Month: June 2023

Jacksonville Jaguars 2023 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews, Jaguars

Quarterback

Midway through the 2022 season, the Jaguars sat at just 2-6 and, at first glance, it seemed like more of the same for a team that had received back-to-back #1 overall picks following 1-15 and 3-14 finishes in the prior two seasons. However, the Jaguars played better than their record suggested to start the season, with all of their losses coming by 8 points or fewer and their two wins coming by a combined 52 points, giving them a +14 point differential and a DVOA that ranked 16th in the NFL, suggesting they would have significantly more success in the win/loss column going forward.

Sure enough, that’s exactly what happened for the Jaguars and then some, as they went 7-2 the rest of the way, winning their final five regular season games, to give them a final record of 9-8, good enough for first place in the AFC South. Part of it is the Jaguars started playing better, but their final DVOA rank, 13th, wasn’t much better than where they were when they were 2-6. The bigger difference is they started winning close games, going 4-0 in one-score games down the stretch after starting 0-6. 

It’s easy to say the Jaguars are a young team that has turned a corner and will continue winning games at the rate they did in the second half last season, but that’s unlikely for two reasons. One, that would likely require them continuing to win an unsustainably high percentage of their close games; just like their 0-6 record in one-score games to start last season was unlikely to continue, the same is true of their 4-0 record in one-score games down the stretch. Two, the Jaguars are unlikely to continue having as few injuries as they had last season, when they finished with the second fewest adjusted games lost to injury in the league. 

Working in the Jaguars favor, however, is the fact that young quarterback Trevor Lawrence legitimately did seem to turn a corner midway through last season. The #1 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, billed as a can’t miss prospect and one of the best prospects of the decade, Lawrence struggled mightily as a rookie, in part due to coaching, completing just 59.6% of his passes for an average of 6.05 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions. 

He was better to start the 2022 season, but his production was still mediocre, completing 62.5% of his passes for an average of 6.64 YPA, 10 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions through the first 8 games of last season. However, over the final 9 games of the season, that jumped to 69.7% completion, 7.40 YPA, 17 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. That led to Lawrence finishing 13th among quarterbacks on PFF with a 77.4 grade, including a 90.3 grade from week 9 on, making him the 3rd highest ranked quarterback over that stretch. 

It’s a small sample size and Lawrence might not be quite that effective in 2023, but he has all the talent in the world and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he continued playing like one of the better quarterbacks in the league for years to come. Even if he doesn’t play as well this season as he did down the stretch last season, he should still have a better season overall than a year ago because he’s unlikely to struggle again to begin the season.

The Jaguars also have a decent backup quarterback in CJ Beathard, who has completed 58.8% of his passes for an average of 6.94 YPA, 18 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions (80.3 QB rating) in 12 career starts in six seasons in the league. The Jaguars would obviously be in trouble if Beathard had to start for an extended period of time because he’s a clear downgrade from Lawrence, but he’s good enough that he can make a couple spot starts without the season getting away from the Jaguars.

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

Another reason to be optimistic about the Jaguars in 2023, even if they don’t win games at the same rate as they did down the stretch last season, is the return of wide receiver Calvin Ridley from suspension. The Jaguars didn’t have a lot of financial flexibility this off-season after spending sprees during the previous two free agencies, but they didn’t have a lot of off-season losses either and they will get an obvious upgrade with Ridley returning to replace free agent departure Marvin Jones. While Jones averaged just 1.12 yards per route run and is more of a #3 receiver, Ridley has the potential to be a true #1 wide receiver for this team. 

Whether Ridley meets that potential or not remains to be seen though. Ridley is only in his age 29 season and the 90/1374/9 slash line he had in 2020 seems like a #1 receiver, but he did that in Atlanta opposite a true #1 wide receiver in Julio Jones, rarely if ever facing any double coverage as a result, and that remains the only 1000+ yard season of his career. Ridley got the chance to be the #1 in Jones’ absence in 2021, but was limited to a 31/281/2 slash line in five games before missing the rest of the season for personal reasons and he then missed all of 2022 with suspension, leading to the Falcons sending him to Jacksonville. 

Even if Ridley is not a true #1 wide receiver, he should still make a positive impact for the Jaguars and he won’t need to be a true #1, with the Jaguars also having Christian Kirk, who had a 84/1108/8 slash line as the #1 receiver a year ago. It was the first 1000+ yard year of Kirk’s career, but he came close with a 77/982/5 slash line in his final year in Arizona in 2021 and actually averaged more yards per route run (1.81) that season than he did in his first season in Jacksonville in 2022 (1.79).

Kirk also had a similar PFF grade in 2021 (72.7) as he did in 2022 (74.2) and he’s still in the prime of his career in his age 27 season, so could easily continue playing around the same level. He might not receive as many targets as he did last season (133) with Ridley in town, but he should be more efficient with Ridley taking some coverage away from him and Trevor Lawrence likely to play better overall this season than he did a year ago.

Ridley’s addition will likely affect Zay Jones the most negatively from a statistical perspective. Jones received almost as many targets a year ago as Kirk (121), but was not nearly as efficient with them, finishing with a 82/823/5 slash line and a 67.3 PFF grade, not a big surprise for a player whose career best slash line in 5 years in the league prior to last season was 56/652/7 and whose career best PFF grade is 70.2. 

Jones will be the clear third receiver in 2023 behind Ridley and Kirk and, as a result, is highly unlikely to have anywhere near the same target share, with the 81 targets that Marvin Jones had last season being a much more realistic estimate for Jones in 2023 than his 2022 total. He’s an above average third receiver in a talented position group and should be more efficient than he was a year ago in a smaller role, but he probably won’t see anywhere near the same level of total production as he had a year ago.

Tight end Evan Engram was also a big part of this passing game last season, posting a 73/766/4 slash line on 98 targets. Engram might not see as many targets in 2023 with Ridley being added, but, even if does, there’s a good chance he’s not as efficient or as productive as he was in 2022. Engram was a first round pick in 2017 and averaged a 69/740/4 slash line per 17 games in his first five seasons in the league with the Giants, but he missed 16 total games with injury, only playing every game once, and was not that efficient, averaging just 6.59 yards per target, as opposed to 7.82 in his first season in Jacksonville. 

Engram is only in his age 29 season and it’s possible he could keep that level of play up, but it’s more likely that he regresses or gets hurt again. The Jaguars also seem suspicious of his ability to keep up that level of play, franchise tagging him for 11.345 million in 2023, but declining to give him a top of the market long-term extension, at least as of this writing, and then using a second round pick on Penn State’s Brenton Strange as a potential long-term replacement, with Engram not signed in 2024 and beyond. 

Depth wasn’t really needed much in the Jaguars’ receiving corps last season with their top-3 wide receivers and their top-2 tight ends all playing at least 16 games, but depth will almost definitely be more important this season, as it’s unlikely the Jaguars’ receiving corps will have the same health as a year ago. Jamal Agnew and Tim Jones return as their top reserve wide receivers, after playing just 139 snaps and 145 snaps respectively last season, and one or both of them are likely to have to see more playing time than that in 2023. 

Jones is a 2021 undrafted free agent who showed very little in the first action of his career in 2022, averaging just 0.51 yards per route run, while Agnew is a career special teamer who has never played more than 260 snaps on offense in six seasons in the league, so both would be very underwhelming options if forced into extended action by injuries ahead of them on the depth chart, which is a strong possibility, given that it’s uncommon for a team’s top-3 wide receivers to all stay healthy for the entire season.

At tight end, Strange should be an upgrade in the passing game over blocking specialist Chris Manhertz (6 catches in 2022) as the #2 tight end and he will be a much better option than Manhertz would have been if he has to start in Engram’s absence, but Strange also might not be as good of a blocker in year one as Manhertz was either. It’s possible the Jaguars could use 2021 5th round pick Luke Farrell more as a blocking specialist, but he has played just 352 offensive snaps thus far in his career and would be a projection to a larger role, even as just a blocking specialist. The Jaguars have a very talented starting receiving corps, with Calvin Ridley returning from suspension to upgrade the one weak spot from a year ago, but depth is a concern in the likely scenario that the Jaguars have more injuries in this group than a year ago.

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

While the Jaguars’ offensive personnel in general are similar to a year ago, the group that will be the most different is their offensive line. That’s especially true at the tackle position where incumbent right tackle Jawaan Taylor left in free agency and incumbent left tackle Cam Robinson is facing a significant suspension to start the season after a failed drug test. Taylor and Robinson finished with PFF grades of just 58.7 and 67.2 respectively last season though, so they won’t be too hard to replace, especially since the Jaguars have obvious replacement options.

One of those options is Walker Little, who has made just 6 starts in two seasons in the league, but who has flashed potential in limited action and who was originally drafted to be a starter long-term when he was a second round pick in 2021. He should be at least a capable starter in his first season in that role and he has the upside to be more than that, in which case he would likely be an upgrade over Robinson and Taylor. The Jaguars also used their first round pick on Oklahoma’s Anton Harrison. Harrison and Little will start at the beginning of the season with Robinson out and the better of the two will likely wind up at right tackle opposite Robinson when he returns.

There’s also a possibility that both players play too well in Robinson’s absence to be benched, in which case the Jaguars might opt to keep Robinson on the bench upon his return. Robinson is an experienced starter, starting all 75 games he has played since entering the league as a second round pick in 2017, and after some early career struggles, Robinson has had three straight seasons of PFF grades in the 60s, but he’s never had a PFF grade higher than 67.4 for a season and it wouldn’t be too hard for Harrison and/or Little to be an upgrade. Even if Robinson keeps his job upon his return, it’s very likely that this is his last season in Jacksonville, with a 17.75 million dollar non-guaranteed salary for 2024 and comparable in-house replacements who are much cheaper.

On the interior of this offensive line, the biggest difference is the Jaguars should get a healthier season out of left guard Ben Bartch, who was limited to just 293 snaps in 5 games last season. Bartch isn’t a great player or anything, but the 2020 4th round pick had a 62.1 PFF grade in 11 starts in 2021, after taking over as the starter in week 5, and then had a 60.5 PFF grade in 5 starts last season before getting hurt, so he should get his starting job back upon his return. Veteran Tyler Shatley wasn’t bad in Bartch’s absence last season and has been a solid interior reserve for them for years, but he’s going into his age 32 season in 2023, he has just 45 career starts in 9 seasons in the league, and his career best PFF grade was 67.7 in 10 starts in 2020, so he would be best back in a reserve role.

It’s also possible Shatley could push for the starting job at center, although the Jaguars would probably prefer second year player Luke Fortner keeps the job, even after he was PFF’s 40th ranked center out of 42 eligible last season with a 49.6 grade in 17 starts. He could be better in year two and, while he would have to improve drastically to even become a solid starter, if that doesn’t happen, the Jaguars do have Shatley as an option if they want to bench Fortner and turn to the more reliable veteran.

Brandon Scherff remains at right guard. He was a big free agent signing last off-season, coming over from Washington on a 3-year, 49.5 million dollar deal that makes him the 4th highest paid guard in the league in average annual salary. Scherff was one of the best guards in the league in his first seven seasons in the league with Washington, posting a 72.5 PFF grade in every season, but he came with some risk as a signing for a couple reasons. For one, he was getting up there in age, with 2022 being his age 31 season, and he had a pretty significant injury history, missing 24 games over his final five seasons in Washington combined.

Injuries proved not to be a concern for Scherff his first season in Jacksonville, as he played every game for the first time since his second season in the league in 2016. However, age did prove to be a concern as Scherff’s play dropped off dramatically, leading to him finishing with just a 59.0 PFF grade. Now going into his age 32 season, Scherff’s best days are almost definitely behind him and, even if he could be better in 2023 than he was in a career worst 2022 season, it’s also possible that he has permanently declined and could continue to struggle. He also still has durability concerns, given his history. Without any elite players, this offensive line is underwhelming, but they’re not a bad group either.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

Travis Etienne returns as the feature back. He actually started last season behind James Robinson, who had 90 touches to Etienne’s 67 in the Jaguars’ first six games of the season last year, in part because Etienne was working back from an injury that cost him his entire rookie season in 2021. However, Etienne showed why he was a first round pick originally in those six games, averaging 5.57 YPC on 54 carries and adding 146 yards on 13 catches, leading to Robinson being benched and then traded to the Jets, which led to Etienne becoming the featured back for the rest of the season. 

Etienne wasn’t quite as efficient as he was when he was splitting carries, but he still had a 4.96 YPC on 166 carries and 22 catches for 170 yards in his final 11 games after Robinson got benched and traded and he finished the season with a 72.1 PFF grade. He might not see quite as much action per game in 2023 as he did down the stretch in 2022 though, as the Jaguars put an emphasis on improving their running back depth back behind Etienne this off-season, signing D’Ernest Johnson from the Browns and drafting Auburn’s Tank Bigsby in the 3rd round to give them other backup options besides JaMycal Hasty, who averaged 4.22 YPC on 46 carries as Etienne’s backup last season after Robinson’s departure and who has a 4.06 YPC average on 101 carries in three seasons in the league since going undrafted in 2020. 

D’Ernest Johnson isn’t that much more experienced than Hasty, buried on the depth chart in Cleveland behind probably the best running back duo in the league in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, but Johnson does have an impressive 5.23 YPC average on 141 carries in five seasons since going undrafted in 2018 and could easily see more playing time in Jacksonville than he did in Cleveland. Bigsby was a third round pick and could be a starting caliber player long-term, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Johnson beat him out for the #2 job. Etienne still figures to be the featured back, but he might not see quite as many touches per game as he did after he became the feature back last season (17.1 per game), with better reserves options behind him on the depth chart.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

While there were some changes on the Jaguars’ offense this off-season, mostly for the best, the Jaguars’ defense had remarkably little turnover from last year, bringing back all 10 players who played at least 500 snaps and 12 of 14 players who played at least 400 snaps. That might not be a good thing though as, unlike on offense where they finished 9th in DVOA, their defense finished 26th. On top of that, the Jaguars didn’t make any major additions to this group this off-season and they probably will have worse injury luck than a year ago, so they figure to be a below average group on this side of the ball again this season.

The two players the Jaguars did lose this off-season were reserve edge defenders Arden Key and Dawuane Smoot. They only played 475 snaps and 445 snaps respectively last season, but both played pretty well in a reserve role, earning grades of 81.3 and 70.3 respectively from PFF while combining for 9.5 sacks, 18 hits, and a 12.9% pressure rate. The Jaguars also didn’t really do anything to replace them, aside from using a 5th round pick on Louisville’s Yasir Adbullah, so they will be relying on inexperienced young holdovers K’Lavon Chaisson and Jordan Smith, as well as Adbullah, as rotational reserve options. 

Chaisson is actually a former first round pick, but he’s never had a grade of 60 or higher on PFF in three seasons in the league and has seen declining snap counts in every season, from 569 as a rookie to 384 in 2021 and just 109 last season. Chaisson is still only 24 and could have untapped potential, but counting on him as your top reserve option is tough and it’s probably something the Jaguars are doing out of necessity rather than true faith in Chaisson, who they barely gave any playing time last season. He’s their top reserve by default over the rookie Abdullah and Jordan Smith, who has played just 21 snaps in two seasons in the league.

The Jaguars do still have starters Josh Allen and Travon Walker, a pair of former first round picks in their own right. Allen was the 7th pick in 2019 and has so far lived up to the billing, breaking out with a 78.5 PFF grade in his third season in the league in 2021, after middling seasons to begin his career, and then he followed them up with an even better season in 2022, ranking 14th among edge defenders on PFF with a 82.9 grade on 895 snaps and totaling 7 sacks, 17 hits, and a 14.1% pressure rate on the season. Allen has always been a good pass rusher, with 27.5 sacks, 49 hits, and a 12.1% pressure rate in 57 career games, and his run defense has improved significantly throughout his career, allowing him to become one of the more complete players in the league at his position. Only going into his age 26 season, he should continue his high level of play for several seasons.

Travon Walker, meanwhile, was the first overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. That draft was considered one of the weakest in recent memory at the top and Walker was considered a project entering the league, but his rookie year still had to be somewhat disappointing. He played 788 snaps as close to an every down starter, but he managed just 3.5 sacks, 6 hits, and a 8.6% pressure rate, while earning just a 60.3 grade from PFF. He still has a sky high upside though and could easily take a big step forward in year two. The Jaguars will need that to compensate for their lack of depth. If Walker does not improve significantly, Josh Allen is the only reliable outside pass rusher the Jaguars have.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

At the interior defender position, the Jaguars top-4 players in terms of snaps played last season were Roy Robertson-Harris (714 snaps), Davon Hamilton (610 snaps), Folorunso Fatukasi (446 snaps), and Adam Gotsis (293 snaps) and all four return for this season and should play similar roles. Hamilton was the best of the bunch, finishing with a 74.9 grade on PFF, a breakout season for the 2020 3rd round pick, who had previously received PFF grades of just 53.9 and 52.8 on 408 snaps and 443 snaps in his first two seasons in the league respectively. Hamilton is a one-year wonder who could regress a little this season, but he’s only in his early prime in his age 26 season and could easily remain an above average starter in 2023 and beyond. Originally going into the final year of his rookie contract this season, the Jaguars extended him on a 3-year, 34.5 million dollar deal this off-season.

Robertson-Harris also got an extension this off-season, re-signing for 21.6 million over 3 years ahead of what would have been the final year of his contract as well. He wasn’t as good as Hamilton last season, but he’s a good value on that contract. He’s always been a good pass rusher, with a 9.1% pressure rate for his career, but he’s gotten better as a run defender as well, allowing him to play an every down role like he did in 2023, when he played a career high in snaps and held up with an overall 63.9 PFF grade. Robertson-Harris is still better as a pass rusher than a run stopper, with 3 sacks, 8 hits, and a 8.2% pressure rate last season, but he’s a capable overall player and should remain that in 2023, even if he’s starting to get up there in age in his age 30 season.

Adam Gotsis was also solid with a 65.6 PFF grade last season, albeit in very limited action. He’s an experienced 7-year veteran who has been middling on an average of 411 snaps per season in his career, but now he’s heading into his age 31 season and he could easily become an increasingly less reliable reserve option. The Jaguars won’t need much from him this season barring injuries ahead of him on the depth chart, but he could still prove to be a liability. He could also be pushed for his role by 4th round rookie Tyler Lacy, who figures to start the season as a deep reserve, but who could earn playing time as the year goes on. 

The only one of this group who truly struggled last season was Fatukasi, who was a big disappointment in the first year of a 3-year, 30 million dollar contract that he signed to come over from the Jets last off-season, posting a 44.5 PFF grade in his first season in Jacksonville, good for 123rd out of 142 eligible interior defenders. Fatukasi was a dominant run stuffer early in his career, with PFF grades of 87.6 and 86.2 against the run in 2019 and 2020 respectively as a part-time player (390 snaps and 507 snaps), but that fell to 57.3 in his final season in New York in 2021 (558 snaps) and then fell even further to 41.4 in 2022. 

The big 6-4 318 pounder has never been much of a pass rusher with a career 5.5% pressure rate, so the sudden drop off of his run stopping abilities is a significant concern. Fatukasi probably won’t be as bad in 2023 as he was in 2022, but now two years removed from his last above average season, it’s possible he won’t regain his old form, even though he’s theoretically in his prime in his age 28 season. He’ll have to bounce back in a pretty big way to justify remaining on the roster in 2024, owed a non-guaranteed 8 million. He’s part of a decent, but underwhelming position group on the interior.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

The Jaguars overhauled their linebacking corps last off-season, using a first round pick on Devin Lloyd and signing ex-Falcon Foyesade Oluokun to a 3-year, 45 million dollar deal that makes him the 6th highest paid off ball linebacker in the league. Neither player really lived up to the resources the team committed to them in year one though. Lloyd was a solid run defender, but led all linebackers with 722 receiving yards allowed in coverage and finished with an overall 48.3 grade from PFF, due to his struggles in coverage. Lloyd has the potential to be a lot better in year two, but that’s not a guarantee.

