falcons for just a late round pick. He theoretically has the upside to still develop into a solid starter, but he hasn’t shown that yet and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he never panned out.

Auden Tate also has some upside, as the 2018 7th round pick had a 40/575/1 slash line with 1.41 yards per route run in 2019 and has a 1.35 yards per route run average for his career, but he’s been buried on the Bengals depth chart the past two seasons, totaling just 17 catches. The Bengals have the best wide receiver depth chart in the NFL, so it’s not exactly a knock on Tate that he couldn’t earn more playing time in the past two seasons, and he still has upside, only going into his age 25 season, but he’s essentially just a flyer for the Falcons. 

Allison, meanwhile, was a decent reserve receiver with the Packers from 2016-2019, but never caught more than 34 passes in a season and hasn’t caught a pass since 2019, opting out in 2020 and unable to climb the Lions’ weak wide receiver depth chart in 2021. Once again in a weak wide receiver depth chart, Allison has opportunity, but isn’t even a lock to make the final roster. Frank Darby, a 2021 6th round pick, could also be in the mix for playing time, despite just one rookie year catch. The Falcons will be relying on a rookie #1 wide receiver and a bunch of question marks behind him on the depth chart.

Given the state of the Falcons’ wide receivers, it shouldn’t surprise anyone if tight end Kyle Pitts leads the team in receiving for the second straight year, after posting a 68/1026/1 slash line as a rookie. Pitts benefitted from the 5th most targets in the league by a tight end with 110, but his 2.02 yards per route run average also ranked 5th at his position and he averaged 9.33 yards per target on a team that otherwise averaged 6.67 yards per pass attempt. 

Rookie tight ends usually take a year at least to adapt to the NFL, but Pitts is no ordinary tight end, becoming the highest draft player at his position ever and playing more than two thirds of his snaps in the slot or lined up out wide as a rookie. His blocking could use some work, but he has a sky high upside, not even turning 22 until October, and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see him take another step forward in year two, even with suspect quarterback play. He looks like he’ll be one of the best receiving tight ends in the league for years to come and he has the upside to be one of the best receivers in the league regardless of position.

With Pitts playing a lot of wide receiver as a rookie, backup tight ends Hayden Hurst (409 snaps) and Lee Smith (310 snaps) both saw significant action, but neither were retained this off-season. Hurst was underwhelming, averaging just 1.00 yards per route run and having limited success as a blocker, so he can be replaced pretty easily by free agent acquisition Anthony Firkser. Firkser isn’t much of a blocker, but has a solid 1.47 yards per route run average as a reserve in five seasons in the league, with his best season coming in 2020 when Arthur Smith was his offensive coordinator in Tennessee, posting a 39/387/1 slash line on 1.67 yards per route run. Firkser figures to at least have somewhat of a passing game role, given the lack of other options on this team. 

The Falcons will miss the now retired Lee Smith though, as he was an above average blocker and the Falcons don’t have a clear replacement, with bottom of the roster talent Parker Hesse currently penciled in as the 3rd tight end. Even in a best case scenario where Pitts takes a step forward, London has a strong rookie year, and several others exceed expectations, it’s hard to see this being a significantly above average receiving corps and the downside is enormous, given their lack of proven pass catchers.

Grade: C+

Running Backs

With all of the problems the Falcons had in the receiving corps last season, they relied heavily on their lead running back Cordarrelle Patterson as a receiver out of the backfield. A converted wide receiver who can line up all over the formation, Patterson had the best receiving total of his 9-year career last season in his first season as a full-time lead running back, posting a 52/548/5 slash line. His 2.24 yards per route run average also well exceeded his career average of 1.39 yards per route run.

Patterson actually wasn’t that impressive as a runner though, taking 153 carries for a 4.04 YPC and 6 touchdowns, while ranking 40th out of 50 eligible running backs with a 45% carry success rate, and now he heads into his age 31 season, an age where skill position players, especially running backs, tend to see a significant drop off. The Falcons don’t have a better option, so I would still expect him to be the lead back, but I wouldn’t expect an efficient rushing season from him and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see his receiving production drop off as well, given his age and the fact that he is coming off of the best receiving year of his career.

Despite Patterson being a shaky option as a lead back, the Falcons didn’t do much to upgrade their backfield this off-season, replacing veteran backup Mike Davis with a comparable veteran in Damien Williams and using a 5th round pick on BYU running back Tyler Allgeier. Williams averaged 4.49 YPC on 111 carries as the de facto lead back for the Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs in 2019, but he opted out of the 2020 season and, upon his return, was ineffective as a reserve with the Bears, while receiving just 56 touches in 12 games. 

Williams has just 334 carries in eight seasons in the league with an underwhelming 4.18 YPC average and now heads into his age 30, so he’s an underwhelming option, even as a #2 running back. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him surpassed by the rookie Allgeier at some point this season. Fifth round running backs tend to have more of a rookie year impact than fifth round picks at any other position, so Allgeier could provide some value for the Falcons in year one, but the fact that he has a chance to earn a big role says more about the rest of this position group than it says about him.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

The Falcons also had struggles on the offensive line last season. They were an above average run blocking team, but finished as PFF’s 2nd worst ranking offensive line in pass protection, leading to Matt Ryan being pressured at a 39.7% rate, 6th highest in the NFL, despite a faster than average time to throw. Despite that, the Falcons didn’t make any changes upfront and will bring back the same starting five offensive linemen. They may benefit from continuity, but this group also missed just two games combined all last season, so they benefited from great health and continuity and still produced poor results.

The player who most needs to improve is left guard Jalen Mayfield, a 2021 3rd round pick who struggled mightily as a rookie, finishing 83rd out of 90 eligible guards on PFF in overall grade, with his worst play coming in pass protection, finishing 88th among eligible guards in pass protection grade. He could be better in year two, even if it’s only by default, but there’s no guarantee he ever develops into a capable starter. If he continues to struggle, he could lose his job to one of the two veteran reserves the Falcons added this off-season, Germain Ifedi and Elijah Wilkinson. 

Ifedi and Wilkinson have primarily played tackle in their career, but 24 of Ifedi’s 83 career starts came at guard, while Wilkinson has played 7 of his 27 career starts at guard, so they have some experience on the inside. Neither has ever been more than a middling starter in their career though, regardless of their position, and both have also struggled throughout long stretches of their career, so neither would be a strong starting job and would likely only see action in a worst case scenario where Mayfield doesn’t improve or injuries strike at other positions.

The Falcons also used a 4th round pick in the 2021 NFL Draft on Drew Dalman, who only played 68 snaps as a rookie, which came at center, but he could also push for a role at guard, where he saw some action in college. Dalman could also potentially push to start at center if incumbent Matt Hennessy struggles. Hennessy, a third round pick in 2020, broke out as a high level run blocker last season, finishing 3rd among centers on PFF in run blocking grade, but he finished 34th out of 41 eligible in pass protection, after struggling in both aspects on 225 snaps as a rookie. His run blocking is a significant asset, but his pass protection may never develop and, if he slips as a run blocker, he could become a liability overall.

The other three starting jobs are likely all locked in, with Jake Matthews, Chris Lindstrom, and Kaleb McCary remaining the starters at left tackle, right guard, and right tackle respectively. All three are also former first round picks. McCary has mostly been a disappointment thus far, making 45 starts in three seasons in the league, but never being more than a middling starter and generally struggling in pass protection. He’s going into his age 27 season now, so he’s running out of time to break out as the kind of player who was worth a first round pick. The Falcons seem to be underwhelmed with him as well, declining his 5th year option for 2023 which would have guaranteed him 13.202 million, but they also don’t really have a good replacement, so he figures to keep his job for at least one more season.

Matthews and Lindstrom, on the other hand, have developed into above average starters. Matthews was drafted back in 2014 and has been an above average starter for a while, earning above average grades from PFF in every season except his rookie year, while making 128 of a possible 129 starts in his career. He’s going into his age 30 season, so he could start to decline soon, but he hasn’t shown any signs of declining yet, finishing 38th among offensive tackles on PFF in 2021. He’ll likely remain an above average starter for at least another season.

Lindstrom, meanwhile, was a first round selection in 2019, breaking out with a 21st ranked season among guards on PFF in 2020, after an injury plagued rookie year. Lindstrom then improved even further in year three in 2021, finishing 6th among guards on PFF and, still only going into his age 25 season, he looks likely to become one of the better guards in the league for years to come. Development is not always linear and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Lindstrom slip up a little bit compared to his dominant 2021 campaign, but he should remain an above average starter at the very least. Matthews and Lindstrom elevate this offensive line, but this still looks like a middling group at best overall.

Grade: B-

Edge Defenders

One of the Falcons’ biggest weaknesses for years has been their pass rush, as they somehow haven’t had more than 39 sacks in a season since 2004. In 2021, they had a league worst 18 sacks and their edge defenders were particularly a weakness, as they didn’t have a single edge defender who earned even an average grade from PFF and only one edge defender had more than a single sack, with Dante Fowler leading the team with just 4.5 sacks. 

The Falcons overhauled this group this off-season, with just one of the seven edge defenders who played a snap for them last season returning for 2022, but that doesn’t necessarily mean this is going to be a significantly better group. They used a pair of draft picks on the position, taking Arnold Ebiketie in the second round and DeAngelo Malone in the third round, and, while they could develop into above average players long-term, they could easily struggle to make an impact in year one. 

On top of that, their only veteran addition was former Giant Lorenzo Carter, who they added on a 1-year, 3.5 million dollar contract this off-season. He’s a solid run stopper, but has been pretty underwhelming as a pass rusher in his career, with 14.5 sacks, 25 hits, and a 9.6% pressure rate in 49 career games (33 starts). Now in his age 27 season, he’s likely reached his peak, so I don’t expect him to be significantly better with his new team.

Their only holdover is 2021 5th round pick Adetokunbo Ogundeji. He could be better in year two, but he was a big liability on 527 rookie year snaps, finishing 107th among 129 eligible edge defenders on PFF, especially struggling as a pass rusher, finishing dead last eligible edge defenders on PFF in pass rush grade and managing a pathetic 4.2% pressure rate. He should only play an early down role, even in a thin position group. The Falcons are counting on big contributions from rookies, but may not get it. They should be better by default compared to last year’s group, which was arguably the worst in the league, but this is still a big position of weakness.

Grade: C

Interior Defenders

One veteran the Falcons could have moved on from this off-season and chose not to was interior defender Grady Jarrett. Jarrett was a dominant interior defender in his prime, finishing 15th, 6th, 4th, and 16th respectively from 2017-2020, but their decision to retain him doesn’t seem to fit with the overall direction of this team. Jarrett dropped off significantly last season, falling to 33rd among interior defenders on PFF, and, while he’s still only going into his age 29 season and could easily bounce back in 2022, he’ll be in his 30s by the time the Falcons are ready to be competitive again. 

Trading him for a draft pick ahead of a 16.5 million dollar salary in the final year of his contract in 2022 would have made sense, but the Falcons instead opted to keep him on a 3-year, 50.47 million dollar extension, which makes him the 7th highest paid interior defender in the league. He may have bounce back potential, but if he doesn’t bounce back or continues to decline, Jarrett will prove to be an overpay on that extension. Even if he does bounce back, Jarrett will likely be on the decline by the time this team is back in contention, with the Falcons starting on what figures to be a multi-year rebuild.

Jarrett was the Falcons’ only interior defender to earn even an average grade from PFF last season and they didn’t make any notable additions to this group, instead hoping to get better play from their young players at the position. Marlon Davidson was a 2nd round pick by the Falcons in 2020, but has played very little thus far in his career, playing just 402 snaps total in 19 career games, while showing very little when on the field as well. He still has upside, only in his age 24 season, and he’ll get significantly more action in 2022 out of necessity, but his career is off to a very unimpressive start and he’s no guarantee to ever develop into an even average starter.

Davidson will compete for playing time with 2021 5th round pick Ta’Quon Graham, who finished 117th out of 144 eligible interior defenders as a rookie on 309 snaps, and Anthony Rush, a 2019 undrafted free agent who is already on his 7th team and who struggled on a career high 250 snaps in 2021. The 6-5 350 pound Rush is the only true nose tackle the Falcons have, so he figures to at least have a base package role in the Falcons’ 3-4 defense, but he is unlikely to see significant more action than he did last season and he could easily continue struggling, even in a limited role. Outside of Jarrett, this is a very unproven group.

Grade: C

Linebackers

The Falcons had a pair of linebackers both play over 1,000 snaps last season, but Foyesade Oluokun (1,148 snaps) and Deion Jones (1,070 snaps) both struggled mightily, finishing 69th and 88th respectively out of 94 eligible off ball linebackers on PFF. As a result, the Falcons have tried to overhaul this group this off-season. Jones is still on the roster, but there is reportedly a strong likelihood he will be traded or released at some point this off-season and Oluokun was not retained as a free agent. Meanwhile, veteran Rashaan Evans was added in free agency and Montana State’s Troy Andersen was added in the second round of the draft.

Even with Andersen and Evans being added and Jones coming off of a terrible season, it is a bit surprising that the Falcons are trying to move on from Jones. He’s still only going into his age 28 season and was once one of the Falcons’ best defensive players for years, with his best season coming in 2017, when he finished 4th among off ball linebackers on PFF, and a 16th ranked finish as recently as 2020. Jones’ salary is also fully guaranteed for 2022, with a 4 million dollar roster bonus having already been paid out, and, while the Falcons would get a little bit of cap relief by cutting him after June 1st and could get a little more if his contract has offset language, he would still be on the cap for 2023 in that scenario and the Falcons would still have to pay most of his salary in 2022 to play for another team.

The Falcons would obviously love to trade him, even if it’s only for a swap of late round picks, as they would get out of his salary and would get actual cap relief in that scenario, but it’s unclear if anyone would want to take on his 9.64 million dollar salary for 2022, even if he does have bounce back potential. It doesn’t help their chances of trading him that he is coming off of off-season shoulder surgery and that teams know the Falcons are likely to cut him if he can’t be traded, making him available at a much cheaper price on the open market.

In addition to Jones’ down year last season, the Falcons reportedly are unhappy with Jones’ leadership, which is why they are looking to move on from him, but Andersen is only a rookie, while Rashaan Evans has struggled across the past three seasons, including a 73rd ranked finished among 94th eligible off ball linebackers on PFF on 445 snaps in 2021, so the Falcons would have a very shaky position group if they moved on from Jones. Especially given that they’re paying him either way, the Falcons should strongly consider keeping Jones for at least another season, unless they can find a trade partner.

If Jones is traded, Mykal Walker would become the top reserve and it’s possible he could carve out a significant role, especially if Andersen and/or Evans struggle, which is likely. A 2020 4th round pick, Walker has shown promise in two seasons in the league, but has played just 581 snaps total and would be a projection to a larger role. With or without Jones, this is a questionable group, but Jones is just one season removed from an above average season, which is way more than you can say about the rest of the group.

Grade: C

Secondary

With the Falcons’ defense struggling as a whole last season, by far their best player was top cornerback AJ Terrell, who was one of the best players in the league at his position last season, finishing as PFF’s 4th ranked cornerback. He also ranked 2nd in coverage snaps per reception allowed with 18.7 and he allowed just a 43.9% completion on 66 targets. In total, he allowed just 200 yards receiving, a ridiculous average of just 3.03 yards per attempt, and he also picked off 3 passes to 3 touchdowns allowed, with 13 pass deflections. 

Terrell is a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at last season, after a middling rookie season in 2020, but the 16th overall pick has a ton of talent and is only going into his age 24 season, so it shouldn’t be a surprise at all if he develops into one of the best cornerbacks in the league for years to come. Even if he does, he could take a little bit of a step back in 2022 after such a dominant 2021, but he should still have a strong season. The problem is none of the Falcons’ other cornerbacks earned even an average grade from PFF, so opposing passing games could easily avoid having to throw on Terrell last season. 

The Falcons attempted to fix that problem by signing veteran Casey Hayward in free agency. If Hayward plays like he did a season ago, when he was the only cornerback in the league with more snaps per reception allowed (21.0 snaps) than Terrell, he and Terrell could be one of the best cornerback duos in the league this season, but Hayward is going into his age 33 season, so a significant decline is definitely a strong possibility. 

Even if Hayward does decline though, he was PFF’s 16th ranked cornerback a year ago, his 7th finish in the top-16 in 10 seasons in the league, so he could still remain a solid starter even not at his best. He should be an obvious upgrade on Fabian Moreau, who finished as PFF’s 99th ranked cornerback out of 134 eligible as the Falcons’ #2 cornerback last season. Hayward should be a good value on a 2-year, 11 million dollar deal, even if he was a weird signing for a team otherwise rebuilding. 

Hayward’s additions leaves holdovers Isaiah Oliver, Darren Hall, and Richie Grant competing for the 3rd cornerback job, with the other two then settling in as reserves. Oliver was a starter to begin last season and made 28 starts between 2019 and 2020, but he struggled for most of his time as a starter and had his 2021 season end after four games due to a knee injury. The Falcons brought the 2018 2nd round pick back as a free agent after his rookie contract expired this off-season, but he was only brought back on a 1-year, 2.385 million dollar deal, so he won’t be guaranteed to even be the #3 cornerback.

Hall and Grant were rookies last season who saw action in Oliver’s absence, playing 283 snaps and 276 snaps respectively. Hall struggled though, finishing 129th among 134 eligible cornerbacks, not entirely surprising for a 4th round rookie. He could be better in year two, but maybe only by default and he’s no guarantee to ever develop into a solid starter. Grant, meanwhile, was a 2nd round pick last year and wasn’t terrible as a rookie, but could play more at safety in year two, unless he locks down the primary slot cornerback job.

At safety, Grant would be replacing veteran Duron Harmon, who was not retained this off-season, after finishing 77th out of 98 eligible safeties in 17 starts last season. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all if Grant were to replace him and be a noticeable upgrade. The only addition the Falcons made to this group this off-season was veteran free agent addition Dean Marlowe. Marlowe played 700 snaps with the Lions last season, but was underwhelming and, prior to last season, he was a career special teamer who had never played more than 230 defensive snaps in a season. Going into his age 30 season, he would be a very underwhelming starting option.

Holdovers Erik Harris (702 snaps) and Jaylinn Hawkins (462 snaps) will also compete for the starting jobs, even though both were mediocre last season. Harris had a larger role last season and is the more experienced player, with 42 career starts, but he’s also going into his age 32 season and has never been more than a middling starter, while Hawkins is a 2020 4th round pick who at least has upside. Hawkins is probably the favorite for one of the starting jobs, but this will be an open competition at an underwhelming position group. Terrell and Hayward are a talented cornerback duo, but this is a top heavy group with concerns at safety and concerns behind Terrell and Hayward on the cornerback depth chart.

Grade: B

Special Teams

The Falcons also had a below average special teams unit last season, ranking 22nd in special teams DVOA. Kicker Younghoe Koo is one of the best in the league, but the Falcons struggled in the punting and return game and had just one player (Keith Smith) finish in the top-50 among special teamers on PFF. The Falcons did find a new punter this off-season, but Dom Maggio is just an undrafted rookie and, aside from that, not much has changed on the Falcons’ special teams unit.

The Falcons will be hoping they can get more out of return man Avery Williams in his second season in the league, with their only other option being to overload feature back Cordarrelle Patterson with even more touches by using him on special teams as well, and Keith Smith remains their only high level core special teamer, with the Falcons largely hoping for contributions out of rookies at that position. This probably won’t be a horrible special teams unit in 2022, but they figure to be below average again.

Grade: C+

Conclusion

The Falcons were just 7-10 a year ago and they were even worse than their record suggested, with all their wins being close victories over non-playoff qualifiers and every game they played against a playoff caliber team resulting in a blowout loss. Even if they had just run back the same team as a year ago, they would likely struggle making it back to 7 wins, but the Falcons also lost a significant amount of talent this off-season, most notably long-time franchise quarterback Matt Ryan, with this team undergoing a teardown and rebuild. 

A teardown and rebuild is much needed for this team and they didn’t have a clear path to competing for a playoff spot in 2022 anyway, even if they didn’t rebuild, but the result is not going to be pretty in the short-term, with this looking like one of the worst teams in the league on paper, unsurprising considering their roster has the 2nd lowest average annual salary of any team in the league, only ahead of the also rebuilding Bears. The Falcons could easily compete for the #1 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, which could be the goal for a team that now needs to find a new franchise quarterback. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Final Prediction: The Falcons still look like one of the worst teams in the league.

Prediction: 3-14, 4th in NFC South

Los Angeles Chargers 2022 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2022 NFL Season Previews, Chargers

Quarterback

The Chargers struck gold with the 6th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, finding a franchise quarterback in Justin Herbert. Herbert actually wasn’t a starter right away, but he made his first start in week two of his rookie year as an injury replacement and hasn’t looked back. He finished his rookie season as PFF’s 16th ranked quarterback overall and completed 66.6% of his passes for an average of 7.29 YPA, 31 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, while rushing for another 234 yards and 5 touchdowns on 55 carries (4.25 YPC).

Herbert was then even better in year two, completing 65.9% of his passes for an average of 7.46 YPA, 38 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions, rushing for 302 yards and 3 touchdowns on 63 carries (4.79 YPC), and finishing as PFF’s 3rd ranked quarterback overall. His interception total might look a little concerning, but he was also the unluckiest quarterback in the league in terms of adjusted interceptions and his adjusted interception rate was 3rd best in the league, only behind Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. Even though he’s only in his age 24 season, Herbert has already established himself as one of the better quarterbacks in the entire league.

One thing Herbert hasn’t done yet is lead the Chargers to the post-season, but that hasn’t really been his fault, especially not last season, when he led the Chargers to the 3rd best offensive efficiency rating in the league. The Chargers ranked 24th in defensive efficiency and 28th in special teams efficiency, but offensive efficiency is more predictive and in terms of weighted overall efficiency they finished last season 10th, making them the 2nd highest ranked team to miss the post-season last season.

Herbert will be eligible for an extension next off-season and he’ll have a good case to push to be the highest paid quarterback in the league, but he’s still on a cheap rookie deal for now and the Chargers took full advantage of that this off-season, being aggressive in adding highly paid players this off-season, particularly on defense, to try to get as much talent around Herbert as possible while he is still cheap. I’ll get into their defensive additions more later, but their offense should remain one of the best in the league and, if they can be significantly improved on defense, the Chargers could easily be one of the better teams in the entire league in 2022.

The Chargers would obviously be in big trouble if Justin Herbert were to miss significant time with injury, but that’s especially true because Herbert’s backup is Chase Daniel, a career backup in his age 36 season who has started just 5 games in 13 seasons in the league. Assuming he can continue to stay healthy, Herbert should be an MVP candidate this season and, even if he doesn’t win it, he’s talented enough and young enough that an MVP is likely in his future.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

The Chargers didn’t make any big money additions on offense this off-season, but they did use their first round pick to add to their offensive line, taking Boston College’s Zion Johnson 17th overall and immediately plugging him in as the starting right guard. He might not make a huge impact in year one, but he has the upside to be one of the better guards in the league long-term. He’s also the second straight offensive lineman the Chargers have taken in the first round, after taking left tackle Rashawn Slater 13th overall last year, and he actually did make a big impact in year one, finishing as PFF’s 9th ranked offensive tackle in 16 starts. Development is not always linear and it wouldn’t be a surprise if Slater regressed a little bit in year two, but he could also take another step forward and, even if he doesn’t, he’s still likely to develop into one of the better left tackles in the league for years to come.

Slater was not the only new starting offensive lineman the Chargers added last off-season, as the Chargers’ offensive line was a big weakness in Herbert’s rookie season and the Chargers rightfully made upgrading it a priority before his second season. Like Slater, the Chargers’ other two additions from last off-season also made a big impact in year one, with center Corey Linsley signing on a 5-year, 62.5 million dollar deal and finishing as PFF’s 2nd ranked center in 2021 and left guard Matt Feiler signing on a 3-year, 21 million dollar deal and finishing as PFF’s 13th ranked guard. Along with Slater, they were huge upgrades for a team with one of the worst offensive lines in the league in 2020.

Linsley and Feiler are not guaranteed to play quite as well in 2022, but both have a decent chance to and both could still be valuable contributors even if they decline a little. Linsley is going into his age 31 season, but he’s coming off the two best seasons of his career, also finishing 1st among centers on PFF in 2020, so he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet. Despite only being a 5th round pick in 2014, Linsley has been an above average starter since entering the league, making 115 starts in eight seasons in the league and finishing in the top-7 among centers on PFF five times. Even if he isn’t quite as good in 2022, he should remain an above average starter.

Feiler, meanwhile, was a late bloomer, but the 2014 undrafted free agent has been at least a solid starter in all four seasons since becoming a starter in 2018, with 55 starts total in 4 seasons since. Originally a right tackle, Feiler struggled a little bit in his first season at guard in 2020, falling to 36th among guards after finishing 34th and 17th among offensive tackles in 2018 and 2019, but he bounced back in his second year at guard in 2021 and could easily continue that into 2022. He’s going into his age 30 season, which is a bit of a concern, but even if he declines a little bit, he should remain an above average starter.

