Quarterback

For years, the Colts had consistent high level quarterback play. They selected Peyton Manning #1 overall in 1998 and he started every game through 2010, before a 2011 neck injury knocked him out for the year, tanking the Colts and allowing them to select Andrew Luck with the #1 overall pick in 2012, giving the Colts arguably the best quarterback prospect since Peyton Manning. Luck started every game in his first three seasons in the league and the Colts seemed set for the future. However, Luck then missed 26 games with injury over the next four seasons combined, leading to Luck’s early retirement following the 2018 season. 

Since then, the Colts have had one of the most in flux quarterback positions in the league. Backup Jacoby Brissett took over for Luck in 2019, but he was mediocre and was upgraded with Philip Rivers, who the Colts signed for the 2020 season. Rivers wasn’t bad and led the Colts to the playoffs, but they lost in the first round and Rivers retired after the season. That left the Colts to trade for Carson Wentz as a potential long-term quarterback option, but he was mediocre in his first season with the Colts in 2021 and ended up getting traded and replaced by another veteran Matt Ryan.

At first glance, the move to replace Wentz with Ryan seemed like a good one. The Colts received two third round picks from Washington in exchange for Wentz and only had to send one third rounder to the Falcons to acquire Ryan, a much more consistent option who actually had a cheaper salary. The one downside with Ryan was his age, which proved to be a big problem, as Ryan dropped off quickly in what was his age 37 season. Wentz didn’t have a better year with Washington so the Colts still made the right decision to move on from him, but Ryan struggled for most of the year and was benched on several occasions. In total, he completed 67.0% of his passes for an average of 6.63 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions, a 83.9 QB rating that was his lowest since his second season in the league in 2009.

As much as Ryan struggled, he was actually the Colts best quarterback option by far last season, as the quarterbacks he was benched for, Sam Ehlinger and Nick Foles, finished the year with QB ratings of 76.1 and 34.3 respectively and went 0-5 in their five starts, as opposed to 4-7-1 for Ryan. However, even with him being the best quarterback on their roster, the Colts couldn’t justify bringing back Matt Ryan at a 29.25 million dollar salary for 2023, cutting him this off-season to get out of the 17.25 million non-guaranteed portion of that salary. 

Foles was not retained this off-season, while Ehlinger is expected to be no higher than the third quarterback. The Colts’ disastrous 4-12-1 season last year got them the 4th overall pick, which they used on Florida’s Anthony Richardson to be their quarterback of the future, and they also signed veteran Gardner Minshew in free agency, who can either be a high end backup or a low end stopgap starter if Richardson isn’t ready to start at the beginning of the season.

There’s a good chance that Richardson not being ready to start week one proves to be the case. Richardson comes into the league with a massive upside, with a huge arm and unparalleled athletic ability for his size, but he was underwhelming in his lone season as a college starter and is incredibly raw, especially as a passer. Gardner Minshew, meanwhile, has been decent as a starter in his career, with a 93.1 QB rating in 24 starts in four seasons in the league, so it won’t be easy for Richardson to beat him out. Richardson will be given every chance to win the job and, even if Minshew wins the job for week one, he likely won’t keep it for long, but Richardson is more likely than not to struggle when he does eventually get into the starting lineup. Even if he develops into a high level quarterback long-term, there are likely to be a lot of growing pains in year one.

Grade: C+

Running Backs

In addition to poor quarterback play, part of the reason for the Colts’ disappointing 2022 season was injuries. They had the 7th fewest adjusted games lost to injury in the league, but those injuries seemed to disproportionately affect their most important players. On offense, the big injury was Jonathan Taylor, who was the best running back in the league in 2021, rushing for a leading league 1,811 yards and 18 touchdowns on 332 carries (5.45 YPC), but who was limited to just 4.48 YPC and 4 touchdowns on 192 carries last season in an injury plagued season in which he missed 6 games and was limited in several others.