Oluokun, on the other hand, wasn’t bad last season, playing 1,145 snaps (all but 18) and receiving a 69.6 PFF grade, 31st among off ball linebackers, but it’s hard to say he was worth how much the Jaguars paid to sign him. That contract came as a big surprise as Oluokun had never been more than a solid linebacker in four seasons in Atlanta, making 41 starts and averaging 720 snaps per season, but never finishing above 65.7 in PFF grade, meaning last season was actually a career best PFF for Oluokun. Oluokun is in the prime of his career in his age 28 season and could easily remain a slightly above average every down linebacker in 2023, but I don’t expect him to ever live up to his contract.

The Jaguars also added Chad Muma in the third round of last year’s draft and he played 286 middling snaps behind Oluokun and Lloyd. He’s expected to play the same role in 2023 and he’s a solid backup option to have, as he has the upside to be a starter long-term and could potentially fill in capably as an every down player if there’s an injury ahead of him on the depth chart. Oluokun is a solid every down player and Muma and Lloyd both have potential, even if they haven’t shown themselves to be reliable every down options yet, but, overall, this is a middling at best linebacking corps.

Grade: B-

Secondary

The one major injury the Jaguars had on defense last season was losing starting cornerback Shaq Griffin for the season after 336 snaps in 5 games. Griffin was let go this off-season to save 13.5 million and the Jaguars didn’t really replace him, which is surprising, as his replacement Tre Herndon struggled in his absence with a 55.4 PFF grade on 416 snaps and is their only realistic candidate to replace him. Herndon hasn’t been any better in the past either, as his mediocre PFF grade last season was actually a career best. He’ll almost definitely be no worse than their 3rd cornerback this season, with their only other options for the job being veteran journeyman Tevaughn Campbell, who is going into his age 30 season with a career best PFF grade for a season of 56.9, 2020 7th round pick Chris Claybrooks, who has struggled on 621 career snaps, and 6th round rookie Christian Braswell. 

Tyson Campbell and Darious Williams remain locked in as the starting every down cornerbacks in base packages, with the former being one of the best players in the league at his position. A second round pick in 2021, Campbell struggled to begin his career, with a 52.8 PFF grade through 8 games, but that improved to 72.3 from week 12 on and he continued improving into his second season in the league, finishing as PFF’s 5th ranked cornerback with a 82.1 grade. Campbell is inexperienced and a one-year wonder, but he’s still only going into his age 23 season and has the upside to develop into one of the consistently best players in the league at his position for years to come.

Darious Williams, meanwhile, was a free agent acquisition last off-season, coming over from the Rams on a 3-year, 30 million dollar deal. Williams has been a starter for three seasons dating back to his time with the Rams (35 starts), but he hasn’t been able to repeat the level of play he reached in 2020, when he received a 80.0 PFF grade on 824 snaps, following up that season with PFF grades of 65.3 and 61.4 over the past two seasons on snap counts of 924 and 944 respectively. Now going into his age 30 season with only one above average season on his resume, it’s unlikely he’ll ever bounce back to that level of play, but he has a good chance to remain at least a capable starter in 2023, even if he is starting to get up there in age.

Starting safeties Rayshawn Jenkins and Andre Cisco both remain as well. Jenkins signed with the Jaguars on a 4-year, 35 contract two off-season ago and has started 31 games for the Jaguars in two seasons since, but he’s struggled overall with PFF grades of 56.9 and 57.3, failing to live up to the level he played at in his final two seasons with the Chargers, when he had PFF grades of 63.1 and 68.9 while starting another 31 games. The Jaguars restructured Jenkins contract this off-season, freeing up cap space, but making it more difficult to cut him long-term, so they clearly still believe in him and he’s still only going into his age 29 season, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he struggled again in 2023.

Cisco was the better of the two safeties, with a 67.1 PFF grade in 15 starts. A third round pick in 2021, Cisco flashed potential on 247 snaps as a rookie, so it wasn’t really a surprise he continued his solid play in a larger role. Still only in his age 23 season, Cisco could easily still have further untapped potential and, even if he doesn’t take a step forward in year three, I would expect him to continue being at least a solid starter. The Jaguars also have a good reserve safety in veteran Andrew Wingard, who has made 22 starts of his own over the past three seasons, with PFF grades of 68.8, 69.0, and 79.9 respectively, making him a very valuable backup option to have. Overall, this is a solid secondary, but Tre Herndon figures to be a liability as the #3 cornerback and Rayshawn Jenkins could continue struggling as a starting safety.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Jaguars are a young team who won 7 of their last 9 games last season to surprisingly finish in first place in their division and this season they’ll get talented receiver Calvin Ridley back from suspension, so some have high expectations for this team in 2023. However, there are reasons to expect them to not keep winning games at the rate in which they won games down the stretch last season. For one, while they were never as bad as their 2-6 record suggested, with a 0-6 record in one-score games and a +14 point differential during that stretch, they were also never as good as their 7-2 record suggested, with a +40 point differential and a 4-0 record in one-score games during that stretch. On top of that, the Jaguars are highly unlikely to be as healthy as they were a year ago, when they finished with the second fewest adjusted games lost to injury.

I would still expect the Jaguars to be better overall in 2023 than they were in 2022, with several young players legitimately seeming to turn a corner down the stretch last season, most notably quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who looks like one of the most promising young quarterbacks in the league and now has a new wide receiver to throw to. However, I would pump the brakes on this team doing anything more than winning their underwhelming division, as I still think they’re a little short of being a true Super Bowl contender. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 9-8, 1st in AFC South

Houston Texans 2023 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews, Texans

Quarterback

The Texans have been the worst team in the NFL over the past three seasons, with records of 4-12, 4-13, and 3-13-1, collapsing after years of failed attempts to go all in for a Super Bowl, leaving them with just one first round pick and just two top-50 picks in a four year span from 2018-2021. Their lack of high draft picks severely handicapped their ability to add young talent behind their key veterans and, as many of those key veterans left in a short period of time (DeShaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins, Jadeveon Clowney, JJ Watt, Kareem Jackson. Tyrann Mathieu, and DJ Reader, among others), the Texans were predictably left with a barren roster, leading to their recent struggles.

Fortunately for the Texans, the NFL is designed for teams not to be too bad for too long. The Texans received a trio of first round picks from the Browns in exchange for Watson, giving them two first round picks in each of the past two drafts, with their own first round picks being 3rd in 2021 and 2nd in 2022 as a result of their poor performance on the field. The Texans have also finally freed up some cap space after years of salary cap hell, allowing them to add veteran reinforcements to this young roster. The Texans probably aren’t a playoff team yet, but their recent additions give them a lot of hope for the future.

None of their recent additions is more important than the Texans’ selection of Ohio State quarterback CJ Stroud with the #2 overall pick in this year’s draft, giving the Texans what they hope is their first franchise quarterback since Deshaun Watson’s last season with the team in 2020. In the two seasons since Watson last suited up for the team, the Texans have completed 62.8% of their passes for an average of 6.46 YPA, 41 touchdowns, and 34 interceptions, as big of a reason as any for their struggles over that time. Stroud is not a sure thing, but he’s a high level quarterback prospect who is NFL ready and it won’t be hard for him to be an immediate upgrade over what the Texans have had under center in recent years, even if he has growing pains as a rookie. He figures to start week one.

Davis Mills is the quarterback who has started the most for the Texans over the past two seasons and who was by default their best quarterback, even though he completed 63.6% of his passes for an average of 6.62 YPA, 33 touchdowns, and 25 interceptions, with the team going just 5-19-1 in his starts. He’s a young quarterback in his own right, a 3rd round pick in 2021, and he has still has the upside to be at least an above average backup long-term, but it’s hard to see where he fits in Houston, with the Texans not only drafting Stroud, but also signing veteran journeyman backup Case Keenum in free agency to a contract that guarantees him 4 million, effectively locking him into a roster spot. The Texans might opt to carry three quarterbacks, but that seems unlikely and Mills probably has enough value and upside that the Texans could trade him and get something for him rather than having to cut him outright if they wanted to move on from him.

Regardless of what happens with Mills, Keenum seems like the most likely backup option. He’s going into his age 35 season now, but he’s an experienced backup/stopgap starter, with 64 starts in 11 seasons in the league, and he’s fared pretty well with a 85.2 QB rating for his career. He has made just two starts over the past three seasons, so, given his age, it’s fair to wonder how he’ll fare if forced into extended action by an injury to Stroud, but he’s still probably an above average backup option and the Texans are obviously hoping he doesn’t have to see the field. Stroud should represent an upgrade under center for the Texans in 2023, even if he struggles a little bit as a rookie.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

One key player who remains from the last time the Texans were competitive is left tackle Laremy Tunsil, the acquisition of whom is actually part of why the Texans ended up in the situation they were in, as he cost the Texans two first round picks in a trade, one of which was the 3rd overall pick, which was subsequently traded for three more first round picks. Tunsil has been one of the Texans’ better players since being acquired, with PFF grades of 75.8, 75.4, and 80.0 in 2019, 2020, and 2022 respectively, with an injury plagued 2021 season in between, but the Texans had to give him a 3-year, 66 million dollar extension when they acquired him and then a subsequent 3-year, 75 million dollar extension this off-season to keep him long-term, making him the highest paid offensive lineman in the league in terms of average annual salary. He’s one of the better left tackles in the league and he’s still in his prime in his age 29 season, but the Texans surrendered a lot in terms of draft capital and salary to acquire and keep him.

The Texans have also spent two first round picks on the offensive line in recent years, one of whom, Tytus Howard, was their only first round pick in that 4-year stretch that I mentioned earlier. Howard hasn’t quite been worth that draft selection, but he’s posted grades of 62.1 and 67.9 on PFF in his last two seasons at right tackle in 2020 and 2022 respectively, with a failed experiment at guard (51.4 PFF grade) in 2021 in between, so he wasn’t really a bad pick either and he should remain at least a solid starting right tackle. He and Tunsil will be backed up by 2020 4th round pick Charlie Heck, who has struggled in 17 career starts, but who isn’t a horrible swing tackle option.

The other first round pick they used on this unit was Kenyon Green, who was selected 15th overall in the 2022 NFL Draft. Green subsequently had a horrendous rookie season, finishing 87th among 88 eligible guards on PFF with a 37.7 grade. He still has the upside to be a lot better long-term and, at the very least, I wouldn’t expect him to be that bad two years in a row, but he has a long way to go to at least be an average starting left guard.

The Texans also used a 2nd round pick in this year’s draft on Penn State’s Juice Scruggs, who figures to start at center as a rookie, where he almost definitely will be an upgrade on incumbent Scott Quessenberry, who finished as PFF’s worst ranked center out of 42 eligible last season with a 36.6 grade in the first extended starting experience of the 2018 5th round pick’s career. Scruggs could also struggle as a rookie as well, but just by sending Quessenberry to a reserve role, he should upgrade this offensive line at least somewhat.

Also added this off-season is veteran Shaq Mason, who the Texans acquired from the Buccaneers via trade and subsequently signed to a 3-year, 36 million dollar deal. Mason is going into his age 30 season and coming off the worst PFF grade of his career since his rookie season in 2015, but he still posted a 68.9 PFF grade, after six straight seasons of 70+ grades, including five seasons in the 80s, and he’s not totally over the hill yet, so he could have some bounce back potential. 

At the very least, Mason should give them a solid starter with the upside to be more if he can turn back the clock a little. Incumbent right guard AJ Cann wasn’t bad last season (66.6), but the Texans upgraded a little by letting Cann walk in free agency and replacing him with Mason. With Mason coming in, better play expected from Kenyon Green, and the addition of Juice Scruggs in the draft, this offensive line should be better than a year ago, but they’re still probably only about average.

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

One player the Texans lost this off-season is veteran wide receiver Brandin Cooks. Cooks is going into his age 30 season and his production (57/699/3) in 2022 was not in line with his scheduled 18 million dollar salary for 2023, but he still led the team in receiving yards in 13 games and poor quarterback play was likely as much to blame as anything for his disappointing statistical season, after surpassing 1000 yards in six of the previous seven seasons. 

The Texans probably wanted to keep Cooks, who had a 72.3 PFF grade in 2022, but Cooks had left the team for a period last year and had demanded a trade, so the Texans eventually had to give him his wish, sending him to Dallas. His 18 million dollar salary for 2023 was fully guaranteed, so the Texans had to eat 6 million in a trade that only returned a 5th round pick and 6th round pick, which is disappointing for the Texans, especially since they’re losing a key player in the process, albeit an aging and expensive one.

To replace Cooks, the Texans signed veteran Robert Woods and used a 3rd round pick on Tank Dell. They’ll also get 2022 2nd round pick John Metchie back from an illness that cost him his entire rookie season and they could get more out of 2021 3rd round pick Nico Collins. It’s unlikely any of them will give the Texans the upside Cooks would have. Dell and Metchie have upside, but neither have played in the NFL yet and will almost definitely have growing pains in their first NFL action.

Woods used to be a 1000+ yard receiver with the Rams, surpassing that mark in 2018 (86/1219/6) and 2019 (90/1134/2) and averaging a 92/1157/6 slash line per 17 games in five seasons in Los Angeles, but a bad knee injury ended his 2021 season after nine games and subsequently ended his tenure with the Rams, with the Titans acquiring him last off-season in what amounted to a salary dump of his 13 million dollar salary, 3 million of which the Rams ate as part of the trade in exchange for a late round pick. 

Woods disappointed in Tennessee in his first season back from injury, with a 53/527/2 slash line and a 1.14 yards per route run average after averaging 1.88 yards per route run with the Rams, and, as a result, he was released by the Titans ahead of 13.75 million non-guaranteed owed this season. The Texans are getting him much cheaper, on a 2-year, 15.25 million dollar deal, and he could be better another year removed from injury, but he’s also going into his age 31 season now, so his best days are almost definitely behind him, even if he happens to be somewhat better this season than a year ago.

With Woods not being a #1 caliber receiver anymore, it’s possible Nico Collins leads this team in receiving. Collins hasn’t played that much in two seasons in the league, limited to 536 snaps in 14 games as a rookie (38.3 snaps per game) and then playing a bigger role in 2022 (44.1 snaps per game), but missing seven games due to injury. However, his yards per route run average jumped from 1.24 as a rookie to 1.68 last season, despite mediocre quarterback play and he has the upside to take a step forward in year three in a bigger role with a better quarterback. He’s not likely to be a #1 caliber receiver either, but he probably has the most upside of the group.

The Texans did add veteran tight end Dalton Schultz from the Cowboys in free agency this off-season, on a 1-year, 6.25 million dollar deal and, with the lack of a true #1 receiver, Schultz figures to have a big role. Schultz was franchise tagged last off-season by the Cowboys after a 2021 season in which he had a 78/808/8 slash line and a 1.47 yards per route run average, a big jump from a 63/615/4 slash line and 1.11 yards per route run average the previous year.

His production fell to 57/577/5 and 1.38 yards per route run in 2022, but a knee injury cost him two games and he wasn’t really healthy until week 7, from which point he had 1.56 yards per route run and a 46/497/5 slash line in 11 games, a 71/768/8 pace over 17 games. He won’t have as good of quarterback play in Houston as he did in Dallas, but he’ll probably be a bigger part of the offense in Houston and he’ll almost definitely be an upgrade at the position for a team whose best tight end in 2022 had a 37/495/5 slash line.

That tight end, Jordan Akins (406 snaps), is no longer with the team, nor is OJ Howard (310 snaps), leaving 2021 5th round pick Brevin Jordan and 2022 5th round pick Teagan Quitoriano as the primary reserve options behind Schultz. Both have some upside and neither will be counted on for a big role, but both could easily see a career high in snaps, with Jordan playing just 503 snaps in two seasons in the league and Quitoriano playing just 322 snaps as a rookie, and both could struggle in a larger role. This isn’t a bad receiving corps, but they lack a #1 option and have a lot of inexperienced players.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

Starting running back Dameon Pierce was a rare bright spot on this offense last season, as the 4th round rookie rushed for 939 yards and 4 touchdowns on 220 carries (4.27 YPC) in just 13 games, while receiving a 78.9 grade from PFF. The problem was all of the Texans’ other running backs, who struggled mightily when Pierce wasn’t not on the field. Dare Ogunbowale, Royce Freeman, and Rex Burkhead were next on the team with 42 carries, 41 carries, and 26 carries respectively, but they averaged just 2.93 YPC, 2.85 YPC, and 3.08 YPC respectively.

The Texans addressed their need for running back depth by signing free agent Devin Singletary, bringing him over from the Bills on a 1-year, 2.75 million dollar deal. The Texans’ needed another running back, but Singletary is an odd fit. He still shouldn’t take more than a few carries per game away from Pierce, who is the better back, but he’s being paid a somewhat significant amount, suggesting he’ll have a role in some capacity. He also doesn’t compliment Dameon Pierce’s weakness well as, like Pierce, Singletary has struggled in the passing game in his career, averaging just 0.72 yards per route run (0.83 yards per route run for Pierce). 

It’s possible Singletary could cut into Pierce’s carries a little bit and Pierce could compensate with more usage in the passing game, but Pierce and Singletary seem too similar to be a good fit together, with Singletary as a lesser version. Singletary averaged 4.69 YPC on 672 carries in four seasons in Buffalo, but he benefited significantly from playing on one of the best offenses in the league, where there was plenty of room to run. That won’t be the case in Houston, where Pierce was still able to have success despite the lack of talent around him and Singletary may not be able to. 

The Texans may also still use holdover Dare Ogunbowale in obvious passing situations, something they did in certain situations last season (130 of his 184 snaps played were on passing downs last season). He was underwhelming in that role though, averaging just 1.04 yards per route run, and has just 1.01 yards per route run and 3.30 yards per carry for his career. If he has a significant role, it’s because the Texans just don’t trust Pierce or Singletary in passing situations. Most likely, Ogunbowale will just be a deep reserve, with Pierce and Singletary splitting work probably 2/1 on both early downs and passing downs, but it’s a situation to pay attention to.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

The Texans also made some significant additions on defense this off-season. At the interior defender position, their biggest addition was Sheldon Rankins, who comes over from the Jets on a 1-year, 9.5 million dollar deal after a 2022 season in which he had a 73.1 PFF grade on 558 snaps, one of the best seasons of his career. Rankins also received a 79.0 grade on 642 from PFF in 2018, but, prior to last season, he hadn’t reached that level since, limited to 738 mostly nondescript snaps in 22 games combined in injury plagued seasons in 2019 and 2020, before struggling mightily in his first season with the Jets in 2021, when he had a career worst 46.1 PFF grade. 

Rankins is a capable run defender too, but he’s at his best as a pass rusher, with 23.5 sacks, 34 hits, and a 8.1% pressure rate for his career. He’s still only in his age 29 season and the former first round pick has plenty of talent when he’s at his best, but his history of inconsistency and injury (20 games missed in seven seasons in the league) suggests that he’s unlikely to repeat last season’s performance. Still, Rankins should be a welcome addition for a Texans team that only had one interior defender receive even an average grade from PFF in 2022, Maliek Collins, who received a 65.4 on 601 snaps.

Collins remains with the team and should be the other starter inside next to Rankins. Collins’ run defense, leaves something to be desired, as he’s received a grade lower than 60 for his run defense from PFF in five of seven seasons in the league, but he’s been above 60 in pass rush grade in every season, totaling 20.5 sacks, 39 hits, and a 7.9% pressure rate in his career, and he’s finished in the 60s for overall grade in four of the past five seasons. Still in his prime in his age 28 season, I would expect more of the same from Collins in 2023.