With Slater, Linsley, and Feiler being added last off-season and Zion Johnson being added this off-season, the only position on this offensive line the Chargers haven’t addressed is right tackle, which remains a position of weakness. The Chargers actually did address the position in free agency two off-seasons ago, signing ex-Packer Bryan Bulaga to a 3-year, 30 million dollar deal, but he made just 11 underwhelming starts in two seasons with the Chargers due to injuries, including just a single start in 2021. With no guaranteed money left on his contract, he was predictably released this off-season ahead of his age 33 season, after being paid 19.25 million total over two seasons.

With Bulaga missing most of the 2021 season, Storm Norton was their primary starting right tackle. The 2017 undrafted free agent was mediocre in the first extended starting experience of his career (309 snaps played in his career prior to 2021), but the Chargers didn’t add any competition for him, so he’s likely to remain the starter for 2022, even if he is likely to be a liability. His biggest competition will likely come internally from Trey Pipkins, a 2019 3rd round pick who has shown some promise when on the field in his career, but who has also only played 995 snaps total in three seasons in the league. Pipkins may be an upgrade, but it’s likely whoever wins the right tackle job will be a liability. It’s also a strong possibility that both Norton and Pipkins both see starts at some point this season. This is a very strong offensive line other than the right tackle position.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

Like their offensive line, the Chargers rushing attack was also a problem in Herbert’s first season in 2020, as they ranked 30th in the NFL with 3.83 YPC, and the Chargers also improved significantly in that area in 2021, averaging 4.34 YPC, 17th in the NFL. It helped that they had better blocking, but they also got better health from their two best running backs Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson. Ekeler and Jackson averaged a combined 4.57 YPC in 2020, but they played just 19 games total with 175 combined carries, forcing #3 back Joshua Kelley into 111 carries, on which he averaged just 3.19 YPC, sinking the team’s average. 

In 2021, Ekeler and Jackson missed just three games between them and totaled 274 carries combined, leaving Kelley in his #3 back role, in which the 2020 4th round pick averaged just 3.09 YPC on 33 carries. Ekeler led the way as the feature back, the first season of his career in which he’s been a true feature back for the whole season, and he put together a very impressive season in that role, rushing for 911 yards and 12 touchdowns on 206 carries (4.42 YPC), ranking 12th with a 56% carry success rate, and adding a 70/647/8 slash line with 1.55 yards per route run has a receiver.

SInce entering the NFL, Ekeler has always shown the potential to have that kind of production as a feature back, averaging 4.74 YPC and 2.29 yards per route run in 4 seasons prior to last season, but the 2017 undrafted free agent was a part-time player early in his career and, when given a bigger workload in 2020, he missed 6 games with injury, so it took until his 5th season in the league for him to break out. An undersized back at 5-10 200, there is some concern about consistently giving Ekeler a heavy workload, but he hasn’t been terribly injury prone in his career, missing 9 games total in 5 seasons. Still, the Chargers will likely keep his carry total around 200 or so for the season again, so they can preserve him for a big passing game role and not risk overloading him.

That will leave a good amount of carries for the #2 back and right now it looks like that will be 4th round rookie Isaiah Spiller, who only needs to hold off Joshua Kelley to be the #2 back, with Jackson not being retained in free agency this off-season. Spiller wasn’t highly drafted, but it’s not uncommon for even mid-round running backs to come in and make an impact right away in year one and he could certainly be an effective player on a few carries per game. 

The Chargers could also opt to bring Jackson back as a free agent, after he impressed with 5.35 YPC on 68 carries last season, giving the 2018 7th round pick a 5.05 YPC on 206 carries for his career. The Chargers backfield would miss Austin Ekeler in a big way if he missed time because he’s both their best runner and their best receiver out of the backfield, but, if he’s healthy, he gives the Chargers one of the better all-around running backs in the league and the Chargers could have good depth behind him as well, especially if Jackson is retained.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

Herbert’s two top wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams both surpassed 1,100 yards receiving last season, making them just one of three wide receiver duos to both surpass 1,000 yards and the only one to both surpass 1,100 yards. Respectively, Allen and Williams posted slash lines of 106/1138/6 and 76/1146/9 and ranked 13rd and 12th in the NFL in receiving yards. It definitely helped that Herbert was throwing to them, but Allen and Williams had good seasons in their own right, finishing 23rd and 22nd respectively among wide receivers on PFF in overall grade, and both have track records of success that pre-date Herbert.

Allen is the more veteran of the two, joining the Chargers as a 3rd round pick in 2013. Allen instantly made a big impact, posting his first 1,000 yard season as a rookie, but he had a lot of injury problems early in his career, playing just 38 of a possible 64 games across his first four seasons in the league combined. He always showed #1 wide receiver upside when healthy though, averaging a 93/1102/7 slash line per 16 games with 1.93 yards per route run across those first four seasons, and he’s made good on that upside over the past five seasons, staying much healthier with just three games missed total and surpassing 1,000 yards in four of five seasons, coming up just 8 yards short in the 5th season.

Allen has never been an explosive athlete and has seen his yards per catch average drop to 10.3 over the past two seasons, compared to 12.2 over his first seven seasons, but he’s remained a very effective possession receiver, surpassing 97 catches in each of the past five seasons, while catching a league leading 509 passes across those five seasons combined. He’s going into his age 30 season and he could already be on the decline a little bit, but the fact that he’s not that dependent on athleticism could mean he’ll age better than most wide receivers and, even if he drops off a little bit more in 2022, he should remain an above average wide receiver and should push for another 1,000+ yard season.

Williams, meanwhile, was added as the Chargers 7th overall pick in 2017. He hardly contributed as a rookie, mostly due to injury, and didn’t become a full-time starter until his third season in the league, but he’s averaged 1.81 yards per route run over the past four seasons and has surpassed 1,000 yards in two of the past three seasons since becoming a full-time starter. That includes a career best 1.97 yards per route run in 2021, which led to the Chargers keeping him on a 3-year, 60 million dollar deal as a free agent this off-season. 

Unlike Allen, Williams does his damage mostly on big plays, catching just 57.8% of the targets thrown to him in his career, including just 58.9% last season, but averaging 16.1 yards per catch with an average depth of target of 14.8 yards. Quarterbacks may complete a low percentage of their passes to him, but they still average 9.64 yards per attempt when targeting him over the past four seasons combined. Still in his prime in his age 28 season, with just three games missed total over the past four seasons, Williams is unlikely to drop off significantly this season, but he might not quite repeat the best season of his career again in 2022.

With Allen and Williams being among the best wide receiver duos in the league, they don’t have much need for a good #3 wide receiver, but if either Allen or Williams missed extended time, incumbent #3 wide receiver Jalen Guyton would be a very underwhelming replacement. Part of it is because he understandably hasn’t gotten a lot of targets even when on the field, but Guyton has averaged just 0.94 yards per route run in three seasons in the league and he has consistently finished well below average on PFF, including a 99th ranked season out of 110 eligible wide receivers in 2021. 

Guyton has a good chance to lose the #3 job to 2021 3rd round pick Josh Palmer, who was underwhelming on 457 snaps as a rookie (1.20 yards per route run), but who could take on a larger role in year two. Palmer would likely be an upgrade on Guyton by default, but he too could be overmatched if forced into starting for an extended period of time, so it will be very important to the Chargers for Allen and Williams to continue staying healthy.

The one significant veteran addition the Chargers made to their offense was tight end Gerald Everett, who comes in on a 2-year, 12 million dollar deal, but he is basically just a replacement for 2021 starting tight end Jared Cook, who finished 4th on the team in receiving behind Williams, Allen, and Ekeler, with a 48/564/4 slash line. A 2017 2nd round pick, Everett has never surpassed 500 yards receiving in five seasons in the league, but he’s also always split playing time with another tight end, never surpassing 63 targets in a season. When given opportunity throughout his career, Everett has been pretty impressive, averaging 1.40 yards per route run, and Jared Cook leaves behind 83 targets, so Everett has a great chance to surpass his career highs in both targets and yardage, on one of the best passing offenses in the league. He’ll probably be an upgrade on the middling Jared Cook, but probably not a significant one.

The Chargers used a 3rd round pick on Tre McKitty in 2021, but he only played 237 snaps, averaged 0.77 yards per route run, and wasn’t trusted to play outside of obvious run blocking situations. He could see a bigger role in year two, but the addition of Everett suggests the Chargers still don’t view McKitty as much more than a blocking tight end. The Chargers do have Donald Parham, a 2019 undrafted free agent who has shown some potential as a receiving tight end in limited action over the past two seasons, averaging 1.31 yards per route run, but he’s not much of a blocker and will likely remain in a situational role. This is a talented receiving corps overall, led by one of the best wide receiver duos in the league.

Grade: A-

Edge Defenders

While there wasn’t much the Chargers needed to add on offense, they had significant needs on defense and they addressed several with veteran additions on big contracts. Their biggest addition came via trade, sending a 2nd round and a 6th round pick to the Bears for edge defender Khalil Mack, who has 63.9 million over 3 years remaining on his contract. Mack is a Hall-of-Fame caliber player who has been one of the best edge defenders in the league over the past decade or so, beginning his career in Oakland where he had four straight seasons in the top-6 among edge defenders on PFF and then returning two first round picks to the Raiders from Chicago when the Raiders traded him to the Bears ahead of the final year in his rookie deal, right before the start of the 2018 season.

In addition to giving up significant draft capital for him, the Bears also gave Mack a then record 6-year, 141 million dollar extension, but he was arguably still worth it for the Bears, continuing his dominant play from Oakland in his first three seasons in Chicago, finishing 3rd, 13th, and 1st among edge defenders in 2018, 2019, and 2020 respectively. However, Mack is now heading into his age 31 season and is coming off of an injury plagued season in which he played just 315 snaps and did not play at his typical level, so it’s understandable why the rebuilding Bears would trade him to get a significant draft asset and to get out of the rest of the contract. 

At the same time, he still has the upside to bounce back and be one of the best edge defenders in the league again in 2022 like he was in 2020, in which case he would be well worth what the Chargers paid to acquire him, between draft compensation and salary, so it’s understandable why the win now Chargers acquired him. Also a dominant run defender, Mack has also totaled 76.5 sacks, 63 hits, and a 13.9% pressure rate in 117 career games. 

It’s concerning that he is on the wrong side of 30 and coming off of a significant injury, but, prior to last season, he had only missed two games to injury in seven seasons in the league, so he has a good chance to stay healthy for most of the 2022 season. Even if Mack isn’t at his peak form, he still has a good chance to be among the best players in the league at his position this season. He should be an obvious upgrade on the middling Uchenna Nwosu, a now ex-Charger who Mack will be replacing at the edge defender position. 

Mack also gives the Chargers a second high-level edge defender, joining 6-year veteran Joey Bosa, who has developed into one of the best players in the league at his position. The 3rd overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft, Bosa has dominated since entering the league, finishing in the top-9 among edge defenders on PFF in all but one season in the league. Also a good run defender, Bosa has totaled 58 sacks, 75 hits, and a 15.1% pressure rate in 79 career games. Durability has been a little bit of a concern for him in his career, as he’s missed at least four games in half of his seasons in the league, but he’s played 16 games in the other three seasons and durability is really the only concern with a proven dominant player who is still very much in his prime in his age 27 season.

Kyler Fackrell, who was their top reserve with 382 snaps played last season, is no longer with the team, but the Chargers did sign Kyle Van Noy, a versatile linebacker who will see some action as an edge defender. Van Noy is heading into his age 32 season, but he was still a solid player on 811 snaps in 2021 and has been a capable run defender, coverage linebacker, and edge rusher (12.9% pressure rate) in his career. He could also see some action as an off ball linebacker. The Chargers also have 2021 4th round pick Chris Rumph as a reserve edge defender option. He only played 176 snaps as a rookie, but he wasn’t bad and could see more action in year two. The Chargers have arguably the best edge defender duo in the league with good depth behind them.

Grade: A

Interior Defenders

Interior defender was the Chargers’ weakest position group last season, as the only player who saw significant snaps for them at the position who earned even an average grade from PFF was veteran Linval Joseph (550 snaps), who was not retained this off-season as a free agent, ahead of what would have been his age 34 season. The Chargers didn’t make a splash addition at this position like they did by adding Mack on the edge, but they did make several additions to this group this off-season. Sebastian Joseph-Day was their best addition, coming over from the Rams on a 3-year, 24 million dollar deal. 

Joseph-Day has never played more than 481 snaps in a season, as the 2018 6th round pick spent 2019 and 2020 as mostly a rotational reserve and then, in his first season as more of an every down player in 2021, he went down for the season with an injury after 340 snaps in 7 games. However, he’s shown a lot of promise when on the field, playing at his best against the run, but also adding a decent 5.9% pressure rate for his career, including 3 sacks, 2 hits, and a 6.7% pressure rate in limited action last season. 

Joseph-Day’s best season came in 2020, when he played 412 snaps and finished the season as PFF’s 13th ranked interior defender in run defense grade. He’s still a projection to a larger role, but, if he can stay healthy, it wouldn’t surprise me if he was an above average player on a similar snap count to the 48.6 per game he averaged last season before getting hurt. He might not be a huge upgrade on the departed Linval Joseph, but he definitely gives the Chargers a younger option at the position and someone they can build around going forward.

The Chargers other veteran additions are not as promising. Austin Johnson comes over from the Giants on a 2-year, 14 million dollar deal, but that was likely an overpay. Johnson was a 2nd round pick in 2016, but was never more than a reserve in his first five seasons in the league, maxing out with 399 snaps played in 2018 with the Titans, prior to being forced into a much larger role with the Giants in 2021, playing 665 snaps. 

Johnson was not bad earlier in his career as a reserve, but proved to be overmatched in a larger role last season, finishing slightly below average on PFF. His salary suggests the Chargers have a big role planned for him, but he’s likely to continue disappointing in that bigger role, like he did last season. He’s not a terrible option, but could easily prove to be a liability, especially as a pass rusher (4.3% career pressure rate).

The Chargers also signed ex-Panther Morgan Fox this off-season, but he’s only a rotational player, struggling on a career high 561 snaps last season, after averaging 363 snaps per season in the previous three seasons. He’s a solid pass rusher (career 8.1% pressure rate) and should have a role in obvious passing situations, but he’s also been a liability against the run throughout his career and generally has been more of a liability as a run defender than an asset as a pass rusher, finishing below average on PFF in three of the past four seasons.

Jerry Tillery has led this position group in snaps played over the past two seasons, playing 747 and 858 respectively, but he’s struggled mightily in that role, finishing 128th out of 139 eligible at his position on PFF in 2020 and 126th out of 146 eligible in 2021. With several players being added to this position group this off-season, I would expect Tillery’s role to be scaled back significantly, which should benefit this defense even if the players taking over his vacated snaps are underwhelming.

Tillery was a first round pick by the Chargers in 2019 and could be much more effective in more of a rotational role, but he also struggled mightily on 354 snaps as a rookie, so he could easily continue struggling even in a scaled back role. Tillery is at his best as a pass rusher, but his career 6.7% pressure rate isn’t nearly enough to make up for how bad he’s been as a run defender, especially considering the Chargers used to regularly line Tillery up as an edge defender, where he had a clearer path to the quarterback. The Chargers will probably primarily use Tillery as a sub package pass rusher, which makes the best use of his skillset, but he’s still unlikely to be a significant asset for this team, even in a best case scenario.

Christian Covington is probably their best returning interior defender, but he also struggled last season, earning a below average grade from PFF across 523 snaps. Covington also struggled on 559 snaps in 2020 with the Bengals, but he’s been better in the past as more of a rotational player and could be useful to the Chargers in a scaled back role this season. Covington is already going into his 8th season in the league, but he’s still only in his age 29 season and has generally held up pretty well as both a run defender and a pass rusher (6.1% pressure rate) in his career, especially when he’s played smaller snap counts. This is a deeper position group than a year ago, but they are primarily only a better group this year by default, compared to last year’s very underwhelming group.

Grade: C

Linebackers

The only key player the Chargers lost this off-season that they didn’t really replace is Kyzir White, who played close to an every down role for the Chargers last season (57.6 snaps per games), while making all 17 starts and finishing as PFF’s 24th ranked off ball linebacker in overall grade for the season. The Chargers signed veteran Troy Reeder in free agency and he was solid on 423 snaps in 2020, finishing 37th among off ball linebackers on PFF, but he struggled mightily in a bigger role in 2021, finishing 72nd out of 94 eligible off ball linebackers on 682 snaps, and he also struggled in the first action of his career in 2019, so he would be a very shaky starting option. It’s more likely he’ll be a reserve, with holdovers Kenneth Murray and Drue Tranquill likely to be the two starters at the position.

Murray and Tranquill technically split snaps opposite Kyzir White last season, playing 363 snaps and 560 snaps respectively, but it’s more complicated than that, as Murray began the season as an every down player through the first three games, but then got hurt and returned to a backup role when Tranquill outplayed him in his absence. Murray was a first round pick in 2020 and was not bad in an every down role as a rookie (959 snaps), but he finished as PFF’s 90th ranked off ball linebacker out of 94 eligible last season, continuing to struggle even after returning to a reserve role. Murray has a clear path to getting back an every down role and he still has the upside to develop into at least a solid starter, but he could also continue his poor play from 2021 into 2022.

Tranquill, on the other hand, was a much more effective linebacker last season, hence why he kept the job over Murray. Tranquill didn’t finish the season with a huge snap count, but he was PFF’s 28th ranked off ball linebacker overall and the 2019 4th round showed a lot of promise on 382 snaps as a rookie as well. He actually played well enough as a rookie to earn a starting role for 2020, but he missed all but 5 snaps with injury that season and initially returned as a backup in 2021, before taking Murray’s job when Murray suffered his own injury. 

Tranquill looks like the Chargers’ best linebacker, even if by default, and should have a clear path to an every down role and a career high in snaps. He’s a projection to a larger role, but could easily remain at least a solid starter in an every down capacity. Tranquill and Murray both have the upside to be solid every down players in 2022, but that’s far from a guarantee and their reserve options are underwhelming, between Reeder and 2021 6th round pick Nick Niemann, who played just 67 nondescript snaps as a rookie. The Chargers may have to move edge defender Kyle Van Noy off ball if one of their starting off ball linebackers suffers a significant injury.

Grade: B-

Secondary

Cornerback was also a position of weakness for the Chargers last season. They had four cornerbacks all see significant action, Chris Harris (747 snaps), Asante Samuel (693 snaps), Michael Davis (851 snaps), and Tevaughn Campbell (678 snaps), but only Harris even earned an average grade from PFF, with the other three finishing 106th, 112th, and 104th respectively out of 134 eligible cornerbacks. Harris was not retained this off-season, but that was not that surprising because he’s an aging slot cornerback who is middling at best at this stage of his career, and he was replaced by fellow veteran slot specialist Bryce Callahan, who could prove to be an upgrade. 

The Chargers also signed JC Jackson in free agency to give them a better outside cornerback and his presence will force Samuel, Davis, and Campbell to compete for the other starting outside cornerback job, with the losers of that competition filling in as depth, assuming they make the final roster. Jackson actually didn’t became a full-time starter until last season, the 2018 undrafted free agent’s 4th season in the league, but he impressed on snap counts of 395, 682, and 851 in his first three seasons in the league, earning above average grades from PFF in all three seasons, while starting 22 games total over that stretch, and then he broke out with a career best year as a 17-game starter in 2021, finishing the season as PFF’s 3rd ranked cornerback.

Jackson is a one-year wonder in terms of playing like that for a whole season and the Chargers gave him a 5-year, 82.5 million dollar contract that makes him the 9th highest paid cornerback in the league, so he could prove to be an overpay, especially if the former undrafted free agent regresses after leaving the Patriots, as many defensive backs have over the past two decades, especially ones that were not highly drafted. However, even if he does regress, he should still remain an above average starter and an obvious upgrade at the cornerback position for the Chargers.

Samuel is the favorite to start opposite Jackson. He struggled last season, but he was only a rookie, the 2021 2nd round pick has the upside to be better going forward, and the Chargers don’t have a better option. Michael Davis has made 49 starts over the past four seasons, including 40 starts in 42 games played over the past three seasons, but he’s never been more than a middling starter and is now coming off the worst season of his career. 

Meanwhile, Tevaughn Campbell is a former undrafted free agent (2019) who had played just 326 mediocre snaps in his career prior to last season, when he opened the season as just the Chargers’ 4th cornerback, but was forced significant action because the Chargers top-3 cornerbacks missed 11 games combined last season. Campbell continued to be mediocre in the first extended action of his career, proving himself to be a depth cornerback at best. He’s highly unlikely to see the same amount of snaps in 2022.

Bryce Callahan is locked in as the slot cornerback, but the 5-9 188 pounder is a slot only option and has been very injury prone in his career, missing 47 games in 7 seasons in the league, while never playing more than 13 games in a season. He’s been one of the best slot cornerbacks in the league when healthy, including 26th, 11th, and 3rd ranked finishes among cornerbacks on PFF in overall grade in 2017, 2018, and 2020 respectively, but he fell to 41st among cornerbacks in coverage grade in 2021, while struggling mightily against the run and finishing slightly below average overall. He could bounce back in 2022, but he’s also now going into his age 31 season, so he could also continue declining. It’s very possible he’ll be an upgrade on the middling Chris Harris, but even if he is, he’s likely to miss at least some time with injury.

Safety Derwin James has also missed a lot of time with injury in his career, but he played 15 games last season, which was a big step forward for him. A first round pick in 2018, James immediately became one of the best safeties in the league, finishing his rookie season as PFF’s 6th ranked safety as a 16-game starter and then playing at a similarly high level in his second season in the league in 2019, but he was limited to just 5 games by injury that season, before missing all of 2020. James was PFF’s 10th ranked safety in 2021, so his injuries didn’t sap his abilities and he could be even better in 2022, another year removed from his last major injury, still only in his age 26 season. He probably has a better chance of missing serious time with injury than most safeties, but, when on the field, he should be one of the league’s best.

Nasir Adderley remains as the other starting safety and he was a solid starter in 15 games last season. He struggled in his first season as a starter in 2020, finishing 87th out of 99 eligible safeties on PFF, after playing just 10 snaps in his rookie season, but he was a 2nd round pick back in 2019, so it’s not surprising he eventually developed into a solid starter. It’s possible he regresses a little bit in 2022 and he’s not the most proven player, but it’s also possible he could take another step forward, only in his age 25 season. 

Alohi Gilman played 355 snaps last season as the third safety and, barring a significant injury to one of the starters, he’ll remain in that role this season. He struggled in his limited action, as he did on 71 snaps as a rookie in 2020, and it’s very likely he would struggle if forced into significant action this season, but it’s possible the 2020 6th round pick could take a step forward in year three and become a better reserve. Led by Derwin James and JC Jackson, this is an above average secondary, though it’s a top heavy one and losing James or Jackson to injury would be a significant loss.

Grade: B+

Special Teams

Special teams was also a big weakness for the Chargers last season, ranking 28th in DVOA. That was nothing new for a Chargers team that has had significant special teams problems in recent years, but there are reasons to believe they can be at least somewhat better in 2022, even if mostly by default. For one, they added DeAndre Carter in free agency and he’s a solid veteran return man, with experience returning both punts and kickoffs. 

The Chargers also added punter JK Scott, who figures to be an upgrade on Ty Long, and Troy Reeder, who gives them a second player who finished in the top-50 among special teams on PFF last season (Nick Niemann). On top of that, they brought back Dustin Hopkins, an experienced veteran who stabilized the kicker position as a mid-season acquisition last year. This may still be an underwhelming unit, but they probably won’t be as big of a liability as a year ago.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

The Chargers missed the post-season last year, but just barely, even though they ranked just 24th in defensive efficiency and 28th in special teams DVOA. The Chargers should be significantly better in both aspects this year, especially on defense, where they added top edge defender Khalil Mack and top cornerback JC Jackson, while their offense, which ranked 3rd in offensive efficiency last season, brought back every key player from a year ago and probably found upgrades at the right guard and tight end position. With Justin Herbert likely to be a legitimate MVP candidate in his third year in the league and a very talented roster around him, the Chargers look like one of the best teams in the league this season and have a good chance of competing for a Super Bowl. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Final Update: The Chargers will have a tough path out of the loaded AFC, like all AFC contenders well, but they have one of the best rosters in the league and have as good of a shot as any of the other AFC contenders to make it to the Super Bowl. They’ll have a tough battle to even win the AFC West over the Chiefs, with the Broncos and Raiders also being tough opponents, but I have them as slight favorites to win the division and they can still make the Super Bowl as a wild card.