Running backs suffer injuries more than any other position and it’s very uncommon for running backs to ever repeat the kind of season Taylor had in 2021, but the 2020 2nd round pick also rushed for 5.04 YPC and 11 touchdowns on 232 carries as a rookie and, only going into his age 24 season, he has a great chance to bounce back and be one of the best running backs in the league again in 2023, even if he’s unlikely to be as dominant as he was in 2021 again. In Taylor’s absence last season, Zack Moss and Deon Johnson were the Colts’ primary running backs, ranking 2nd and 3rd on the team with 76 carries and 68 carries respectively. Both players will return to the team for 2023 and Northwestern’s Evan Hull was added in the 5th round of the draft. 

Moss was the better of the two backs last season, averaging 4.80 YPC to Jackson’s 3.47, and by the end of the season he cemented himself as a true lead back, with 69 of his carries in the final four games of the season. Moss had never shown much in his career prior to being acquired by the Colts mid-season in a trade last season, averaging just 4.08 YPC on 225 carries in two and a half seasons in the league, but he was a 3rd round pick in 2020 and could remain at least a solid #2 running back option, especially if he only has to see a few carries per game behind a healthy Jonathan Taylor. 

Jackson was a much less effective runner, in the first action of the 2021 undrafted free agent’s career, but he did average 1.47 yards per route run, while Moss averaged 0.22 yards per route run and has just a 0.78 yards per route run average for his career, so he has a good chance to earn a role as a passing down back. Jonathan Taylor isn’t a great receiver, with a 1.05 yards per route run average for his career, so they’ll probably want to spell him on some passing down snaps to keep him fresh, which creates a role for Jackson. If he’s healthy, Taylor should be among the league leaders in carries and rushing yards and the Colts have decent depth options as well.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

The Colts’ offensive line used to be a strength of the team, with a starting five that was one of the best of the league and that stayed together for years. However, left tackle Anthony Castonzo retired after the 2020 season, while right guard Matt Glowinski left as a free agent following the 2021 season, leaving their offensive line in much worse shape for 2022. Rookie left tackle Bernhard Raimann was pretty solid in 11 starts in year one (73.3 PFF grade) and he has a good chance to keep that up in year two in 2023, but they really struggled to replace Glowinski last season.

Will Fries (9 starts) and Danny Pinter (3 starts) had PFF grades of just 58.4 and 44.7 respectively and their only even average starting right guard was Braden Smith, the talented right tackle who the Colts kicked inside for a couple starts. Smith is a versatile player, but he is more valuable at right tackle and his replacement at right tackle was Matt Pryor, who made 9 starts total last season and finished with a 44.9 PFF grade. The Colts also didn’t do anything to upgrade the right guard position this off-season, leaving Fries and Pinter in competition for the role, assuming Smith stays outside.

Fries and Pinter were drafted in the 7th round in 2021 and the 5th round in 2020 respectively and made 0 and 4 career starts respectively prior to last season, so it’s unlikely either one suddenly breaks out as even an average starter. The Colts did add BYU offensive tackle Blake Freeland in the 4th round of the draft and he could be an upgrade over Matt Pryor, who is no longer with the team, but he would likely struggle if forced into action at right tackle, in the case that Braden Smith moves back to guard. Smith has received grades of 73.3, 79.8, 80.1, 80.6, and 75.5 from PFF in the five seasons of his career respectively, since going in the 2nd round in 2018, and he’ll play at a high level regardless of where he plays, but he’s more valuable at right tackle. Regardless of where he plays, the Colts figure to continue having at least one hole in the starting lineup.

Another problem for the Colts on the offensive line last season was a substandard year from left guard Quenton Nelson. The 6th overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, Nelson immediately broke out as one of the best guards in the league, with PFF grades of 81.6, 91.2, and 87.5 in his first three seasons in the league, but that fell to 69.1 in an injury plagued 2021 season and didn’t improve in a healthier 2022, when he had a career worst 68.4 PFF grade. Nelson is only in his age 27 season and is theoretically still in the prime of his career, but he hasn’t shown his top form in two seasons and at this point it might be unrealistic to expect him to bounce all the way back in 2023. I would expect him to be better in 2023 than he was in 2021 and 2022, but not as good as he used to be.