Roy Lopez (557 snaps), Kurt Hinish (435 snaps), and Thomas Booker (206 snaps) all played significant roles last season and remain on the roster, but they all struggled, with PFF grades of 52.7, 49.5, and 35.3 respectively, and all will have to compete for reserve roles in 2023, along with veteran journeyman Hassan Ridgeway, who the Texans added in free agency. Ridgeway has been middling at best on an average of 247 snaps played per season in seven seasons in the league, so he’s not a strong reserve option, but none of the Texans other interior defenders look like strong reserve options either. 

Lopez was just a 6th round pick in 2021 and also struggled as a rookie with a 55.7 PFF grade on 502 snaps, while Hinish and Booker were rookies that went undrafted and in the 5th round respectively in 2022. It’s possible those three young players have some untapped upside, but given where they were drafted, it wouldn’t be a surprise if they never developed into even reliable rotational players. Collins and Rankins are a decent starting duo, but their lack of depth makes this an underwhelming group overall. 

Grade: C+

Edge Defenders

On the edge, the Texans’ big addition this off-season came through the draft. After using the 2nd overall pick on quarterback CJ Stroud, the Texans then traded up to the 3rd pick immediately after, surrendering the 12th overall pick they received in the Deshaun Watson trade, as well as their own first round pick next year, to select Alabama edge defender Will Anderson, widely considered the top defensive prospect in the draft and the Texans’ second choice at 2 if they had decided not to take a quarterback. 

The Texans will still have a first round pick next year from the Watson trade, but it’s still a risky move for a team like the Texans who could have a high pick again next year to give away their own pick and the Texans still probably aren’t in a position to be giving away future first round picks, considering how many recent drafts they have had without a first round pick. However, Anderson comes with a massive upside and, if he makes good on that upside, the Texans’ trade up for him will prove worth it. He probably won’t make good on that upside right away as a rookie, but he should still have a positive impact for this team.

With Anderson being added, the edge defender position looks like it will be a strength for this team in 2023. The Texans lost a trio of edge defenders who played significant roles last season, Rasheem Green (567 snaps), Ogbonnia Okoronkwo (517 snaps), and Mario Addison (367 snaps), but Green (62.4 PFF grade) and Addison (57.8 PFF grade) were underwhelming last season and, while Okoronkwo played at a pretty high level (75.1 PFF grade), the Texans should still get better edge defender play in 2022 than they had in 2023 even without Okoronkwo, in part because of the addition of Anderson, but also because they should get a healthier season out of Jonathan Greenard, who was limited to 284 middling snaps in 8 games last season by injury.

Greenard looked on his way to a breakout season in 2022, after the 2020 3rd round pick flashed in limited action in 2021, only playing 414 snaps, but receiving a 82.9 PFF grade and totaling 8 sacks, 7 hits, and a 12.6% pressure rate, despite the limited playing time. Because of that promise, Greenard’s injury plagued 2022 season (63.4 PFF grade) was disappointing, but he’s still only in his age 26 season and could easily have that breakout season in 2023 if he can stay healthy. That’s not a guarantee, considering he’s still a projection to a larger role and has only finished with better than an average grade on PFF once in three seasons in the league, but he has plenty of upside.

Greenard also probably won’t have to play a huge role in a position group that has Will Anderson, as well as veteran holdover Jerry Hughes, who had a 71.4 PFF grade across 689 snaps last season. That’s nothing new for Hughes, who has finished above 70 on PFF in nine of the previous ten seasons, excelling as a pass rusher with 61.5 sacks, 69 hits, and a 13.1% pressure rate over that span. Hughes doesn’t seem to have slowed down much, with 9 sacks, no hits, and a 15.2% pressure rate last season, and he’s only missed two games in the past 11 seasons combined, but he’s going into his age 35 season, so he could easily decline significantly this season. Even if he does though, he should at least be a capable edge defender, with the potential to be an above average option if he doesn’t decline significantly. 

Hughes, Greenard, and Anderson will rotate heavily and should form an above average edge defender trio. With those three on the depth chart, there isn’t much need for depth behind them, but veteran Jacob Martin figures to see at least some snaps as a deep reserve. Martin was added in free agency this off-season and it’s a return to Houston for him, after spending 2019-2021 with the Texans. Martin earned below average grades of 56.5 and 53.8 in limited roles in 2019 (220 snaps) and 2020 (375 snaps) respectively, but took a step forward in 2021, receiving a 67.3 PFF grade on 700 snaps. 

Martin’s solid 2021 season led to him receiving a 3-year, 13.5 million dollar deal from the Jets in free agency last off-season, but he was buried in a deep edge defender rotation in New York, playing just 152 snaps in eight games, and was traded to the Broncos mid-season for a swap of mid-round picks. With Denver, Martin played just 109 snaps in five games before going down for the season with injury and he was subsequently released this off-season, saving 5 million. Martin still had a 65.1 PFF grade across 267 snaps last season, his second straight season with a grade over 65, so he should be a good option as a deep reserve in a position group that is led by a talented trio.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The Texans didn’t make any big additions at linebacker this off-season, but they signed a pair of veteran linebackers, Denzel Perryman and Cory Littleton, to cheap one-year deals worth 2.6 million and 2.4 million respectively and they should be valuable additions for a team who didn’t have a linebacker play more than 250 snaps and receive even an average grade from PFF in 2022. Perryman and Litteton, meanwhile, received grades of 74.2 and 72.2 respectively last season from PFF, 17th and 24th among eligible linebackers, but were available cheaply for similar reasons.

Perryman has finished above 70 on PFF four times in eight seasons in the league, including three of the past five seasons, but he’s going into his age 31 season, he’s missed 34 games in his career, while never once playing in every game in a season, and he’s been pretty inconsistent in his career, with three seasons below 60 on PFF in his career, though two were in his second and third season in the league. He’s especially been inconsistent in coverage, which, combined with his injury history, has prevented him from playing more than 600 snaps in all but one season in the league. 

Perryman has five straight seasons over 65 in run defense grade on PFF and he has a good chance to remain an above average early down linebacker in 2023, even given his age, but he figures to miss more time with injury at some point this season, he likely won’t play in many sub packages in obvious passing situations, and it’s possible his abilities drop off significantly, now on the wrong side of 30. Even still, he’s an upgrade over what the Texans had last season, and at a cheap price.

Littleton comes cheap for similar reasons, particularly his age (age 30 season) and his history of inconsistency, especially in coverage. Littleton was an above average every down linebacker in 2018 and 2019 with the Rams, finishing with PFF grades of 66.0 and 79.0 respectively on snap counts of 964 and 1,039 respectively, landing him a big contract with the Raiders. However, Littleton was a big bust with the Raiders, falling all the way to 46.3 in PFF grade on 849 snaps in his first season with the team and continuing to struggle with a 47.2 PFF grade in his second season, in which he would get benched and play just 663 snaps total. 

Littleton’s struggles with the Raiders led to him being released last off-season and landing with the Carolina Panthers, with whom he proved to be a solid base package linebacker, with a 72.2 PFF grade on 372 snaps. Littleton could play close to an every down role in Houston and he has more of a history of doing so and succeeding in coverage than Perryman, but he’s also been the worst of the two players overall in recent years and could regress back to his 2020-2021 form in an every down role again. Like Perryman, he’s an upgrade by default and comes with some potential if he can play up to his best level, but I think he’s less likely than Perryman to play up to his best and I think his floor is lower as well.

Christian Kirksey (1,139 snaps) and Christian Harris (711 snaps) are their top returning linebackers from a year ago and both figure to continue having at least some role, with Perryman and/or Littleton likely limited to base package play. Kirksey is also a veteran and he is plenty experienced with 94 starts in 114 games in nine seasons in the league, averaging 57.0 snaps played per game, but he’s finished below 60 on PFF in five straight seasons and is now going into his age 31 season, so he would almost definitely be a below average option, after a 2022 season in which he finished with a 56.1 PFF grade. 

Harris, on the other hand, was a third round rookie last season and he struggled even more, finishing dead last out of 93 eligible off ball linebackers on PFF with a 28.3 grade. He has the upside to be better in year two and is probably the best coverage athlete of the bunch, but his coverage play (29.6 PFF grade in 2022) will need to take a big step forward for him to be a reliable option in sub packages. Perryman and Littleton make this linebacking corps better by default, but they have their own problems and the rest of this group is very underwhelming. 

Grade: B-

Secondary

At cornerback, the Texans big addition this off-season was Shaq Griffin, who two off-seasons ago signed a 3-year, 40 million dollar deal with the Jaguars. Griffin was pretty good in his first season in Jacksonville, with a 72.0 PFF grade, his second season in the 70s in three years, and wasn’t bad to start last season either, with a 61.8 PFF grade in five games, but he missed the rest of the season with injury and the Jaguars subsequently cut him this off-season to avoid paying him the final 13.5 million of his contract. Griffin is still only in his age 28 season, so it’s surprising the Texans were able to get him for just 3.5 million on a one-year deal, especially since they don’t even guarantee him an opportunity to start. 

Derek Stingley was the third overall pick in last year’s draft and, even after an injury plagued rookie season in which he had a 49.1 PFF grade in 9 starts, he figures to remain locked into a starting job and has a great chance to be significantly improved in year two, even if only by default. Desmond King probably has the slot locked down, after posting a 73.2 grade last season, his 4th season above 70 in six seasons in the league. Steven Nelson is probably the most vulnerable to losing his job to Griffin, but he has a good chance to keep his job after a 66.7 PFF grade in 15 starts last season, his 7th straight season above 60 on PFF (99 starts). 

Nelson is going into his age 30 season, but, assuming he doesn’t decline significantly, he could still hold off Griffin for the starting job. The Texans also have Tavierre Thomas, primarily a special teamer, who has surprised with PFF grades of 77.6 and 70.0 on 639 snaps and 409 snaps respectively on defense over the past two seasons. He’ll probably only be a deep reserve, but he legitimately makes the Texans five deep at cornerback and, even if they don’t have a clear #1 cornerback, this is a solid group overall, especially if Stingley takes a big step forward in year two, which he has the potential to do.

At safety, the Texans added Jimmie Ward on a 2-year, 13 million dollar deal in free agency and he figures to be a massive upgrade over incumbent Jonathan Owens, who is no longer with the team after finishing 92nd out of 96 eligible safeties with a 48.3 PFF grade last season. Ward, on the other hand, has finished above 70 on PFF in four straight seasons. He comes relatively cheap in free agency because of his age, going into his age 32 season, and his injury history, 40 games missed in 9 seasons in the league, with just one season in which he played every game. He comes with some risk, but he should be a massive upgrade regardless.

Jalen Pitre also struggled last season as the other starting safety, receiving a 54.7 grade from PFF, but he was only a rookie and the former second round pick could easily take a step forward in 2023 in his second season as a starter. If he continues to struggle, it’s possible he could be benched and the Texans could leverage their cornerback depth to fill his spot, with slot cornerback Desmond King having experience at safety as well. The Texans also have solid depth at safety with Eric Murray and MJ Stewart. 

Murray has been a middling starter at best in his career, but he has made 40 starts in seven seasons in the league and is not a bad reserve option, while Stewart is not nearly as experienced, maxing out at 328 snaps in five seasons in the league, but the former second round pick has flashed in limited action with PFF grades of 83.8 and 70.1 over the past two seasons. This is a solid secondary overall, much improved last season, with Ward and Griffin being added and Stingley and Pitre going into their second seasons in the league.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

After three years of being among the worst teams in the league, the Texans are finally heading in the right direction, selecting a potential franchise quarterback high in this year’s draft and finally having cap space to add veteran reinforcements to this young roster. The result is a team that is still unlikely to make the post-season, but that should be a lot more competitive this season, after 16 losses by double digits over the past two seasons combined. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 6-11, 4th in AFC South

Tennessee Titans 2023 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews, Titans

Quarterback

The Titans finished the 2021 season with a 12-5 record, giving them the #1 seed in the AFC, but they went 6-2 in one-score games and finished just 20th in DVOA, so it seemed likely they would regress significantly in 2022, especially given the key players they lost last off-season. The Titans seemed to defy expectations to start the year, starting 7-3, but most of their wins were close against sub-.500 teams, so a regression still seemed likely and it came in a big way when they lost their final seven games to finish out of the playoffs at 7-10, while finishing 23rd in DVOA. 

This off-season, the Titans lost even more key personnel as they start to enter what looks like something of a rebuild. One player they didn’t move on from this off-season that they could have moved on from is quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who is set to make a non-guaranteed 27 million in the final year of his contract. The Titans could have saved the whole amount against the cap by getting rid of him and he probably would have had at least somewhat of a trade market, but the Titans opted to keep him as the starter for the 5th straight season.

Tannehill burst onto the scene with the Titans in 2019, completing 70.3% of his passes for an average of 9.59 YPA, 22 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, good for by far a career best 117.5 QB rating, after previously maxing out at 93.5 in the first seven seasons of his career in Miami. He continued playing well in his second season in Tennessee, albeit not as good as 2019, completing 65.5% of his passes for an average of 7.94 YPA, 33 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. 

However, his production has dropped off across the board over the past two seasons, completing 66.5% of his passes for an average of 7.32 YPA, 34 touchdowns, and 20 interceptions, a drop off that coincided with the decrease in supporting talent around him on this offense. Now going into his age 35 season, Tannehill’s best days are likely behind him and he will almost definitely remain a quarterback who, at best, is only as good as his supporting cast. That’s not a good combination with a mediocre supporting cast and a rebuilding roster, so it wouldn’t have been a surprise to see the Titans move on from him this off-season, but he’ll be back for another season.

One thing the Titans didn’t do this off-season was commit to Tannehill long-term, not only declining to give him an extension, even though doing so would have lowered his cap hit, but also selecting a possible successor Will Levis with the 33rd pick in the draft. Levis enters the league raw and will begin his career as a backup, but he has the upside to be a starter long-term and it’s likely the Titans view him as their starter in 2024 and beyond, perhaps even earlier if Tannehill struggles and/or the team falls out of contention this season. 

At the very least, Levis should give them a better backup than they had last season, when they struggled to replace Ryan Tannehill in the five games he missed with injury (four losses). The Titans first turned to Malik Willis, a 2022 3rd round pick who was drafted as a potential successor to Tannehill, but he struggled so much (42.8 QB rating) that the Titans benched him for career journeyman Josh Dobbs, who had a 73.8 QB rating in the first two starts of his 6-year career. Dobbs is no longer with the team, while Willis is likely to be cut or traded before the start of the season with Levis now the #2 quarterback and the long-term quarterback of the future. The Titans’ don’t have a bad quarterback room, but it’s a position group in transition with the aging, middling, and highly-paid Tannehill looking over his shoulder at a young, high upside, cheaper option.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

The Titans had the third most adjusted games lost to injury last season, which is unlikely to happen again, which would seem to give the Titans a some hope of improvement overall in 2023, but many of the key players who missed time with injury last season are no longer on the roster at all, so the Titans aren’t going to benefit significantly from players returning from injury. The offensive line is a good example, as left tackle Taylor Lewan, center Ben Jones, and right guard Nate Davis were limited to 2 starts, 12 starts, and 12 starts respectively last season and are all no longer on the roster. 

In their place, the Titans have free agent acquisitions Andre Dillard and Daniel Brunskill and first round draft pick Peter Skoronski out of Northwestern. Dillard has the best chance of the three to significantly upgrade a position, as he’ll play left tackle, where Taylor Lewan missed most of the season and where the Titans got very poor play in his absence, with Dennis Daley finishing as PFF’s 83rd ranked offensive tackle out of 87 eligible. 

Dillard hasn’t started many games at the NFL level, making nine starts in four seasons in the league, but that’s in part due to injury and in part because he was stuck behind one of the best offensive tackle duos in the league with the Eagles in Jordan Mailata and Lane Johnson. Dillard has been decent in limited action and was actually a first round pick back in 2019, so he comes with some upside, but he’ll mostly just be an upgrade because of how bad their play was at the position a year ago. The Titans may have overpaid by giving him 29 million over 3 years, although it’s possible he plays up to that level if he can stay healthy and show his top form consistently.

Skoronski has the most upside of the group, as is to be expected out of a rookie first round pick, but it’s unclear where he’ll play. Skoronski was a tackle in college, but is practicing at both guard and tackle this off-season and could conceivably start at either spot. If Skoronski plays tackle, it would almost definitely be right tackle opposite Dillard, where he would replace Nicholas Petit-Frere, who struggled with a 52.3 grade from PFF last season. Petit-Frere was a 3rd round pick who was just a rookie last season though, so the Titans may not want to give up on him just now, so Skoronski could start inside at either guard spot instead.

If Skoronski played right guard, he would struggle to be an upgrade over Nate Davis, who was PFF’s 16th ranked guard last season at 70.6. That’s true of anyone on the roster though and Skoronski would at least give them the best chance. At left guard, Skoronski would almost definitely be an upgrade over Aaron Brewer, who received a 59.9 grade in 17 starts last season, after receiving a 56.3 in 5 starts in 2021 in the first significant action of the 2020 undrafted free agent’s career. 

The Titans are thin enough on the offensive line that they’ll probably need Brewer to start somewhere, but that somewhere could be center, where they’ll need to replace Ben Jones, who had a 71.9 PFF grade in 12 starts last season. Daniel Brunskill, their other free agent addition, could also start at center, or he could start at one of the guard spots, as he has experience at both guard and center in his career. He’s mostly been a middling starter in his career, but he does have 42 starts over the past four seasons and the Titans need a reliable starter on the inside, so he wasn’t a bad addition on a 2-year, 5.5 million contract. He’ll likely start wherever Brewer doesn’t, with Skoronski possibly playing the other guard spot. 

If Skoronski ends up outside, that would open up a starting job inside for Dillon Radunz, a 2021 2nd round pick who has been terrible in limited action, but who theoretically still has upside. Radunz has only played snap totals of 124 and 280 in his first two seasons in the league and he received grades of just 49.7 and 40.3 from PFF for his limited action, so it seems unlikely he’ll suddenly turn into a solid starter in year three, but it’s a possibility. There’s some upside with this group, but there’s a lot of uncertainty with a group that has very little experience overall.

Grade: C+

Receiving Corps

Another veteran player the Titans moved on from this off-season was wide receiver Robert Woods, who would have been owed 13.75 million non-guaranteed in his age 31 season in 2023. Woods was their team leader in targets with 91, but he won’t be missed much as he was highly inefficient with those targets, turning them into just a 53/527/2 slash line. The Titans didn’t really replace Woods and will hope to get more out of young wide receivers in Woods’ place. Unfortunately, it’s a pretty underwhelming group of young players, especially given that the Titans don’t have any good veteran options either. 

Second year wide receiver Treylon Burks has by far the most upside of the group, as the 18th pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. Burks didn’t play much as a rookie, in part due to injury, but he still had a 33/444/1 slash line in limited action and averaged 1.75 yards per route run. If he can stay healthier and take a step forward in year two, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him continue being that efficient in a much larger workload. He’s a projection to a larger role and could be a little overmatched as a de facto #1 wide receiver, but the Titans don’t have a better option and he has a lot of upside.

The rest of the Titans’ options are underwhelming. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine saw significant action last season, but the 2020 undrafted free agent averaged just 0.95 yards per route run, after averaging 1.26 yards per route run in limited action in his career prior to last season. He probably shouldn’t continue being a significant contributor after that performance, but the Titans probably don’t have a choice and he could be as high as their #2 wide receiver, given their lack of other options.

Kyle Phillips is another second year receiver, but the 5th round pick saw just 64 snaps as a rookie and is a complete projection to a larger role. Tennessee-Martin’s Colton Dowell was a 7th round pick in this year’s draft, but will almost definitely be overmatched in a larger role as a rookie. Racey McMath went in the 6th round in 2021, but has played just 171 snaps in two seasons in the league and doesn’t look like a realistic option for significant playing time. 