Prediction: 13-4, 1st in AFC West

Jacksonville Jaguars 2022 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2022 NFL Season Previews, Jaguars

Quarterback

The Jaguars came within a blown 4th quarter lead of making the Super Bowl in 2017, but that team was not built for long-term success and the Jaguars have not seen anywhere near the same success since. Those 2017 Jaguars went 10-6 against arguably the easiest schedule in the league and went to the AFC Championship game on the strength of the league’s best defense, but it’s much tougher to consistently have an elite defense than an elite offense in the NFL, so, if the Jaguars were to continue contending, they would need their offense to improve going forward to compensate for their likely defensive regression. Instead, the opposite happened, as inconsistent starting quarterback Blake Bortles proved his serviceable 2017 campaign was the result of a weak schedule and regressed to his pre-2017 self. 

The 2018 Jaguars finished 5-11 and, rather than trying to keep the current core together, the Jaguars underwent a full rebuild, leading to a 2020 Jaguars team that had just six of the 26 players who played 400 snaps or more in 2017 still on the roster, as well as the league’s 2nd lowest average annual salary. The idea was to let younger, cheaper players play, roll forward significant cap space to the future, accumulate draft assets, including a pair of first round picks from the Rams for Jalen Ramsey, as well as their own high picks as a result of being among the worst teams in the league, and eventually to supplement the team with free agency after finding a quarterback of the future, using all of that accumulated cap space.

It’s not an uncommon strategy, but it doesn’t always have the best results and in the Jaguars’ case, things have not gone well. The 2020 Jaguars won just one game, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing for the strategy the Jaguars’ undertook, as it gave them the #1 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, which allowed them to select Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence, considered the most obvious #1 pick selection since Andrew Luck in 2012. Lawrence was one of 8 picks in the top-42 that the Jaguars had between the 2019-2021 NFL Drafts and, equipped with among the most cap space in the league, the Jaguars underwent a big off-season spending spree.

However, the result was again the league’s worst record at 3-14 and their efficiency ratings showed them to be every bit as bad as their final record, finishing 27th in offensive efficiency, 23rd in defensive efficiency, and 31st in overall efficiency. Trevor Lawrence was a disappointment, completing 59.6% of his passes for an average of 6.05 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions, while finishing as PFF’s 31st ranked quarterback out of 38 eligible, and the rest of the roster disappointed in many ways as well. 

It was premature to expect a playoff berth out of Jacksonville in 2021, but few expected them to struggle as much as they did. The reasons why they disappointed as much as they did are complex, but an obvious culprit was first year head coach Urban Meyer, a successful college football coach, who proved to be completely in over his head in his first year in the NFL, as he lacked the requisite knowledge of the professional game and was unwilling to alter his abrasive coaching style, to put it lightly. 

Meyer didn’t last past week 14, with interim head coach Darrell Bevell leading the way for the final four games of a lost season. The good news for the Jaguars was they once again had the #1 pick and among the most cap space in the league to continue supplementing what is still one of the league’s youngest rosters, which is now coached by Doug Pederson, a veteran head coach and Super Bowl winner in Philadelphia. 

That’s where the good news stops, however. Pederson, while undoubtedly an upgrade over Meyer by default, was underwhelming in his final years with the Eagles, struggling to rebuild his coaching staff after the Super Bowl victory. The Jaguars’ #1 pick came in one of the weakest drafts at the top in recent memory, leading to their selection of the highly athletic, but relatively unproven Travon Walker, which was not a bad selection given their options, but still not the kind of can’t miss prospect you expect to go #1. And, on top of that, their free agency spending spree was largely filled with massive overpays as they were seemingly overpaying anyone with any talent who was willing to play for them. 

That’s not all that surprising when you consider the Jaguars history, not just their recent history of losing since that AFC Championship loss, but their history of losing dating back over a decade, as that AFC Championship appearance was just their first playoff appearance since 2007 and their 67-158 record since the start of the 2008 season is the worst in the NFL over that stretch. This year’s Jaguars team is not as bad on paper as they have been in recent years, but their talent level does not come close to matching their roster’s average annual salary, which ranks 6th in the NFL as a result of all of the Jaguars’ off-season spending, just two years after having the 2nd lowest in the NFL.

The biggest goal for the Jaguars this season, regardless of their ultimate record, would be to see significant improvement out of Lawrence. It’s certainly a strong possibility, even if the Jaguars haven’t made the most of their resources in building around him. Lawrence still is a highly talented young quarterback and it’s not uncommon for eventual franchise quarterbacks to struggle and then take a big step forward in year two or three. A big leap could still only put him among the middle of the pack in quarterbacks in the NFL, but that would be a great sign for his development long-term and would elevate the floor of this team, after back-to-back league worst seasons.

The Jaguars clearly still believe in Lawrence and did not feel the need to add another quarterback this off-season, bringing back veteran backup CJ Beathard. Beathard had to throw just two passes last season and has struggled in limited action in his career, completing 58.7% of his passes for 7.02 YPA, 18 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions, while going 2-10 in 12 career starts, since being selected by the 49ers in the 3rd round in 2017. If Lawrence were to suffer an injury that caused him to miss time, Beathard would almost definitely struggle and the Jaguars would likely be among the worst teams in the league again, despite their other off-season additions.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

Nowhere is the Jaguars’ recent spending spree and roster makeover more obvious than in the receiving corps, where the Jaguars have given out significant contracts to wide receivers Christian Kirk (4 years, 72 million), Marvin Jones (2 years, 12.5 million), and Zay Jones (3 years, 24 million), as well as tight end Evan Engram (1 year, 9 million) over the past two off-seasons. Marvin Jones, who signed last off-season, was a decent value, but the other three, all signed this off-season, were not good values.

On top of that, these receivers been added at the expense of an already established young starter in DJ Chark, who signed in Detroit for 1-year, 10 million this off-season, and 2020 2nd round pick Laviska Shenault, one of their recent high draft picks, who is now buried on the depth chart despite showing some promise, averaging 1.45 yards per route run as a part-time player in two seasons in the league, despite playing on a terrible passing offense in both seasons.

Christian Kirk is their de facto #1 wide receiver and they’re paying him like one, with a contract that makes him the 15th highest paid wide receiver in the league, but he’s never served in that role for a whole season, nor has he ever cracked the 1000 yards receiving mark. Kirk averaged an impressive 1.80 yards per route run average last season and the 2018 2nd round pick is still only going into his age 26 season, but his 2020 season saw Kirk have a 1.21 yards per route run average and his career average of 1.53 yards per route run isn’t much higher than Shenault’s and definitely does not make Kirk seem like a top level wide receiver.

Marvin Jones was their de facto #1 wide receiver last season, leading the team with a 73/832/4 slash line, but he earned just a middling grade from PFF and arguably should have been more productive given the opportunity he got, averaging just 1.33 yards per route run and 6.93 yards per target on 120 targets. Jones has been a solid wide receiver in the NFL for a long time, averaging a 62/850/7 slash line per 16 games since 2013, topping out with a 61/1101/9 season in 2017, but he’s now going into his age 32 season and could easily be nearing the end of the line. I wouldn’t expect him to be significantly better this season than last season and he could easily fall off in a significant way.

Zay Jones is likely locked in as the #3 receiver given his salary, but he was only a marginal #3 wide receiver with the Raiders last season, averaging 1.35 yards per route run and posting a 47/546/1 slash line, and, prior to last season, he had struggled throughout his career, averaging just 0.87 yards per route run. It’s possible the 2017 2nd round pick has turned a corner and will remain a capable #3 wide receiver, but the Jaguars overpaid either way.

Shenault will play a reserve role, barring injuries ahead of him on the depth chart, and the Jaguars also have veteran holdover Laquon Treadwell, who was decent in limited action as a reserve last season, averaging 1.52 yards per route run. The former 2016 first round pick has been a complete bust in his career, averaging 1.04 yards per route run, but that has jumped to 1.63 yards per route run as a reserve over the past three seasons, so he’s not a bad depth option. 

At tight end, free agent acquisition Evan Engram will be an upgrade by default, as the Jaguars got just 50 catches out of the tight end position in total last season, but that doesn’t mean he was a good value. Engram has averaged a 64/696/4 slash line per 16 games in his career, but he’s only played the full season once in five seasons in the league, missing 16 games in total, while dropping 29 passes in 65 games and struggling as a run blocker. He’s also coming off of a career worst season in his contract year, posting a 46/408/3 slash line with 0.89 yards per route run in 15 games and finishing as PFF’s 42nd ranked tight end out of 44th eligible.

It makes sense Engram would have taken a one-year deal this off-season, to try to rehab his value after a down year and get a bigger contract next off-season, but the Jaguars are paying a lot for a one-year rental and if he happens to bounce back they would have to pay even more to keep him long-term. A two-year deal with only a guaranteed first year that gives the Jaguars an option to bring him back for 2023 if they wanted would have made more sense at this price, rather than a low upside one-year deal.

Engram will be backed up by holdovers Dan Arnold, Chris Manhertz, and Luke Farrell. Manhertz is a blocking specialist who has fared well in that role in his career, but has just 18 career catches in 84 games. Arnold is the opposite, a 6-6 220 receiving specialist who has averaged 1.55 yards per route run in his career in a situational role, but who doesn’t hold up as a blocker. His 28/324/0 slash line led the position for the Jaguars last season and it came in just 8 games, but Engram’s addition leaves him with an uncertain role. Farrell, meanwhile, is a 2021 5th round pick who struggled on 255 snaps as a rookie, but could be better going forward. The Jaguars have invested a lot in this receiving corps and it should be better than last season’s by default, especially from a depth perspective, but it’s still an underwhelming group overall.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

The Jaguars made a couple big investments on the offensive line this off-season, including an investment in a homegrown player, keeping left tackle Cam Robinson on a 3-year, 54 million dollar deal, making him the 8th highest paid offensive tackle in the league. A 2nd round pick in 2017, Robinson has shaken off some early career struggles to develop into a solid starter, but a solid starter is the most he’s ever been, as his 50th ranked finish among offensive tackles on PFF last season was a career best. 

Given that he’s never been more than a solid starter, Robinson is overpaid and it’s surprising to see the Jaguars keep him at that salary rather than promoting 2021 2nd round pick Walker Little or finding a cheaper, comparable replacement in free agency. Right tackle Jawaan Taylor returns as well, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him be pushed for his job by Little, as Taylor has been inconsistent and overall underwhelming in 49 career starts since being selected by the Jaguars in the 2nd round in 2019. He’s unlikely to be extended this off-season, ahead of the final year of his rookie deal in 2022.

The Jaguars’ other big investment on the offensive line was giving a 3-year, 49.5 million dollar deal to right guard Brandon Scherff to come over from Washington, where the 2015 5th overall pick spent the first seven seasons of his career. Scherff excelled throughout much of his time in Washington, finishing in the top-16 among guards on PFF in five of seven seasons and never finishing worse than 27th, but he came with a steep price tag, making him the highest paid guard in the league. He’s also going into his age 31 with a concerning injury history, not playing more than 14 games in a season since 2016 and missing 24 games over the past five seasons combined. He’s not a bad signing, even at a high price, but he is probably on the way down and will likely miss at least some time with injury.

The Jaguars were probably hoping to pair Scherff with highly paid center Brandon Linder, who has been one of the better players at his position throughout the past several seasons, but Linder surprisingly retired ahead of his age 30 season this off-season. Linder slipped to 26th among 41 eligible centers on PFF last season and missed 8 games with injury, likely part of the reason why he retired, but he’ll still be a loss for the Jaguars. 

Jacksonville used a third round pick on Kentucky center Luke Fortner and he’s likely viewed as the long-term starter at the position, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see veteran Tyler Shatley begin the season as the starter, as the career reserve has held his own in 18 starts as an injury replacement over the past two seasons. Going into his age 31 season, having never made more than 10 starts in a season, Shatley is a low upside option and not a long-term solution, but Fortner might not start right away.

Scherff is effectively replacing highly paid left guard Andrew Norwell, who was a middling starter last season and was released ahead of a 13 million dollar non-guaranteed salary this off-season, but Scherff is a natural right guard, so it’s likely that incumbent right guard Ben Bartch will be moving to left guard. Bartch has been underwhelming in 12 career starts since being selected in the 4th round in 2020 and it’s unclear if changing positions will hurt his development, but he has the upside to take a step forward in 2022, even if he does change positions. 

Along with Walker Little and Tyler Shatley, the Jaguars’ top reserve is Will Richardson, who has made five starts in his career (3 at tackle, 2 at guard), but he’s struggled throughout his limited action, so depth is a bit of a concern for this team. It’s not a terrible offensive line, especially with the addition of Scherff, but it’s an underwhelming group overall, as their only consistently above average starter is an injury prone player over 30, while both center and right tackle could prove to be positions of weakness.

Grade: B

Running Backs

Of all the recent high draft picks the Jaguars have had, the most head scratching was their selection of running back Travis Etienne with the 25th overall pick in 2021, the second of the two first round picks they got from the Rams for Jalen Ramsey. Taking running backs in the first round is questionable in general, but the Jaguars didn’t seem to have a need for a running back after 2020 undrafted free agent James Robinson rushed for 1,070 yards on 240 carries (4.46 YPC) and 7 touchdowns as a rookie.

Making that pick even worse is the fact that Etienne suffered a foot injury in the pre-season and missed the entire year, though the Jaguars obviously couldn’t have predicted that. Even with Etienne out, however, the Jaguars did not give Robinson the same workload in 2021 as he got in 2020, with his carry total slipping to 164 carries. He was still effective when given the opportunity, rushing for 4.68 YPC, but Urban Meyer gave backup Carlos Hyde a significant role and Robinson’s season ultimately ended after 14 games with a torn achilles. 

Robinson’s injury was late enough in the season that it leaves his status for the start of the 2022 season in question, which makes it even tougher to project how the workload will be split this season. Etienne is expected to return to full strength for the start of the 2022 season, but it seems like his selection was heavily influenced by Urban Meyer, who is gone, so it’s unclear which running back the new coaching staff prefers. 

Etienne is the better of the two as a receiver (Robinson averages just 1.03 yards per route run in his career) and will likely have a big role in passing situations regardless, but Robinson could still lead this team in rushing, especially if he plays all or most of the season. The Jaguars also used a 5th round pick on more insurance, taking Mississippi’s Snoop Conner. It’s a talented backfield, even if one with uncertainty and key players coming off of injury.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

As I mentioned, the Jaguars used the #1 overall pick on Georgia defensive lineman Travon Walker and, compared to the typical #1 overall pick, Walker is a relatively underwhelming pick, but the Jaguars might not have had a better choice, in a weak draft overall at the top. The consensus for a few weeks leading up to the draft was that the Jaguars would take the more productive Aidan Hutchinson, but they chose to bet on Walker’s athleticism and versatility and it makes a lot of sense. Hutchinson has a relatively limited ceiling, while Walker’s lack of production in college was in large part due to being used in a variety of different roles, including frequently lining up in the interior, where it is tougher to get to the quarterback from. 

Walker still comes with a lot of risk and it’s unclear exactly how the Jaguars plan to use him, as a pure edge defender or a hybrid player, but he should be able to make an impact, even as a rookie. He’s also the third edge defender the Jaguars have used a first round pick on in the past four drafts. One of those selections worked out much better than the other, as Josh Allen, the 7th overall pick in 2019, has developed into one of the best young edge defenders in the league.

Allen has earned an above average grade from PFF in all three seasons in the league, totaling 20.5 sacks, 32 hits, and a 11.3% pressure rate in 40 career games, and he’s coming off the best season of his career, finishing the 2021 season as PFF’s 19th ranked edge defender, playing at a high level against the run and adding 7.5 sacks, 9 hits, and a 11.4% pressure rate as a pass rusher. Only going into his age 25 season, Allen could keep getting better and, even though development is not always linear, I would expect him to have another strong season in 2022. The Jaguars made the obvious choice to pick up his 5th year option for 2023 and will work to sign him on a long-term extension over the next couple off-seasons. In a best case scenario, Allen and Walker can bookend a talented pass rush for years to come.

On the other hand, K’Lavon Chaisson, their other recent first round edge defender, has shown next to nothing in two seasons in the league, totaling just 2 sacks, 10 hits, and a 9.7% pressure rate in 31 career games, while struggling against the run and finishing in the bottom 5% in overall grade among edge defenders on PFF in both seasons. Chaisson already saw his snap count drop from 569 in 2020 to 384 in 2021 and, in a deeper position group in 2022, Chaisson could see that number even further. It’s also possible he gets traded if the Jaguars can find a team willing to take a shot on him for at least some return.

The Jaguars also signed Arden Key in free agency to a 1-year, 4 million dollar deal and he figures to have at least a rotational role as well. A 3rd round pick in 2018, Key struggled across his first 3 seasons in the league with the Raiders, earning below average grades from PFF in all three seasons, but the 49ers were able to get some good pass rush out of him in a rotational role last season, as he totaled 6.5 sacks, 15 hits, and a 13.8% pressure rate in 17 games. He’s still a one-year wonder as a pass rusher, as his pressure rate was 8.6% across his first three seasons combined, and he’s never played the run well, but he’s also only going into his age 26 season, so it’s possible he’s permanently turned a corner and will remain an above average rotational pass rusher.

The addition of Key, as well as Walker, leaves the role of Dawuane Smoot in doubt, after he finished 2nd on the team among edge defenders with 675 snaps played last season. Smoot had a solid season last year, totalling 6 sacks, 11 hits, and a 11.9% pressure rate, but he finished well below average on PFF in both 2019 and 2020 and combined for just a 7.2% pressure rate over those two seasons, so he could easily regress, now going into his 6th season in the league. He should still be ahead of Chaisson in the rotation, but how much he’ll play compared to off-season additions Travon Walker and Arden Key remains to be seen. It’s a much deeper group than a year ago and a pretty talented group overall.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

The Jaguars also made a big addition on the interior of their defensive line this off-season, signing ex-Jet Foley Fatukasi to a 3-year deal worth 30 million, and, like most of the Jaguars’ signings this off-season, this move looks like an overpay. A 6th round pick in 2018, Fatukasi was a dominant run defender in a situational role in 2019 and 2020, playing 390 snaps and 507 snaps respectively in those two seasons and finishing 5th and 2nd respectively among interior defenders in run defense grade on PFF, but he’s never been much of a pass rusher (4.8% career pressure rate) and his run defense fell off in a big way in 2021, as he ranked around middle of the pack. 

Still only going into his age 27 season, Fatukasi could definitely bounce back as a run defender, but even at his best, he’s a situational, rotational player, so paying him 10 million annually seems steep. He was a needed addition at a position of weakness, however, as the Jaguars’ top-5 interior defenders last season in terms of snaps played all finished with below average grades from PFF. Four of those players (Roy Robertson-Harris, Malcom Brown, Davon Hamilton, and Adam Gotsis) return to the Jaguars for 2022 and will compete for roles.

Robertson-Harris and Brown were signed last off-season to deals worth 23.4 million over 3 years and 11 million over 2 years respectively and both have bounce back potential, after uncharacteristically bad years. Robertson-Harris has never been much of a run defender, but he has a career 9.3% pressure rate and, prior to finishing 91st out of 146 eligible interior defenders on PFF in 2021, he had three straight seasons with above average grades on PFF. Going into his age 29 season, he could bounce back and be an effective sub package player, but that’s not a guarantee. Him bouncing back is especially important because he is the only effective pass rusher in this position group.

Brown is the opposite kind of player, a traditionally above average run stopper who has never been effective as a pass rusher, with a career 5.4% pressure rate. Brown struggled against the run as well in 2021 and fell to 134th out of 146 eligible interior defenders overall on PFF, but last season was his first below average season on PFF, earning average or better grades from PFF in each of his first six seasons in the league, after being drafted in the first round in 2015. Still only going into his age 28 season, he has bounce back potential as well, but could continue struggling and, even at his best, he is just an early down run stuffer.

Hamilton isn’t as proven as Robertson-Harris or Brown, but the 2020 3rd round pick does come with some upside, even if his career has started off with finishes of 103rd out of 139 eligible interior defenders and 92nd out of 146 eligible interior defenders on PFF. Even if he does take a step forward in 2022 though, the likely result would be him being a replacement level rotation player, so it’s hard to get excited about him. 

Gotsis, meanwhile, could end up the odd man out in a relatively deep group, as he has not been effective as a pass rusher (4.8% pressure rate for his career) or run stopper for several years and now heads into his age 30 season. This isn’t a bad group overall, but Robertson-Harris is the only player who gets consistent pass rush, so the Jaguars may be looking to line up a larger defensive end like Travon Walker up on the interior regularly in sub packages.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

The Jaguars also invested heavily in an attempt to improve their linebacking corps. The biggest investment they made was giving ex-Falcon’s linebacker Foyesade Oluokun a 3-year, 45 million dollar deal that makes him the 4th highest paid off ball linebacker in the league. Oluokun is essentially replacing another highly paid linebacker, Myles Jack, a long-time Jaguar who was set to make 10.75 million non-guaranteed in 2022, in the third year of a 4-year, 57 million dollar extension. 

Jack finished 84th out of 94 eligible off ball linebackers on PFF last season, so moving on from him ahead of a big non-guaranteed salary isn’t surprising and it wouldn’t be hard for Oluokun to be an upgrade, but Oluokun finished just 69th out of 94 eligible off ball linebackers on PFF last season, so it’s unclear why the Jaguars decided to make him one of the highest paid players in the league at his position. Oluokun has been better in the past, but the 2018 6th round pick has never finished higher than 37th among linebackers on PFF, so it’s hard to see him suddenly becoming a consistently above average starter, even if he is likely to be better in 2022 than he was in his down 2021 season.

Damien Wilson was the Jaguars’ other every down linebacker last season and he struggled as well, finishing 77th out of 94 eligible off ball linebackers on PFF across 866 snaps. Wilson signed in Carolina this off-season and the Jaguars replaced him by trading back up into the end of the first round to select Devin Lloyd, arguably the best off ball linebacker in the draft, with the 27th overall pick. Lloyd should immediately take over a big role. 

The Jaguars then double dipped at the linebacker position by taking Chad Muma in the third round. He’ll compete for the top backup role with Shaq Quarterman, a 2020 4th round pick who is the only holdover of note from last year’s group. Even as the top reserve, Quarterman played just 144 snaps, after not playing at all as a rookie. The selection of Muma would seem to be a bad sign for Quarterman’s long-term chances in Jacksonville. This should be a better group than a year ago, but it may be mostly by default.

Grade: C+

Secondary

One of the recent high draft picks the Jaguars have used was on cornerback CJ Henderson, who was selected 9th overall in the 2020 NFL Draft, but Henderson proved to be a massive bust. He earned a below average grade from PFF across 474 snaps as a rookie and lasted just 108 below average snaps in two games in 2021 before being traded to Carolina for a 3rd round pick and veteran tight end Dan Arnold. Even though they were selling low on a player who was barely over a year removed from being a top-10 pick, the Jaguars seem to have won that trade, as Henderson didn’t show anything more across 282 snaps with the Panthers than he did with the Jaguars.

The Jaguars also used the 33rd overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft on a cornerback and they seem to have hit on that pick, selecting Georgia’s Tyson Campbell. Considered very raw coming out of college, Campbell predictably struggled early in the season, but improved significantly as the year went on, finishing as PFF’s 26th ranked cornerback from week 12 on. He only finished with a middling grade overall from PFF, but his best football is almost definitely still in front of him, still just a few months removed from his 22nd birthday.

Campbell will start alongside recent free agent additions Shaq Griffin, who signed a 3-year, 40 million dollar deal last off-season, and Darious Williams, who signed a 3-year, 30 million dollar deal this off-season. Both are among the best contracts the Jaguars have given out the past two seasons. Griffin was one of the Jaguars’ best players in general last season, finishing 24th among cornerbacks on PFF, and he’s been a consistently solid player throughout his career, earning above average grades from PFF in four of five seasons, with his best year coming in 2019, when he finished 11th at his position. Only in his age 27 season, Griffin should keep up his above average play for at least a few more years and is the Jaguars’ de facto #1 cornerback.

Williams, meanwhile, comes over from the Rams, where he developed into a solid starter opposite former Jaguar Jalen Ramsey. Undrafted in 2018, Williams played sparingly across his first two seasons in the league (225 snaps), but he showed potential in that limited action and put it all together with a 6th ranked season among cornerbacks on PFF in 2020. Williams is a one-year wonder who fell to a middling 57th among cornerbacks in 2021 and he might have a hard time bouncing back now that he doesn’t have as much talent around him, but he could easily remain a solid starter and wasn’t a bad value at 10 million annually.

Rudy Ford (423 snaps) and Tre Herndon (207 snaps) return and will likely be the Jaguars’ top reserves at the position, although both struggled in their limited action last season. Herndon has finished below average on PFF in all four seasons of his career, while Ford was primarily a special teamer who played just 127 snaps in four seasons in the league before being forced into an expanded role last season, so I wouldn’t expect more from either player in 2022. The Jaguars have a talented trio of cornerbacks and this is a more talented group than a year ago with Darious Williams being added, but depth is a concern if any of their top-3 get hurt.