Ryan Kelly also hasn’t shown his top form in a few seasons, as the 2016 first round pick surpassed a 70 grade on PFF in three of his first four seasons in the league, but has followed those grades up with 68.0, 56.9, and 64.3 over the past three seasons. Kelly now goes into his age 30 season and he’s pretty banged up in his career, missing 17 games in 7 seasons in the league, so it’s very likely his best days are behind him. 

Kelly should still remain at least a capable starter, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he continued declining further and he probably doesn’t have a huge upside at this stage of his career. This offensive line isn’t what it used to be and it will have at least one big position of weakness on the right side, but it’s not a bad offensive line either and they could be better than a year ago if they get a bounce back year from Nelson and if the young left tackle Raimann continues his above average play into year two.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

The Colts’ receiving corps was also a problem last season, although that was not a surprise, as their receiving corps were a problem the year before as well. Michael Pittman remained as the #1 receiver and the 2020 2nd round pick has posted slash lines of 88/1082/6 and 99/925/4 respectively in that role over the past two seasons, but those have come on target totals of 129 (16th in the NFL) and 141 (12th in the NFL). Quarterback play has been part of the problem and Pittman is a talented player who is still only going into his age 26 season, but he’s probably more of a high end #2 receiver than someone who is a true #1, as evidenced by his poor efficiency in that role over the past two seasons.

Unfortunately, Pittman will have to remain the #1 receiver for lack of a better option, with the Colts not doing anything to significantly improve this group this off-season. In fact, the Colts actually lost their #2 receiver from a year ago Parris Campbell, who was decent if unspectacular with a 63/623/3 slash line on 91 targets. The Colts won’t miss Campbell too much though, as they have 2022 2nd round pick Alec Pierce in line for a bigger role in year two and they also signed veteran Isaiah McKenzie and used a 3rd round pick on North Carolina’s Josh Downs to compete for the #3 receiver job.

Pierce was the #3 receiver last year (41/593/2 on 78 targets) and he was mediocre with a 1.24 yards per route run average, but he has the talent to be better in a bigger role in year two, although that’s not a guarantee. McKenzie, meanwhile, is a 6-year veteran who has mostly been a return man and a situational depth receiver (his 42/423/4 slash line last year was a career high), but he has a decent 1.31 yards per route run average over the past three seasons combined (0.99 over his first three seasons combined). The Colts are probably hoping the rookie Downs can beat the veteran McKenzie out for the 3rd receiver job, but Downs could be overmatched in year one and McKenzie figures to at least have somewhat of a role for this team even if he doesn’t end up beating out Downs.

The Colts also didn’t get much out of their tight ends last season. Mo Alie-Cox (584 snaps), Kylen Granson (407 snaps), and Jelani Woods (333 snaps) all saw action, but none were that productive, finishing with slash lines of 19/189/3, 31/302/0, and 25/312/3 respectively. The Colts didn’t add to this group this off-season, so they will be counting on getting more out of these three in 2023. Alie-Cox has never been much more than a blocking specialist, averaging a decent 1.32 yards per route run in limited passing game action, but not surpassing a 31/394/2 slash line in any of his six seasons in the league, and, now going into his age 30 season, it’s very unlikely he has any untapped potential, so I would expect more of the same from him in 2023, at best.

Granson was a 4th round pick in 2021, but he has averages of just 1.13 yards per route run and 1.31 yards per route run thus far in his career and, while he could have further untapped potential, he’s unlikely to ever break out as a starting caliber tight end. Woods has by far the most upside of the bunch, as the 2022 3rd round pick flashed a lot of potential with an impressive 1.51 yards per route run average as a rookie. 

Woods struggled as a blocker and will probably need to improve in that aspect to become a true starter for this team, but, at the very least, he should get more pass game opportunities in year two, after proving his upside in year one. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he had a mini breakout year in the first extended playing time of his career. He’s one of a couple promising young pass catchers the Colts have, but they’re still unlikely to be significantly better in the receiving corps than they were a year ago, meaning this is likely to remain a position of weakness overall.