The one veteran the Titans added to this group this off-season was Chris Moore, but the 48/548/2 slash line he had last season was a career best for the 7-year veteran, who has averaged just 1.08 yards per route run for his career and now heads into his age 30 season. Aside from a potential breakout year from Treylon Burks, there is not much to be excited about at the wide receiver position in Tennessee.

The Titans also let veteran tight end Austin Hooper walk in free agency. He wasn’t bad with a 41/444/2 slash line and a 1.39 yards per route run average, but the Titans want to give more playing time to 2022 4th round pick Chigoziem Okonkwo, who flashed a lot of potential with a 32/450/3 slash line and a 2.61 yards per route run average in limited rookie year action. Okonkwo still has work to do as a blocker and he’s very unlikely to be as efficient as he was in 2022 in an expanded role, but he doesn’t have any real competition for the starting job and could easily be a big part of a passing game that is in desperate need of weapons.

With Hooper gone, free agent acquisition Trevon Wesco will probably be the #2 tight end, but he’s a blocking specialist with 8 career catches who has never played more than 214 snaps in a season so, even as a backup, he’s an underwhelming option. The Titans also added Cincinnati’s Josh Whyle in the 5th round of this year’s draft and he at least gives them some passing game upside that Wesco doesn’t, but he’s not much of a blocker and, even as a receiver he is raw, so he probably won’t have much of a role as a rookie unless Okonkwo gets hurt, in which case he would almost definitely be a significant downgrade. This is a very unproven and underwhelming group, without much upside beyond Burks and Okonkwo, who are both second year players who only saw part-time roles as rookies.

Grade: C+

Running Backs

Another player the Titans could have moved on from this off-season but didn’t is running back Derrick Henry. Henry has been one of the best players in the league at his position for years, but he’s getting around the age (age 29 season) where even elite running backs start to drop off quickly and the Titans would have saved 11 million and likely received a high draft pick in return if they traded him, so it would make sense that the rebuilding Titans at least considered moving on from him this off-season.

However, the Titans likely viewed Henry as too valuable to move and will bring him back to once again handle the vast majority of the touches in this backfield. In 2022, Henry turned 349 carries (most in the NFL) into 1,538 yards and 13 touchdowns, his third season with over 300 carries over the past four seasons, with the exception being 2021, when he missed seven games due to injury and was on a 300+ carry pace before getting hurt. I would expect more of the same from him in 2023. The Titans used a third round pick in this year’s draft on Tulane’s Tyjae Spears, with an eye on the future beyond Henry, but he’s unlikely to significantly cut into Henry’s workload in year one.

Henry’s YPC average has dropped from 5.16 YPC over his first three seasons as a starter to 4.36 YPC over the past two seasons, but that has more to do with the decreasing amount of talent around him on this offense than it has to do with Henry declining significantly. Still, Henry’s age is a concern, as age 29 running backs are 40% less likely to surpass 1,000 yards than age 27 running backs, a steep drop off in a short period of time. Henry should be one of the best running backs in the league again this season, but he might not quite be his old dominant self and he might not find a ton of running room on this offense.

One area where Derrick Henry actually had a career best year in 2022 was in the passing game, as his 41 targets, 33 catches, and 398 yards were all career bests. The Titans still liked to spell Henry on some passing downs with veteran backup Dontrell Hillard last season, but Hillard is no longer with the team, leaving some passing game work up for grabs. It’s possible the Titans could give Henry more passing game work, but that might not be the best strategy because it would likely have to come at the expense of early down work, or they could risk overloading the aging running back.

The rookie Spears flashed some potential as a receiver in his final year in college (22/256/2), but he is probably too raw as a receiver for a significant passing down role as a rookie. The Titans also used a 4th round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft on a running back Hassan Haskins and, while it’s unlikely the Titans still view him as a potential successor to Henry, considering he played just 154 snaps as a rookie and then watched the Titans draft another running back this year, it’s still possible Haskins could see a bigger role in year two, especially in passing situations, with Hillard gone. 

Regardless of how the backup touches are split up, this is still Derrick Henry’s backfield and he figures to see the vast majority of the touches again. The Titans probably want to avoid overloading him though, so young running backs Hassan Haskins and Tyjae Spears will likely be sprinkled in here and there to spell the aging veteran. Henry might not be what he used to be this season, but he should still be one of the best running backs in the league and the Titans’ depth situation isn’t bad either.

Grade: A

Edge Defenders

As they did on offense, the Titans also had an above average amount of injuries on their defense last season and their edge defender group was as affected as any position group, with expected top edge defender Harold Landry going down for the year before the season even started and replacement starter Bud Dupree limited to 453 mediocre snaps in 11 games by injuries of his own. Dupree is no longer with the team, with the Titans understandably wanting to save 17 million by moving on from the injury prone veteran, but Landry will return for 2023, which should be a big boost for this position group, assuming Landry is something resembling full strength.

A second round pick in 2018, Landry was one of the most durable players in the league before the injury, only missing one other game back in his rookie season, while playing snap counts of 953, 1,050, and 981 in 2019, 2020, and 2021 respectively, which were among the league leaders in snaps played by an edge defender in all three seasons. He hasn’t always been the most efficient player with his high snap counts and he may benefit from playing more of a rotational role, as his 10.2% career pressure rate is about average and his PFF grades have been in the 60s in all four healthy seasons, but he does have 31 sacks and 38 quarterback hits across those four seasons, so he has a good amount of production, even if you’d expect more out of someone who hardly ever came off the field. It’ll be interesting to see how much he plays in his return and if he becomes more efficient in a smaller role.

Regardless of his role, Landry’s return will be a welcome one for this group as his primary replacements Bud Dupree (58.2 PFF grade), Mario Edwards (56.0 PFF grade), and Rashad Weaver (60.6 PFF grade) were all mediocre at best. Edwards is also no longer with the team, which could be addition by subtraction, leaving Landry, Weaver, free agent acquisition Arden Key, and top holdover Denico Autry as their primary options on the edge. Weaver was mediocre last season, but it’s possible the 2021 4th round pick could be better in his third year in the league in 2023, especially if he plays a smaller snap count (640 snaps in 2022) in what looks like it will be a better group than a year ago.

Landry’s return is part of why this group should be better in 2023, but Arden Key could prove to be a smart signing on a 3-year, 21 million dollar deal as well. He’s mostly a rotational option, having not played more than 500 snaps in a season since his rookie year in 2018 when he struggled, but he has received grades of 69.5 and 81.3 from PFF over the past two seasons respectively on snap counts of 375 and 475, while totaling 11 sacks, 27 hits, and a 13.7% pressure rate in his limited role. The former third round pick has been a bit of a late bloomer, but he’s always had a lot of upside and he is only in his age 27 season, so has a good chance to continue being an efficient pass rush option in a situational, rotational role for the third straight season, now in his new home in Tennessee. 

Denico Autry (531 snaps) was the best of the bunch last season and could still be the best of the bunch even with Landry returning and Key being added. He probably won’t be as good as he was a year ago though, in part because of how good he was last season, with a 82.8 PFF grade and 8 sacks, 12 hits, and a 13.9% pressure rate in just 12 games, but also because he’s now going into his age 33 season. 

Autry has been a reliable player for a long time and has received average or better grades from PFF in six straight seasons, but prior to last season he had never received a grade higher than 72.9 and it’s unlikely that he’ll repeat the best season of his career again in his 10th season in the league in 2023. He should still be an above average option, assuming he doesn’t suddenly drop off a cliff at his age, but I wouldn’t expect him to be as good as he was a year ago. Even still, he could be the best of a group that lacks a high upside overall, but that should be better than a year ago.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

The Titans also lost interior defenders Kevin Strong (305 snaps) and DeMarcus Walker (427 snaps) this off-season. Strong was mediocre with a 59.5 PFF grade in his limited action, so he won’t really be missed, but Walker played at a pretty high level with a 72.8 PFF grade, especially excelling as a pass rusher with 7 sacks, 9 hits, and a 11.7% pressure rate. The Titans also didn’t do much to replace them, only adding veteran journeyman Jaleel Johnson in free agency, even though he’s never received even an average grade for a season on PFF in 6 seasons in the league, on an average of just 311 snaps per season, with a 43.6 PFF grade on 181 snaps in 2023.

With no other reserve options on this roster with any experience and no draft picks used on the position, Johnson will likely be one of the top reserves along with holdover Naquan Jones, who played just 156 snaps last season and received a 46.5 PFF grade, after the 2021 undrafted free agent received a 44.3 grade on 328 snaps as a rookie. He and Jones are very underwhelming reserve options who would almost definitely be major liabilities if forced into significant action by injuries ahead of them on the depth chart. Even as rotational reserves, they could easily be overmatched given their histories of poor play.

Fortunately, Jeffery Simmons and Teair Tart return as the starters, after both fared well with PFF grades of 81.1 and 73.1 respectively on snap counts of 840 and 520 respectively in 2022. For Simmons, that was no surprise, as the 2019 first round pick broke out as one of the better players in the league at his position in his second year in the league in 2020 and has posted grades of 83.6, 71.9, and 81.1 respectively over the past three seasons since, on snap counts of 841, 933, and 840 respectively. Also a talented run defender, Simmons excels as a pass rusher with 19 sacks, 26 hits, and a 8.8% pressure rate over the past three seasons and, still in his prime in his age 26 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2023, perhaps even more if he has further untapped upside.

For Tart, last year’s strong performance was a big surprise, after the 2020 undrafted free agent struggled with PFF grades of 48.7 and 59.2 respectively on 155 snaps and 344 snaps respectively in the first two seasons of his career. Tart was always a decent run stopper, but improved in that aspect last season and especially took a step forward as a pass rusher, finishing with 1.5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 8.5% pressure rate, after just a 3.8% pressure rate in his first two seasons in the league combined, which allowed him to stay on the field for more snaps. It’s possible Tart could prove to be a one-year wonder and even if he doesn’t, he might not be as good again in 2023 as he was in 2022, but he still has a good chance to remain at least a solid starting option, probably on an even bigger snap count given their lack of depth. Simmons and Tart are an above average starting duo, but their lack of depth hurts their overall grade and would be a serious problem if Simmons or Tart missed significant time with injury.

Grade: B

Linebackers

Off ball linebacker Zach Cunningham is yet another player who missed significant time with injury last season who is no longer on the roster at all, with the Titans moving on from Cunningham to save 11.25 million after an injury plagued season in which he played just 205 middling snaps in 6 games. A bigger loss will be free agent departed David Long, who received a 76.2 PFF grade in 740 snaps in 12 games last season, making him PFF’s 14th highest ranked off ball linebacker in the league. Also gone is veteran Dylan Cole, but he received just a 53.3 grade from PFF on 439 snaps so he won’t be missed too much.

In place of Long, Cole, and Cunningham, the Titans signed veterans Azeez Al-Shaair and Ben Niemann and will likely give more playing time to 2021 3rd round pick Monty Rice, who was decent on 366 snaps last season after struggling on 179 snaps as a rookie the year prior. He could take a step forward in year three and will compete for one of two starting roles with the two veteran free agent additions Al-Shaair and Niemann.

Al-Shaair is the more promising of the two additions, coming over from the 49ers on a 1-year, 5 million dollar deal. Al-Shaair was often buried on the depth chart in San Francisco behind Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw, arguably the best linebacker duo in the league, so he only played 305 snaps in 2020 and 313 snaps in 2022, but he did see 730 snaps in 2021 and he has received PFF grades of 61.0, 64.8, and 67.8 over the past three seasons respectively, so he should be at least a decent starting job for the Titans. Niemann, meanwhile, was signed for close to the minimum and, while he’s played an average of 478 snaps per season over the past four seasons, he’s never been more than a middling option. Al-Shaair is the heavy favorite to win at least one of the starting jobs, with Rice and Niemann perhaps splitting snaps at the other spot. It’s an underwhelming group overall.

Grade: B-

Secondary

Injuries affected the Titans’ secondary significantly last season as well. Cornerback Elijah Molden and Caleb Farley were supposed to play significant roles, but were limited to 82 snaps in 2 games and 104 snaps in 5 games respectively by injury, while starter Kristian Fulton also missed 6 games with injury as well. With their lack of cornerback depth, the Titans frequently used three safeties in sub packages, with Amani Hooker playing more slot cornerback than safety, but he struggled by his standards out of position, falling from a 83.3 PFF grade as a more of a traditional safety in 2021 to 63.3 last season, while also missing 8 games of his own with injury, which further hurt this secondary.

With what should be a healthier cornerback group, Hooker is expected to move back to safety, which will be necessary because Andrew Adams (726 snaps) and Josh Kalu (494 snaps), who saw significant action at safety last season with Hooker hurt and playing out of position, are no longer with the team. Both played pretty well in their limited action, receiving PFF grades of 70.9 and 68.0 respectively, and the Titans are left without any other experienced safeties behind Hooker and fellow starter Kevin Byard, so they will desperately need them to both stay healthy all year.

If Hooker stays healthy, he has a good chance to bounce back now in a more natural position for him, but he is somewhat of a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he did in 2021, with PFF grades in the 60s in each of his other three seasons in the league, so there’s a good chance he doesn’t bounce all the way back to his 2021 form, even if he should remain an above average option, still in his prime in his age 25 season. 

Byard, meanwhile, is no one-year wonder, with his 79.5 PFF grade in 2022 being his 5th season above 75 in the past six seasons, with his best years coming with grades of 87.0, 87.9, and 90.2 in 2017, 2018, and 2021 respectively. Byard is going into his age 30 season and could start to decline this season, but, even at less than his best, he should remain at least an above average starter and he could easily remain one of the best players in the league at his position, as he has been for years. Byard and Hooker could be one of the best safeties duos in the league in 2023 and they arguably were the best in 2021, when they both finished in the top-5 on PFF, but depth is a significant concern if either player gets hurt.

The Titans’ depth is better at cornerback than safety, but they have several players coming off injury plagued seasons and they are a very young group overall. The only cornerback the Titans have who isn’t on a rookie deal is free agent acquisition Sean Murphy-Bunting, who signed a 1-year, 3.5 million dollar deal for his 5th season in the league in 2023, coming over from Tampa Bay, with whom he was a 2nd round pick in 2019. Murphy-Bunting has mostly been a starter in his career, starting 36 of 53 games played in four seasons in the league, but injuries have been a big problem for him the past two seasons, missing 16 of a possible 34 games, and his play has been inconsistent overall. After a 66.2 PFF grade on 42.9 snaps per game as a rookie, Murphy-Bunting saw his snap counts increase to 55.3 per game and 51.3 per game in 2020 and 2021, but also saw his PFF grade fall to 55.9 and 61.7 respectively. That grade jumped to 76.6 in 2022 on 430 snaps in 9 games and he’s still only in his age 26 season, so he has some potential if he can stay healthy and permanently turn the corner as a player, but he also comes with a significant history of injury and inconsistency.

Fulton is second the most experienced of the bunch, with 26 starts since being selected in the 2nd round in 2020, including 24 over the past two seasons, but he’s been middling at best with PFF grades of 66.1 and 63.8 over the past two seasons respectively and injuries have prevented him from ever playing more than 13 games in a season. Still only in his age 25 season, it’s possible he could have further untapped potential if he can stay healthy, but I wouldn’t expect him to be more than a solid starter and he could easily miss more time with injury. Caleb Farley is the highest drafted of the bunch, selected in the first round in 2021, but injuries have limited him to 164 snaps total in two seasons in the league and he’s struggled mightily even when on the field, receiving PFF grades of 45.7 and 42.5. Farley is still young, but injuries were a concern with him going into the draft and it’s very possible he never stays healthy enough to develop into the cornerback he was expected to be when the Titans drafted him in the first round. He won’t be guaranteed a starting job.

Elijah Molden was the lowest drafted of the bunch, but the 2021 3rd round pick had a solid rookie year with a PFF of 64.1 on 632 snaps, before hardly playing due to injury last season. The 5-10 192 pounder is a slot specialist who probably isn’t a realistic candidate to start outside, but he should have the inside track to be the starter on the slot if he can stay healthy in 2023. The only Titans cornerback to stay healthy last season was Roger McCreary, a rookie second round pick who made all 17 starts. McCreary wasn’t great with a 62.6 PFF grade, but he could easily take a step forward in year two and should remain a starter, which he almost definitely will. 

The Titans should be healthier at cornerback than a year ago and have a pretty deep group when healthy, even if they aren’t very experienced, but they will need them to all stay healthy because the Titans don’t have the safety depth that they had last season to help mask their lack of cornerback depth. The Titans have a very talented safety duo if they both stay healthy and could have a solid cornerback group if they all stay healthy, but their lack of safety depth and their lack of cornerback experience hurt their overall grade in this position group.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Titans were one of the most injury plagued teams in the league last season and are just a season removed from being the #1 overall seed in the AFC with a 12-5 record, but a lot of the players who missed time with injury last season are no longer on the team, meaning the Titans won’t be getting as much help from players returning from injury as you would expect from a team that had the third most adjusted games lost to injury in the league last season. 

The Titans also weren’t nearly as good as their 12-5 record in 2021 and their regression to 7-10 was not all that surprising, with their DVOA actually only decreasing slightly in 2022, ranking 23rd after ranking 20th in 2021. On top of that, the Titans don’t have the same team as 2021, with several key players missing, and, overall, they appear to have a below average roster. They’ll benefit from playing in a weak division, but they also play in by far the tougher of the two conferences, so winning their division is their only real path to the post-season and they should still be significantly behind the reigning division champion Jaguars, so it’s very likely the Titans finish out of the post-season picture and quite possibly finish below .500 again. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 6-11, 2nd in AFC South

Indianapolis Colts 2023 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews, Colts

Quarterback

For years, the Colts had consistent high level quarterback play. They selected Peyton Manning #1 overall in 1998 and he started every game through 2010, before a 2011 neck injury knocked him out for the year, tanking the Colts and allowing them to select Andrew Luck with the #1 overall pick in 2012, giving the Colts arguably the best quarterback prospect since Peyton Manning. Luck started every game in his first three seasons in the league and the Colts seemed set for the future. However, Luck then missed 26 games with injury over the next four seasons combined, leading to Luck’s early retirement following the 2018 season. 

Since then, the Colts have had one of the most in flux quarterback positions in the league. Backup Jacoby Brissett took over for Luck in 2019, but he was mediocre and was upgraded with Philip Rivers, who the Colts signed for the 2020 season. Rivers wasn’t bad and led the Colts to the playoffs, but they lost in the first round and Rivers retired after the season. That left the Colts to trade for Carson Wentz as a potential long-term quarterback option, but he was mediocre in his first season with the Colts in 2021 and ended up getting traded and replaced by another veteran Matt Ryan.

At first glance, the move to replace Wentz with Ryan seemed like a good one. The Colts received two third round picks from Washington in exchange for Wentz and only had to send one third rounder to the Falcons to acquire Ryan, a much more consistent option who actually had a cheaper salary. The one downside with Ryan was his age, which proved to be a big problem, as Ryan dropped off quickly in what was his age 37 season. Wentz didn’t have a better year with Washington so the Colts still made the right decision to move on from him, but Ryan struggled for most of the year and was benched on several occasions. In total, he completed 67.0% of his passes for an average of 6.63 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions, a 83.9 QB rating that was his lowest since his second season in the league in 2009.

As much as Ryan struggled, he was actually the Colts best quarterback option by far last season, as the quarterbacks he was benched for, Sam Ehlinger and Nick Foles, finished the year with QB ratings of 76.1 and 34.3 respectively and went 0-5 in their five starts, as opposed to 4-7-1 for Ryan. However, even with him being the best quarterback on their roster, the Colts couldn’t justify bringing back Matt Ryan at a 29.25 million dollar salary for 2023, cutting him this off-season to get out of the 17.25 million non-guaranteed portion of that salary. 

Foles was not retained this off-season, while Ehlinger is expected to be no higher than the third quarterback. The Colts’ disastrous 4-12-1 season last year got them the 4th overall pick, which they used on Florida’s Anthony Richardson to be their quarterback of the future, and they also signed veteran Gardner Minshew in free agency, who can either be a high end backup or a low end stopgap starter if Richardson isn’t ready to start at the beginning of the season.