Safety is one of the few positions where the Jaguars stood pat this off-season, as their top-3 safeties from a year ago, Rayshawn Jenkins, Andrew Wingard, and Andre Cisco all return, without any significant additions being made. Jenkins and Wingard were the clear starters last season, but Cisco is a 2021 3rd round pick who flashed on 247 snaps as a rookie, so he could push either of the starters for their job.

Jenkins was signed to a 4-year, 35 million dollar deal last off-season and would seem likely to keep his job on salary alone, but he struggled last season, finishing 79th out of 98 eligible safeties, while Wingard finished 34th. Jenkins was better in 2020, finishing 24th among safeties on PFF, so he has some bounce back potential, but his first season in Jacksonville was definitely a disappointment. Wingard, meanwhile, is a 2019 undrafted free agent who was a full-time starter last season for the first time last season, but who flashed promise in limited action in 2019 and 2020. He’s not that proven, but could easily be a solid starter again in 2022 if he can keep his job. This is a solid secondary overall.

Grade: B

Special Teams

Special teams was also a big problem for the Jaguars in 2021, as they ranked 31st in special teams DVOA, and they look like they will be a below average unit again, without major changes being made. Logan Cooke returns as the punter and Jamal Agnew remains their primary return man. The Jaguars didn’t have any special teams finish in the top-50 on PFF and didn’t add any top-50 special teamers in free agency either. The only big change will be at kicker, where the winner of Ryan Santoso and Andrew Mevis will be the starter, but both would be underwhelming options. 

Santoso went 4 of 5 on field goals in the first action of his career last season, but didn’t hit from longer than 35 and went just 6 of 8 on extra points, while Mevis is an undrafted free agent, albeit one who went 20 of 23 in his final collegiate season in 2021, including 2 of 2 from 50+. Regardless of who wins the kicker battle, special teams figures to be a liability again for the Jaguars in 2022, without any high level core special teamers.

Grade: C+

Conclusion

The Jaguars have spent a lot of resources in the last few off-seasons rebuilding this team, between high draft picks and free agent spending sprees. As a result, the Jaguars should be improved in 2022, especially since they figure to be better coached as well, but they’re starting from such a low base point and many of the resources they spent were used on overpaying veterans or making draft picks that have yet to pan out. They should be a more competitive team this year, especially if quarterback Trevor Lawrence can make a big step forward in year two, but I have a hard time seeing them actually competing for a playoff spot in the loaded AFC. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Final Prediction: The Jaguars should be better than a year ago by default, but still have a very underwhelming roster that is at least a year away from seriously competing for a playoff spot.

Prediction: 5-12, 3rd in AFC South

Houston Texans 2022 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2022 NFL Season Previews, Texans

Quarterback

The Texans won just four games in 2021, but in many ways they exceeded expectations by doing that. Once perennial playoff contenders as recently as 2019, the Texans lost a significant amount of talent over the subsequent few off-seasons, including dominant wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, long-time dominant defender JJ Watt, talented safeties Kareem Jackson and Tyrann Mathieu, and talented defensive linemen DJ Reader and Jadeveon Clowney, among other key players. The Texans were unable to find adequate replacements for most of these players either through free agency or the draft, a problem made harder by the fact that the Texans had just four picks in the first two rounds combined across the 2018-2021 drafts, as a result of an aggressive team building strategy that did not result in an extended playoff run. 

Making matters worse, star quarterback Deshaun Watson, who had already demanded a trade last off-season, had to sit out the entire 2021 season while his off-the-field legal situation played out. The 2020 Texans went just 4-12 and looked even worse on paper going into 2021, even before losing Watson, who was PFF’s 2nd ranked quarterback in 2020, despite the Texans’ lack of team success. Forced to turn to veteran journeyman Tyrod Taylor and raw 3rd round rookie Davis Mills in Watson’s absence, it wasn’t hard to see how this team would be among the worst in the league in 2021.

The Texans weren’t quite as bad as many expected, with projections giving them a good chance to finish the season winless, but they were still among the worst teams in the league and were arguably even worse than their 4-13 record suggested, as their only win in which they won the first down rate battle was their week one home victory over a Jaguars team that finished with an even worse record at 3-14. In their other victory over the Jaguars, Texans lost the first down rate battle by 8.02%, only winning the game because they overperformed on third down (10/18 vs. 3/14), which is not as predictive as early downs. In their upset wins over the Chargers and Titans, the Texans won the turnover battle by 3 and 5 respectively, but lost the first down rate battle by 2.86% and 9.47% respectively. 

Meanwhile, most of the Texans losses were not close, coming by an average of 17.2 points per game, leading to the Texans ranking dead last in overall efficiency, over five points worse than the next closest team, with their defense and offense both ranking dead last in efficiency. They might not have had the worst record in the league last season, but they’re still probably starting from a lower base point than any team in the league.

There is some good news, however. For one, Watson’s legal situation cleared up enough that the Texans were able to trade him to Cleveland for a huge return that included a trio of first round picks (2022-2024), despite lingering allegations and civil lawsuits against Watson. You never want to have to trade a player of Watson’s caliber in his prime, but given the circumstances, the Texans have to be considered winners of that trade. The added draft capital will be very valuable for a team that has lacked high draft picks in recent years and, when you add in their own 3rd overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft as a result of last year’s terrible record, the Texans have plenty of resources with which to rebuild.

The most important thing the Texans will have to do long-term now is to find a franchise quarterback. The Texans wisely sat out this off-season’s quarterback carousel, not giving up valuable draft capital to acquire an expensive veteran to quarterback a team that is otherwise taking a long-term approach to roster building, and not using a high draft pick to acquire a young quarterback who may not be any better than the one they already have in Davis Mills, who was the 8th quarterback chosen in a much deeper draft in 2021, but who could have been one of the first signal callers picked in a much weaker draft in 2022 had he returned to school for one more year.

In many ways Mills is the perfect quarterback for the Texans right now, as he could take a step forward and prove to be a long-term option and, if not, the Texans would almost definitely be picking near the top of a much better quarterback draft in 2023, which would allow them to get their quarterback of the future in a year. Either way, the Texans should have a lot more clarity on the position in a year, regardless of how the 2022 season plays out.

All in all, Mills had a rough rookie season, finishing 36th among 39 eligible quarterbacks on PFF and completing 66.8% of his passes for an average of 6.76 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, but he did show some progress as the season went on, a good sign for a quarterback considered to have first round talent, who only fell because he started just 11 collegiate games. Across Mills’ first eight games, he completed 65.5% of his passes for an average of just 6.30 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions, before completing 68.4% of his passes for an average of 7.36 YPA, 9 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions in his final five games.

For better or worse, the Texans are fully committed to Mills for the time being, only bringing in middling backup Kyle Allen this off-season, rather than adding a higher upside backup who could potentially push Mills for his job if he struggles. Allen has made 17 starts in four seasons in the league, but his career stats of 63.1% completion, 6.90 YPA, 24 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions are very underwhelming and his only extended run as a starting quarterback came in a 2019 season in which he finished as PFF’s 38th ranked quarterback out of 39 eligible. Barring injury, Mills should be the season-long starter, with Allen likely only being an option if Mills struggles mightily. I don’t expect Mills to be the long-term solution for this team, but he at least has the upside to potentially be.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

One of the most questionable decisions the Texans made to put their roster in its current state was sending two first round picks and a second round pick to the Dolphins for left tackle Laremy Tunsil before the start of the 2019 season. The Texans had badly needed left tackle help for years and Tunsil was an above average starter on a rookie deal, but he was not the type of elite player that usually returned multiple high picks in a trade and the Texans also gave him a top of the market extension worth 66 million over 3 years ahead of the final two years of his rookie deal, so he didn’t come cheap from a salary standpoint either.

Tunsil continued his above average play in his first two seasons in Houston, finishing 19th and 28th among offensive tackles on PFF in 2019 and 2020 respectively, after finishing 24th among offensive tackles in his final season in Miami in 2018, but with the Texans bottoming out in 2020, the second of the two first round picks the Texans surrendered happened to be 3rd overall in one of the best quarterback drafts in recent memory. The Dolphins didn’t need a quarterback, but were able to trade the pick to the 49ers for a trio of first round picks, so in some ways, it’s like the Texans surrendered four first round picks for Tunsil.

Making matters even worse, Tunsil spent most of 2021 sidelined with injury, playing just 262 middling snaps across 5 games. Still only in his age 28 season without a significant injury history, playing at least 14 games in each of his first 5 seasons prior to last season, Tunsil has obvious bounce back potential, but he’ll never be the kind of player who justifies the cost the Texans paid for him. With two highly paid years left on his contract, there has been some talk of the Texans potentially moving Tunsil to try to recoup some draft compensation, but he likely wouldn’t return much in a trade because of his salary obligations and, for better or worse, he’s the Texans’ best offensive lineman and they missed him badly when he was out last season.

Tunsil was not the only offensive lineman that the Texans used significant resources to acquire during the 2019 off-season, as they also spent their first and second round picks on a pair of offensive linemen in Tytus Howard and Max Scharping, and, like Tunsil, neither has been worth what the Texans paid for them. Howard struggled across 22 starts at right tackle in his first two seasons in the league and then wasn’t much better when the Texans moved him to left guard in 2021. 

Despite that, the Texans still picked up his 5th year option for 2023, which will guarantee him 13.202 million, a large sum for an offensive lineman yet to consistently put it together. The Texans decision to do that shows they still believe in his upside and it should lock him into a starting role for the next two seasons, but where he plays is still a bit of a mystery. He seems more comfortable at guard, but guard is a less valued position and his salary for 2023 would put him among the top-10 highest paid guards in the league, which he has yet to come close to justifying with his play. Barring a huge breakout year in 2022, he figures to be overpaid in 2023, regardless of what position he plays.

At least Howard is still a starter for this team, which isn’t necessarily true of Max Scharping, as he has struggled across 33 career starts, all at guard, earning below average grades from PFF in all three seasons, and he then saw the Texans add a couple of additional guards this off-season. Even if Howard is moved back to tackle, which is not a guarantee, Scharping will still need to compete with newcomers Kenyon Green and AJ Cann for starting roles. Green seems most likely of the three to start, as the Texans just used the 15th overall pick on him, but he isn’t locked into a starting role and isn’t a guarantee to make an immediate impact even if he lands the role.

Cann, meanwhile, is a veteran coming over from the Jaguars as a free agent. Cann was a long-time starter in Jacksonville, starting 94 games in 7 seasons, but he was pretty inconsistent and never played at a high level for a full season, maxing out as PFF’s 32nd ranked guard in 2016. Cann is also now going into his age 31 season and coming off of a year in which he struggled in four starts before going down for the season with injury, so he shouldn’t be locked into a starting role, but his 2-year, 8.5 million dollar contract suggests the Texans at least expect him to compete to start.

If Howard stays at guard, the Texans will likely stick with 2020 4th round pick Charlie Heck at right tackle, even though he struggled across 13 starts there last season, finishing as PFF’s 79th ranked offensive tackle out of 88 eligible. Heck didn’t show much as a rookie either, but it’s always a possibility he takes a step forward now in his 3rd season in the league, even if that’s far from a guarantee. If Howard moves back to right tackle, Heck would move to a swing tackle role and would be a top reserve along with the loser of the Green/Cann/Scharping battle for the two guard spots. The Texans also have Justin McCray, a versatile veteran who started 8 games for the Texans last season, albeit one who has mostly struggled across 27 career starts at various positions in 5 seasons in the league. 

At center, the Texans will likely stick with Justin Britt, who earned a middling grade from PFF across 11 starts last season. Britt was PFF’s 12th ranked center in 2016, but he hasn’t come close to being that good in any of his other seasons, finishing 23rd or worse at his position in every other season, and he’s had a lot of injury issues in recent years, playing in just 19 games total over the past 3 seasons. Now going into his age 31 season, durability will especially be a concern for Britt and he could start to decline when on the field as well. He could also remain a decent starter, but the Texans could need to turn to backup Jimmy Morrissey, a 2021 7th round pick who struggled on 258 rookie year snaps, if Britt gets hurt or struggles. The Texans did add to this group this off-season and they should be better with Laremy Tunsil likely to be healthier, but this is still an unsettled group that could easily have some problems this season.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

Another one of the more questionable decisions the Texans have made in recent years to leave their roster in the state in which it is currently was their decision to trade DeAndre Hopkins to the Cardinals for a 2nd and 4th round pick, following the 2019 season. Trading Hopkins wasn’t a bad idea inherently and Hopkins has shown some signs of declining since joining the Cardinals and signing a big extension, but it was inexcusable for the Texans not to get back at least a first round pick for Hopkins, with six comparable or inferior wide receivers (Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams, Marquise Brown, AJ Brown, Odell Beckham) all being traded for at least a first round pick in the past four off-seasons, with Adams and Hill returning both a first and second round pick via trade. 

The reason the Texans didn’t get a first round pick for Hopkins is that they valued Cardinals running back David Johnson, who they also acquired in the trade, but he did not come close to being worth the difference in draft compensation between what the Texans got and and what they could have gotten from another team had the Texans not been enamored with Johnson. For comparison, the Packers and Chiefs received 1,150 and 1,100 points of draft capital for Adams and Hill respectively, while the Texans received 500 for Hopkins, a difference in draft capital worth equivalent to in between the 28th-31st pick.

Making the Hopkins trade even weirder is the Texans then turned around and traded a second round pick to the Rams for Brandin Cooks as a replacement #1 wide receiver. The pick they gave up for Cooks was later in the second round than the pick they received for Hopkins (40th vs. 57th) and Cooks was paid significantly less over the past two seasons than Hopkins made with the Cardinals (41 million vs. 21.15 million), but Cooks was not the top level receiver Hopkins had been for the Texans. That being said, Cooks has still been their #1 receiver over the past two seasons and managed to surpass 1000 yards in both seasons, despite underwhelming quarterback play in 2021. 

Cooks did benefit from receiving 134 targets in 2021, 13th most in the league, but his 7.74 yards per target average was still well above the team average and, in total, he’s surpassed 1000 yards six times over the past seven seasons. Still only going into his age 29 season, Cooks should continue playing well in 2021, even if he’s not a truly elite wide receiver, maxing out as PFF’s 20th ranked wide receiver in 2020 and finishing the 2021 season ranked 24th at his position. The Texans opted to keep him long-term this off-season, extending him on a 2-year, 39.764 million dollar deal ahead of what would have been the final year of his contract in 2022.

Part of the reason why Cooks received so many targets last season was that the Texans lacked another consistent receiving option. In fact, their 2nd leading receiver only had a 33/446/1 slash line. That receiver was 2021 3rd round pick Nico Collins, so he at least has some upside and could easily be better in 2022. The Texans also used a second round pick John Metchie in this year’s draft and he has upside as well. He’s coming off of a torn ACL in the college football playoffs, which has him questionable for the start of the season, but he has a good chance to at least carve out a role by the end of the season.

Veteran Chris Conley will likely keep the seat warm for Metchie while he develops and recovers from his injury, but Conley averaged just 0.96 yards per route run last season, so he’s a very underwhelming option. Even if quarterback play could be to blame for his struggles last season, he averaged just 1.06 yards per route run across his 7-year career, with a variety of different quarterbacks, so he’s unlikely to be much of a factor, especially now going into his age 30 season. The Texans also have fellow veteran Phillip Dorsett, but he has just 7 catches with three different teams over the past two seasons and is not even a lock to make this roster.

The Texans also didn’t get much out of the tight end position last season. Pharaoh Brown led the team with 605 snaps played by a tight end, but he was mostly a blocker, so he, Jordan Akins, and Brevin Jordan all saw about equal action as a receiver, with none having much of an impact, totaling slash lines of 23/171/0, 24/214/0, and 20/178/3 respectively. Brown should return in his blocking role, but last season’s underwhelming production was the best receiving year of his career, so he’s unlikely to make a significantly bigger impact in that aspect this year.

Without any significant off-season additions at the position and with Jordan Akins no longer with the team, the Texans are likely expecting more out of Brevin Jordan, who they selected in the 5th round last year. He showed some promise and led all Texans tight ends with 1.19 yards per route run, but he played limited action and is a projection to a larger role. The Texans also used a 5th round pick in this year’s draft on Teagan Quitoriano, another developmental tight end, but he’s highly unlikely to open the season as higher than the third tight end on the depth chart and could be behind veteran blocking specialist Antony Auclair as well. The Texans still don’t have a clear #2 receiving option behind Brandin Cooks, but they do at least have some young players with potential.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

As I mentioned, the Texans vastly overvaluing David Johnson in the DeAndre Hopkins trade was the primary reason that trade was a mistake, rather than the decision to trade Hopkins itself. Not only did the Texans value Johnson equivalent to significant draft compensation, but they also took on his terrible contract, which should have made Johnson worth negative draft compensation, and paid Johnson 15.85 million over the past two seasons. In return, Johnson gave them just 1,458 yards from scrimmage and 9 touchdowns in 25 games across those two seasons, before not being brought back as a free agent this off-season.

Johnson was one of five running backs to make starts for the Texans in 2021, with none having much of any success, on a team that finished the season ranked dead last in the NFL with a 3.39 YPC average. The Texans didn’t make any big investments at the position this off-season, but running back is a position where you can often find effective players for cheap. Of the five backs who started for them last season, two of them (Royce Freeman and Rex Burkhead) remain and the Texans have also added veteran free agent Marlon Mack and 4th round rookie Dameon Pierce, who both come with upside.

Mack is a former starter and was a 1,000 yard rusher with the Colts in 2019, but he tore his achilles in 2020 and lost his job to young phenom Jonathan Taylor, limiting Mack to just 32 carries total since that 1000+ yard season in 2019. Mack is still only going into his age 26 season and is now another year removed from his injury, so he has plenty of bounce back potential. His 0.83 yards per route run average shows his struggles in the passing game, but he has averaged 4.38 yards per carry on the ground in his career and has experience as a lead back, a role he could easily reprise in Houston, without much competition. Pierce would be my second pick to lead this team in rushing, even though he’s a 4th round rookie, as mid-round rookies often have an impact at the running back position.

Freeman and Burkhead, meanwhile, are low upside veterans without much of a track record. Freeman has averaged 3.84 yards per carry on 353 carries in 61 games in four seasons in the league, while averaging just 0.82 yards per route run, and Burkhead has averaged 3.96 yards per carry on 462 carries in 98 games in nine seasons in the league, with just a 3.50 YPC average last season on a career high 122 carries. Burkhead at least is useful on passing downs (1.65 yards per route run for his career), but, now in his age 32 season, he’s an underwhelming option even in the passing game. Mack and Pierce have upside, but this is still one of the most wide open and unimpressive running back groups in the league.

Grade: C+

Edge Defenders

Arguably the biggest bright spot for the Texans last season was the emergence of young edge defender Jonathan Greenard, a 3rd round pick in 2020. Greenard only played 414 snaps total, missing five games and playing sparingly early in the season, but he played so well when on the field that the Texans had to give him more action later in the year. He led the team with 8 sacks, which is impressive considering his playing time and lack of opportunities to rush the passer on a team that was frequently trailing, and he added another 7 hits and a 12.6% pressure rate. 

Greenard finished as PFF’s 7th ranked edge defender in pass rush grade and, though he was not as effective against the run, he still finished as PFF’s 11th best edge defender overall. Greenard is still pretty unproven, having only played 265 snaps as a rookie in 2020 prior to last year’s relatively low snap count, but he has plenty of upside and undoubtedly should get a bigger snap count in 2022. It would not be a surprise at all if he broke out as a Pro-Bowl caliber player for years to come.

Greenard should have plenty of opportunity to earn a bigger role, as just one other of the Texans top-5 edge defenders in terms of snaps played last season remains on the roster (Jordan Jenkins, 282 snaps), but the Texans did bring in some reinforcements, signing veterans Jerry Hughes (2 years, 10 million), Rasheem Green (1 year, 3.25 million), Mario Addison (2-year, 7.7 million), and Ogbo Okoronkwo (1-year, 3.25 million). All in all, those players are likely to be an upgrade on the players they are replacing, all of whom were middling at best.

Hughes is the most proven of the bunch, consistently earning above average pass rush grades across nine seasons with the Bills, totalling 52.5 sacks, 69 hits, and a 12.9% pressure rate in 144 games. Hughes has never been as good as a run stopper and his sack count dropped to just two last season, but he still managed a 13.1% pressure rate as a part-time player, while earning PFF’s 15th ranked pass rush grade by an edge defender. Heading into his age 34 season, there’s always a possibility Hughes drops off completely this season, but he could easily continue being effective as a situational pass rusher. He’s also been incredibly durable, missing just one game in the past decade, which is likely a good sign for his chances of continuing to be effective into his mid-30s.

Addison also is an aging veteran who comes over from the Bills, but he hasn’t been as effective as Hughes in recent years, earning middling grades over the past four seasons, and now he heads into his age 35 season, so he may not have much left in the tank. He did have seven sacks last season, but added just one other quarterback hit and his 11.0% pressure rate was noticeably more middling than Hughes’ pressure rate, on the same defense. He’ll probably still have a role, at least in the beginning of the season, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him be a game day inactive down the stretch if the Texans are in the middle of another lost season and want to give younger players more opportunity.

Green and Okoronkwo are younger players and both should have at least a rotational role. Green is a hybrid player who can line up both outside and inside in passing situations, which he will likely continue doing with the Texans, but he’s mostly struggled throughout his 4-year career, earning below average grades from PFF in all four seasons. He had 6.5 sacks last season, but did so largely on volume, as he ranked 17th among all NFL defensive linemen with 847 snaps played, but had just a 6.6% pressure rate and finished in the just the 18th percentile of defensive linemen on PFF in overall grade. He’s still only going into his age 25 season and could be more effective in a smaller role in Houston, but that’s not a guarantee.

Okoronkwo, meanwhile, could prove to be a steal. A 5th round pick by the Rams in 2018, Okoronkwo has barely played, totalling 528 snaps in four seasons in the league, but that was mostly because he was buried on the depth chart on a talented defense and he made the most of his limited action, playing at a high level against the run and pressuring quarterbacks at a 12.5% rate. Okoronkwo played a career high 255 snaps last season, totaling 2 sacks, 3 hits, and a 12.7% pressure rate, and finished in the 86th percentile among edge defenders on PFF. He’s a projection to a larger role and he won’t have as much talent around him in Houston as he did with the Rams, but could easily be an above average player on 400-500 snaps.

With Greenard seemingly about to break out and four other players being added to the position this off-season, veteran Jordan Jenkins could find himself the odd man out, especially since none of his scheduled 3 million dollar salary is guaranteed. A third round pick in 2016 by the Jets, Jenkins has mostly been a solid rotational player throughout his career, but he’s missed 10 games over the past two seasons and is coming off the worst season of his career, finishing in the 9th percentile among edge defenders on PFF. He’s still only going into his age 28 season, so he has some bounce back potential, but he wouldn’t be more than a solid rotational player even if he did bounce back. With Greenard and Okoronkwo having breakout potential and Jerry Hughes potentially still having some pass rush juice, this is actually a solid position group overall, but they figure to rotate players heavily and not all of their options will be effective.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

The Texans aren’t as deep on the interior of their defensive line, so Rasheem Green could line up inside more often than on the edge. Aside from adding 5th round pick Thomas Booker, the Texans didn’t address this position this off-season, so they’ll be counting on getting more out of holdovers Maliek Collins (628 snaps), Ross Blacklock (457 snaps), and Roy Lopez (502 snaps). Collins is the only one of the trio to even earn a middling grade from PFF, but he’s been inconsistent throughout his 6-year career, finishing well below average on PFF in three of those seasons, including just a 4th percentile finish in 2020. 

Collins has especially struggled against the run in his career, though he’s been somewhat impressive as a pass rusher, totaling 17 sacks, 34 hits, and a 7.5% pressure rate in 88 career games. That pressure rate jumped to 8.5% in 2021 and the Texans opted to retain him on a 2-year, 17 million dollar extension this off-season, so clearly they believe he can keep that up, but he could just as easily regress (his pressure rate was 4.4% in 2020) and he figures to not be much of a factor against the run regardless.

Lopez and Blacklock, meanwhile, are both recent draft picks who haven’t shown much in their brief careers, but still potentially have upside. Blacklock, the 40th overall pick in 2020, would seem to have the most upside, but he was horrendous as a rookie, finishing dead last among 139 eligible interior defenders on PFF and, while his pass rush ability improved to middling in 2021, his run defense continued to be a significant problem. He could take another step forward in his third year in 2022, but he has a long way to go to even be a middling rotational player. That’s even more embarrassing for the Texans when you consider that he was selected with the second round pick acquired in the DeAndre Hopkins trade. 