Grade: B-

Interior Defenders

While the Colts’ offense was a huge problem in 2022, finishing dead last in offensive DVOA, their defense was actually not bad, ranking 14th in defensive DVOA. The strength of this defense was probably their interior defenders, led by arguably their best defensive player, DeForest Buckner. A first round pick in 2016, Buckner quickly developed into one of the best players in the league with the 49ers, posting grades of 71.6, 81.3, 79.3, and 78.8 in his first four seasons in the league respectively. 

Unable to keep all of their talented players long-term, the 49ers sent Buckner to the Colts for a first round pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. The Colts also gave Buckner a 4-year, 84 million dollar extension upon acquiring him, which makes him still the 5th highest paid interior defender in the league, so they paid a steep price for him in total, between the extension and the draft compensation that they sent to the 49ers, but it’s probably been worth it, as Buckner has continued his high level play with the Colts, posting grades of 89.7, 71.9, and 82.3 over the past three seasons respectively

Buckner is also still only in his age 29 season, so I wouldn’t expect any significant drop off yet. 

He isn’t bad against the run, but he’s at his best as a pass rusher, with 53 sacks, 95 hits, and a 10.0% pressure rate for his career, including 8 sacks, 14 hits, and a 10.8% pressure rate last season. He’s also remarkably durable, missing just two games in 7 years in the league, despite playing an average of 53.6 snaps per game as a true every down defensive lineman. I would expect more of the same from him in 2023. Their other starting interior defender Grover Stewart isn’t as good as Buckner, but he’s an above average starter in his own right. 

The 6-4 315 pound Stewart is at his best against the run, earning above average grades from PFF for his run defense in all six seasons in the league, but the 2017 4th round pick has developed into an every down player and a decent pass rusher as well, averaging 667 snaps per season over the past four seasons, while not missing a game due to injury and totaling 8.5 sacks, 13 hits, and a 5.7% pressure rate as a pass rusher over that stretch. Overall, he’s received grades from PFF of 65.8, 68.1, 72.6, and 69.0 respectively over those four seasons and, while he’s now going into his age 30 season and should start to decline soon, he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet and could easily remain a solid starter for at least another season. He’s an unspectacular player, but his run defense makes him a good complement to Buckner, who is a dominant pass rusher.

Depth isn’t as important to the Colts in this position group because Buckner and Stewart play every down and rarely get hurt, but the Colts still did well to improve their depth this off-season, after Eric Johnson (47.4 PFF grade in 127 snaps) and Byron Cowart (30.4 PFF grade in 229 snaps) struggled mightily in that role last season. Northwestern’s Adetomiwa Adebawore was added in the 4th round of the draft and, while he’s probably too raw to make a big impact as a rookie, it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade as a reserve. 

The Colts also added veteran Taven Bryan in free agency and, while he has been middling at best on an average of 447 snaps per season in five seasons in the league, he should be a good depth option for this team in a rotational role. Eric Johnson is also still on the roster and the 2022 5th round pick could be better in year two, but he won’t be guaranteed a role in what is a deeper position group than a year ago. This is a strong position group overall. 

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

The Colts leader in sacks a year ago was edge defender Yannick Ngakoue, who had 9.5, along with 11 quarterback hits and a 10.1% pressure rate. Ngakoue is no longer with the team, but, despite his production, he won’t really be missed, as Ngakoue struggled so much against the run last season that he actually ended up with a 51.4 PFF grade overall, despite his pass rush production. Ngakoue remains unsigned as of this writing, suggesting the rest of the league isn’t fooled by his sack total either.

Ngakoue’s replacement Samson Ebukam is an underwhelming player, but he’s a better all around player and it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over Ngakoue if he plays like he has the past two seasons, receiving PFF grades of 66.8 and 69.1 on snap counts of 554 and 559 respectively, while totaling 9.5 sacks, 13 hits, and a 10.7% pressure rate as a pass rusher over the two seasons combined. The 2017 4th round is an unspectacular option who has never finished with a PFF grade higher than last season’s 69.1 for a season, but he’s only once been below 63 for a season, so he’s a consistently decent option.