There’s a good chance that Richardson not being ready to start week one proves to be the case. Richardson comes into the league with a massive upside, with a huge arm and unparalleled athletic ability for his size, but he was underwhelming in his lone season as a college starter and is incredibly raw, especially as a passer. Gardner Minshew, meanwhile, has been decent as a starter in his career, with a 93.1 QB rating in 24 starts in four seasons in the league, so it won’t be easy for Richardson to beat him out. Richardson will be given every chance to win the job and, even if Minshew wins the job for week one, he likely won’t keep it for long, but Richardson is more likely than not to struggle when he does eventually get into the starting lineup. Even if he develops into a high level quarterback long-term, there are likely to be a lot of growing pains in year one.

Grade: C+

Running Backs

In addition to poor quarterback play, part of the reason for the Colts’ disappointing 2022 season was injuries. They had the 7th fewest adjusted games lost to injury in the league, but those injuries seemed to disproportionately affect their most important players. On offense, the big injury was Jonathan Taylor, who was the best running back in the league in 2021, rushing for a leading league 1,811 yards and 18 touchdowns on 332 carries (5.45 YPC), but who was limited to just 4.48 YPC and 4 touchdowns on 192 carries last season in an injury plagued season in which he missed 6 games and was limited in several others.

Running backs suffer injuries more than any other position and it’s very uncommon for running backs to ever repeat the kind of season Taylor had in 2021, but the 2020 2nd round pick also rushed for 5.04 YPC and 11 touchdowns on 232 carries as a rookie and, only going into his age 24 season, he has a great chance to bounce back and be one of the best running backs in the league again in 2023, even if he’s unlikely to be as dominant as he was in 2021 again. In Taylor’s absence last season, Zack Moss and Deon Johnson were the Colts’ primary running backs, ranking 2nd and 3rd on the team with 76 carries and 68 carries respectively. Both players will return to the team for 2023 and Northwestern’s Evan Hull was added in the 5th round of the draft. 

Moss was the better of the two backs last season, averaging 4.80 YPC to Jackson’s 3.47, and by the end of the season he cemented himself as a true lead back, with 69 of his carries in the final four games of the season. Moss had never shown much in his career prior to being acquired by the Colts mid-season in a trade last season, averaging just 4.08 YPC on 225 carries in two and a half seasons in the league, but he was a 3rd round pick in 2020 and could remain at least a solid #2 running back option, especially if he only has to see a few carries per game behind a healthy Jonathan Taylor. 

Jackson was a much less effective runner, in the first action of the 2021 undrafted free agent’s career, but he did average 1.47 yards per route run, while Moss averaged 0.22 yards per route run and has just a 0.78 yards per route run average for his career, so he has a good chance to earn a role as a passing down back. Jonathan Taylor isn’t a great receiver, with a 1.05 yards per route run average for his career, so they’ll probably want to spell him on some passing down snaps to keep him fresh, which creates a role for Jackson. If he’s healthy, Taylor should be among the league leaders in carries and rushing yards and the Colts have decent depth options as well.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

The Colts’ offensive line used to be a strength of the team, with a starting five that was one of the best of the league and that stayed together for years. However, left tackle Anthony Castonzo retired after the 2020 season, while right guard Matt Glowinski left as a free agent following the 2021 season, leaving their offensive line in much worse shape for 2022. Rookie left tackle Bernhard Raimann was pretty solid in 11 starts in year one (73.3 PFF grade) and he has a good chance to keep that up in year two in 2023, but they really struggled to replace Glowinski last season.

Will Fries (9 starts) and Danny Pinter (3 starts) had PFF grades of just 58.4 and 44.7 respectively and their only even average starting right guard was Braden Smith, the talented right tackle who the Colts kicked inside for a couple starts. Smith is a versatile player, but he is more valuable at right tackle and his replacement at right tackle was Matt Pryor, who made 9 starts total last season and finished with a 44.9 PFF grade. The Colts also didn’t do anything to upgrade the right guard position this off-season, leaving Fries and Pinter in competition for the role, assuming Smith stays outside.

Fries and Pinter were drafted in the 7th round in 2021 and the 5th round in 2020 respectively and made 0 and 4 career starts respectively prior to last season, so it’s unlikely either one suddenly breaks out as even an average starter. The Colts did add BYU offensive tackle Blake Freeland in the 4th round of the draft and he could be an upgrade over Matt Pryor, who is no longer with the team, but he would likely struggle if forced into action at right tackle, in the case that Braden Smith moves back to guard. Smith has received grades of 73.3, 79.8, 80.1, 80.6, and 75.5 from PFF in the five seasons of his career respectively, since going in the 2nd round in 2018, and he’ll play at a high level regardless of where he plays, but he’s more valuable at right tackle. Regardless of where he plays, the Colts figure to continue having at least one hole in the starting lineup.

Another problem for the Colts on the offensive line last season was a substandard year from left guard Quenton Nelson. The 6th overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, Nelson immediately broke out as one of the best guards in the league, with PFF grades of 81.6, 91.2, and 87.5 in his first three seasons in the league, but that fell to 69.1 in an injury plagued 2021 season and didn’t improve in a healthier 2022, when he had a career worst 68.4 PFF grade. Nelson is only in his age 27 season and is theoretically still in the prime of his career, but he hasn’t shown his top form in two seasons and at this point it might be unrealistic to expect him to bounce all the way back in 2023. I would expect him to be better in 2023 than he was in 2021 and 2022, but not as good as he used to be.

Ryan Kelly also hasn’t shown his top form in a few seasons, as the 2016 first round pick surpassed a 70 grade on PFF in three of his first four seasons in the league, but has followed those grades up with 68.0, 56.9, and 64.3 over the past three seasons. Kelly now goes into his age 30 season and he’s pretty banged up in his career, missing 17 games in 7 seasons in the league, so it’s very likely his best days are behind him. 

Kelly should still remain at least a capable starter, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he continued declining further and he probably doesn’t have a huge upside at this stage of his career. This offensive line isn’t what it used to be and it will have at least one big position of weakness on the right side, but it’s not a bad offensive line either and they could be better than a year ago if they get a bounce back year from Nelson and if the young left tackle Raimann continues his above average play into year two.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

The Colts’ receiving corps was also a problem last season, although that was not a surprise, as their receiving corps were a problem the year before as well. Michael Pittman remained as the #1 receiver and the 2020 2nd round pick has posted slash lines of 88/1082/6 and 99/925/4 respectively in that role over the past two seasons, but those have come on target totals of 129 (16th in the NFL) and 141 (12th in the NFL). Quarterback play has been part of the problem and Pittman is a talented player who is still only going into his age 26 season, but he’s probably more of a high end #2 receiver than someone who is a true #1, as evidenced by his poor efficiency in that role over the past two seasons.

Unfortunately, Pittman will have to remain the #1 receiver for lack of a better option, with the Colts not doing anything to significantly improve this group this off-season. In fact, the Colts actually lost their #2 receiver from a year ago Parris Campbell, who was decent if unspectacular with a 63/623/3 slash line on 91 targets. The Colts won’t miss Campbell too much though, as they have 2022 2nd round pick Alec Pierce in line for a bigger role in year two and they also signed veteran Isaiah McKenzie and used a 3rd round pick on North Carolina’s Josh Downs to compete for the #3 receiver job.

Pierce was the #3 receiver last year (41/593/2 on 78 targets) and he was mediocre with a 1.24 yards per route run average, but he has the talent to be better in a bigger role in year two, although that’s not a guarantee. McKenzie, meanwhile, is a 6-year veteran who has mostly been a return man and a situational depth receiver (his 42/423/4 slash line last year was a career high), but he has a decent 1.31 yards per route run average over the past three seasons combined (0.99 over his first three seasons combined). The Colts are probably hoping the rookie Downs can beat the veteran McKenzie out for the 3rd receiver job, but Downs could be overmatched in year one and McKenzie figures to at least have somewhat of a role for this team even if he doesn’t end up beating out Downs.

The Colts also didn’t get much out of their tight ends last season. Mo Alie-Cox (584 snaps), Kylen Granson (407 snaps), and Jelani Woods (333 snaps) all saw action, but none were that productive, finishing with slash lines of 19/189/3, 31/302/0, and 25/312/3 respectively. The Colts didn’t add to this group this off-season, so they will be counting on getting more out of these three in 2023. Alie-Cox has never been much more than a blocking specialist, averaging a decent 1.32 yards per route run in limited passing game action, but not surpassing a 31/394/2 slash line in any of his six seasons in the league, and, now going into his age 30 season, it’s very unlikely he has any untapped potential, so I would expect more of the same from him in 2023, at best.

Granson was a 4th round pick in 2021, but he has averages of just 1.13 yards per route run and 1.31 yards per route run thus far in his career and, while he could have further untapped potential, he’s unlikely to ever break out as a starting caliber tight end. Woods has by far the most upside of the bunch, as the 2022 3rd round pick flashed a lot of potential with an impressive 1.51 yards per route run average as a rookie. 

Woods struggled as a blocker and will probably need to improve in that aspect to become a true starter for this team, but, at the very least, he should get more pass game opportunities in year two, after proving his upside in year one. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he had a mini breakout year in the first extended playing time of his career. He’s one of a couple promising young pass catchers the Colts have, but they’re still unlikely to be significantly better in the receiving corps than they were a year ago, meaning this is likely to remain a position of weakness overall.

Grade: B-

Interior Defenders

While the Colts’ offense was a huge problem in 2022, finishing dead last in offensive DVOA, their defense was actually not bad, ranking 14th in defensive DVOA. The strength of this defense was probably their interior defenders, led by arguably their best defensive player, DeForest Buckner. A first round pick in 2016, Buckner quickly developed into one of the best players in the league with the 49ers, posting grades of 71.6, 81.3, 79.3, and 78.8 in his first four seasons in the league respectively. 

Unable to keep all of their talented players long-term, the 49ers sent Buckner to the Colts for a first round pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. The Colts also gave Buckner a 4-year, 84 million dollar extension upon acquiring him, which makes him still the 5th highest paid interior defender in the league, so they paid a steep price for him in total, between the extension and the draft compensation that they sent to the 49ers, but it’s probably been worth it, as Buckner has continued his high level play with the Colts, posting grades of 89.7, 71.9, and 82.3 over the past three seasons respectively

Buckner is also still only in his age 29 season, so I wouldn’t expect any significant drop off yet. 

He isn’t bad against the run, but he’s at his best as a pass rusher, with 53 sacks, 95 hits, and a 10.0% pressure rate for his career, including 8 sacks, 14 hits, and a 10.8% pressure rate last season. He’s also remarkably durable, missing just two games in 7 years in the league, despite playing an average of 53.6 snaps per game as a true every down defensive lineman. I would expect more of the same from him in 2023. Their other starting interior defender Grover Stewart isn’t as good as Buckner, but he’s an above average starter in his own right. 

The 6-4 315 pound Stewart is at his best against the run, earning above average grades from PFF for his run defense in all six seasons in the league, but the 2017 4th round pick has developed into an every down player and a decent pass rusher as well, averaging 667 snaps per season over the past four seasons, while not missing a game due to injury and totaling 8.5 sacks, 13 hits, and a 5.7% pressure rate as a pass rusher over that stretch. Overall, he’s received grades from PFF of 65.8, 68.1, 72.6, and 69.0 respectively over those four seasons and, while he’s now going into his age 30 season and should start to decline soon, he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet and could easily remain a solid starter for at least another season. He’s an unspectacular player, but his run defense makes him a good complement to Buckner, who is a dominant pass rusher.

Depth isn’t as important to the Colts in this position group because Buckner and Stewart play every down and rarely get hurt, but the Colts still did well to improve their depth this off-season, after Eric Johnson (47.4 PFF grade in 127 snaps) and Byron Cowart (30.4 PFF grade in 229 snaps) struggled mightily in that role last season. Northwestern’s Adetomiwa Adebawore was added in the 4th round of the draft and, while he’s probably too raw to make a big impact as a rookie, it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade as a reserve. 

The Colts also added veteran Taven Bryan in free agency and, while he has been middling at best on an average of 447 snaps per season in five seasons in the league, he should be a good depth option for this team in a rotational role. Eric Johnson is also still on the roster and the 2022 5th round pick could be better in year two, but he won’t be guaranteed a role in what is a deeper position group than a year ago. This is a strong position group overall. 

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

The Colts leader in sacks a year ago was edge defender Yannick Ngakoue, who had 9.5, along with 11 quarterback hits and a 10.1% pressure rate. Ngakoue is no longer with the team, but, despite his production, he won’t really be missed, as Ngakoue struggled so much against the run last season that he actually ended up with a 51.4 PFF grade overall, despite his pass rush production. Ngakoue remains unsigned as of this writing, suggesting the rest of the league isn’t fooled by his sack total either.

Ngakoue’s replacement Samson Ebukam is an underwhelming player, but he’s a better all around player and it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over Ngakoue if he plays like he has the past two seasons, receiving PFF grades of 66.8 and 69.1 on snap counts of 554 and 559 respectively, while totaling 9.5 sacks, 13 hits, and a 10.7% pressure rate as a pass rusher over the two seasons combined. The 2017 4th round is an unspectacular option who has never finished with a PFF grade higher than last season’s 69.1 for a season, but he’s only once been below 63 for a season, so he’s a consistently decent option.

Ebukam might not play the 733 snaps in 15 games that Ngakoue played last season, but Ngakoue was overall a liability across those snaps and the Colts could get more out of the rest of their edge defenders, even if it’s the same group as a year ago. Kwity Paye is a third year player who could easily have the best year of his career if he can stay healthy. The 2021 1st round pick has been solid if unspectacular thus far through two seasons in his career, posting PFF grades of 69.6 in both seasons, but missing seven games between the two seasons. He still has the upside to be better going forward and, even if he isn’t, the Colts would still benefit from having him on the field more, after he was limited to 547 snaps in 12 games last season.

Dayo Odeyingbo is another third year player who could take a step forward in 2023. A second round pick who could have gone in the first if not for injuries, Odeyingbo didn’t play much in an injury plagued rookie season, seeing just 173 snaps, but that increased to 519 last season as he stayed healthy for all 17 games. Odeyingbo has been solid if unspectacular thus far in his career, posting grades of 61.4 and 62.6, but he has the potential to be better in his third season in the league in 2023, along with Paye.

The Colts also could get a healthier year out of reserve edge defender Tyquan Lewis, after he was limited to 273 snaps in 7 games last season, although based on his history of injuries, that’s not a guarantee, as Lewis has missed at least 7 games in 4 of 5 seasons in the league, missing 34 total. Lewis was a 2nd round pick back in 2018, but, in part due to injuries, he’s never developed into even a solid rotational player, posting grades higher than 60 on PFF in just two seasons in his career, with a 56.3 PFF grade in 2022. Even if he’s healthier in 2023, he’s unlikely to make a huge impact in a positive way. 

One thing Lewis does bring to the table is versatility, as the 6-3 277 pounder has the size to line up on the interior in obvious passing situations, but he’s an unspectacular player regardless of where he lines up. This isn’t a bad position group and they could easily be better than a year ago with Paye and Odeyingbo going into their third seasons in the league, with Ebukam replacing Ngakoue, and with Lewis possibly being healthier, but this group also lacks a high upside and doesn’t have any high end players.

Grade: B

Linebackers

The Colts had four defensive players play more than 500 snaps and finish with a grade higher than 70 on PFF last season and three of them left this off-season (DeForest Buckner is the exception), but, despite that, the Colts have a good chance to remain a decent defense in 2023. The biggest reason for that is the expected return of every down linebacker Shaq Leonard, who missed all but 74 mediocre snaps in an injury plagued 2022 season and whose return could offset the absence of other key players who departed this off-season.

That’s because Leonard is one of the best players in the league at his position when healthy, finishing 6th, 7th, 10th, and 7th among off ball linebackers on PFF in his first four seasons in the league prior to last season, while posting grades of 81.6, 78.7, 72.6, and 79.0 respectively. Leonard is coming off of a major injury, but he’s only going into his age 28 season, so he’s still theoretically in his prime and, if healthy, he has a great chance to bounce back at least close to his old form, which would be a huge boost for this defense.

Leonard’s return will be especially important to this defense because one of the key players the Colts lost this off-season was linebacker Bobby Okereke, who had a 73.3 PFF grade on 970 snaps in Leonard’s absence last season, before signing with the Giants this off-season. Okereke being gone means the Colts will continue giving a significant role to Zaire Franklin, even with Leonard back. Franklin actually led this position group with 1,136 snaps played last season, coming off the field on defense just five times all season, but he posted a mediocre 57.0 PFF grade in the first extended action of his career and the 2018 7th round pick is likely to be mediocre again in a significant role in 2023.

The Colts also could give a bigger role to EJ Speed this season, after re-signing him to a 2-year, 8 million dollar deal to keep him out of free agency this off-season. Speed was just a 5th round pick by the Colts in 2019 and he played just 181 snaps in his first three seasons in the league combined, but he played 316 snaps in 2022 and flashed a lot of potential, even if in very limited action, finishing with a 78.4 PFF grade. 

Speed is still unproven and a projection to a larger role and he probably wouldn’t be that efficient again if given more playing time, but his contract suggests the Colts at least expect him to have somewhat of a role, even as just the 3rd linebacker behind Leonard and Franklin. This is a strong group led by Shaq Leonard, who is one of the best off ball linebackers in the league when healthy and whose return should more than make up for the loss of Bobby Okereke, but the rest of this group is still uncertain, with Franklin being a mediocre option and Speed still being highly inexperienced.

Grade: A-

Secondary

One of the key players the Colts lost on defense this off-season is safety Rodney McLeod, who finished the 2022 season with a 80.1 PFF grade on 1,034 snaps. That performance kind of came out of nowhere though, as it was a career best grade for the 11-year veteran and, with McLeod now going into his age 33 season, it was understandable they moved on from him this off-season, but he’ll still be missed. Julian Blackmon and Rodney Thomas will likely be the two starting safeties in 2023 with McLeod gone and both saw significant action (720 snaps each) last season with the Colts frequently using three safeties in sub packages, but Blackmon was middling with a 62.3 PFF grade, while Thomas struggled with a 54.3 PFF grade, so it’s unlikely that either one is as good in 2023 as McLeod was in 2022.

Blackmon was a 3rd round pick in 2020 and has made 31 starts in three seasons in the league, but he’s been middling at best with PFF grades of 60.8, 60.7, and 62.3, and durability has been an issue for him, costing him 15 games in three seasons in the league. He theoretically has the upside to take a step forward in his 4th season in the league in 2023, but that’s far from a guarantee and he could easily miss more time with injury even if he does take a step forward. Thomas, meanwhile, was just a 7th round rookie in 2022, so his struggles were predictable and he could be better in year two, but that’s far from a guarantee and he could face competition for his job from fellow second year player, Nick Cross. 

Cross was a higher draft pick, selected in the third round, and could have more upside than Thomas long-term as a result, but he played just 122 underwhelming snaps as a rookie, spending most of the year behind the much lower drafted Thomas on the depth chart, so he’s far from a guarantee to be an upgrade even if he does win the starting job. The Colts also added California’s Daniel Scott in the 5th round of this year’s draft, but he will almost definitely spend his rookie year as a reserve barring significant injuries ahead of him on the depth chart.

Stephon Gilmore is also a big loss from this defense in 2022, as he finished the year with a 79.1 PFF grade on 1,064 snaps as the Colts’ top cornerback. Gilmore was owed 10 million for his age 33 season in 2023, so it made sense for the Colts, who are in something of a rebuild, to move on from him this off-season, but they only got a 5th round pick from the Cowboys in return for him and they will definitely miss him in the short-term. 