Lopez, meanwhile, was a 6th round pick in 2021 and struggled both as a run stopper and a pass rusher as a rookie. A late round pick, it’s very possible Lopez never develops into a useful contributor, but he’ll get another shot in a thin position group in 2022. It’s very possible the Texans add at least one more veteran free agent to this group this off-season, but for now, this looks like a very thin and underwhelming position group, especially if Maliek Collins regresses after a solid season in 2021 and if neither of their young players takes a step forward.

Grade: C

Linebackers

The Texans’ off ball linebackers were very underwhelming last season as well. The only player at the position who earned even a middling grade from PFF was Zach Cunningham, who played just 493 snaps before being cut mid-season for disciplinary reasons. Kamu Grugier-Hill (778 snaps), Christian Kirksey (790 snaps), and Neville Hewitt (325 snaps) all saw action for the Texans last season and all three return this season, but none played well enough to be locked into a starting role in 2022 and the Texans added a pair of players to the mix this off-season, signing Jalen Reeves-Maybin to a deal worth 7.5 million over 2 years and using a 3rd round pick on Alabama’s Christian Harris.

Reeves-Maybin was only middling last season in the first significant action of his career (615 snaps), after playing 685 underwhelming defensive snaps across his first four seasons in the league prior to last season, as mostly a special teams player, so he’s an underwhelming option as well. Kirksey is the only one of the bunch with any real track record of success, but his last above average season on PFF was in 2017, before an injury plagued stretch that has limited him to just 33 of 65 possible games in four seasons since. 

Kirksey did play 13 games last season, but he now heads into his age 30 season, so he’s not a reliable option going forward. Hewitt and Grugier-Hill, meanwhile, have never earned an above average grade from PFF for a season in which they were a starter. Harris is the only one of the bunch with any real upside, but it’s unclear how much action he’ll see as a rookie. Even with some off-season additions, this is still a very underwhelming linebacking corps.

Grade: C

Secondary

One bright spot of the Texans’ season last year was the emergence of slot cornerback Tavierre Thomas, a former 2018 undrafted free agent who was primarily a special teamer in his first three seasons in the league with the Browns, playing 237 defensive snaps total, but who proved to be a diamond in the rough in his first season in Houston. He only played six snaps in the first three games of the season, but he was made the primary slot cornerback in week 4 and finished the season as PFF’s 12th ranked cornerback, while allowing the 2nd fewest yards per route run of any slot cornerback in the league (0.50). He’s a complete one-year wonder and could easily regress in 2022, but he’s the heavy favorite to keep the slot cornerback job.

The downside of Thomas’ emergence on the slot was that the Texans had to move natural slot cornerback Desmond King to the outside, where he struggled mightily, finishing as PFF’s 116th ranked cornerback out of 134 eligible. King earned an above average grade from PFF in each of his first four seasons prior to last season, so he has obvious bounce back potential on the slot, but he doesn’t have a clear path to playing time anywhere, with the Texans adding a pair of outside cornerbacks this off-season. It’s possible the Texans give King a look at safety this season.

Those two outside cornerbacks are Derek Stingley and Steven Nelson and both have a good chance to make a positive impact. Stingley was the 3rd overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft and, while he was a polarizing prospect, struggling through injuries in 2020 and 2021 after being arguably the top cornerback in college football as a freshman in 2019, he comes with a sky high upside and could develop into one of the top cornerbacks in the league if all goes well. He comes with a lot of downside as well, but it’s not hard to see him making an impact as a rookie.

Nelson, meanwhile, is a proven veteran who is still only going into his age 29 season and should continue being an above average starter, after earning an average or better grade from PFF in each of the past six seasons (84 starts), including a career best 7th ranked finish in 2019. At the very least, he’ll be a capable starter for a team that got poor play from all of their outside cornerbacks last season and he could easily prove to be a steal on a 2-year, 9 million dollar contract. The Falcons also took a flyer on ex-Falcons cornerback Kendall Sheffield this off-season, but the 2019 4th round pick struggled mightily in his first two seasons with the Falcons, before being limited to just 53 snaps last season, so he’s unlikely to make much of an impact. If he even makes the team, he would be a reserve along with Desmond King.

Part of why King might have a better chance of playing at safety is because the Texans have an unsettled position group there, but the Texans did use a second round pick on safety Jalen Pitre and he figures to have the inside track to at least one of the starting roles, even if he’s far from a guarantee to be effective as a rookie. At the other spot, veteran Eric Murray may be the favorite, but he struggled in 11 starts last season, finishing 90th out of 98 eligible safeties on PFF and he’s never been more than a middling player in any of his six seasons in the league.

Justin Reid (780 snaps) and Lonnie Johnson (542 snaps) didn’t return from last year’s safety group, but both earned below average grades from PFF, so neither will be a big loss. Without those two, Murray will likely see competition from free agent addition MJ Stewart, a former bust of a 2nd round pick cornerback by the Buccaneers who flashed in limited action as a safety for the Browns in 2021. He’s never played more than 342 snaps in a season in four years in the league, but he’s only going into his age 27 season and has always had talent, so it’s possible he ends up as a late bloomer, even if he’s obviously a projection to a larger role.

The Texans also bring back reserves Terrence Brooks (180 snaps) and Jonathan Owens (168 snaps). Brooks is a career special teamer who has never surpassed 280 defensive snaps in a season, but Owens is a 2018 undrafted free agent who at least showed some promise last season, albeit in a very limited role. Having played just 10 defensive snaps in his career prior to last season, he’s extremely inexperienced, but he may be worth a longer look if the Texans’ other safety options struggle this season. The additions of Nelson, Stingley, and Pitre should make this group better by default, but, at the same time, their top player a year ago, Tavierre Thomas, could easily regress after his out-of-nowhere breakout season in 2021.

Grade: B-

Special Teams

By far the biggest strength of this Texans team last season was their special teams unit, ranking 9th in special teams DVOA, and this unit should remain their biggest strength in 2022, with their key players from a year ago all returning. Ka’imi Fairbairn and Cameron Johnston return as kicker and punter and Tremon Smith and Desmond King return as kick returner and above average, after posting solid averages of 25.6 yards per return and 9.1 yards per return respectively last season. Smith is also an elite core special teams player, ranking in the top-50 special teamers on PFF last season, along with Neville Hewitt and MJ Stewart, who also return in 2022. This should remain an above average unit.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Texans should be better than a year ago, but they’re starting from a lower base point than most realize. Their -172 point differential last season was 3rd worst in the league and would have been even worse if they didn’t still manage to have a +3 turnover margin, which made them the only team in the league with a positive turnover margin and a point differential worse than -60. Turnover margins are not predictive on a week-to-week or year-to-year basis and, in terms of efficiency ratings, which are much more predictive, the Texans ranked dead last in 2021, more than five points worse than the next worst team last season.

On top of that, even though they’re improved, they’re mostly improved by default, as this remains one of, if not the weakest roster in the NFL, with below average units at most position groups. They figure to be among the worst teams in the league again this season and have a good shot at the #1 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, which isn’t necessarily a bad result because this is a team still rebuilding that needs to find a franchise quarterback. Even in a best case scenario, it’s very hard to see this team competing for a playoff spot in 2022, especially not in the loaded AFC. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Final Prediction: The Texans aren’t significantly improved from a year ago, when they needed some fluky things to go their way to win more than a couple games, in a season in which they finished dead last in overall efficiency by a significant amount. They could easily be the worst team in the league this season.

Prediction: 2-15, 4th in AFC South

Las Vegas Raiders 2022 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2022 NFL Season Previews, Raiders

Quarterback

The Raiders qualified for the post-season in 2021, which was surprising in a couple ways. For one, most didn’t expect much out of the Raiders going into last season, with their pre-season odds to make the post-season being around +350. Those odds were even lower at the end of week 14, when the Raiders sat at just 6-7, coming off of a humiliating 48-9 loss in Kansas City the following week, having already fired head coach Jon Gruden earlier in the season, but the Raiders managed to win out to finish 10-7 and with a wild card berth.

In some ways, the Raiders were lucky to win those four games, walking a tightrope by winning all four games by four points or fewer, with their -65 point differential being worst among playoff qualifiers, but in other ways, the Raiders were unlucky last season, as they had several unpredictive metrics go against them. Their -9 turnover margin was 6th worst in the NFL and worst among playoff qualifiers, but turnover margins tend to be highly unpredictive on a week-to-week and year-to-year basis. Underperforming on third down is also not predictive and the Raiders ranked 22nd in third down conversion rate and 15th in third down conversion rate allowed, despite ranking 17th in offensive efficiency and 8th in defensive efficiency, which is much more predictive.

The Raiders lost in the first round of the playoffs in a close game against the Bengals, a game in which they again were the more efficient team on a per play basis, but lost the turnover battle by two in a one-score loss. Going into the off-season, the Raiders were at a bit of a crossroads, not only needing to find a new head coach, but with their long-time quarterback Derek Carr going into the final year of his contract. Carr was due a reasonable 19.9 million in 2022, but would likely command a significant raise on a long-term extension.

The Raiders could have opted to join this off-season’s quarterback carousel and traded Carr, which would have given them a significant return. Instead, they doubled down on Carr, extending him on a 3-year, 121.5 million dollar deal, which will make him the 5th highest paid quarterback in the league in average annual salary. That could easily prove to be a mistake, as the track record of paying non-elite quarterbacks top level money is not good. 

In fact, Since the start of the salary cap era in 1994, just 5 of 28 Super Bowls have been won by a quarterback with a cap hit that was more than 11% of the salary cap and all of those quarterbacks are Hall of Fame caliber players. It’s close to impossible to win with a highly paid starting quarterback unless he is an elite player under center, as it becomes very tough to surround a non-elite quarterback with enough talent to win with if that quarterback is taking a significant percentage of the cap. 

Carr’s cap hit is set to significantly exceed that 11% threshold in every season 2023-2025, but he hasn’t shown himself to be a consistently top level quarterback. In eight seasons in the league, he’s finished above average on PFF five times, but he’s finished in the top-5 just once, in a career best year back in 2016. He’s coming off three straight above average finishes on PFF, completing 68.7% of his passes for an average of 7.83 YPA, 71 touchdowns, and 31 interceptions, and he should continue that above average play into 2022, but he’ll likely never produce at a high enough level to justify his new raise.

Carr has been very durable in his career, playing every game in six of eight seasons in the league and only suffering one serious injury that cost him extended time, when he broke his leg in 2016 at the end of that career best season. The Raiders will need Carr to remain healthy in 2022, without a good backup option behind him. Over the past two seasons, the Raiders’ backup quarterback has been Marcus Mariota, who was overqualified in the role, but he signed with the Falcons as a starter this off-season and the Raiders don’t have anywhere near as good of an alternative.

To compete for the backup job, the Raiders have added Nick Mullens and Jarrett Stidham this off-season. Mullens has started 17 career games, but has been underwhelming and was the Browns’ 3rd string quarterback for most of last season. Mullens has at least played though, which is more than you can say about Stidham, a 2019 4th round pick who could never get on the field in New England, backing up three different starters in three seasons and attempting just 48 regular season pass attempts, before following former Patriots offensive coordinator and new Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels to Las Vegas in a swap of late round picks. Mullens’ experience probably makes him the favorite for the job, but Stidham does have a greater knowledge of the system. Regardless of who wins the job, the Raiders would be in trouble if Carr missed significant time.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

The Raiders got Derek Carr some help in a big way this off-season, making an aggressive move to add one of the best wide receivers in the league in Davante Adams, in exchange for a first and second round pick, and then giving the previously franchise tagged Adams a massive 5-year, 140 million dollar contract that makes him the highest paid wide receiver in the NFL. Between the excess value loss from the draft picks and Adams’ actual salary, the Raiders are paying upwards of 35 million annually for Adams and that number would be even higher if Adams didn’t make it to the end of the contract.

In some ways, this move is the Raiders going all in on 2022, before Carr’s cap number jumps in 2023 and beyond. Carr and Adams will be making more than 70 million combined annually on their new contracts and it’s going to be very tough to build a competitive supporting cast around that duo going forward, especially without a steady stream of cheap young talent coming in through the draft. Adams also isn’t that young anymore, now going into his age 30 season. 

That doesn’t necessarily mean he’s about to decline significantly, but a wide receiver in his age 30 season is 21% less likely to surpass 1,000 yards than a wide receiver in his age 29 season. After age 30, the drop off gets even more pronounced, with a wide receiver in his age 33 season being 67% less likely to surpass 1,000 yards than a wide receiver in his age 30 season and 80% less likely than a wide receiver in his age 26 season. Adams also will probably see a statistical hit just going from Aaron Rodgers to Derek Carr, though Carr is not a bad quarterback and will have some pre-existing chemistry with Adams, from their time together at Fresno State.

All that being said, Adams should remain one of the best wide receivers in the league, at least for 2022, even if he does decline a little bit, because he’s starting from such a high base point. Adams has finished in the top-13 among wide receivers on PFF in five straight seasons, including four straight top-10 finishes and back-to-back #1 finishes in 2020 and 2021. In total, he’s averaged 2.53 yards per route run over the past four seasons, with averages of 2.96 yards per route run (1st in the NFL) and 2.82 yards per route run (3rd in the NFL) in 2020 and 2021 respectively. He probably won’t reach either of those numbers with his new team, but I would still expect him to be among the league’s best as long he doesn’t suffer an unexpected injury.

In addition to his age and a quarterback downgrade from Rodgers to Carr, another reason why Adams could see his statistical production drop with the Raiders is that he probably won’t get quite the same target share. In Green Bay, Adams was usually the Packers only above average receiver on the field and, as a result, he leads the league with 614 targets over the past four seasons, with just five other wide receivers surpassing even 500 targets over that span. Adams produced a lot, but he had the benefit of being the most targeted wide receiver in the league and catching those passes from one of the best quarterbacks in the league, two benefits he probably won’t have in Las Vegas.

With the Raiders, Adams will cede more targets to slot receiver Hunter Renfrow and tight end Darren Waller, both of whom have been focal points of this passing game in the past and who will now take on more secondary roles. One of the best stories in the NFL, Waller was a 6th round pick by the Ravens in 2015, drafted on the potential of his 4.46 speed at 6-6 238, after hardly producing as a collegiate wide receiver in the run heavy Georgia Tech offense, totaling just 51 catches in his college career. The Ravens moved Waller to tight end, but, despite his physical tools and upside, Waller barely got on the field for the Ravens, with his career nearly getting derailed because of drug problems. 

Waller caught just 12 passes in 18 games in three seasons with the Ravens and, after being suspended for all of 2017, Waller got clean, got his life together, and got another chance from the Raiders. Now bulked up to 6-6 256 to play tight end, Waller didn’t see much action as a mid-season addition in 2018, but in 2019 he surprised everyone and broke out as one of the top tight ends in the league, finishing with a 90/1146/3 slash line, ranking 5th among tight ends with 2.42 yards per route run, and overall being PFF’s 5th ranked tight end. The following season in 2020, Waller proved he wasn’t a fluke, totaling 107/1196/9, ranking 4th among tight ends with 2.28 yards per route run, and finishing as PFF’s 3rd ranked tight end overall. 

However, in 2021, Waller was limited to 11 games by injury, which is when Hunter Renfrow took over as the focal point of the offense, finishing with a 1,000 yard season of his own, with a 103/1038/9 slash line and a 1.94 yards per route run average. Renfrow was especially productive with Waller out of the lineup. Including the week 12 game where Waller left after 21 snaps, Renfrow caught 50 passes for 559 yards and 3 touchdowns in seven games without Waller last season (121/1358/7 extrapolated over 17 games), averaging 2.37 yards per route run.

Renfrow’s role will be scaled back with Waller returning and Adams being added, but Renfrow has averaged 1.92 yards per route run in three seasons in the league, so he’s been an efficient weapon his whole career, regardless of his role. Waller will also see his role scaled back as well and his production was declining last season even before his significant late season injury, as his 1.86 yards per route run average through week 12 was still good, but it was also a significant drop off from 2019 and 2020. That’s especially concerning because Waller is now heading into his age 30 season and could decline further, but he should remain at least an above average tight end, albeit with less of a target share in the passing game.

Renfrow and Waller should still remain heavily involved in this offense behind Adams though, in large part because they are still significantly better options than the rest of this receiving corps, which drops off significantly after their top-3 targets. Zay Jones (638 snaps) and Bryan Edwards (811 snaps) had significant roles on this offense last season, but are now elsewhere and, even though they weren’t great players (1.38 and 1.12 yards per route run respectively), the Raiders don’t have good replacement options.

Veterans DeMarcus Robinson and Keelan Cole were added in free agency on near minimum contracts and they’ll compete for the #3 wide receiver job, playing outside opposite Adams when Renfrow moves to the slot. Cole has been the more productive of the two in his career, but he’s never been anything more than a middling #3 receiver, with a 1.27 yards per route run average for his 5-year career, but that’s substantially better than the 0.82 yards per route run that DeMarcus Robinson has averaged in his 6-year career. Making Robinson’s average even worse is the fact that he’s gotten to play with Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City for most of his career. Cole should be the favorite to start as the #3 receiver over Robinson, but Cole isn’t a great option either.

The Raiders may run more two-tight end sets to compensate for their lack of depth at wide receiver and backup tight end Foster Moreau isn’t bad, but he’s not likely to command a significant target share either, barring another injury to Waller. Moreau was a 4th round pick in 2019 and his 1.26 career yards per route run average isn’t bad for a tight end, but that dropped to 1.15 in 2021 when forced into a larger role. The 23/251/1 slash line he had in the 7 games Waller missed all or most of extrapolates to 56/610/2 over 17 games, which aren’t bad numbers for a starting tight end, but he was still a significant downgrade from Waller. Moreau is an above average #2 tight end, but would likely be overmatched if forced into a significant role again. Adams, Waller, and Renfrow lead a talented, but top heavy receiving corps.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

While the addition of Davante Adams will obviously help this offense, the Raiders’ biggest weaknesses on offense around Derek Carr last season were their offensive line and, by extension, their running game, with the Raiders ranking 29th in team run blocking grade on PFF and, largely as a result, averaging just 3.91 YPC on the ground, 27th in the NFL. The Raiders also were a below average pass blocking team, ranking 22nd on PFF in team pass blocking grade, something that could hold their passing game back in 2022 if they don’t improve.

The Raiders didn’t do much in the way of finding upgrades this off-season, with limited cap space and no picks in the first two rounds of the draft, as a result of the Adams trade, so it’s likely they’ll continue to struggle upfront. They used a third round pick on Memphis’ Donald Parham and, while he could push to start as a rookie at either guard or center, that says more about the Raiders’ other options than it does about him. 

The only veteran addition they made was Jermaine Eluemanor, a journeyman who has never been much more than a backup in five seasons in the league (14 starts), since entering the league as a 5th round pick in 2017. Eluemanor can play either guard or right tackle and his best play came when he started a career high 8 games for new Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels’ New England Patriots in 2020, but he’s generally been a mediocre player in his limited action and would likely struggle as a season long starter, regardless of what position he plays.

The Raiders also have a pair of young players they are hoping to get more out of this season in Alex Leatherwood and John Simpson. Leatherwood was a first round pick by the Raiders in 2021 and, while he was widely regarded as a reach who was expected to be a second round pick, few expected him to be quite as bad as he was as a rookie, struggling mightily at both right tackle and right guard, with the Raiders changing his position after week 5 in an unsuccessful attempt to get more out of him. 

Leatherwood did start every game as a rookie and he could be better in year two, even if only by default, but his selection looked bad from the start and he’s increasingly looking like he’s going to be a bust. Simpson, meanwhile, was a 4th round selection and finished as PFF’s 74th ranked guard out of 90 eligible in his first full season as a starter (17 starts), after struggling in limited action as a rookie in 2020. Simpson also could take a step forward this season, but 4th round picks don’t pan out as starters that often, so it definitely wouldn’t be a surprise if he didn’t turn into a capable starter long-term. 

Right tackle Brandon Parker was also drafted relatively recently, taken in the 3rd round in 2018, but he’s struggled across 32 career starts and the 1-year, 3.5 million dollar deal he signed to stay with the Raiders this off-season doesn’t lock him into a starting role. Parker made 13 starts at right tackle last season after Leatherwood moved inside and actually had the best season of his career, but still finished 81st out of 88 eligible offensive tackles on PFF, which shows you how bad he’s been through most of his career. He would almost definitely continue struggling mightily if he had to start at right tackle again in 2022, running out of time to make good on his upside, now in his age 27 season.

The Raiders also get veteran Denzelle Good back from a torn ACL that cost him all but 17 snaps last season and he was expected to be their starting right guard for the whole season before that happened, but he’s also struggled throughout his career and coming off of a significant injury doesn’t help matters, especially now going into his age 31 season. Good has 43 career starts, but has never been more than a middling starter and as a 14-game starter for the Raiders in 2020 he finished just 64th out of 92 eligible guards on PFF. He would also be an underwhelming starting option.

Center Andre James is likely locked into a starting role, after being the Raiders’ 2nd best offensive lineman last season, but he still only finished 22nd out of 41 eligible centers in his first season as a starter, after the 2019 undrafted free agent struggled mightily in 117 snaps as a backup in his first two seasons in the league. James could potentially face competition from Donald Parham, but, most likely, Parham will compete for the starting guard jobs with John Simpson and Denzelle Good, with Jermaine Eluemanor and Alex Leatherwood also being options at guard, in addition to right tackle, where they would compete with Brandon Parker. All six offensive linemen would likely be below average if forced to start at any of the three open spots and it’s very possible center Andre James will be below average as well.

The Raiders’ only reliable offensive lineman is left tackle Kolton Miller, who saved this offensive line with a strong season in 2021, ranking 8th among offensive tackles on PFF. A first round pick in 2018, Miller’s career got off to a tough start, as he finished his rookie season 81st out of 85 eligible offensive tackles on PFF, but he has improved in every season of his career to get to where he is now. He’s still a one-year wonder as an elite tackle for a whole season, with his next highest finish among offensive tackles on PFF being 34th in 2020, but even if he regresses, Miller should remain at least an above average tackle, on an offensive line otherwise devoid of reliable options.

Grade: C+

Running Backs

As I mentioned, the Raiders struggled on the ground last season. The Raiders were probably expecting their running game to be a strength, given that they invested a 2019 1st round pick in Josh Jacobs and then signed veteran Kenyan Drake to a 2-year, 11 million dollar deal in free agency last off-season to pair with Jacobs, but Jacobs and Drake were not good enough to overcome poor blocking, averaging just 4.02 YPC and 4.03 YPC respectively. 

Drake was also used pretty sparingly given how much the Raiders signed him for, giving him just 63 carries in 12 games before he went down for the season with injury. He wasn’t even their primary passing down back, as many thought he would be when he signed a significant contract with the Raiders, as he played fewer passing down snaps and saw fewer targets than Jacobs, who has always been an underwhelming pass catcher. Drake was the more efficient of the two in passing situations and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him take over more of the passing game work this season, but his career 1.17 yards per route run average is underwhelming and barely better than Jacobs’ career 1.11 yards per route run average. 

Drake does have a career 4.46 YPC average, but he’s unlikely to achieve that mark in 2022 unless the Raiders’ blocking improves. He’s also been at his best in his career as a complementary player, struggling with a 4.00 YPC average in 2020 in the only season of his 6-year career in which he’s surpassed 200 carries. Fortunately, Drake won’t be more than a complementary player behind Josh Jacobs. Jacobs’ didn’t have a good YPC average last season either, but he did finish above average with a 54% carry success rate, with his YPC average being largely the result of a lack of big plays, with just 15.4% of his rushing yardage coming on 7 carries of 15+ yards or more.

Jacobs had largely the same result as 2020, when he had 3.90 YPC, with just 17.6% of his rushing yardage coming on 10 carries of 15+ yards or more, and a 51% carry success rate. Jacobs also had the same 51% carry success rate as a rookie in 2019, but he added 16 runs of 15+ yards or more for 32.3% of his total rushing yardage, leading to a 4.75 YPC average overall. Long runs tend to be inconsistent on a year-to-year basis and Jacobs’ YPC average will likely be held back by his blocking even if he has more long runs, but it is impressive that he’s consistently kept the offense on schedule at an above average rate in all three seasons of his career, despite declining blocking.

If Jacobs misses significant time with injury, the Raiders would likely give 4th round rookie Zamir White, their likely #3 back, a significant role, rather than overloading Drake as a feature back. White likely won’t have much of a role as long as both Jacobs and Drake are healthy, but he’s an injury away from seeing at least some action and both Jacobs and Drake are in the last year of their contracts, so White will have the opportunity to earn the long-term starting job. For now, Jacobs and Drake headline a solid backfield, albeit one that is likely to again be held back by its blocking.

Grade: A-

Edge Defenders

With the Raiders’ offense having problems on the offensive line and on the ground, the biggest reason why they made the playoffs last season was their defense, which ranked 8th in efficiency. That was a big change for a defense that had consistently struggled since trading Khalil Mack before the 2018 season. The reasons why they were so much better last season are complicated, as is whether or not they can continue that into 2022, but the biggest reason was the emergence of edge defender Maxx Crosby.