Ebukam might not play the 733 snaps in 15 games that Ngakoue played last season, but Ngakoue was overall a liability across those snaps and the Colts could get more out of the rest of their edge defenders, even if it’s the same group as a year ago. Kwity Paye is a third year player who could easily have the best year of his career if he can stay healthy. The 2021 1st round pick has been solid if unspectacular thus far through two seasons in his career, posting PFF grades of 69.6 in both seasons, but missing seven games between the two seasons. He still has the upside to be better going forward and, even if he isn’t, the Colts would still benefit from having him on the field more, after he was limited to 547 snaps in 12 games last season.

Dayo Odeyingbo is another third year player who could take a step forward in 2023. A second round pick who could have gone in the first if not for injuries, Odeyingbo didn’t play much in an injury plagued rookie season, seeing just 173 snaps, but that increased to 519 last season as he stayed healthy for all 17 games. Odeyingbo has been solid if unspectacular thus far in his career, posting grades of 61.4 and 62.6, but he has the potential to be better in his third season in the league in 2023, along with Paye.

The Colts also could get a healthier year out of reserve edge defender Tyquan Lewis, after he was limited to 273 snaps in 7 games last season, although based on his history of injuries, that’s not a guarantee, as Lewis has missed at least 7 games in 4 of 5 seasons in the league, missing 34 total. Lewis was a 2nd round pick back in 2018, but, in part due to injuries, he’s never developed into even a solid rotational player, posting grades higher than 60 on PFF in just two seasons in his career, with a 56.3 PFF grade in 2022. Even if he’s healthier in 2023, he’s unlikely to make a huge impact in a positive way. 

One thing Lewis does bring to the table is versatility, as the 6-3 277 pounder has the size to line up on the interior in obvious passing situations, but he’s an unspectacular player regardless of where he lines up. This isn’t a bad position group and they could easily be better than a year ago with Paye and Odeyingbo going into their third seasons in the league, with Ebukam replacing Ngakoue, and with Lewis possibly being healthier, but this group also lacks a high upside and doesn’t have any high end players.

Grade: B

Linebackers

The Colts had four defensive players play more than 500 snaps and finish with a grade higher than 70 on PFF last season and three of them left this off-season (DeForest Buckner is the exception), but, despite that, the Colts have a good chance to remain a decent defense in 2023. The biggest reason for that is the expected return of every down linebacker Shaq Leonard, who missed all but 74 mediocre snaps in an injury plagued 2022 season and whose return could offset the absence of other key players who departed this off-season.

That’s because Leonard is one of the best players in the league at his position when healthy, finishing 6th, 7th, 10th, and 7th among off ball linebackers on PFF in his first four seasons in the league prior to last season, while posting grades of 81.6, 78.7, 72.6, and 79.0 respectively. Leonard is coming off of a major injury, but he’s only going into his age 28 season, so he’s still theoretically in his prime and, if healthy, he has a great chance to bounce back at least close to his old form, which would be a huge boost for this defense.

Leonard’s return will be especially important to this defense because one of the key players the Colts lost this off-season was linebacker Bobby Okereke, who had a 73.3 PFF grade on 970 snaps in Leonard’s absence last season, before signing with the Giants this off-season. Okereke being gone means the Colts will continue giving a significant role to Zaire Franklin, even with Leonard back. Franklin actually led this position group with 1,136 snaps played last season, coming off the field on defense just five times all season, but he posted a mediocre 57.0 PFF grade in the first extended action of his career and the 2018 7th round pick is likely to be mediocre again in a significant role in 2023.

The Colts also could give a bigger role to EJ Speed this season, after re-signing him to a 2-year, 8 million dollar deal to keep him out of free agency this off-season. Speed was just a 5th round pick by the Colts in 2019 and he played just 181 snaps in his first three seasons in the league combined, but he played 316 snaps in 2022 and flashed a lot of potential, even if in very limited action, finishing with a 78.4 PFF grade. 

Speed is still unproven and a projection to a larger role and he probably wouldn’t be that efficient again if given more playing time, but his contract suggests the Colts at least expect him to have somewhat of a role, even as just the 3rd linebacker behind Leonard and Franklin. This is a strong group led by Shaq Leonard, who is one of the best off ball linebackers in the league when healthy and whose return should more than make up for the loss of Bobby Okereke, but the rest of this group is still uncertain, with Franklin being a mediocre option and Speed still being highly inexperienced.