In Gilmore’s absence, the Colts will hope that 2020 6th round pick Isaiah Rodgers can continue his impressive play in limited action from the past two seasons into an every down starting role, after earning a 70.7 PFF grade on 525 snaps in 2021 and a 82.1 PFF grade on 434 snaps in 2022. He’s a projection to that larger role and probably won’t be as efficient as an every down player as he was as a part-time player, but he could still easily be an above average starting option for them. The Colts also added Kansas State’s Julius Brents in the second round of the draft to help them replace Gilmore and he figures to have a significant role in year one, at least playing in sub packages with Rodgers and veteran Kenny Moore. 

Moore used to be an above average starter, earning PFF grades of 71.3, 75.5, and 74.8 on 911 snaps, 631 snaps, and 952 snaps in 2018, 2019, and 2020 respectively. However, he’s fallen off in a big way with grades of 66.6 and 55.7 respectively on snap counts of 1,062 and 774 over the past two seasons. He’s only going into his age 29 season, so he isn’t totally over the hill, but after two down years, it’s likely his best days are behind him at this point. That doesn’t mean he can’t be better in 2023 than he was in 2022, which was a career worst year, in part due to injuries, but he is unlikely to be more than an average starter in 2023. This secondary isn’t bad, but it will be very hard for them to be as good as a year ago without Stephon Gilmore and Rodney McLeod.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

By default, the Colts should be better on offense this year than they were a year ago, but they still have a lot of problems on that side of the ball and they will be quarterbacked by the very raw Anthony Richardson. Meanwhile, their defense lost a few key players in free agency this off-season and, while Shaq Leonard is expected back from injury, they are pretty top heavy on defense behind Leonard and Buckner and would be in trouble on that side of the ball if they lost either one to injury for an extended period of time. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 6-11, 3rd in AFC South

Los Angeles Rams 2023 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews, Rams

Quarterback

The Rams won the Super Bowl in the 2021 season, after finishing the regular season with a 12-5 record and the 5th highest DVOA in the league, but repeating was always going to be difficult for them. Not only are repeat champions rare, with none in the last two decades or so, the Rams went all in for a few years to try to win a Super Bowl, which worked out, but it left them with very little long-term flexibility. During the 2022 off-season, the Rams had no choice but to move on from several key contributors for financial reasons and, not having their own first round pick for the 6th straight year, they didn’t have much draft capital to rebuild their roster either.

All that being said, I don’t think anyone expected what happened to the Rams in 2022. Not only did they miss the key contributors they lost from their 2021 team, but they also had arguably the worst injury luck in the league, which diminished this team significantly and led to them finishing just 5-12, the worst record ever by a defending Super Bowl champion. In terms of adjusted games lost, the Rams had the second most in the NFL and, if you take into account that those injuries disproportionately affected their most important players, the Rams were probably impacted by injuries more than any other team in the league last season.

It’s easy to see how the Rams could be significantly better in 2023 with better health. Not only does adjusted games lost as a stat tend to regress to the mean, but the Rams were actually one of the healthiest teams in the league for years prior to last season, ranking in the top-10 in fewest adjusted games lost to injury in each of the previous six seasons. However, it’s not as easy as saying the Rams will be healthier this year so they’ll be back to being contenders. Not only did the Rams lose key contributors from this Super Bowl team last off-season, they lost even more this off-season and they were once again without their own first round pick, which was 6th overall as a result of the Rams’ struggles last season.

I’ll get into the differences between this team’s roster and their Super Bowl team’s roster later, but the Rams at least still have quarterback Matt Stafford, who completed 67.2% of his passes for an average of 8.13 YPA, 41 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions and earned a 80.7 grade from PFF. That was nothing new for Stafford, who had received a PFF of 77 or higher in each of his five previous seasons prior to 2021 as well, while completing 65.2% of his passes for an average of 7.55 YPA, 119 touchdowns, and 46 interceptions over that stretch.

However, there is reason to be concerned that Stafford might not play at his highest level again in 2023. Not only is he now heading into his age 35 season, but he’s coming off of a very disappointing 2022 campaign in which he received just a 67.0 PFF grade, his worst since 2015, and completed 68.0% of his passes for an average of 6.89 YPA, 10 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions, a 87.4 QB rating that is his worst since 2014. Stafford also was limited to just nine starts by head and neck injuries that at one point left his long-term future somewhat in doubt.

It’s possible Stafford could return to form in 2023 and he’s not totally over the hill yet, but I think it’s more likely that his best days are behind him. That doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll struggle this year, as even at less than his best he can still be an above average starting quarterback, and he should play more games and be more effective than a year ago, but there’s more reason for concern with Stafford than there was two years ago.

Given Stafford’s age and recent injury history, backup quarterback could end up being an important position for the Rams this season. Last season, they tried three different options, with internal options Bryce Perkins (53.7 QB rating) and John Wolford (64.6 QB rating) both struggling, before veteran Baker Mayfield was claimed on waivers, giving the Rams a more reliable option down the stretch (86.4 QB rating). Mayfield is no longer with the team though and the only veteran option the Rams added this off-season was Brett Rypien, who has a 62.9 QB rating in three career starts in four seasons in the league, making him a very underwhelming option.

The Rams did add Stetson Bennett in the 4th round of the draft and are probably hoping he can beat out Rypien for the #2 quarterback job. Bennett would probably struggle if forced into significant action as a rookie, but he’s more NFL ready than most 4th round quarterbacks, so he might not be a bad option and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he developed into a capable backup long-term, even if he’s probably not a real candidate to be Stafford’s long-term successor. Either way, this team will obviously be in better shape if Stafford can stay healthy the whole year, even if he doesn’t play quite up to his usual standards.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

Not only did the Rams lose Stafford for the year mid-season in 2022, but they also lost his top receiver Cooper Kupp for the year right around the same time, a devastating blow that left this offense completely anemic for the rest of the season. The Rams were 4-4 going into the week 10 game against the Cardinals in which Kupp got hurt and they wound up losing 8 of their final 9 games as a result of the injuries to Kupp and Stafford. Not only is Kupp one of the best wide receivers in the league, receiving PFF grades of 80.8, 92.3, and 86.3 in 2020, 2021, and 2022 respectively, while averaging 2.53 yards per route run, but the Rams didn’t have another reliable pass catching option behind him on the depth chart, with Odell Beckham, the #2 wide receiver on their Super Bowl team not getting retained due to injuries of his own.

The Rams tried to replace Beckham with Allen Robinson, giving him a 3-year, 46.5 million dollar deal in free agency last off-season, even though he struggled mightily in 2021, with a 38/410/1 slash line and 1.13 yards per route run, but that move proved to be a disaster, as Robinson did not return to form in his new home with the Rams, finishing with a 33/339/3 slash line and 0.93 yards per route run. This off-season, the Rams gave up on Robinson, sending him to the Steelers for a swap of late round picks and eating 10.25 million of his 15.25 million dollar guaranteed salary in the process.

Robinson wasn’t replaced though, so the Rams will once again be highly reliant on Cooper Kupp staying healthy, without another good wide receiver on this depth chart. Kupp should still be expected to be one of the best wide receivers in the league in 2023, but he’s heading into his age 30 season and coming off of a major injury, so he might not be quite as good as he has been in recent years and, even if he is, the Rams’ lack of another good wide receiver will hurt this offense. 

Van Jefferson and Bennett Skowronek are probably penciled in as the other starting wide receivers, but Jefferson hasn’t shown much in three seasons since the Rams selected him in the 2nd round in 2020, averaging 1.38 yards per route run, while Skowronek is a 2021 7th round pick who averaged just 0.91 yards per route run in the first extended action of his career in 2022 in Kupp’s absence. The Rams also have 2021 2nd round pick Tutu Atwell and used a 5th round pick in this year’s draft on Puka Nacua, but Atwell has played just 318 snaps on offense in two seasons in the league and might be too small at 5-9 165 to be an every down wide receiver, while Nacua is probably too raw to contribute in a significant way as a rookie.

With Kupp missing about half the season, the Rams were led in targets by tight end Tyler Higbee, but he wasn’t efficient with those targets, turning 108 targets into a 72/620/3 slash line, an average of 5.74 yards per target. Higbee is a solid starting tight end who has received a grade of 60 or higher from PFF in six straight seasons, but he’s also averaged just 1.40 yards per route run for his career and shouldn’t be a huge part of their passing game. Without another good wide receiver behind Kupp on the depth chart, Higbee could end up finishing second on the team with targets, which would not be a good thing for this offense.

The Rams don’t use a lot of two tight end sets, even when Kupp was hurt last season, with #2 tight end Brycen Hopkins playing just 173 snaps. Hopkins has played just 234 snaps total since entering the league as a 4th round pick in 2020, but could remain the #2 tight end in this offense. His biggest competition will come from Hunter Long, a 2021 3rd round pick that the Rams acquired via trade this offense. Long played just 184 snaps in two seasons with the Dolphins and has shown very little, but the Rams seem to still believe in his upside and he could be better in his new home, still only in his third season in the league. Either way, the Rams backup tight end won’t have a big role in this passing game, which once again lacks a reliable #2 option after Cooper Kupp.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

The Rams’ offensive line was also significantly worse in 2022 than 2021. They were already going to be worse heading into the season, after losing left tackle Andrew Whitworth (86.1 PFF grade in 2021) to retirement and right guard Austin Corbett (68.8 PFF grade in 2021) in free agency, but, making matters worse, they lost replacement left tackle Joe Noteboom, starting center Brian Allen, and left guard David Edwards to injuries that limited them to just 325 snaps, 373 snaps, and 230 snaps respectively in 2022.

Edwards wasn’t retained this off-season, meaning the Rams will be without three of their five starters from their 2021 offensive line even if they can stay healthier this season. The Rams did at least make upgrading their offensive line a priority this off-season, though they did so without much flexibility to improve this roster, using their first draft pick, 36th overall, on TCU’s Steve Avila, who ended up being their only selection in the top-70 picks. 

Even as a rookie, Avila is likely to start, due to the lack of a better option. With David Edwards missing most of last season, the Rams top guards in terms of snaps played were Matt Skura (466 snaps), Alaric Jackson (422 snaps), Oday Aboushi (339 snaps), and Bobby Evans (314 snaps), but Skura, Aboushi, and Evans are no longer on the team and, while Jackson was decent with a 64.1 PFF grade, he’s a converted swing tackle who was only playing guard out of necessity and the Rams seem to prefer the 2021 undrafted free agent at tackle long-term.

It’s possible Jackson could compete for the other starting guard job out of necessity, as could Coleman Shelton, who mostly played center last season in the absence of Brian Allen, but who has the versatility to play any of the interior offensive line spots. However, Shelton earned just a 58.0 PFF grade in the first significant action of the 2018 undrafted free agent’s career last season, so he would be an underwhelming option, and it seems more likely that the Rams will keep Jackson at tackle and start 2022 3rd round pick Logan Bruss at the other guard spot opposite Avila.

Bruss could have been a starter as a rookie and, after Edwards got hurt he almost definitely would have been, but he ended up missing his whole rookie season with injuries of his own. He still has the upside to develop into a solid starter long-term, but he’s completely inexperienced and, even if he does become a long-term starter, that doesn’t mean he won’t have growing pains in his first year in that role. Bruss and Avila have upside at the guard position, which is more than you could say about most of the guards who started for the Rams in 2022, but with neither of them ever having played an NFL snap, there’s downside here as well. 

Noteboom and Allen return to starting roles at left tackle and center respectively after their injury plagued 2022 seasons. Noteboom is still pretty inexperienced, starting his career as a reserve behind Andrew Whitworth and getting hurt in his first full season as the starter in 2022, but he’s made 23 starts over the past four seasons, so he’s not totally inexperienced, and he’s finished with PFF grades higher than 60 in each of the past three seasons, including a 67.0 PFF grade in 2022 before the injury. His return from a torn achilles complicates things for him, especially since he also has had a torn ACL (2019) in his past, and, even if he’s at his best, he’ll still be a big downgrade from what Whitworth was for them before retiring, but Noteboom’s return will still be a welcome one for a team that struggled to find a consistent left tackle in his absence last season.

Allen’s return will also be a welcome one, but it’s far from a guarantee that he’ll match his 2021 level of play, when he was PFF’s 5th ranked center with a 80.2 grade, as he has PFF grades of 58.6 and 63.8 in his other two seasons as a starter and he has a pretty extensive injury history, missing 32 games over the past four seasons combined. It won’t be hard for Allen to be an upgrade on Coleman Shelton, but I wouldn’t expect him to play at the same level as he did in 2021.

The only Rams offensive lineman to start most of the season at the same position in 2022 as he did in 2021 is right tackle Rob Havenstein, who was a bright spot on this offensive line with a 73.2 PFF grade in 17 starts. Havenstein remains in that same spot this season and should give the Rams more of the same, having finished with a PFF grade of 70 or higher in six of his eight seasons in the league. His age is a bit of a concern in his age 31 season and he could begin declining this season, but, even if he’s not quite at his best, he should remain a solid starter at the very least. 

Overall, this offensive line should be better than a year ago, but that could be largely by default, after how bad they were upfront a year ago. The Rams’ starting guards are both completely inexperienced, Noteboom and Allen are coming off significant injuries with extensive injury histories, Havenstein is on the wrong side of 30, and their depth is suspect, so there is still plenty of reason for concern with this group, even if they have the upside to be a lot better than last year’s injury riddled group.

Grade: B

Running Backs

One bright spot for this offense in 2022 was the return of running back Cam Akers from a torn Achilles that cost him almost all of the 2021 season. Akers’ 4.18 YPC average on 188 carries doesn’t seem that impressive, but his 54% carry success rate ranked 12th in the NFL, so he did an above average job keeping this offense on schedule, despite all of the problems around him on this unit. Overall, Akers finished the season as PFF’s 16th ranked running back overall. A third round pick in 2020, Akers also rushed for 4.31 YPC with a 48% carry success rate on 145 carries, albeit on a much better offense as a rookie, with a lost season due to injury in between. Still only in his age 24 season, another year removed from the injury, Akers could have another strong season in 2023, this time with likely more room to run than he had a year ago.

Akers isn’t much of a contributor in the passing game, with a 0.89 yards per route run average for his career, leaving Darrell Henderson to be their primary passing down back last season, but he was underwhelming in that role, averaging 0.51 yards per route run, 4.04 yards per carry on 70 carries, and managing just a 57.7 PFF grade, leading to the Rams not retaining him this off-season. With Henderson gone, the passing down and #2 back role will likely fall to 2022 5th round pick Kyren Williams, who played just 142 snaps in an injury plagued rookie season. 

Williams showed promise in limited action (67.2 PFF grade) and has some upside if he can stay healthy, but is mostly their #2 back for lack of a better option. The Rams also added Mississippi’s Zach Evans in the 6th round of this year’s draft, but he had just 30 catches in his collegiate career, so he’s more of a depth option than a realistic candidate to be their passing down back. It’s also possible Akers sees a bigger workload and more passing game work in his second season back from injury, even if he’s not much of an asset in the passing game. Akers is an above average lead back as a runner, but he’s not a true feature back because of his lack of pass catching ability and depth is suspect at this position, which hurts their overall grade.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

As much as the Rams have lost on offense since their Super Bowl win, they’ve actually lost a lot more on defense. In fact, of the 15 players who played at least 250 snaps on this defense in 2021, amazingly just three remain on the roster as of this writing. At the edge defender position, the Rams first started by losing Von Miller in free agency last off-season, after the mid-season trade acquisition had a 83.6 PFF grade on 434 snaps in 8 regular season games as the Rams’ top edge defender in 2021. The Rams then followed that by cutting their 2nd best edge defender in 2021, Leonard Floyd, this off-season, a move that saved them 15.5 million dollars. 

Floyd wasn’t outstanding in 2022 or anything, with a PFF grade of 65.7, but he played 932 snaps in Miller’s absence and the only reinforcements the Rams added this off-season came from the draft, with Tennessee’s Byron Young added in the 3rd round, Appalachian State’s Nick Hampton added in the 5th round, and Nebraska’s Ochaun Mathis being added in the 6th round. Even as rookies, at least a couple of those three players will likely have to play significant roles in year one, as could 2022 7th round pick Daniel Hardy, who played 41 just underwhelming snaps as a rookie. 

Terrell Lewis (332 snaps) and Justin Hollins (307 snaps) saw somewhat significant action last season, but struggled (PFF grades of 46.1 and 54.4 respectively) and, like Leonard Floyd, they are also not back with the team in 2023, leaving Michael Hoecht as the only even somewhat experienced edge defender on the roster. Hoecht showed potential with a 65.4 PFF grade on 409 snaps in 2022, but he was undrafted in 2020 and had only played 126 career snaps before moving into the starting lineup in week 12 of last season, so it would be asking a lot of him to be their top edge defender in 2023, which it looks like he will be by default. This is arguably the thinnest group of edge defenders in the league, almost entirely relying on very inexperienced young players, none of whom were premium draft picks. 

Grade: C-

Interior Defenders

The Rams didn’t have as many injuries on defense (13th most adjusted games lost) as they had on offense (first in adjusted games lost), but they were without stud interior defender Aaron Donald for the final 6 games of the season. Donald had never missed a game with injury prior to that, despite averaging 897 snaps per season in the previous 7 seasons, and getting a full season from him will be a boost to this defense, but Donald is now heading into his age 32 season and showed some small signs of decline last year even before getting hurt.

Donald still finished with a 90.5 PFF grade, playing the run at a high level and totaling 5 sacks, 7 hits, and a 10.1% pressure rate, but Donald has been so dominant in his career that last season was actually his lowest PFF grade since his rookie season, with seven straight #1 finishes among interior defenders from 2015-2021, while totaling 89 sacks, 124 hits, and a 15.6% pressure rate over that stretch. At this point, Donald’s best days are probably behind him and he could easily decline further in 2023, but, even at less than his best, Donald should still be one of the best players in the league at his position and, even if he declines from last season, the Rams should still benefit from having him on the field for more games this season.

Donald is one of the three key contributors remaining on this defense from their Super Bowl team, but the rest of this position group has completely changed since then. This off-season it was Greg Gaines (731 snaps) and A’Shawn Robinson (360 snaps) who weren’t retained, leaving the Rams to rely more heavily on reserves Marquise Copeland (343 snaps) and Jonah Williams (342 snaps) and third year players Bobby Brown (164 snaps) and Earnest Brown (136 snaps), as well as 3rd round rookie Kobie Turner.

None of the aforementioned options have any real experience. Copeland and Williams are undrafted free agents from the 2019 and 2020 class respectively and had played just 111 career snaps and 97 career snaps respectively before being decent in limited action last season, while Bobby and Earnest Brown have played just 186 and 136 career snaps total, since being selected in the 4th and 5th round respectively in 2021. It’s unclear if any of them can handle a larger workload without being a liability, so this is a very questionable position group outside of Donald, who obviously elevates the group as a whole in a significant way even if he isn’t quite at his best anymore.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The one big addition the Rams made on defense from 2021 to 2022 was off ball linebacker Bobby Wagner and, between Wagner excelling with a 90.7 PFF grade on 1,079 snaps and one of their few holdovers from their Super Bowl defense Ernest Jones having a solid year with a 63.6 grade on 723 snaps, linebacker was a position of strength for the Rams in 2022. However, Wagner was cut this off-season to save 11.5 million and was not replaced, which will be a massive loss. 

With Wagner gone, Jones will become their top linebacker and will probably play more snaps than he did a year ago, perhaps about as many as Wagner did in 2022. A 3rd round pick in 2021, Jones has developed into a capable starter, having a solid season last year after posting a 59.3 PFF grade on 440 snaps as a rookie, and he has the potential to be more, now going into his third season in the league, but he could be a little overstretched in Bobby Wagner’s old role and the Rams now have minimal depth behind Jones on the depth chart. 