Crosby’s 8 sacks don’t jump off the page and are in line with the 10 sacks and 7 sacks he had in his first two seasons in the league prior in 2019 and 2020 respectively, but in his first two seasons, he combined for just 15 hits and a 9.1% pressure rate, while struggling against the run, leading to overall middling grades from PFF. In 2021, the 2019 4th round pick took a huge step forward, with 21 hits and a ridiculous 16.9% pressure rate, while playing at a much higher level against the run and finishing as PFF’s 2nd ranked edge defender overall. He also played the 4th most snaps in the league by an edge defender with 926, after ranking 5th at the position with 906 snaps played in 2020.

Crosby is a one-year wonder in terms of being an elite edge defender and it’s definitely possible he won’t be quite as good this season as last year’s dominant season, but he’s also still only in his age 25 season and could easily develop into one of the best edge defenders in the league for years to come. Even if he does regress a little bit, I would still expect a well above average season from him. The Raiders clearly believe in him long-term, locking him up on a 4-year, 94 million extension deal ahead of what would have been the final year of his rookie deal in 2022, making him now the 5th highest paid edge defender in the NFL in average annual salary. He has a good chance to live up to even that lofty price tag.

The Raiders also gave out a big contract this off-season to ex-Cardinals edge defender Chandler Jones, who comes in as a free agent on a 3-year, 51 million dollar deal. The Raiders signed Yannick Ngakoue to a 2-year, 26 million dollar deal last off-season and he was effective as a pass rusher, with 10 sacks, 13 hits, and a 11.2% pressure rate, but he struggled so much against the run that he finished as PFF’s 123rd ranked edge defender out of 129 eligible overall, including a league worst run defense grade for an edge defender. 

Jones is an upgrade at not that much higher of a price and the Raiders were able to flip Ngakoue to the Colts for Rock Ya-Sin, who is inexpensive in the final year of his rookie deal and figures to start at cornerback in 2022. I’ll get into Ya-Sin more in the secondary section, but Jones gives the Raiders someone who is as effective as Ngakoue as a pass rusher, while also holding up as a run defender. In total, Jones has 107.5 sacks, 97 hits, and a 10.6% pressure rate in 10 seasons in the league, while also playing among the most snaps in the league on an annual basis like Crosby, playing 60.6 snaps per game in his career, with 14 games or more played in 8 of 10 seasons in the league. 

Jones is going into his age 32 season and could start to decline soon, but he hasn’t shown many signs of decline yet, having double digit sacks in a season for the 7th time in his career last season and finishing as PFF’s 34th ranked edge defender overall. Even if Jones does decline, he should remain at least an above average option, especially if the Raiders scale his snaps back a little bit, something they can afford to do, given how infrequently Crosby comes off the field.

The Raiders also released the highly paid Carl Nassib this off-season, saving 8 million ahead of the final year of his 3-year, 25 million dollar contract. Nassib isn’t a bad player, but only saw 251 snaps in 13 games as a reserve last season, so moving on from him was an easy decision, with a replacement veteran like Kyler Fackrell available at a much cheaper price, 1.1875 million on a 1-year deal. Fackrell has never been more than a middling player and has just a 9.2% career pressure rate, but he’s generally been a solid rotational reserve option and, even going into his age 31 season, he could still be a solid reserve in a relatively small role.

The Raiders also have 2021 3rd round pick Malcolm Kounce, who played just 48 snaps as a rookie, but could take a step forward in his second season. Clelil Ferrell played a little bit of a role at the edge defender position last season with 261 snaps, but he struggled mightily and has proven to be a bust since being selected 4th overall by the Raiders in 2019, as he’s averaged just 457 snaps per season and a 9.5% pressure rate in three seasons in the league. He’s not guaranteed much, if any role this season, with Fackrell and Kounce possibly both ahead of him on the depth chart as a reserve. Ferrell played on the interior a little bit in the past and might find an easier path to playing time there, as the Raiders have a strong edge defender position, led by Crosby and Jones.

Grade: A

Interior Defenders

Unlike their edge defender position, the Raiders’ interior defender position was a major position of weakness last season, with every player who saw significant action at the position finishing below average on PFF. The Raiders overhauled this position group this off-season, with only veteran Johnathan Hankins (568 snaps) returning from last year’s group. However, most of their additions are very underwhelming, so roles are definitely up for grabs in this group, which is part of why Clelin Ferrell might find more playing time available on the interior, where he’s shown at least some promise in the past, as opposed to his struggles on the edge.

Hankins will likely remain in a significant role, but he struggled mightily last season, finishing 120th out of 146 eligible interior defenders on PFF, and now the 9-year veteran heads into his age 30 season, so his best days could easily be behind him. Hankins has never been much of a pass rusher, with a 5.5% career pressure rate, but that has fallen to 4.2% over the past four seasons and even his run defense has fallen off in recent years, after he was one of the best in the league at his position against the run earlier in his career. He might not be quite as bad in 2022 as he was in 2021, but it also wouldn’t be a surprise if he was just as bad and the Raiders should consider it a win if he even is a capable starter for them this season.

Bilal Nichols was the best of the Raiders’ free agent signings and, while he was the most expensive, he was reasonably paid on a 2-year, 8.625 million dollar deal. A 5th round pick by the Bears in 2018, Nichols has developed into a solid starter, seeing snap counts of 618 and 679 over the past two seasons and proving capable as a pass rusher and run stopper. Nichols wasn’t quite as good in 2021 as he was in 2020, when he finished 27th among interior defenders on PFF in overall grade and totaled 5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 9.3% pressure rate as a pass rusher, but he still finished above average on PFF and had 3 sacks, 7 hits, and a 8.3% pressure rate. Still only in his age 26 season, Nichols may have further untapped upside and, even if he doesn’t, he should remain at least a solid starter in his new home.

The rest of the Raiders’ free agent additions at the position all signed deals close to the minimum, most notably Tyler Lancaster, Vernon Butler, and Andrew Billings, who come to the Raiders from the Packers, Bills, and Browns respectively. None are inspiring options, which is why they came so cheaply. Lancaster has been a decent run stopper in four seasons as a reserve in Green Bay, after signing there as an undrafted free agent in 2018, but he never played more than 381 snaps in a season, struggled mightily as a pass rusher (3.3% pressure rate), and is coming off of a career worst year as a run stopper.

Butler also has mostly been a reserve in his career, maxing out at 440 snaps in 2019 and only playing 285 snaps last season, despite being a first round pick back in 2016. He’s never shown himself to be worth more playing time, finishing below average on PFF in all but one season in the league and now he’s coming off arguably the worst season of his career, finishing 144th among 146 eligible interior defenders on PFF in 2021. Even if he bounces back a little in 2022, he’s unlikely to be anything more than a decent reserve.

Billings probably has the most upside of the bunch, because he earned above average grades from PFF in 2018 and 2019 as a starter with the Bengals, on snap counts of 632 and 657 respectively, holding up as a run defender and totaling 3.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 7.4% pressure rate as a pass rusher between the two seasons. Billings sat out the 2020 season though and was not nearly the same upon his return in 2021, struggling to get on the field in a weak position group with the Browns and looking like a shell of his former self on the 72 snaps he did play. 

Billings is still only in his age 27 season, so there is some bounce back potential here, but he’s nothing more than a flyer for a team desperate for talent at the interior defender position. Given their lack of good veteran options, the Raiders may have to turn to 4th round rookie Neil Farrell or 5th round rookie Matthew Butler, but both would likely struggle if forced into a significant role in year one. This figures to be a position of weakness once again in 2022, even if the personnel is very different than a year ago.

Grade: C

Linebackers

The Raiders’ off ball linebackers were somewhat of a strength last season. They didn’t have any great performances at the position, but three of the four players who saw significant snaps at the position for them last season finished in the 65th percentile or higher of off ball linebackers on PFF, with Denzel Perryman (863 snaps), KJ Wright (426 snaps), and Divine Deablo (297 snaps) finishing 33rd, 29th, and 31st among eligible players at the position. The only one who didn’t, Cory Littleton (663 snaps), is no longer with the team, but Wright is also gone, so the Raiders had to retool this group a little bit this off-season. Their best addition to the group is ex-Titan Jayon Brown, who figures to be a starter and possibly play every down. 

Brown was very inexpensive on a 1-year, 1.25 million dollar, after finishing just 57th among 94 eligible off ball linebackers on PFF last season on 421 snaps in 10 games. He was an above average starter in every season from 2018-2020 though, maxing out at 8th among off ball linebackers on PFF in 2018 and finishing 24th as recently as 2020, and he’s still only in his age 27 season, so he has obvious bounce back potential and could easily prove to be a free agent steal. Durability has been a concern for Brown for years, as he’s missed 17 games total over the past three seasons, and there is some concern that either he will miss more time or that injuries have permanently sapped his abilities and he won’t be able to bounce back, but his age and the recency of his last above average season give him a strong chance to return to form at least somewhat.

Perryman figures to be the other starter, after showing well in that role last season. He’s a one-year wonder as an every down player though, as a combination of injury problems (27 games missed in his first six seasons in the league) and his deficiencies in coverage limited him to a max of just 481 snaps in a season across his first six seasons in the league from 2015-2020, despite originally entering the league as a second round pick. Perryman has always been a solid run stopper and was better in coverage last season, but he now heads into his age 30 season, so it’s fair to wonder if he can repeat last season’s performance, or if his problems in coverage will return, once again in a big role. Durability also remains a concern, as he missed another 2 games last season, even while playing a career high 15 games.

Fortunately, the Raiders have good depth at the position, with Deablo expected to open the season as the third linebacker, after flashing a lot of potential in a limited role as a third round rookie last season. Perryman and Brown both have the potential to be solid every down players, but they’re also shaky options with serious injury histories, so Deablo is great insurance to have and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he found himself in the starting lineup one way or another by the end of the season. 

The Raiders also added veterans Micah Kiser and Kenny Young in free agency this off-season, but I wouldn’t expect either to have much of a role, barring a rash of injuries. Kiser played a significant role in 2020 with the Rams (559 snaps), but struggled mightily, finishing 92nd out of 99 eligible off ball linebackers on PFF and was limited to just defensive 98 snaps in 2021. Kiser was a 5th round pick in 2018, but, aside from his terrible 2020 campaign, he’s played just 99 other defensive snaps in his career. 

Young has more experience, but the 2018 4th round pick has finished below average on PFF in all four seasons in the league, including a 59th ranked finish out of 94 eligible off ball linebackers on a career high 645 snaps last season. Even still, last season might have been the best season of Young’s career, which should tell you how bad he’s been in other seasons. There are some questions at the top of this linebacker group, but their three best linebackers all have the upside to be above average starters and they have some experienced depth as well.

Grade: B+

Secondary

The position where the Raiders figure to see the most decline on defense this season is cornerback. I mentioned they traded Yannick Ngakoue for Rock Ya-Sin and that he will likely start at cornerback. Ya-Sin was a 2nd round pick in 2019 and has shown some promise in three seasons in the league, albeit as more of a reserve than a regular starter, starting 29 of the 41 games he played in his career and finishing above average on PFF in two of his three seasons in the league, including a career best 29th ranked finish on 592 snaps in 2021. It’s better for the Raiders to have Ya-Sin at a 2.54 million dollar salary in the final year of his rookie deal than Ngakoue at 13 million in the final year of his contract, but Ya-Sin is effectively replacing Casey Hayward, who was PFF’s 16th ranked cornerback last season, while making all 17 starts, and Ya-Sin will almost definitely be a significant downgrade from Hayward.

Slot cornerback Nate Hobbs also had a strong season last year, finishing 11th among cornerbacks on PFF on 837 snaps, with 83.8% of those snaps coming on the slot, where he allowed just 0.78 yards per route run, 4th best in the NFL. It’s fair to wonder if he can be that good again though, given that he was just a 5th round pick a year ago. It’s possible he could develop into consistently one of the best slot cornerbacks in the league, but the fact that most of the league passed on him 4-5 times a year ago isn’t irrelevant yet. If he declines significantly, along with Ya-Sin being a downgrade from Hayward, this cornerback group would go from a significant strength to a much more underwhelming group. Hobbs is also likely a slot only option and not a strong candidate to play a significant role outside.

The Raiders do get Trayvon Mullen back from injury after he missed all but 229 snaps in five games last season, but the 2019 2nd round pick has been underwhelming in his career, including a 89th ranked finish out of 136 eligible cornerbacks in 2020 in his lone full season as a starter. He may still have untapped potential, only in his age 25 season, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he didn’t improve. He should be an upgrade on his backup last season Brandon Facyson though, even if only by default, as Facyson was PFF’s 120th ranked cornerback out of 134 eligible in nine starts in 2021 as an injury fill-in for Mullen.

If injuries strike again this season, the Raiders have veteran Anthony Averett as their 4th cornerback, signing him from the Ravens this off-season. Averett struggled in the first extended starting experience of his career last season though, making 14 starts after making 7 starts in the first three seasons in the league and finishing as PFF’s 107th ranked cornerback out of 134 eligible. He would be an underwhelming option if he had to see significant action, so the Raiders need Mullen to stay healthy as the other starting outside cornerback opposite Ya-Sin, with Hobbs as the slot cornerback.

Like Nate Hobbs, fellow 2021 draft pick safety Trevon Moehrig was a big part of the reason for the Raiders’ success in the secondary last season, finishing 24th among safeties on PFF and, unlike Hobbs, Moehrig was a high draft pick, going 43rd overall in the 2nd round, so he has a much better chance of continuing his high level of play going forward. Development isn’t always linear and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he had a little bit of a sophomore slump, but he looks likely to develop into consistently one of the better safeties in the league long-term. He’s probably their best defensive back now that Hayward is no longer on the team. 

Johnathan Abram is likely to remain as the other starting safety, even though he was a liability in 14 starts in 2021, finishing 79th out of 98 eligible safeties on PFF. Abram was a first round pick in 2019, but last season was actually by far the best season of his career, even though he struggled, which should tell you how much he struggled in his first two seasons. He also played more snaps in 2021 than he did in his first two seasons in the league combined, playing 955 snaps, after playing 904 total from 2019 to 2020. He still missed three games last season, but that’s nothing compared to the 18 games combined he missed in his first two seasons in the league. 

Abram still theoretically has upside, in his age 26 season, but his career so far has been filled with injuries and struggles and it would be a surprise if he was even able to be a consistently solid starter for most of the season without getting hurt. He’ll likely keep his job in 2022, but that’s mostly for lack of a better option and he could be on a short leash if he regresses to his 2020 form, when he finished dead last out of 99 eligible safeties on PFF.

Abram’s biggest competition for the starting job is veteran Duron Harmon, who was signed to a near minimum contract as a free agent this off-season. Harmon is plenty experienced, with 62 starts in 144 games in 9 seasons in the league, while missing only one game ever. Harmon has made every start over the past two seasons, first for the Lions in 2020 and then in 2021, but he was underwhelming in 2020 and then struggled mightily in 2021, finishing 77th out of 98 eligible safeties. 

Now going into his age 31 season, it’s unlikely Harmon is going to bounce back significantly, but it’s possible he could be a capable starter if needed and he’s not a bad backup option. The Raiders also have 2021 4th round pick Tyree Gillespie, but he played just 11 snaps as a rookie, so he would obviously be a projection to a larger role. This isn’t a bad secondary, but, with Casey Hayward gone and Nate Hobbs a regression candidate, this is unlikely to be nearly as good as last year’s group, especially if either of their starting safeties can’t repeat what they did last season.

Grade: B

Special Teams

The Raiders had slightly below average special teams last season, ranking 21st in special teams DVOA. Kicker Daniel Carlson and punter AJ Cole both had above average seasons again, but their return game was underwhelming, especially in kickoff return, ranking 25th in the NFL with 19.8 yards per kickoff return, and they lacked special teams depth outside of their two top special teamers, Foster Moreau and Divine Deablo. Their depth should be somewhat better this season and, though they could still struggle in the return game, this could end up being an average special teams unit overall.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Raiders made two splash additions this off-season with Davante Adams and Chandler Jones, but those moves left them limited in what else they could do this off-season, leaving needs largely unaddressed on the offensive line and at the interior defender and safety positions, while not adequately replacing their departed top cornerback Casey Hayward. This was a playoff team a year ago and they have a chance to make it back in 2022, but they play in the tougher of the two conferences in the toughest division in football, so it’s very possible they could end up on the outside looking in at the end of the season. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Final Prediction: The Raiders will compete for a playoff spot even in the loaded AFC, but ultimately they’re likely to be on the outside looking in, especially when you consider they have to play six games in the toughest division in football, with all three other AFC West teams looking better than them right now.

Prediction: 8-9, 4th in AFC West

Detroit Lions 2022 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2022 NFL Season Previews, Lions

Quarterback

Last off-season, after years of mediocrity and four straight playoff absences, the Lions were forced to start a rebuild, when long-time franchise quarterback Matt Stafford requested a trade, after 12 seasons and no playoff wins with the team he joined as the #1 overall pick in 2009. The Lions had offers that included first round picks in the 2021 NFL Draft, including the Panthers’ 8th overall pick and the 19th overall pick and a third round pick from Washington. 

Had they accepted either one of those trades, the Lions could have used their own first round pick, 7th overall, to select a quarterback of the future in one of the better quarterback classes in recent memory, with both Justin Fields and Mac Jones available to them at that slot. That would have given them a potential franchise quarterback on a cheap contract long-term, which would have been a great start to their rebuild, along with the extra draft picks they would have acquired for Stafford. 

Instead, they opted to trade Stafford to the Rams for a package that included two first round picks, as well as a third round pick, which is more draft compensation than Washington or Carolina were offering, but it’s not as simple as that. The picks the Rams were offering were in 2022 and 2023, rather than 2021, and draft picks are usually valued equal to a round lower if they are a year in the future, meaning that in real terms the Lions only got a second round pick and two third round picks for Stafford.

On top of that, the trade required the Lions to take back Rams starting quarterback Jared Goff, which should have been a negative value, as acquiring him locked them into paying the mediocre starting quarterback 51.8 million for 2021 and 2022, rather than getting to use their first round pick to select a cheaper quarterback. Deciding to go with the Rams’ offer prolonged the Lions rebuild, unable to turn to a cheap, young starting quarterback until 2023. That does line up with when they’ll have used the two first round picks by and when the Lions will have more cap space available in free agency, but the Lions basically locked themselves into two bad years in 2021 and 2022 in the meantime, at the very least.

The first year went about as expected, with the Lions ranking 21st in offensive efficiency, 30th in defensive efficiency, and 27th in overall efficiency, while finishing with the 2nd worst record in the league at 3-13-1. That got them the #2 overall pick in the draft, but the Rams ended up winning the Super Bowl in Stafford’s first season with the team, pushing their draft pick to 32. This wasn’t a good quarterback draft anyway so it’s not a huge deal that they’re stuck with Goff for another season, as they would not have been able to find an upgrade in this year’s draft, but it was surprising they didn’t add a single quarterback in the draft, with backups Tim Boyle and David Blough being among the most underwhelming in the league.

Boyle was the backup last season and the 2018 undrafted free agent made the first three starts of his career, but he was a major liability, completing 64.9% of his passes for an average of 5.60 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, after having only attempted four passes in his career prior to last season. Blough, on the other hand, didn’t attempt a pass last season as the 3rd quarterback, but he did start 5 games and attempt 184 passes as Matt Stafford’s backup in 2019-2020 and, like Boyle, the 2019 undrafted free agent Blough also struggled mightily, completing 54.3% of his passes for an average of 5.61 YPA, 4 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. Whoever wins the backup job in 2022 would almost definitely be a big liability if forced into significant action.

Given their backup quarterback situation, it would have made sense for the Lions to take a quarterback in this past draft, at least at some point, as a developmental backup option who could potentially push to start in 2023, when the guaranteed money on Goff’s contract runs out. Instead, the Lions will bring back the same quarterbacks for another year, clearly with an eye on taking their quarterback of the future with a high pick in a much better quarterback draft next year. 

Goff wasn’t horrible in his first season in Detroit, but did not show himself to be a franchise caliber quarterback long-term, especially not one who is worth the kind of money he gets paid. In total, Goff completed 67.2% of his passes for an average of 6.57 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions, while finishing as PFF’s 31st ranked quarterback out of 39 eligible. That was his worst PFF grade since his rookie season in 2016, but that’s not surprising, given that it was his first season since his rookie season without offensive mastermind Sean McVay as his head coach. 

Goff completed 64.3% of his passes for an average of 7.71 YPA, 102 touchdowns, and 48 interceptions in 62 starts in four seasons on the Rams with McVay, but he benefited from great talent and coaching around him and it’s not surprising that the Rams were able to get over the hump and win a Super Bowl in their first season after upgrading on him with Stafford. Goff might get better play around him this season, which would make this team more competitive, but it’s hard to see them being a real playoff contender this season, still early in their rebuild, having not yet found their long-term quarterback.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

One reason to expect better play from the Lions’ supporting cast this season is they should be healthier, after having the third most adjusted games lost to injury of any team in the league in 2021. No unit on this team was more affected by injuries than the Lions’ offensive line, with none of their expected starters playing every game and arguably their top most important offensive linemen, left tackle Taylor Decker and center Frank Ragnow, being limited to just nine starts and four starts respectively. This season, the Lions’ brought back their entire expected starting five from last season and, if they can stay relatively healthy, this offensive line has a good chance to be an above average unit.

With Decker and Ragnow missing significant time, Penei Sewell was their most important offensive lineman last season. Sewell was selected with the 7th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, the pick that the Lions opted not to use on a quarterback, and, while the Lions could have had Sewell and a quarterback if they had sent Stafford to Carolina for the 8th pick, it’s hard to argue that the Lions made a bad selection with Sewell, after a rookie season in which he was PFF’s 25th offensive tackle. 

Sewell began the season at left tackle with Decker missing the first 8 games of the season and then moved to the right side upon Decker’s return in week 10. Sewell will stay at right tackle in 2022 with Decker returning, which should be a good thing for his development, as he was PFF’s 8th ranked offensive tackle from week 10 on, after moving from the left side. Not even 22 until October, Sewell has a sky high upside and could easily develop into one of the best right tackles in the league for years to come, while also having the versatility to play on the left side if needed.

Decker still played like he usually does when he was in the lineup last season and he should have no problem returning to form and locking down the left tackle position in 2022, still in his prime in his age 29 season, having played in every game in 4 of 6 seasons in the league, since being selected 16th overall by the Lions in 2016. In his 4 healthy seasons, Decker has finished 16th, 37th, 17th, and 11th among offensive tackles on PFF and he was PFF’s 24th ranked offensive tackle from week 10 on last season. Barring another significant injury, he should be somewhere in that range again in 2022. He’ll be an obvious upgrade on Matt Nelson, a 2019 undrafted free agent who struggled mightily at right tackle when Decker was hurt, ranking 85th out of 88 eligible offensive tackles in the first significant action of his career in 2021.

Ragnow is also a former first round pick, selected 20th overall in the 2018 NFL Draft. He spent his rookie year as the starter at left guard and was not bad, finishing 33rd among guards on PFF in 16 starts, but he excelled when he moved to center in year two, finishing the 2019 season as PFF’s 6th ranked center in 15 starts and then finishing 2020 as PFF’s 2nd ranked center in 14 starts. As a result of his high level of play in 2019 and 2020, the Lions gave Ragnow a 4-year, 54 million dollar extension last off-season.

That extension made Ragnow the highest paid center in the league in average annual salary, and he was off to arguably the best start of his career before getting injured, ranking #1 among centers on PFF through the first four weeks of the season. Only in his age 26 season, without a significant injury history, Ragnow has a great chance to bounce back in 2022 and could even have the best season of his career if he continues his dominant play from the start of last season. In addition to being a dominant center, Ragnow could also move to guard in a pinch if needed, though he probably wouldn’t be quite as good there.

At guard, Jonah Jackson and Halapoulivaati Vaitai return as the starters on the left side and the right side respectively, after starting 16 games and 15 games respectively in 2021 and finishing above average on PFF. For Jackson, his 24th ranked finish among guards on PFF was a big step forward from his underwhelming rookie season, when the 2020 3rd round pick finished 63rd out of 92 eligible guards on PFF. He’s unproven and could regress a little in 2022, but he also could have permanently turned the corner as a player and, in that case, will remain an above average starter going forward, possibly one with further untapped upside.

Vaitai, meanwhile, is a 6-year veteran heading into his 3rd season with the Lions, after signing a 5-year, 45 million dollar contract two off-seasons ago. It was a surprising amount of money, considering the 2016 5th round pick had only made 20 starts in four seasons with the Eagles as a reserve, with just 4 of those starts coming in the previous two seasons. Vaitai had shown some promise on occasion in his limited action, but finished 72nd out of 92 eligible offensive tackles on PFF in 2017 in his longest stretch as a starter to that point in his career, so he didn’t seem like someone who would command above average starter money in free agency.