Grade: A-

Secondary

One of the key players the Colts lost on defense this off-season is safety Rodney McLeod, who finished the 2022 season with a 80.1 PFF grade on 1,034 snaps. That performance kind of came out of nowhere though, as it was a career best grade for the 11-year veteran and, with McLeod now going into his age 33 season, it was understandable they moved on from him this off-season, but he’ll still be missed. Julian Blackmon and Rodney Thomas will likely be the two starting safeties in 2023 with McLeod gone and both saw significant action (720 snaps each) last season with the Colts frequently using three safeties in sub packages, but Blackmon was middling with a 62.3 PFF grade, while Thomas struggled with a 54.3 PFF grade, so it’s unlikely that either one is as good in 2023 as McLeod was in 2022.

Blackmon was a 3rd round pick in 2020 and has made 31 starts in three seasons in the league, but he’s been middling at best with PFF grades of 60.8, 60.7, and 62.3, and durability has been an issue for him, costing him 15 games in three seasons in the league. He theoretically has the upside to take a step forward in his 4th season in the league in 2023, but that’s far from a guarantee and he could easily miss more time with injury even if he does take a step forward. Thomas, meanwhile, was just a 7th round rookie in 2022, so his struggles were predictable and he could be better in year two, but that’s far from a guarantee and he could face competition for his job from fellow second year player, Nick Cross. 

Cross was a higher draft pick, selected in the third round, and could have more upside than Thomas long-term as a result, but he played just 122 underwhelming snaps as a rookie, spending most of the year behind the much lower drafted Thomas on the depth chart, so he’s far from a guarantee to be an upgrade even if he does win the starting job. The Colts also added California’s Daniel Scott in the 5th round of this year’s draft, but he will almost definitely spend his rookie year as a reserve barring significant injuries ahead of him on the depth chart.

Stephon Gilmore is also a big loss from this defense in 2022, as he finished the year with a 79.1 PFF grade on 1,064 snaps as the Colts’ top cornerback. Gilmore was owed 10 million for his age 33 season in 2023, so it made sense for the Colts, who are in something of a rebuild, to move on from him this off-season, but they only got a 5th round pick from the Cowboys in return for him and they will definitely miss him in the short-term. 

In Gilmore’s absence, the Colts will hope that 2020 6th round pick Isaiah Rodgers can continue his impressive play in limited action from the past two seasons into an every down starting role, after earning a 70.7 PFF grade on 525 snaps in 2021 and a 82.1 PFF grade on 434 snaps in 2022. He’s a projection to that larger role and probably won’t be as efficient as an every down player as he was as a part-time player, but he could still easily be an above average starting option for them. The Colts also added Kansas State’s Julius Brents in the second round of the draft to help them replace Gilmore and he figures to have a significant role in year one, at least playing in sub packages with Rodgers and veteran Kenny Moore. 

Moore used to be an above average starter, earning PFF grades of 71.3, 75.5, and 74.8 on 911 snaps, 631 snaps, and 952 snaps in 2018, 2019, and 2020 respectively. However, he’s fallen off in a big way with grades of 66.6 and 55.7 respectively on snap counts of 1,062 and 774 over the past two seasons. He’s only going into his age 29 season, so he isn’t totally over the hill, but after two down years, it’s likely his best days are behind him at this point. That doesn’t mean he can’t be better in 2023 than he was in 2022, which was a career worst year, in part due to injuries, but he is unlikely to be more than an average starter in 2023. This secondary isn’t bad, but it will be very hard for them to be as good as a year ago without Stephon Gilmore and Rodney McLeod.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

By default, the Colts should be better on offense this year than they were a year ago, but they still have a lot of problems on that side of the ball and they will be quarterbacked by the very raw Anthony Richardson. Meanwhile, their defense lost a few key players in free agency this off-season and, while Shaq Leonard is expected back from injury, they are pretty top heavy on defense behind Leonard and Buckner and would be in trouble on that side of the ball if they lost either one to injury for an extended period of time. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 6-11, 3rd in AFC South