In fact, the Rams second returning linebacker in terms of snaps played last season is Christian Rozeboom, who played just 8 snaps last season, the first defensive action of the 2020 undrafted free agent’s career. Without any additions made to this group this off-season, Rozeboom will compete for a starting role with 2022 undrafted free agent Jake Hummel, who didn’t play a snap as a rookie, and 2023 undrafted free agents DeAndre Square, Ryan Smenda, and Kelechi Anyabelachi, in a very thin position group.

Grade: C

Secondary

In 2021, the Rams top-4 cornerbacks in terms of snaps played were Jalen Ramsey (1,037 snaps), Darious Williams (924 snaps), David Long (517 snaps), and Donte Deayon (467 snaps), but none are on the roster anymore, with the biggest loss being Ramsey, a bright spot on this defense with a PFF grade of 86.4 in 16 starts in 2022, after a 84.5 grade in 17 starts in 2021, who was traded for a 3rd round pick this off-season to clear 17 million in salary. 

In their place are 2021 4th round pick Robert Rochell, who was 5th on the team with 233 snaps played as a rookie, but who struggled in that limited rookie year action and only played 27 snaps last season, and second year cornerbacks Cobie Durant (4th round) and Derion Kendrick (6th round). Kendrick struggled as a rookie with a PFF grade of 43.7 on 483 snaps, while Durant showed a lot more promise with a 73.3 grade, albeit on only 281 snaps. 

Durant at least has upside but he’s hard to project as a de facto #1 cornerback in his first year as a starter, while Kendrick and Rochell have shown little in the limited action they’ve received thus far in their careers and were not premium draft picks. They’re likely all locked into roles though, with the Rams not having any other cornerbacks on their roster who have ever played a defensive snap in their careers. The Rams used a 6th round pick in this year’s draft on Tre’vius Hodges-Tomlinson, but he would almost definitely struggle in a significant role if forced into one as a rookie, as would undrafted rookies Jordan Jones and Collin Duncan, who could also compete for reserve roles in what is another very thin position group on this defense.

The Rams at least bring back safety Jordan Fuller, who is the other one of the three significant contributors who is still on the roster from their 2021 team. That’s a good thing, considering the 2020 6th round pick had a 74.3 grade on 1,028 snaps during that 2021 season. Fuller missed most of last season with injury, limited to 90 snaps total, so his return is actually a rare positive on this defense going into 2023. He’s a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he did in 2021, but he also had a solid 63.6 grade on 708 snaps as a rookie in 2020 and, only in his age 25 season, has a good chance to remain an above average starter long-term.

Taylor Rapp (76.2 PFF grade on 976 snaps) and Nick Scott (54.2 PFF grade on 984 snaps) were their starters at safety for most of last season with Fuller hurt, but are no longer with the team. Without any good options behind them on the depth chart and with no significant additions at this position this off-season, the other safety spot is yet another position where the Rams are extremely thin. Second year players Russ Yeast and Quentin Lake are the only other safeties on the roster with any NFL playing time, but Yeast and Lake were drafted in only the 7th and 6th round respectively and their NFL experience consists of 113 and 63 nondescript snaps respectively as rookies. Both are likely to struggle if they have to play significant action and one of them will almost definitely have to, with their next best option being 7th round rookie Jason Taylor, who would also likely struggle if forced into significant action. Like much of this defense, this secondary is very thin.

Grade: C+

Conclusion

At first glance, the Rams may look like they have bounce back potential in 2023. They are likely to be significantly healthier than a year ago, they’re just a season removed from winning the Super Bowl, and they still have stars Matt Stafford, Aaron Donald, And Cooper Kupp. However, aside from those three, not much else is the same, with just 9 of the 28 players who played at least 250 snaps on either their offense or defense in 2021 still on the team, including just 3 on their defense. The Rams were one of the league leaders in average annual salary for years (top-10 in four of five seasons from 2018-2022) and that allowed them to eventually win a Super Bowl, but they were only able to do that by repeatedly kicking the can on their cap issues and eventually the bill came due.

In the absence of everyone they’ve lost over the past two off-seasons, the Rams have done very little in the way of adding veteran reinforcements, opting to almost exclusively rely on young players on rookie contracts as replacements, and given that they haven’t had a first round pick in 7 seasons and have had just one picks in the top-50 over the past 6 drafts, that means the Rams are relying on a lot of recent mid-to-late round draft picks, many of whom have shown very little thus far in limited action in their careers. 

The Rams have done an above average job drafting and developing mid-to-late round picks in recent years, allowing them to maintain depth on their roster behind their stars despite trading away most of their early draft picks, so doubling down on their ability to find gems in the draft makes sense as a strategy, rather than continuing to kick the can on their cap issues by adding more expensive veteran reinforcements, but the Rams are counting on unproven players much more than they ever have, missing many of the star players they used to have.

If we look at the Rams cap/salary structure, we see what looks like a very thin roster that is going through a rebuild. About 32.7% of their cap (72.2 million) is dead cap from players who are no longer on the team, with another 33.5% committed to Stafford, Kupp, and Donald, leaving just 33.8% of the rest of their roster. Their active average annual salary is dead last in the NFL at 197.1 million, after years of being among the league leaders in that metric, a metric that correlates pretty heavily with winning percentage. 

Of that active average annual salary, 43.1% is committed to Stafford, Kupp, and Donald alone, all three of whom will be in their age 30 season or later in 2023, meaning the Rams have very little committed to players currently in their primes. Outside of those three aforementioned players, this roster almost resembles a college team, with the amount of unproven players expected to contribute in significant ways. 

The Rams ability to draft and develop makes them better suited to navigate this situation than most teams, but it’s worth questioning if the Rams should have gone through a complete rebuild and moved on from Kupp, Stafford, and/or Donald as well, to accumulate much needed premium draft picks. By the time this team is able to compete again, those three could be well past their primes. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 5-12, 3rd in NFC West

Detroit Lions 2023 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews, Lions

Quarterback

After four straight years of missing the playoffs and with quarterback Matt Stafford demanding a trade, the Lions started what looked like it would be a long rebuild in the 2021 off-season. Even the Lions themselves seemed to be admitting it would be a long rebuild. They turned down a trade that would have given the Lions a relatively high draft pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, which would have allowed them to select a young quarterback like Mac Jones or Justin Fields, and opted to send Stafford to a Rams for a package that included two first round picks, but in the 2022 and 2023 drafts. 

Normally, teams value future draft picks one round lower for every year they have to wait for them, meaning those 2022 and 2023 first round picks were worth the equivalent of a second and third round pick in 2021, but the Lions were not expecting to compete in the short-term and were willing to be patient and wait for the draft picks. The Lions also took back the most expensive contract in the short-term, with the Rams sending quarterback Jared Goff back to the Lions, giving the Lions a more expensive, inferior quarterback that they wouldn’t be able to move on from without penalty for two years.

The first year of this rebuild went about how you’d expect, with the Lions finishing the 2021 season with a 3-13-1 record, which was made even worse by the Rams winning the Super Bowl and leaving the Lions with just the 32nd pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, but, a year later, things look a lot better. While the Rams bottomed out in 2022, gifting the Lions with the 6th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, the Lions surprisingly finished the 2022 season at 9-8, barely out of the post-season, despite a 1-6 start. Given how well the Lions closed last season and the overall amount of young talent on this team, many expect the Lions to take another step forward in 2023 and make the post-season, either as a wild card or by winning their division for what would be the first time since the 1993 season, a realistic possibility with both the Packers and Vikings seemingly on the way down and the Bears still rebuilding.

Part of the Lions’ success last season was actually because of the play of the quarterback who most considered a throw-in in the Matt Stafford trade, Jared Goff, who finished the season with a 72.4 PFF rating and completed 65.1% of his passes for an average of 7.56 YPA, 29 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. Goff isn’t as good as Stafford when both are at their best, but he’s younger, only heading into his age 29 season, and he has played well enough to justify his salary (25.975 million in 2023), so the Lions rightfully haven’t been in a hurry to find his replacement, which has allowed them to use all of the assets they’ve accumulated in their rebuild on the rest of this roster.

Goff has never been the kind of quarterback that can elevate a mediocre roster and, as such, he struggled in his first season in Detroit in 2021, completing 67.2% of his passes for an average of 6.57 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions with an underwhelming team around him, but he’s shown himself capable of taking a strong roster to the post-season and beyond, even leading the Rams to a Super Bowl appearance during the 2018 season. I would expect more of the same from Goff in 2023, in what will be his 8th season in the league.

The Lions did commit a somewhat high pick to the quarterback position in this year’s draft, taking Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker in the third round, but Hooker isn’t necessarily a replacement for Goff. The Lions needed a better backup quarterback and Hooker is unlikely to see action in year one anyway, rehabbing from a torn ACL that he suffered towards the end of the college football season. It’s possible Hooker impresses enough behind the scenes that the Lions want to move on from Goff in a year or two, with Hooker as a cheaper alternative on the roster, but Goff also could just as easily keep the job long-term, with Hooker as his backup.

Unfortunately, with Hooker unlikely to be healthy enough to be the backup in 2023, backup quarterback remains a position of weakness, with Nate Sudfeld (77.3 career QB rating on 37 pass attempts with no starts in 7 seasons in the league) being the only other quarterback on this roster with any experience. He shouldn’t be handed the backup quarterback job and it’s possible the Lions find another backup quarterback option before training camp, which would be advisable, as Sudfeld would likely be in way over his head if forced to start for an extended period of time in the case that Goff suffers an injury. Goff is a solid starter without much of a history of injury (three games missed due to injury in his career), but things would go south for this team in a hurry if he missed significant time.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

The biggest reason for the success of Jared Goff and the rest of this offense in 2022 (5th in offensive DVOA) was the play of their offensive line, which is arguably the best in the league. Their offensive line was also the biggest reason for their big improvement from 2021 (29th in offensive DVOA) to 2022, with arguably their two best offensive linemen, offensive tackle Taylor Decker and center Frank Ragnow, making 17 starts and 16 starts respectively, after injury plagued 2021 seasons in which they started just 9 games and 4 games respectively. 

Ragnow received a grade of 77.9 from PFF in his return from injury, 5th highest among centers, and he’s no one-year wonder either, with grades of 74.9 and 80.3 in 2019 and 2020 respectively and even a 86.7 grade in 2021 before getting hurt. A first round pick in 2018 who is still very much in his prime in his age 27 season, with minimal injury history outside of 2021 (4 games missed total in his other 4 seasons in the league), I would expect Ragnow to remain one of the top centers in the league in 2023.

Decker isn’t quite as good, but still received a 74.4 grade from PFF, 22nd among offensive tackles. That’s nothing new for Decker, who has received a grade of at least 70 from PFF in six of seven seasons in the league, with the one exception being an injury plagued season in 2017, only his second season in the league. Outside of that injury plagued season and 2021, Decker has only ever missed one other start and, not over the hill at age 29 season, I wouldn’t expect any drop off from him this season. Assuming he doesn’t suffer another injury, he should remain at least an above average starter on the left side for the Lions in 2023.

Decker’s return to health allowed Penei Sewell to spend the whole season at right tackle, where the 7th overall pick fared significantly better as a rookie (80.7 PFF grade) while Decker was healthy than he did at left tackle (68.5 PFF grade), where he was forced to play while Decker was out. Sewell continued that strong play on the right side into his second season in the league, proving to be a dominant force with a 80.6 PFF grade, 9th among offensive tackles. He can play left tackle in a pinch if needed, but it’s clear the right side is his better position and, only in his age 23 season, he should remain one of the best right tackles in the league for years to come, even if he doesn’t improve even further, which he could.

The Lions also got good play out of their guards in 2022. Ragnow’s return allowed Evan Brown, who was capable, if unspectacular at center in Ragnow’s absence, to move to right guard, where he continued being a solid starter, posting a 64.8 PFF grade in 12 starts after a 66.8 PFF grade in 12 starts at center in 2021. Brown is no longer with the team, but the Lions do get veteran Halapoulivaati Vaitai back from an injury that cost him all of last season. Vaitai received a 68.4 grade in 15 starts in his last healthy season in 2021, though it’s unclear if he’ll be able to do that again, coming off of a significant injury, going into his age 30 season, and with a history of inconsistency. Aside from 2021, he’s never made more than 10 starts in a season in 7 seasons in the league and in his two other seasons with at least 6 starts he has received PFF grades of 56.6 and 59.7 respectively. He’s probably the weak spot by default on an overall strong offensive line, though he does have some bounce back potential if he’s healthy.

Jonah Jackson remained as the starter at left guard, where he’s been since being drafted by the Lions in the third round in 2020. He had some growing pains as a rookie, finishing with a 57.0 PFF grade, but that improved to 69.3 in 2021 and 66.1 in 2022 and, in total, he’s started 45 of a possible 50 games since entering the league. Going into his age 26 season, he could still have further untapped upside and, even if he doesn’t, he should remain a solid starter into 2023 and beyond. 

The Lions also have good depth on the offensive line, after signing veteran Graham Glasgow to be a reserve this off-season. For Glasgow, it’s a return to Detroit, where the 2016 3rd round pick spent his first four seasons in the league. Glasgow developed into an above average starter in Detroit, receiving grades of 70.6, 71.1, and 74.1 from PFF in his final 3 seasons respectively, seeing action at both guard and center, but he was kind of a bust as a free agent signing with the Broncos, who lured him over on a 4-year, 44 million dollar deal, only to see Glasgow post grades of 68.5, 65.1, and 59.3 in an injury plagued tenure in which he missed 13 games in three seasons. Now going into his age 31 season with a significant recent injury history, Glasgow would be an underwhelming week 1 starting option, but he’s great depth to have, especially given his versatility. He should be able to hold down a starting spot for an extended period of time on the interior if needed.

The Lions’ tackle depth is not as good, with Matt Nelson making 12 starts as the swing tackle over the past three seasons, but receiving grades of just 55.8, 50.8, and 46.3 from PFF. He’ll be pushed for the swing tackle role by veteran journeyman Germain Ifedi, who is plenty experienced (83 starts in 7 seasons in the league), but who has mostly struggled in his career, finishing with a PFF grade higher than 60 just twice in seven seasons in the league, with his career high being 65.0 in 2020. Ifedi is probably an upgrade over Nelson, but mostly by default and he would be a big downgrade from Decker or Sewell if either missed significant time with injury. Still, this is a very talented offensive line overall, possibly the best in the league.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

Another big part of the reason why the Lions were so much better on offense in 2022 than they were in 2021 was the emergence of second year wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown as a legitimate #1 receiver. Only a 5th round pick in 2021, St. Brown surprised a lot of people as a rookie with a 90/912/5 slash line (79.4 PFF grade) and surprised even more when he took another step forward in year two, finishing with a 106/1161/6 slash line and a PFF grade of 90.7 that ranked him second among wide receivers. He’s still a 1-year wonder in terms of being an elite wide receiver, but it was a surprise that he fell to the 5th round in the first place and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him continue proving teams wrong and remaining one of the best wide receivers in the league for years to come, even if he isn’t quite as good as he was in 2022 every season. 

St. Brown was by far the Lions’ best receiver last season, with their second leading receiver on the team Kalif Raymond posting just a 47/616/0 slash line and that will likely remain the case for the Lions in 2023, at least for the first six games of the year. The Lions were hoping that second year wide receiver Jameson Williams, the 12th pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, would break out opposite St. Brown in his second season in the league, after what amounted to a rookie redshirt year, with a torn ACL that he sustained in the college football playoffs limiting him to 78 snaps late in the season. 

Williams could still break out, but it’ll have to wait until at least week 7, with Williams serving a gambling suspension for the first six weeks of the season. Williams would have been a top-10 or even top-5 pick in the 2022 NFL Draft had he not gotten hurt and he has the upside to breakout as one of the top wide receivers in the league long-term, but he’s still unproven at this level and, even if he someday becomes one of the better wide receivers in the league, that doesn’t mean he’ll do so right away.

With Williams out for the first six weeks of the season, the Lions will have to depend more on Marvin Jones, a free agent acquisition who will replace free agent departure DJ Chark (69.6 PFF grade across 534 snaps), and Kalif Raymond, a former undrafted career special teamer who surprised with his decent play as the #2 receiver last season (72.1 PFF grade across 555 snaps), after struggling in a similar role with a 60.5 PFF grade across 742 snaps in 2021, the first significant action of his career at wide receiver. Raymond is probably best suited to be a #3 or #4 wide receiver, but he’s not a terrible fill-in option, even if he obviously lacks Williams’ upside.

Marvin Jones is more or less the same, a decent player, but better suited for a reserve and situational role. There was a time he was more than that and, in fact, this is his second stint in Detroit, after averaging a 58/859/7 slash line per season in five seasons with the Lions from 2016-2020, but Jones is heading into his age 33 season now and has seen his yards per route run average drop from 1.59 in his first nine seasons in the league to 1.24 over the past two seasons, so he seems to be getting close to the end. He might have another capable season left in him, but he’s a pretty low upside option. Holdover Josh Reynolds is also in the mix, but the 6-year veteran has just a 1.23 yards per route run average for his career.

The Lions added to this receiving corps by taking Iowa’s Sam LaPorta in the second round of the draft. That’s not a surprising move considering the Lions received a package centered around a second round pick in exchange for tight end TJ Hockenson, who the Lions sent to the Vikings mid-season last year. The Lions didn’t miss Hockenson much, making the tight end position less of a part of their passing game and sending Hockenson’s targets elsewhere, but LaPorta should at least have a rookie year role in this offense, with his top competition being Brock Wright, a blocking specialist who was the nominal starter in Hockenson’s absence last season. 

Wright has averaged a decent 1.30 yards per route run in a limited passing game role in his first two seasons in the league, but the former undrafted free agent is an underwhelming starting option, receiving grades of 53.5 and 54.2 from PFF over the past seasons. The Lions also have 2022 5th round pick James Mitchell, who showed some upside with a 66.9 PFF grade on 183 snaps as a rookie and could take a step forward and play a bigger role in year two. LaPorta should be considered the favorite for the starting job, but tight ends tend to have a steep learning curve entering the NFL and he’s mostly the favorite for the job because his competition is underwhelming. This passing game will still go through St. Brown, but the re-addition of Jameson Williams mid-season after his suspension could have a big impact if he can come close to meeting his potential.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

The Lions also likely have a big passing game role planned for rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs, who they selected 12th overall after trading down from the Rams pick at 6. Gibbs was a controversial pick, as running backs taken in the first round tend not to be a good investment and running back didn’t even seem to fill a clear need for the Lions, with David Montgomery, a 4-year starter with the Bears, being signed to a 3-year, 18 million dollar deal in free agency and D’Andre Swift as a passing down/change of pace option.

Montgomery’s role is now somewhat up in the air, originally signed to replace Jamaal Williams, who had a 4.07 YPC and 17 touchdowns on 262 carries last season, but now with a highly drafted rookie added as competition. Montgomery’s contract suggests the Lions expect him to have at least somewhat significant of a role, at least on early downs, but the Lions are likely overpaying for how much usage Montgomery figures to get. He’s surpassed 200 carries in each of the past four years with the Bears and, even if that’s not the case again in 2023 if he splits carries with Gibbs, he should see his career 3.94 YPC average increase now with significantly better blocking in Detroit than he had in Chicago. However, the Lions are paying a steep price for him, especially when considering he probably will have the second most touches in this backfield behind Gibbs.

Gibbs gives the Lions upside in the passing game that Montgomery (1.04 yards per route run in his career) doesn’t and, while Swift fared well in that role last season (1.65 yards per route run), in addition to a 5.47 YPC on 99 carries as the change of pace back, the Lions were likely concerned about Swift’s durability, as the 2020 2nd round pick has missed at least three games with injury in every season in the league, and clearly favored Gibbs long-term. With Gibbs being added in the draft, the Lions had no need for Swift, who was in the final year of his rookie deal and returned a 2025 4th round pick in a post-draft trade with the Eagles. The Lions have a lot of resources committed to this backfield, with Montgomery being the 15th highest paid running back in the league in average annual salary and Gibbs being selected 12th overall, and they might not get the kind of play you would expect for the kind of resources they’ve spent, but they are a solid running back tandem at the very least. 