Vaitai was underwhelming in 450 snaps in his first season in Detroit in 2020, seeing action at both tackle and guard, and he looked like he would be a free agent bust. However, he was significantly better as a full-time guard in 2021, finishing 32nd among guards on PFF, leading to the Lions keeping him for 2022 at a non-guaranteed 7 million dollar salary, without a better option available. He’s still entering something of a make or break 2022 season, owed 9.5 million non-guaranteed in 2023, and he could easily struggle, given his history of inconsistency, in which case he would likely be let go after the season. He’s probably the weak point on what has the potential to be a strong offensive line, even if Vaitai does regress a little.

Depth is a bit of a concern for this group though. I mentioned that swing tackle Matt Nelson struggled mightily when forced into action last season. The same was true of backup guard Tommy Kraemer, who was forced into 238 snaps as an undrafted rookie in 2021 and would likely struggle if forced back into action in year two. Their best reserve is backup center Evan Brown, a 2018 undrafted free agent who held up pretty well in the first 12 starts of his career in place of Ragnow last season, finishing 18th among centers on PFF, slightly above average. The Lions are obviously hoping he doesn’t have to see significant action again though, especially since this group has a lot of upside and talent if the starters stay relatively healthy.

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

The Lions’ receiving corps was their biggest weakness on offense last season by far and injuries weren’t even the problem, as they entered the season with arguably the least talented group of wide receivers of any team in the league. As a result, a 5th round rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown was able to lead this group with a 90/912/5 slash line and 1.74 yards per route run. St. Brown didn’t just lead this group by default either, finishing the season as PFF’s 17th ranked wide receiver. It’s a bit concerning that the whole league let St. Brown fall to the 5th round just a year ago and he might not have real #1 wide receiver upside long-term, but he has a good chance to remain at least a useful complementary receiver going forward.

The Lions built out the rest of this receiving corps around St. Brown this off-season, signing ex-Jaguar DJ Chark in free agency and trading up with their first round pick from the Rams to select Alabama’s Jameson Williams, so St. Brown will likely see a smaller target share this season, but he could also be more efficient on a per play basis if he’s no longer the focus of opposing defenses, with more talent around him. Williams and Chark will likely be the starters in three wide receiver sets with St. Brown, but both are also coming off of significant injuries, so they come with some questions. 

That’s especially true of Williams, who tore his ACL in the college football playoff. If not for the injury, he likely would have been a top-10 lock and the first wide receiver off the board, but even if he’s on the field week 1, he might not be 100% right away and he could easily be behind the eight ball as a rookie, likely to miss most or all of the off-season program. He has the upside to be a long-term #1 receiver and one of the best wide receivers in the league, but he’s unlikely to show that in year one.

Chark, meanwhile, is coming off of a fractured ankle that ended his 2021 season after four games. The injury was early enough in the season that it’s unlikely to affect him into 2022 and he has 1,000 yard season on his resume, but he only averaged 1.69 yards per route run in that 1,000 yard season in 2019 (73/1008/8), achieving those numbers in large part due to volume. Even that is better than the middling 1.49 yards per route run that he has averaged in his career. He also only finished 27th among wide receivers on PFF in overall grade in 2019 and that is still the best finish of his career. 

Chark is a 2018 2nd round pick with a lot of talent, who is still only going into his age 26 season, so he comes with some upside and wasn’t a bad signing for the Lions on a relatively cheap 1-year, 10 million dollar deal, but he’s more of a #2 receiver than a #1 receiver. Kalif Raymond was the de facto #2 wide receiver last season, finishing 2nd among Lions wide receivers with a 48/576/4 slash line, but he averaged just 1.23 yards per route run and finished below average on PFF. He also had just 19 catches in 5 seasons in the league prior to last season, as primarily a special teams player. In a much deeper position group in 2022, Raymond is unlikely to have much, if any role.

Quintez Cephus and Josh Reynolds only played 5 games and 7 games respectively for the Lions last season, but they weren’t bad, with averages of 1.57 yards per route run and 1.55 yards per route run, leading to slash lines of 15/204/2 and 19/306/2 respectively in their limited action. They’ll compete for the #4 receiver job in 2022, meaning they could see significant action early in the season depending on Jameson Williams’ readiness. 


Cephus is a 2020 5th round pick who began last season as a starter after flashing on limited action as a rookie (1.62 yards per route run, 20/349/2) and he was off to a solid start to the 2021 season, but he went down for the year with a shoulder injury after week 5. He doesn’t have a clear role right now, but could play his way into playing time and, still only in his age 24 season, could still develop into a starter long-term. Reynolds, on the other hand, ended last season as a starter for the Lions, starting the final six games of the season after joining as a mid-season signing, following his release by the Titans. 

Reynolds was a disappointment in his lone season in Tennessee, averaging 1.14 yards per route run and getting released after week 8, but he wasn’t terrible in three seasons as a #3/#4 receiver with Jared Goff and the Rams from 2018-2020, averaging 1.25 yards per route run. Drafted in the 4th round by the Rams in 2017, Reynolds seems to at least have decent chemistry with Jared Goff and, while he would be an underwhelming starting option, he’s a decent #4 option and would give them especially good depth as the #5 receiver if the promising Cephus wins the #4 receiver job. This is a much deeper wide receiver group than a year ago.

Tight end TJ Hockenson was expected to be the focus of the passing game last season and, while St. Brown’s emergence took away some targets as an underneath option, he still was a good receiving tight end for them until he went down for the year in week 13, posting a 61/583/4 slash line in 12 games, which extrapolates to 86/826/6 over a full 17 games. Selected 8th overall by the Lions in 2019, Hockenson also had a 67/723/6 slash line in 16 games in 2020 and has averaged 1.53 yards per route run over the past two seasons combined. He has struggled at times as a blocker, but he’s still only going into his age 25 season and has the upside to get better, both as a blocker and a receiver. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he had a career best receiving total, even with the Lions having more wide receiver talent this season.

Brock Wright took over as the starting tight end down the stretch last season when Hockenson was out and the undrafted rookie predictably struggled, finishing 57th out of 63 eligible tight ends on PFF across 305 snaps. Wright could open the 2022 season as the #2 tight end and he could be a little bit better, but he could also be pushed for his job by raw 5th round rookie James Mitchell and, even if Wright keeps the job, he’s unlikely to be used as more than just a blocking tight end. The Lions also won’t need to run many two tight end sets this season, given their depth at the wide receiver position. They might lack a true #1 wide receiver, but this is a deep group overall with some promising young players.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

Lacking talent in the receiving corps, Jared Goff frequently checked down to his running back last season, with 24.1% of the team’s targets going to running backs, the majority going to their primary passing down back D’Andre Swift, whose 78 targets were 3rd on the team behind St. Brown and Hockenson. Running back check downs tend to be low yardage plays and, unsurprisingly, the Lions averaged just 5.59 yards per pass attempt on throws to running backs, with even Swift averaging just 5.79 yards per target. A 2nd round pick by the Lions in 2020, Swift is a talented receiving back, but his career 1.48 yards per route run is underwhelming compared to what a good wide receiver would average, so the Lions are unlikely to target him in the passing game quite as much this season, with more downfield options available. 

Their other primary running back Jamaal Williams is not as good of a receiver (1.13 yards per route run in his career) and only received 28 targets last season, but he was a much better pass blocker than Swift, who struggled in that aspect, and Williams was also the better runner as well. Swift and Williams both saw pretty even carry totals, seeing 151 carries and 153 carries respectively, with both backs also missing four games each with injury, and Swift actually had a slightly better yards per carry average with 4.09, as compared to 3.93 for Williams, but Swift ran in more favorable situations and Williams was significantly better in carry success rate, ranking 18th at 54%, while Swift was dead last among 50 running backs at 36%.

Williams’ yards per carry average was low because he only had two carries for 15 yards or more, going for just 39 yards total, which has always been a problem for him, with just 11 carries of 15 yards or more across 500 total attempts in the first four seasons of his career from 2019-2020. Williams still averaged 4.30 YPC and 4.24 YPC respectively in 2019 and 2020 though despite his lack of long runs, ranking 7th and 6th respectively among running backs with carry success rates of 53% and 57% respectively.

Williams was playing on a much better Packers offense in 2019 and 2020, but he showed the ability to consistently keep the inferior Lions offense on schedule at an above average rate last season as well and he should be able to continue that this season, likely at a higher rate with a higher YPC, on what should be overall a better offense. Williams might not do much on passing downs, but he’s a useful early down runner to have and would take on close to an every down role if Swift missed time with injury again (7 games missed in his first two seasons in the league). 

Swift had a better year as a runner as a rookie in 2020, ranking 16th in carry success rate at 54% and averaging 4.57 YPC, and he has the potential to be a better runner in 2022, even if he’s still likely to split carries with Williams. With Williams and Swift both missing time last season, backups Godwin Igwebuike, Craig Reynolds, and Jermar Jefferson all saw some action and they all were pretty good, averaging 6.56 YPC on 18 carries, 4.18 YPC on 55 carries, and 4.93 YPC on 15 carries respectively. 

Igwebuike and Reynolds are both former undrafted free agents, in 2018 and 2019 respectively, who both just saw the first carries of their careers last season, while Jefferson was just a 7th round rookie a year ago, so they’re very unproven, but they’re good depth to have, with the three of them expected to compete for the #3 running back job. This isn’t a great backfield, but they’re not bad and they have good depth.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The Lions weren’t horrible on offense last season and should be at least somewhat better on that side of the ball this season, with their offensive line expected to be healthier and their receiving corps being more talented, but the Lions’ biggest weakness last season was their defense and they’ll need to be significantly improved on that side of the ball if they are going to be remotely competitive this season. The Lions didn’t make any big free agent additions to their defense this off-season and are unlikely to be improved enough for them to seriously compete to make the post-season, but there are still some reasons to be optimistic that the Lions can at least be somewhat better on this side of the ball as well, even if only by default.

For starters, they used their 2nd overall pick on edge defender Aidan Hutchinson, an NFL ready player who many considered the best prospect in the draft. Hutchinson doesn’t have a huge ceiling and probably would go outside of the top-5 most years, but he still has the potential to have a big impact in year one and ultimately to develop into a consistently above average starter long-term. The Lions also used a 2nd round pick on another edge defender Josh Paschal, but he’s much less certain to make a big impact in as a rookie. He could carve out a rotational role, but Hutchinson should be locked into something at least resembling a starter’s snap count and has a good chance to lead this position group in snaps played.

The Lions also get Romeo Okwara back from a torn achilles that ended his 2021 season after four games, a big re-addition, given that he led this team with 10 sacks in 2020, while adding 9 hits and a 14.4% pressure rate, leading to the Lions re-signing him to a 3-year, 37 million dollar deal in free agency. Okwara is not an effective run defender and he’s a one-year wonder in terms of being a double digit sack producer, but he totaled 19 sacks, 24 hits, and a 11.0% pressure rate in 45 games in his three seasons from 2018-2020, prior to his injury, so, if he can be at least close to 100% in 2022, he should be at least a solid starter, still only in his age 27 season. It’s concerning that he’s coming off such a serious injury, but he will be close to a year removed from it by week 1, which gives him a better chance of returning to form in his first season back.

Charles Harris led this position group with 871 snaps last season and, while he figures to have a much smaller role in 2022, with Hutchinson and Paschal coming and Okwara returning, Harris actually played pretty well last season and was brought back as a free agent on a contract worth 13 million over 2 years, so he’ll continue having a significant role. Harris especially fared well as a pass rusher last season, leading the team with 7.5 sacks and adding 8 hits and a 11.6% pressure rate.

It’s the kind of play that the Dolphins were envisioning for Harris when they drafted him in the first round in 2017, but he didn’t show much in three seasons in Miami, nor did he in his lone season in Atlanta in 2020, before breaking out in his first season in Detroit in 2021. In total, Harris had just 6.5 sacks, 16 hits, and a 9.1% pressure rate in 54 career games prior to last season, so he’s a complete one-year wonder and could easily regress, but he should benefit from playing fewer snaps and it’s very possible that the talented first round pick is a late bloomer who has permanently turned a corner and will remain at least an above average rotational player, still only going into his age 27 season.

Aside from Harris and the limited action Okwara played before his injury, most of the edge defenders who played for the Lions last season were underwhelming at best, but 2020 3rd round pick Julian Okwara, Romeo’s younger brother, showed promise on 361 snaps, especially flashing talent as a pass rusher, with a 12.1% pressure rate. He’s still very inexperienced, only playing 69 underwhelming snaps as a rookie before last year’s limited role, but he could easily continue being effective in a rotational role and he has the upside to develop into more than a rotational player long-term. The Lions lack a top level edge defender, but have a deep group with some promising young players, led by #2 overall pick Aidan Hutchinson.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

The interior defender position was a big weakness for the Lions last season and, unlike the edge defender position, the Lions don’t have any key off-season additions or players returning from injury on the interior. Nick Williams, who was awful last season as the team’s leader in snaps played by an interior defender, is no longer with the team, after he finished 103rd out of 146 eligible interior defenders on PFF, and that is addition by subtraction, but, aside from that, the Lions are just hoping for more out of second year players Levi Onwuzurike and Alim McNeil, who they selected in the second and third round respectively last season.

Both were only rotational players as rookies last season and they saw similar snap counts, but McNeil actually played slightly more (422 vs. 396) and was the significantly better of the two overall, finishing in the 54th percentile among interior defenders on PFF, while Onwuzurike finished in the 9th percentile, despite his higher draft status. Onwuzurike especially struggled as a pass rusher, with a 1.6% pressure rate, as opposed to 5.5% for McNeil, who was also the better run defender. Both still have the upside to develop into starters long-term and both are likely to get a chance to play significantly more snaps this season, but McNeil seems like the more likely of the two to do so.

The Lions are also hoping for a bounce back year from veteran Michael Brockers, which they could get, but that’s far from a guarantee, given that Brockers is going into his age 32 season. A first round pick in 2012, Brockers finished average or better on PFF in each of his first 9 seasons in the league prior to last season, not playing at a high level as a pass rusher, but consistently being above average against the run. However, Brockers struggled in both aspects last season, finishing 137th out of 146 eligible interior defenders on PFF in overall grade across 622 snaps. He could bounce back a little bit in 2022, but it’s also possible last season was the beginning of the end for him and, either way, his best days are almost definitely behind him. 

The Lions don’t have much depth behind Onwuzurike, McNeil, and Brockers, so they’ll likely have to turn to John Penisini as a reserve again, even though he’s struggled mightily in that role, since being drafted in the 6th round in 2020. He was forced into 576 snaps as a rookie, finishing 130th out of 139 eligible interior defenders, but he wasn’t much better in a smaller snap count in 2021, when he played just 276 snaps total. The Lions would probably prefer him closer to that number in 2022, but this isn’t a deep position as it is, so if injuries strike, Penisini would likely be forced into a larger role. This position is still a big weakness.

Grade: C

Linebackers

Linebacker was also a big position of weakness last season and it could be an even bigger weakness in 2022, with Jalen Maybin-Reeves, their best linebacker by far last season, no longer with the team. Maybin-Reeves was only a middling player across 615 snaps, but he was still significantly better than Alex Anzalone (827 snaps) and Derrick Barnes (448 snaps), who finished 87th and 92nd respectively out of 94 eligible off ball linebackers on PFF last season and who could easily be their top-2 off ball linebackers in 2022.

Anzalone played better in the first four seasons of his career with the Saints, prior to joining the Lions last off-season, but he never played more than 525 snaps in a season in New Orleans, missing most of the 2017 and 2019 season with injury and only being a part-time player in his healthy seasons in 2018 and 2020. He might be better in a smaller role in 2022, but the Lions might not have a choice except to play him in a significant role again and he could easily struggle again, even if he may have a little bit of bounce back potential and could be better, even if only by default. Barnes, meanwhile, was a 4th round rookie last season and could take a step forward in year two, but there is no guarantee he ever develops into a capable starter.

The Lions signed veteran Jarrad Davis in free agency to give them some depth at the position and he could compete for a significant role, given their lack of other options. This is a homecoming for Davis, who spent the first four seasons of his career in Detroit, before spending a single season with the Jets in 2021. Davis’ year with the Jets was a disaster though, as he missed the first half of the season with injury and was awful upon his return, finishing dead last among off ball linebackers on PFF across 209 snaps.

Davis was a lot better in 2020 in his final season in Detroit, finishing 30th among off ball linebackers on PFF, but that was only on a snap count of 329 and, as an every down linebacker in the first three seasons of his career, Davis struggled mightily, proving to be a bust as a 2017 1st round pick. Davis could be a good part-time linebacker this season, but even that isn’t a guarantee he would almost definitely struggle if forced into a significant role, which could easily be the case, given how thin this position group is. Sixth round rookie Malcolm Rodriguez could also push for snaps at some point, especially if the Lions want to give their young players action down the stretch in an otherwise lost season.

Grade: C-

Secondary

The Lions also had a lot of problems in the secondary last season, but there are reasons to believe they can be better this season, even if largely by default. For one, they added a couple of veterans in free agency who will likely start, signing safety DeShon Elliott and cornerback Mike Hughes. Neither came at an expensive price, signing 1-year deals worth 1.1 million and 2.25 million respectively, but both have a good chance to be valuable for the Lions.

Elliott’s biggest problem is injuries, as, not only did his 2021 season end after six games due to injury, but he also suffered season ending injuries in 2018 and 2019, limiting the 2018 6th round pick to just 40 snaps total in his first two seasons in the league. Elliott has always been a solid player when on the field in his career, including a 2020 season where he was a 16-game starter, and he’s still only going into his age 25 season, so he has a great chance to be at least a solid starter for the Lions this season if healthy, but that could be a big if. 

As long as he’s on the field, it won’t be hard for Elliott to be an upgrade on incumbent starter Will Harris, who will be the 3rd safety at best going into the 2022 season, after finishing 97th out of 98 eligible safeties on PFF as a 17-game starter last season. A 3rd round pick in 2019, Harris also struggled on snap counts of 668 and 312 in 2019 and 2020 respectively. If Elliott is healthy, Harris could see some action in three safety sets, which the Lions ran somewhat frequently in sub packages last season to mask their lack of depth at linebacker. Harris could still struggle in that role, but it’s better than having him in the starting lineup.

Tracy Walker remains as the other starting safety next to Elliott, after being retained on a 3-year, 25 million dollar deal as a free agent this off-season. Walker has been inconsistent, falling from 26th among safeties on PFF in 2019 to all the way down to 86th in 2020, before bouncing back to a middling 46th ranked finish in 2021, so it’s hard to know what to expect from him this season, but the 2018 3rd round pick at least has some upside and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him at least be a middling starter again in 2022.

Hughes will likely start in three cornerback sets alongside Amani Oruwariye and Jeff Okudah, the latter of whom is returning after a lost season due to injury and will return this season, another reason why the Lions’ secondary should be better this season. Okudah struggled mightily as a rookie in 2020, finishing 125th out of 136 eligible cornerbacks on PFF, before being limited to just 48 snaps by a torn achilles last season, but he’ll be a full year removed from the achilles tear by week 1 and the former 3rd overall pick is still only going into his age 23 season, so he still has plenty to time to make good on his high upside. He’s something of a wild card and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he struggled again, but it also wouldn’t be a surprise if he was a real asset in the third season of his career in 2022.

Hughes was something of a flyer for the Lions this off-season, but he comes with a lot of upside, as the 2018 1st round pick is still only in his age 25 season and is coming off of a career best season, finishing 8th among cornerbacks on PFF on a career high 509 snaps in Kansas City. He’s a complete one-year wonder who has never been a full-time starter in his career and injuries were a big problem for him early in his career, costing him 24 games across his first three seasons before he played in all 17 last season, but if he can stay healthy, he has the upside to be an above average starter. Oruwariye led this position group with 937 snaps last season and will likely remain a starter, even though the 2019 5th round pick has been mediocre in that role over the past two seasons (29 starts). 

It’s possible Oruwariye and Hughes could face competition from 2021 3rd round pick Ifeatu Melifonwu, who flashed on 242 snaps as a rookie and who could push for a larger role in year two. AJ Parker (556 snaps) and Jerry Jacobs (535 snaps) saw significant action last season as well, despite being undrafted rookies and, while Jacobs flashed a little potential, Parker struggled mightily and both are unlikely to have much, if any role this season. This isn’t a great secondary and it might not even be a good secondary, but it will be much more serviceable than last season.

Grade: B-

Special Teams

The Lions actually had an above average special teams last season, ranking 10th in special teams DVOA. They have a good chance to be above average again in 2022, bringing back all of their key players. Austin Seibert and Riley Patterson both saw action at kicker last season and will compete for the starting job, with Jack Fox locked in as the starting punter again and Godwin Igwebuike and Kalif Raymond returning as their returners. Jason Cabinda and CJ Moore headline their special teams coverage unit, with both finishing in the top-50 among special teamers on PFF last season, as well as free agent acquisition Chris Board, who was also in the top-50 last season as well, as a member of the Ravens. At the very least, this should be at least an average special teams unit.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Lions should be better than a year ago and their offense has a good chance of being at least a decent unit, but their defense is likely to remain among the worst in the league and overall this team still seems like it’s at least a year away from being legitimate playoff contenders, still in the middle of a multi-year rebuild process. They’ll likely be competitive in most of their games, but ultimately they’re likely to finish sub-.500 for at least another season. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Final Prediction: Not much has changed for a Lions team that figures to be more competitive this season, but to still finish sub-.500, primarily due to a defense that remains a significant concern.

Prediction: 7-10, 3rd in NFC North

Chicago Bears 2022 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2022 NFL Season Previews, Bears

Quarterback

Four years ago, the Bears had a first year head coach in Matt Nagy and a promising second year quarterback Mitch Trubisky, who they had drafted 2nd overall the year before. Believing Trubisky was the quarterback who could lead them to a Super Bowl and wanting to strike while he was still on a cheap rookie deal, the Bears were aggressive adding talent on big contracts during the 2018 off-season, after having already been aggressive adding big contracts over the previous two off-seasons. 

Because of all their off-season spending, the Bears entered the 2018 season 3rd in terms of average annual salary of their roster, despite having a quarterback on a cheap rookie deal, and most players lived up to their big salaries, leading the Bears to a 12-4 season, on the strength of a league best defense. However, the Bears lost in the first round of the post-season and that proved to be the peak of the Mitch Trubisky era. 

Despite their success in 2018, Trubisky himself did not progress much from his rookie season and, with their defense becoming increasingly tough to keep together long-term, Trubisky did not elevate his play to compensate for their defensive regression, resulting in back-to-back 8-8 seasons in 2019 and 2020 and Trubisky’s eventual departure from the Bears last off-season, after the Bears declined to pick up his 5th year option.

Now in 2022, the Bears are in a similar situation as they were back in 2018.  Matt Eberflus is their new head coach, replacing Nagy, and Justin Fields, who the Bears selected in the 2021 NFL Draft to replace Trubisky, is now heading into his second season in the league, having shown some promise as a rookie. However, the Bears took a completely different approach this off-season, not only avoiding adding significant contracts, but also completing the teardown of their 2018 defense, which now has just two players remaining on this roster four years later.

The result is the Bears have the lowest average annual salary in the league by far, by over 25 million less than the 31st ranked Falcons, with an eye on having the most cap space in the league next off-season, which they currently do by a wide margin. Also lacking their first round pick, having given it up to move up for Fields a year ago, there wasn’t much the Bears could do to drastically improve this roster this off-season without spending money, so the result of their off-season strategy is a roster that looks significantly worse than it did a year ago, for a team that is clearly taking more of a long-term view, rather than trying to strike while the iron is hot.

The Bears were better than their 6-11 record suggested last season, they ranked 18th in overall efficiency, but had tied for the 2nd worst turnover margin in the league at -13. Efficiency tends to be much more predictive than turnover margins, but the Bears offense ranked just 22nd in efficiency last season, with their 13th ranked defense being a significantly better unit. Having lost significant talent on that side of the ball this off-season, their defense could easily decline significantly, leading to the Bears having below average play on both sides of the ball.

The Bears’ approach could easily prove to be the wrong one, as Fields won’t have much support around him in a crucial development and evaluatory year. He didn’t have a ton of support as a rookie either, leading to him completing just 58.9% of his passes for an average of 6.93 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, with 420 yards and 2 touchdowns on 72 carries (5.83 YPC), despite Fields actually playing decently for his part, finishing 28th out of 38 eligible quarterbacks on PFF in 10 rookie year starts. Year two is typically when we’d expect a statistical jump from a talented young quarterback, but Fields may find that hard to do given his supporting cast, even if he does progress as a player.

Veterans Andy Dalton and Nick Foles also made starts last season, with Dalton beginning the year as the starter while Fields was still learning the ropes and then taking over for Fields for a short stretch when he was injured, before Dalton suffered an injury of his own, forcing Foles into a start. Both are gone now, with mediocre veteran backup Trevor Siemian (81.2 QB rating in 29 career starts) replacing them as a free agent, which means that, for better or worse, this is Fields’ team in 2022.

Grade: C+

Receiving Corps

Wide receiver Allen Robinson was one of the big additions the Bears made before the 2018 season, giving Trubisky a #1 wide receiver on a 3-year, 42 million dollar deal, and he was also one of the veterans the Bears let go of this off-season, with Robinson signing with the Rams on a 3-year, 46.5 million dollar deal, after spending 2021 on the franchise tag in Chicago. Robinson looked like a shell of himself last season, with a 38/410/1 slash line in 12 games and a mediocre 1.13 yards per route run average, so it’s understandable why the Bears didn’t bring him back, but wide receiver was already a big position of weakness for this team last season and letting Robinson walk without a good replacement makes this group even worse.

Darnell Mooney had already supplanted Robinson as the #1 receiver, with the 2020 5th round pick showing great chemistry with Justin Fields and totaling a 81/1055/4 slash line with 1.72 yards per route run in his second season in the league in 2021, after showing promise in a more limited role as a rookie. Mooney needed 140 targets (11th in the NFL) to get those numbers, but he should have a big target share again in 2022, given their lack of other options, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him take another step forward in year three. The rest of this group behind Mooney is much more questionable though. 

Most of the Bears other wide receivers last season are no longer with the team, which isn’t really a bad thing, especially the departure of Damiere Byrd, who had just a 26/329/1 slash line with a 0.84 yards per route run average and finished 106th among 110 eligible wide receivers on PFF last season as the Bears’ de facto #3 wide receiver behind Mooney and Robinson last season. However, the Bears didn’t really find any upgrades for the mediocre veterans who departed this off-season, so this is still an underwhelming group.

Their biggest signing in free agency was Byron Pringle, who signed on a 1-year, 4.125 million dollar deal after posting a 42/568/5 slash line with 1.42 yards per route run as a member of the Chiefs last season. Those aren’t bad numbers, unless you take into account that he had the benefit of playing with Patrick Mahomes, something the 2018 undrafted free agent has had his entire career. Despite that benefit, Pringle has just a 1.43 yards per route run average for his career, with just 25 career catches prior to last season’s decent campaign. Already in his age 29 season, Pringle is unlikely to have any untapped upside, so he should be a middling starting option at best for them.

The Bears also used a 3rd round pick on wide receiver Velus Jones and, without a better option, he’s likely to start in 3-wide receiver sets as a rookie. He could easily prove overmatched in that role, especially since he was not overly productive as a receiver in college and is already in his age 25 season as a rookie. Jones should provide value for the Bears as a return man, but there’s a good chance he doesn’t pan out as a long-term starting wide receiver. The Bears’ only other options are mediocre veteran free agent acquisitions Tajae Sharpe (1.01 career yards per route run), Dante Pettis (1.34), and Equanimous St. Brown (1.09), as well as 2021 6th round pick Daz Newsome, who caught just 2 passes as a rookie. This is a very underwhelming group.

With all of their problems at wide receiver last season, tight end Cole Kmet finished 2nd on the team with 93 targets, but he didn’t do much with them, finishing with a 60/612/0 slash line and averaging just 1.23 yards per route run. This comes after a rookie season in which he averaged just 0.94 yards per route run in limited action. Kmet was a 2nd round pick and is still only in his age 23 season, so he still has upside and could easily take a step forward again in year three, when he’ll again have plenty of opportunity for targets, but he also could just remain a marginal starting tight end like he was last season.

Veterans Ryan Griffin and James O’Shaughnessy were signed in free agency to compete for the #2 tight end role, which is primarily a blocking role. Neither have shown much as a receiver (1.07 yards per route run and 1.10 yards per route run for their careers) and both are on the wrong side of 30, in their age 32 and age 30 seasons respectively, so they would both be a big liability if forced into a significant role in place of an injured Kmet, but they’re not terrible depth, especially given the limited roles they are expected to play. Shaughnessy is the better of the two as a blocker, but Griffin signed for more money (2.25 million vs. 1.125 million) and isn’t a terrible blocker either. Outside of #1 receiver Darnell Mooney, the Bears lack reliable pass catchers.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

The Bears also lost their best two offensive lineman from a year ago, left tackle Jason Peters and right guard James Daniels, without adequately replacing either of them this off-season. Peters is likely going to hang them up, rather than return to the NFL for his age 40 season, even though he was still PFF’s 21st ranked offensive tackle last season, while Daniels signed with the Steelers on a 3-year, 25 million dollar deal after ranking as PFF’s 20th best guard last season.

Peters wasn’t replaced at all, with the Bears instead turning the left tackle job over to 2021 2nd round pick Teven Jenkins. The Bears’ intention originally was to turn the left tackle job over to Jenkins immediately as a rookie, cutting long-time veteran left tackle Charles Leno right after drafting Jenkins, but Jenkins suffered a back injury in the off-season that cost him most of the season and necessitated the addition of the veteran Jason Peters, who played well enough to keep the job all season.

Peters was signed when Jenkins got hurt because the Bears didn’t want to have to turn to 2021 5th round pick Larry Borom at left tackle as a rookie, but expected right tackle Germain Ifedi missed most of the season as well, so Borom ended up in the starting lineup anyway. Borom wasn’t great, finishing slightly below average on PFF, but he played well enough that he also kept the job all season, with Jenkins being limited to just 160 snaps as Peters’ backup after returning from his back injury. 

Part of that is because Jenkins struggled behind the scenes and he continued that into his limited action, struggling mightily when on the field. Jenkins could easily be a lot better in year two, especially since he should be healthier, but it’s a big concern for a Bears team that doesn’t really have another starting tackle option other than making Jenkins and Borom. Borom was a 5th round pick a year ago and didn’t show a ton as a rookie, so both tackles could easily be a liability this season.

The Bears’ top reserve tackles are Julie’n Davenport and Shon Coleman, who have struggled in limited action in their careers, starting 32 games in five seasons in the league and 16 games in six seasons in the league respectively. The Bears also used a 5th round pick in this year’s draft on Braxton Jones from Southern Utah University, who is raw and likely would not make a positive impact as a rookie, but who has the tools to potentially develop into a useful player for them long-term.

At guard, Daniels will be replaced by free agent acquisition Lucas Patrick, who comes over from the Packers on a 2-year, 8 million dollar deal. Patrick was a capable starter in 2020, starting 15 games and finishing slightly above average on PFF, but he moved to center in 2021 and was not the same, finishing 33rd out of 41 eligible centers on PFF. He could bounce back now that he’s back at guard, but he’s still an unproven player, entering the league undrafted in 2016, making just six starts in his first four seasons in the league prior to his solid 2020 season, and only having one season as a solid starting guard on his resume. 

Even in a best case scenario, Patrick figures to be a noticeable dropoff from Daniels, who was a consistently above average starter for the Bears in four seasons since they drafted him in the 2nd round in 2018. That’s a problem for a team that already had a big weakness on the interior of their offensive line, with center Sam Mustipher needing to be upgraded. Instead, the Bears downgraded Daniels and locked Mustipher into the starting job again, without another good alternative. Mustipher was PFF’s 36th ranked center out of 41 eligible in his first full season as a starter in 2021, predictably struggling after going undrafted in 2019 and struggling in limited action in his first two seasons in the league. He figures to be a liability again in 2022.

Cody Whitehair remains the starter at left guard. A 2nd round pick by the Bears in 2016, Whitehair has never lived up to the 3rd ranked finish among centers that he had as a rookie, but he’s still been a consistently above average starter for the Bears over the past six seasons, starting 95 of a possible 97 games, while seeing action at both guard spots as well as center. He’s going into his age 30 season now, but has a good chance to remain at least a solid starter for at least another couple seasons. 

Whitehair and Patrick both have the versatility to kick inside to center to replace Mustipher, but the Bears don’t have another option at guard in that scenario, as their depth is suspect across the line and their top reserve interior lineman is Dakota Dozier, a 8-year veteran who has mostly been a reserve in his career and who has mostly struggled when forced into action, especially struggling in the only extended starting action of his career in 2020, finishing 87th out of 92 eligible guards on PFF as a 16-game starter for the Vikings. Now in his age 31 season, Dozier would almost definitely struggle if forced into significant action again. Even if injuries don’t strike, this is a very shaky offensive line and injuries would make this an even more ineffective unit.

Grade: C

Running Backs

David Montgomery returns as the Bears’ starting running back for the 4th straight season, a role he has had since joining the Bears as a 3rd round pick in 2019. Montgomery has just a 3.93 YPC average for his career (714 carries) and has been under 4 YPC in two of three seasons, but a lot of the problem has been his supporting cast, with 65.2% of his yardage coming after contact in those two seasons. Even in Montgomery’s one season above 1,000 yards rushing in 2020, it was Montgomery doing most of the work, with 72.8% of his 4.33 YPC coming after contact and 54 forced missed tackles, giving him the 6th highest elusive rating in the league, leading to him finishing 9th among running backs on PFF in overall grade. 

Montgomery had a 4.48 YPC average on 69 carries in four games last season before suffering an injury that cost him four weeks and probably limited him the rest of the season, so Montgomery has a good chance to bounce back at least close to his 2020 form if healthy and, having only missed one game with injury in his first two seasons in the league, there’s a good chance he stays relatively healthy for most of the season. He’ll still be held back by his supporting cast, but he should be more efficient than a year ago.

Khalil Herbert flashed potential in Montgomery’s absence last season, finishing his rookie season with a significantly better YPC average than Montgomery, averaging 4.20 YPC on 103 carries (67.2% after contact), despite being just a 6th round rookie. 78 of those carries came in the four games Montgomery missed, so he really didn’t have much of a role as a ball carrier when Montgomery was healthy, which will probably remain the case this season, but he could push to eat into Montgomery’s carries a little bit more and, with Montgomery going into the final year of his rookie deal, Herbert could be the Bears’ starting running back of the future in 2023 and beyond.

Herbert didn’t show much at all in the passing game, with 0.68 yards per route run averaged, so Montgomery figures to continue seeing the majority of the passing game work as well, even though his career 1.01 yards per route run average is also underwhelming. Montgomery finished 4th on the team with 51 targets last season and, with their receiving corps still very thin, he could once again have a big passing game role, even if he’s not a particularly efficient target. He’s not an elite running back, but he is one of the better runners in the league when he’s healthy and he has a good backup in Khalil Herbert, even if neither are a threat in the passing game.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

As I mentioned earlier, the Bears have just two players remaining from their dominant 2018 defense. They had been losing key players from that unit for years, but even last season they had seven key players from that defense left, with five of them being let go this off-season. Three of those players were interior defenders, with Eddie Goldman getting released and Akiem Hicks and Bilal Nichols signing with the Buccaneers and Raiders respectively as free agents. Goldman and Hicks were limited to 336 snaps and 304 snaps respectively last season and Goldman struggled mightily, so he isn’t a big loss, but Hicks still played at a pretty high level when healthy last season (9 games) and Nichols was a solid player across 679 snaps, earning a slightly above average grade from PFF.

Making matters worse, the Bears didn’t do much to replace them, aside from signing ex-Charger Justin Jones to a 2-year, 12 million dollar deal. A third round pick by the Chargers in 2018, Jones has played at a high level against the run on occasion, including a 11th ranked finish among interior defenders in run defense grade in 2020, but he hasn’t been played at that level consistently and hasn’t been much help at all as a pass rusher, with just 4.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 5.6% pressure rate in 51 games. Last season, Jones played 44.2 snaps per game and earned just a middling overall grade from PFF, even though he had a career high 3 sacks with a 6.3% pressure rate. The Bears shouldn’t expect much more out of him this season, even if he does have some bounce back potential, still only in his age 26 season.

Jones will likely start next to Angelo Blackson, who is probably locked into a starting role, even though he was originally brought to Chicago as a reserve and struggled mightily when forced into a career high 584 snaps last season as an injury replacement, finishing 98th out of 146 eligible interior defenders on PFF. Blackson still likely will play around that snap count in 2022, for lack of a better option, and he figures to struggle again, going into his age 30 season, having finished below average on PFF in 6 of 7 seasons in the league.

The Bears selected Khyiris Tonga in the 7th round in 2021 and he has a good chance to see a higher snap total in year two, after playing 217 snaps as a rookie, but the 6-4 321 pounder is just an early down run stopper and didn’t show much even in that aspect as a rookie. He might have some upside, but he could easily be overstretched in a larger role and is unlikely to ever give them anything as a pass rusher. Veteran Mario Edwards will also play a role as a reserve and the 6-3 280 pounder has a solid 8.1% pressure rate for his career, but he’s played an average of just 248 snaps per season and 17.7 snaps per game over the past 4 seasons and might struggle in a larger role, especially against the run. This is a very underwhelming position group.

Grade: C

Edge Defenders

The most notable loss on this Bears defense this off-season is Khalil Mack, whose acquisition prior to the 2018 season for a pair of first round picks was what jump started this defense and this team to the season they had that year. Now, with Mack being sent to the Chargers for a second round pick, it officially signals the end of that era and the start of a full rebuild. The Bears didn’t even get a first round pick for Mack because he’s going into his age 31 season and is coming off of an injury plagued season in which he played just 315 snaps, but, even coming off of that season, the Bears will still miss him. His direct replacement will be Al-Quadin Muhammad, who is obviously not the same caliber player. 

Muhammad signed on a 2-year, 8 million dollar contract as a free agent this off-season, coming over from the Colts, where his defensive coordinator for four seasons was new Bears head coach Matt Eberflus. A 6th round pick by the Saints in 2017, Muhammad has been a consistently solid run stopper throughout his career, but has never been much of a pass rusher, with just 11 sacks, 21 hits, and a 7.4% pressure rate in 64 games over the past four seasons. He’s coming off of the best pass rushing season of his career in 2021, but still had just 6 sacks, 8 hits, and a 8.1% pressure rate. He played an average of 569 snaps per season over the past four seasons and should be around there in 2022 with his new team.

One veteran player the Bears didn’t get rid of this off-season is Robert Quinn, surprising, considering he is going into his age 32 season and his value will almost definitely never be higher than it is right now, coming off of a 18.5-sack campaign a year ago, ranking 2nd in the league only behind Defensive Player of the Year TJ Watt, with contract that pays him a reasonable 39.9 million over the past three seasons, all of which is unguaranteed. Quinn wasn’t a member of the Bears’ 2018 defense, but, like most of the players from that defense that the Bears moved on from this off-season, he’s an aging veteran that doesn’t seem to fit the Bears’ timeline.

Quinn is going to have a hard time coming close to matching last year’s sack total and not just because he’s getting older. His peripheral pass rush stats last year (3 hits, 11.7% pressure rate) were not nearly as good as his sack total would suggest and he’s just a season removed from only having 2 sacks, 6 hits, and a 9.2% pressure rate in his first season with the Bears in 2020. He’s been a good pass rusher throughout most of his 11-year career, since being selected 14th overall by the Rams in 2011, totaling 101 sacks, 98 hits, and a 11.1% pressure rate in 156 games, but he’s mostly struggled against the run and his age is becoming a concern. He could easily see his sack total cut more than in half in 2022.

Trevis Gipson probably won’t start, but the 2020 6th round pick impressed in place of Mack last season and should at least have a heavy rotational role in 2022, especially in sub packages, given Muhammad’s issues as a pass rusher. Gipson finished as PFF’s 34th ranked edge defender last season across 489 snaps, totaling 7 sacks, 4 hits, and a 11.8% pressure rate as a pass rusher. He’s still unproven, only playing 72 snaps as a rookie prior to last season, but he could easily be a future starter and should be at least somewhat effective for them in a rotational role this season. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him surpass last season’s snap total, now in his 3rd year in the league.

Veteran Jeremiah Attaochu also figures to have a reserve role at the edge defender position, assuming he can stay healthy, which has been a big challenge for him in his career, missing 50 games in 8 seasons in the league, never once playing in all 16 games, and coming off of a 2021 season in which he played just 129 snaps in 5 games before a torn pectoral ended his season. Attaochu is somehow still only in his age 29 season and he’s been decently productive when on the field, with a career 10.3% pressure rate, but he’s only a reserve option even if healthy. With Mack gone and Quinn likely to regress, this group figures to be significantly worse than a year ago.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

Along with Akiem Hicks, Bilal Nichols, Eddie Goldman, and Khalil Mack, the other player from their 2018 defense that the Bears moved on from this off-season was Danny Trevathan. He only played 77 snaps in 5 games last season though, so the Bears had already been moving on from him and he won’t be missed. Roquan Smith, their other starting off ball linebacker in 2018 and one of the two players remaining from that defense, has since taken over as the top linebacker. The 8th overall pick in 2018, Smith struggles in run defense, but he has developed into one of the better coverage linebackers in the league, finishing 4th and 17th among off ball linebackers in coverage grade on PFF over the past two seasons respectively. 

Alec Ogletree struggled mightily as the other starter last season, finishing 93rd out of 94 eligible off ball linebackers on PFF across 697 snaps, but he’s no longer with the team and will likely be replaced free agent acquisition Nicholas Morrow, who the Bears signed from the Raiders on a 1-year, 3 million dollar deal. Morrow missed all of 2021 with injury, but he was PFF’s 29th ranked off ball linebacker on 723 snaps in 2020 and is still only in his age 27 season. He’s a one-year wonder, finishing below average on PFF in each of the first three seasons of his career prior to his solid 2020 season, and the injury doesn’t help matters, but it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade on Ogletree.

The Bears also have career reserve linebacker Joe Thomas, who has mostly struggled in his career and is now going into his age 31 season, coming off of a season in which he played just 86 snaps, and ex-Colt Matthew Adams, who played just 322 underwhelming snaps for Matt Eberflus as a reserve after being selected in the 7th round in 2018. Outside of Roquan Smith, this is an underwhelming group, but Smith is probably their best defensive player.

Grade: B-

Secondary

Along with Roquan Smith, the other remaining player from the Bears’ 2018 defense is safety Eddie Jackson, but even he’s fallen off significantly, ranking 49th, 67th, and 73rd among safeties on PFF in 2019, 2020, and 2021 respectively, after a dominant season in 2018 in which he was PFF’s #1 overall ranked safety. Jackson is still only in his age 28 season, but the 5-year veteran has proven to be a complete one-year wonder. He should remain at least a solid starter in 2022, but it’s unlikely he ever bounces back close to his 2018 form and he has seemingly gotten worse in each of the past three seasons.

In 2018, Jackson formed a dominant duo with Adrian Amos, who ranked 10th among safeties on PFF that season, but Amos signed with the Packers the following off-season. Amos was first replaced by HaHa Clinton-Dix and then by Tashaun Gipson, but the Bears are hoping they found a more permanent solution this off-season when they used a second round pick on Jaquan Brisker. Brisker could struggle as a rookie, but he has the potential to develop into an above average starter long-term. He’ll have to start in year one because their only other option is veteran career backup DeAndre Houston-Carson, who has started just three games in six seasons in the league. Houston-Carson has been good in limited action in his career, but would likely be overstretched if he had to start for an extended period of time.

The Bears also used a second round pick on cornerback Kyler Gordon, who has a good chance to start as a rookie and, even as a rookie, he could be an upgrade on Kindle Vildor (822 snaps) and Duke Shelley (409 snaps), who finished 124th and 113rd respectively out of 134 eligible cornerbacks on PFF last season. Vildor and Shelley were selected in the 5th round and 6th round respectively in 2020 and 2019 respectively and last season was the first extended action of either of their careers, so it’s likely both would continue to struggle if they had to start again in 2022, but the Bears also signed Tavon Young from the Ravens and are hoping he can start in three cornerback sets with Gordon and Jaylon Johnson.

Young has been a solid starter in his career, playing both inside and outside, but he also hasn’t been the most dependable player, missing all of 2017 and 2019 with injury and all but 2 games in 2020. He did play in all 17 games last season and he’s only going into his age 28 season, but there’s a good chance he misses more time with injury again in 2022, in which case Vildor or Shelley would likely be forced back into significant action, for lack of a better option.

Jaylon Johnson is the Bears’ de facto #1 cornerback, but he hasn’t played like one, at least not yet. The 2020 2nd round pick struggled as a rookie, finishing 91st out of 136 eligible cornerbacks on PFF, before having a more middling season in 2021. He has the upside to be an above average starter long-term and could easily take a step forward in his third season in the league, but he isn’t a true #1 cornerback and he’s not the kind of player who significantly elevates an underwhelming group.

Grade: B-

Special Teams

Special teams was a strength of the Bears’ in 2021, ranking 7th in special teams DVOA. They retain kicker Cairo Santos, and 7th round rookie punter Trenton Gill could be an upgrade on the underwhelming Pat O’Donnell. They don’t have Jakeem Grant anymore and he was their best returner last season, but rookies Velus Jones and Trestan Ebner had two touchdowns and four touchdowns respectively on special teams in their collegiate careers and both should have a role as returners, as could Khalil Herbert, who averaged 24.1 yards per kickoff return as a rookie last season and 26.9 yards per kickoff return in his final collegiate season in 2020.

The biggest concern is that the Bears lost a trio of special teamers this off-season who were arguably their best last season, Christian Jones, Marqui Christian, and Deon Bush, who all finished in the top-50 among special teamers on PFF last season, only adding one top-50 player (Matthew Adams) to replace them, instead relying on rookies to establish themselves as contributors in year one. The Bears probably won’t have a bad special teams unit this season, but it definitely wouldn’t be a surprise if they weren’t as good as a year ago, without three key players and with young players being relied on in a significant way.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Bears are going into a key year in the development and the evaluation process of Justin Fields, who they invested a pair of first round picks in, by virtue of their trade up to draft him 11th overall, but the Bears are giving Fields no help, opting to tear down and rebuild the roster around him long-term. It’s strange timing, as teams usually take advantage of having a quarterback on a cheap rookie deal and try to win right away, but maybe the Bears’ plan is to do that in 2023, having saved up a lot of cap space for next off-season. 

It’s also possible the Bears’ new regime doesn’t believe in Fields and has their eye on one of the quarterbacks atop a talented quarterback class in the 2023 NFL Draft. Either way, the short-term result is very likely to be a tough season in 2022, with the Bears looking like among the worst teams in the league, even if Justin Fields does take a step forward in year two. The Bears have the least invested in their active roster in terms of average annual salary by a wide margin and it shows when you look at this team. They might be lucky to win more than a few games. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Final Prediction: The Bears could be better than some expect if they get a big improvement from Justin Fields in year two, but even in that scenario, Fields would have his work cut out to win more than a few games with this roster. With one of the least expensive rosters in the NFL, the Bears are clearly planning for 2023 and beyond, leaving Fields in a tough situation in the meantime, in a critical second year of development.

Prediction: 4-13, 4th in NFC North

2022 NFL Mock Draft Final With Trades

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  1. Jacksonville Jaguars – DE Travon Walker (Georgia)
  2. Detroit Lions – DE Aidan Hutchinson (Michigan)
  3. Houston Texans – OT Ikem Ekwonu (NC State)
  4. New York Jets – CB Ahmad Gardner (Cincinnati)
  5. New Orleans Saints – QB Malik Willis (Liberty)
  6. Carolina Panthers – QB Kenny Pickett (Pittsburgh)
  7. New York Giants – OT Evan Neal (Alabama)
  8. Atlanta Falcons – DE Kayvon Thibodeaux (Oregon)
  9. Houston Texans – CB Derek Stingley (LSU)
  10. New York Jets – DE Jermaine Johnson (Florida State)
  11. Pittsburgh Steelers – QB Matt Corral (Mississippi)
  12. Kansas City Chiefs – WR Jameson Williams (Alabama)
  13. Seattle Seahawks – OT Charles Cross (Mississippi State)
  14. Green Bay Packers – WR Garrett Wilson (Ohio State)
  15. Philadelphia Eagles – WR Drake London (USC)
  16. New York Giants – S Kyle Hamilton (Notre Dame)
  17. Los Angeles Chargers – DT Jordan Davis (Georgia)
  18. Philadelphia Eagles – CB Trent McDuffie (Washington)
  19. New York Giants – DE George Karlaftis (Purdue)
  20. Washington Commanders – WR Chris Olave (Ohio State)
  21. New England Patriots – OT Trevor Penning (Northern Iowa)
  22. Baltimore Ravens – C Tyler Linderbaum (Iowa)
  23. Arizona Cardinals – G Kenyon Green (Texas A&M)
  24. Seattle Seahawks – QB Desmond Ridder (Cincinnati)
  25. Buffalo Bills – CB Andrew Booth (Clemson)
  26. Tennessee Titans – MLB Devin Lloyd (Utah)
  27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DT Devonte Wyatt (Georgia)
  28. Green Bay Packers – G Zion Johnson (Boston College)
  29. Minnesota Vikings – CB Kaiir Elam (Florida)
  30. Minnesota Vikings – DE Boye Mafe (Minnesota)
  31. Cincinnati Bengals – MLB Quay Walker (Georgia)
  32. Detroit Lions – OLB Nakobe Dean (Georgia)