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

With the Lions having the success on offense they did last season, it shouldn’t come as any surprise that their defense was a big problem, ranking 28th in DVOA, and, if the Lions want to take a step forward as a team in 2023, that’s the side of the ball where they will need to improve. There is good reason to believe the Lions can do that, in part because defensive performance tends to be much less consistent and predictive year-to-year than offensive performance, but also because the Lions committed significant resources to their defense this off-season and have several players they can expect more out of in 2023.

At the edge defender position, the latter is the case, as the Lions didn’t make any big additions to this group, but could still get better play than they did a year ago. Aidan Hutchinson, Josh Paschal, and James Houston are all second year players who could be better than they were as rookies. Hutchinson has by far the most upside of the group and the 2022 2nd overall pick is already off to a great start, finishing his rookie year with a 80.7 PFF grade, including 89.5 from week 11 on. That’s a small sample size, but it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he continued that into year two.

Paschal was a second round pick and his rookie year impact was probably underwhelming for a relatively high draft pick, spending most of the year as a reserve, playing just 293 snaps and receiving an underwhelming 55.1 PFF grade. However, he has the talent to take a step forward in year two and become a more consistent contributor. James Houston also didn’t play much as a rookie, seeing just 140 snaps total, but he was incredibly efficient in his limited action, managing 8 sacks, 4 hits, and a 18.5% pressure rate on just 92 pass rush snaps. He’s highly unlikely to be anywhere near that efficient again in 2023, just because no one does that for an extended period of time, but that doesn’t mean he couldn’t make a bigger impact overall if he gets more playing time.

The Lions also have a pair of veterans coming off injury plagued years who could make more of an impact in 2023, Charles Harris and Romeo Okwara. Harris was the Lions’ best pass rusher in 2021, totaling 7.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 11.6% pressure rate and received a 68.3 PFF grade, but he was limited to 259 snaps in 6 games in 2022 and did not fare nearly as well when on the field either, finishing the year with a 56.4 PFF grade and a 7.2% pressure rate. 

Harris should be healthier in 2023, though there’s no guarantee he’ll play as well as he did in 2021, which has largely been an outlier season for a player who has mostly been a reserve in his career, with his highest snap count outside of 2021 being just 496 back in his rookie season in 2017. Harris was a first round pick in 2017 and looked like a late bloomer after 2021, but he could just as easily prove to be a one-year wonder who can’t repeat his 2021 form. 

For Okwara, his injury issues date back a couple years, as a torn achilles suffered during the 2021 season limited him to 188 snaps in 4 games that season and 119 snaps in 5 games last season. Okwara also didn’t look himself upon his return last season, struggling with a 56.3 PFF grade in his limited action. Okwara is largely a one-year wonder as well, with 10 sacks, 9 hits, and a 14.4% pressure rate in his last full healthy season in 2020 and just a 8.9% pressure rate in his other 6 seasons in the league combined, but he had a 17.8% pressure rate in 2021 in limited action before getting hurt and, still only in his age 28 season, another year removed from his injury, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he bounced back at least somewhat in 2023.

With Harris and Okwara likely to be healthier and a trio of second year players who could take a step forward, it’s very likely that John Cominsky, who finished second among Lions edge defenders behind Hutchinson with 554 snaps played last season, has a diminished role this season, perhaps significantly, but that’s not necessarily an indictment on his play, as he had 4 sacks, 8 hits, and a 12.4% pressure rate last season and had an admirable 68.2 PFF grade. 

Cominsky was a career backup prior to last season, with 512 total snaps played in his first three seasons in the league with the Falcons prior to being claimed off the waivers by the Lions in 2022, but the 2019 4th round pick always flashed in limited action and should fare well in what will likely be a more limited rotational role for him in 2023, in a position group that should be much deeper than a year ago, despite not having any significant off-season additions. 

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

The Lions didn’t make any notable additions on the interior of their defensive line either this off-season, but they do get 2021 2nd round pick Levi Onwuzurike back after he missed all of 2022 with injury. Onwuzurike didn’t show much in limited action (396 snaps) as a rookie, but he came into the league with a lot of potential and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he developed into at least a solid contributor in his third season in the league in 2023. The Lions being deeper at the edge defender spot also means they can line up an edge defender on the inside in obvious passing situations more often than they did last season, which will offset their lack of depth on the interior somewhat.

Even with Onwuzurike returning and more depth on the edge, the Lions will once again be counting on big roles from Alim McNeill (779 snaps) and Isaiah Buggs (752 snaps). McNeill was also in the 2021 draft class with Onwuzurike and, despite going a round later in the third round, his career has gotten off to a much better start than Onwuzurike’s, as he had a decent 60.1 PFF grade on 422 snaps as a rookie before posting a 69.8 grade in a much larger starting role in 2022. Now going into his third season in the league, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he took another step forward and, even if he doesn’t, he should remain at least a solid contributor.

Buggs is a much shakier option. He finished last season with a 53.9 PFF grade and only played as much as he did out of necessity with Onwuzurike out, after playing just 433 snaps total in his first three seasons in the league prior to last season, finishing with grades of lower than 60 on PFF in each of those three seasons as well. He’ll almost definitely play fewer snaps this season, but he’ll probably still struggle even in a smaller role and the Lions aren’t deep enough to avoid having to at least play him in a rotational role.

The Lions also signed veteran journeyman Christian Covington in free agency to give them additional depth. Covington was a good rotational player earlier in his career, but he’s finished below average on PFF in every season in his career in which he’s played more than 500 snaps and now he’s heading into his age 30 season coming off of an injury plagued season with the Chargers in which he struggled mightily when on the field and played just 123 snaps total. He’ll compete for a deep rotational role with their top returning reserve interior defender Benito Jones, a 2020 undrafted free agent who struggled on 309 snaps in the first significant action of his career. The return of Onwuzurike will probably help this group, but they’re still underwhelming overall.

Grade: C+

Linebackers

The Lions had two first round picks this year because of the Matt Stafford trade and they used the second of those two picks, their own, 18th overall, on Iowa linebacker Jack Campbell. Like the selection of Jahmyr Gibbs with their first round, Campbell’s selection was also controversial, as he was considered a day 2 prospect and didn’t seem to fill an obvious need either. The Lions re-signed veteran Alex Anzalone to a 3-year, 18.3 million dollar deal this off-season and have a pair of recent draft picks who had decent seasons last year, 2021 4th round pick Derrick Barnes and 2022 6th round pick Malcolm Rodriguez, who had PFF grades of 62.3 and 62.8 respectively on 346 snaps and 611 snaps respectively.

Barnes struggled mightily as a rookie on 448 snaps, but could easily continue being a good situational linebacker long-term, while Rodriguez looked like a long-term starter. Anzalone might actually be the worst of the bunch, starting 51 of 69 games played in six seasons in the league, but only once receiving a grade from PFF higher than 62 (59.2 last season). However, his contract basically guarantees him a role, so Campbell’s addition will mostly take snaps away from their other young linebackers. This isn’t a bad linebacking corps and there will be a lot of competition for roles in training camp, even if the addition of a linebacker in the first round probably wasn’t necessary. 

Grade: B

Secondary

The Lions committed the most resources to this secondary of any position group this off-season, a smart decision as that was their biggest weakness last season. Jeffrey Okudah (59.4 PFF grade on 789 snaps), Will Harris (63.7 on 659 snaps), Mike Hughes (59.9 on 561 snaps), Jerry Jacobs (55.8 on 542 snaps), and Amani Oruwairye (30.0 on 474 snaps) were their top cornerbacks in terms of snaps played last season. This off-season, they added Emmanuel Moseley and Cameron Sutton to be starters on contracts of 1 years, 6 million and 3 years, 33 million respectively and they added hybrid safety/slot cornerbacks CJ Gardner-Johnson and Brian Branch as well, with Gardner-Johnson added in free agency on a 1-year, 6.5 million dollar contract and Branch being a second round draft pick. Okudah was traded, Hughes and Oruwairye weren’t retained in free agency, and Harris and Jacobs are likely to be reserves in 2023.

Sutton will be the de facto #1 cornerback, by virtue of his bigger salary. The 2017 3rd round pick was a bit of a late bloomer, but he’s made 37 starts over the past 3 seasons with PFF grades of 68.6, 61.9, and 71.6 respectively so he should continue being at least a solid starting option for the Lions, something they didn’t really have last season. Moseley should be as well, as he’s finished with a PFF grade higher than 68 of three of the past four seasons, including a career best 70.9 in 2022. His biggest problem has been durability, missing 22 games over those 4 seasons. He should remain a solid starter, but he’ll probably miss more time at some point, having never played more than 602 snaps in a season in his career.

How the Lions use Gardner-Johnson and Branch will be interesting to see, as both can play on the slot and at safety and the Lions have playing time available in both spots. Gardner-Johnson got attention for his 6 interceptions last season with the Eagles, tied for the league lead, but it’s not a surprise he had to settle for a one-year deal in free agency, as he only had a 63.9 PFF grade last season despite the high interception total and he’s finished with a PFF grade below 65 in three of four seasons in the league. He’s also never finished below 60, so he has a low floor and he’s a versatile option who is a good value for the Lions on the contract they signed him to, but he’s not as good as his interception total last season suggests.

The Lions will also be getting safety Tracy Walker back from injury, after his 2022 season was ended by a week 3 achilles tear. He might not be quite the same in his first season back from injury, but the 2018 3rd round pick has finished average or better on PFF in 4 of 5 seasons in the league, with three seasons above 70, including a 74.3 grade before injury in 2022. Still only in his age 28 season, he should make something close to a full recovery in his first season back and should be an asset for this defense upon his return.

In Tracy Walker’s absence, DeShon Elliott (859 snaps) and Kerby Joseph (875 snaps) led Lions safeties in snaps played. Elliott is no longer with the team, but Joseph was a 3rd round pick in 2022 and should maintain a role in this secondary, even with Walker returning, after earning a promising 64.0 grade from PFF as a rookie. He probably won’t see the same snap count this year, but should still be a useful player for them in sub packages and obvious passing situations, when Gardner-Johnson and/or Branch could move to the slot.

Will Harris also remains as a versatile reserve who can play safety and cornerback. Primarily playing cornerback last year, he was the Lions’ only cornerback to receive even an average grade from PFF and, while the 2019 3rd round pick has been more inconsistent than that in the past, he’s still not a bad reserve option, especially when you consider his versatility. This isn’t a great secondary, but isn’t much deeper and more talented than last year’s unit, which was one of the worst in the league. If the Lions are significantly improved on defense this season, it will be primarily because of the improvement in this unit.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Lions were one of the best offensive teams in the league last season and have a good chance to repeat their strong performance again in 2023, with all of their top-10 in terms of snaps played on offense returning from a year ago. On defense, the Lions should be much improved, thanks to the improvement of their young defensive line and the off-season additions they made in the secondary. They won’t be great defensively, but they won’t need to be to make the post-season if their offense can continue playing around the level they played at last season. In a weak NFC North, the Lions look like the early favorites. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 10-7, 1st in NFC North

Minnesota Vikings 2023 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews, Vikings

Quarterback

The Vikings finished last season 13-4, but needed to go 11-0 in one score games to do so and finished with a -3 point differential, the first time in NFL history that a team with as high of a winning percentage as the Vikings had a negative point differential on the season, with their 13 wins coming by a combined 86 points (6.62 points per game) and their 4 losses coming by a combined 89 points (22.25 points per game). The Vikings were even worse in terms of DVOA, which ranked them 27th at -13.8%, giving them the lowest DVOA of all time for a team with at least 12 wins. 

Point differential and DVOA tend to be significantly more predictive than winning percentage and, unsurprisingly, the Vikings were one and done in the post-season, losing their first round game at home to a Giants team that was only 21st in DVOA in their own right and that was blown out the following week in Philadelphia. Making matters worse for the Vikings, they had among the least financial flexibility of any team in the league this off-season and, as a result, had to let several key contributors walk without really replacing them.

Even if the Vikings brought back the same team as last year, it’s highly unlikely they would continue winning close games at the same rate as a year ago and, as a result, they would have won significantly fewer games, but the Vikings are unlikely to be even as good as they were a year ago, so their drop off in win total will likely be even higher than if they kept their team the same. Given that, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see the Vikings drop out of the post-season entirely in 2023.

One thing the Vikings did this off-season to free up cap space was restructuring Kirk Cousins contract and it’s interesting the Vikings chose to do that instead of extending Cousins, which probably would have lowered his cap hit even more. However, extending him would almost definitely mean guaranteeing him a significant salary for 2024 and, with Cousins going into his age 35 season in 2023, the Vikings don’t seem to want to commit that kind of guaranteed money to him beyond this season. Cousins not being extended suggests the Vikings are at least thinking about moving forward with a younger quarterback in 2024 and beyond.

Cousins wasn’t really the problem for the Vikings in 2022, but he had his lowest completion percentage (65.9%) since 2017, his lowest YPA (7.07) since 2013, and his lowest PFF rating (77.4) since 2017 and quarterbacks tend to lose it pretty quickly in their mid-to-late 30s. Cousins isn’t totally over the hill yet and could have another solid season for the Vikings in 2023, but his best days are almost definitely behind him and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he continued declining. With Cousins not locked up long-term, many expected the Vikings to look for a quarterback of the future in the draft, but they didn’t address the position until the 5th round when they took BYU’s Jaren Hall who, based on the track record of 5th round quarterbacks historically, is highly unlikely to be their long-term quarterback of the future. 

The Vikings have a decent backup in Nick Mullens (88.0 QB rating in 17 starts in six seasons in the league) and he figures to keep the #2 job for at least another year ahead of the raw rookie Hall, but Mullen is not someone you’d be comfortable starting for an extended period of time. Cousins is as durable as they come, not missing a game due to injury in 8 years in the league, so the backup quarterback position isn’t that important for this team, but it’s concerning that the Vikings don’t have another good option in case Cousins declines significantly, which is a possibility given his age. Cousins could have another above average season, but this is a quarterback room with legitimate concerns.

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

One expensive veteran the Vikings moved on from this off-season is wide receiver Adam Thielen, who was released ahead of a 13.5 million dollar non-guaranteed salary for his age 33 season in 2023. Thielen is on the decline and won’t be missed that much, after posting just a 65.0 PFF grade across 1,042 snaps last season, and, unlike some of their other off-season losses, the Vikings found a replacement for Thielen, taking Jordan Addison 23rd overall, but taking him cost them their first round pick, which could have been used on other needs, and, while Addison obviously has a much higher upside than Thielen going forward, he’s no guarantee to be an upgrade on Thielen in year one.

Fortunately, the Vikings still have #1 wide receiver Jordan Jefferson, who is arguably the best wide receiver in the entire league. Jefferson burst onto the scene with a ridiculous 88/1400/7 slash line as a rookie in 2020 and, as good as that year was, he’s only gotten better since then, finishing with a 108/1616/10 slash line in 2021 and a 128/1809/8 slash line in 2022, while averaging 2.62 yards per route run for his career. He’s earned a PFF grade of at least 90 in all three seasons in the league, one of two wide receivers in the league along with Davante Adams to finish with a grade higher than 90 in each of the past three seasons. Despite all his accomplishments, Jefferson is still only going into his age 24 season, so he should continue his dominant play for at least several more seasons, barring a catastrophic injury.

KJ Osborn also returns as the #3 receiver, a role he’s filled in each of the past two seasons. Osborn has been a middling receiver, with PFF grades of 64.9 and 65.1 and a yards per route run average of just 1.19, but he’s not a bad #3 receiver either (slash lines of 50/655/7 and 60/650/5 over the past two seasons) and, going into his age 26 season, it’s possible the 2020 5th round pick has further untapped upside. Even if he doesn’t improve any further, he should remain a reliable, if unspectacular third receiver.

Depth is a concern at wide receiver behind their top-3. That was the case last season as well, but Jefferson, Thielen, and Osborn all played all 17 games last season, so their lack of depth wasn’t exposed. That’s highly unlikely to be the case again in 2023 though, meaning top reserves Jalen Nailor and/or Jalen Reagor will have to see more action in 2023 than they did in 2022, when they played 59 snaps and 82 snaps respectively. Nailor was a 6th round pick in 2022 and didn’t show much in limited rookie year action, while Reagor is a bust of a former first round pick, taken 21st overall in 2020 by the Eagles, who moved on from him after just two years. It’s possible Reagor could still have untapped potential, but he’s averaged just 0.99 yards per route run in his career, so, even if he takes a step forward in 2023, he still has a long way to go to be a reliable receiver.

The Vikings also have tight end TJ Hockenson, who was added in a mid-season trade with the Lions last season for a package centered around a 2023 2nd round pick. Hockenson became a big part of this offense immediately, but he wasn’t that efficient, posting a 60/519/3 slash line in 10 games, which seems impressive, until you consider that he received 86 targets in those 10 games and averaged just 6.03 yards per target. Hockenson also saw his yards per route run average drop to 1.43 with the Vikings, after averaging 1.87 yards per route run with the Lions earlier in the season.

Hockenson was the 8th overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft by the Lions and he has been a solid tight end throughout his career, averaging 1.55 yards per route run over the past three seasons combined, but he has yet to show himself to be an elite tight end worthy of being a top-10 pick and, now going into his age 26 season, it’s possible he is who he is as a player at this point, above average, but unspectacular. I would expect more of the same from him in 2023. Hockenson will be backed up by free agent acquisition Josh Oliver, who will primarily be used as a blocker. 

Oliver somewhat shockingly got a 3-year, 21 million dollar deal this off-season, a big investment for a Vikings team with cap problems and other positions of need. He’s averaged just 0.70 yards per route run for his career and has just 26 career catches in 4 seasons in the league, but the Vikings clearly value his blocking and also probably think he has untapped upside as a receiver. That might not prove to be the case, but he should at least be a solid blocking tight end for them, albeit at a price well beyond what blocking tight ends normally cost. This is an above average receiving corps overall, led by arguably the top wide receiver in the league in Justin Jefferson, but the Vikings don’t have a proven #2 pass catcher and their lack of depth beyond their starters is concerning.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

Another highly paid player the Vikings are expected to move on from this off-season is running back Dalvin Cook. Cook remains on the roster as of this writing, but reports suggest it’s unlikely that Cook stays on the team at his current non-guaranteed salary of 11 million and, if the Vikings can’t find a trade partner for Cook, they will almost definitely end up releasing him to save some money. Committing that kind of money to the running back position is typically not a good idea, especially one with Cook’s injury history (25 games missed in 6 seasons in the league), but Cook has been one of the best running backs in the league over the past few years, rushing for 5,024 yards and 43 touchdowns on 1,075 carries (4.67 YPC) across the past four seasons combined, so, even if it makes sense for the cap strapped Vikings to move on from him, his absence will still be felt.

If Cook ends up not being on the Vikings in 2023, the lead back job will almost definitely fall to Alexander Mattison, who has shown potential as Cook’s backup over the past four seasons, rushing for 1,670 yards and 11 touchdowns on 404 carries (4.13 YPC). If Cook was going to be kept on the roster this season, the Vikings likely would have let Mattison walk, but instead they kept him on a 2-year, 7 million dollar deal, suggesting they view him as a much cheaper alternative to Cook. Mattison isn’t as explosive as Cook and doesn’t offer the same abilities as a receiver (1.01 yards per route run for Mattison in his career, as opposed to 1.20 for Cook), but he’s not a bad alternative if the Vikings don’t want to commit significant resources to the running back position.

Depth behind Mattison is a problem though. The Vikings used a 7th round pick on UAB’s DeWayne McBride in this year’s draft, but he’s not a guarantee to even make the final roster. Ty Chandler was a 5th round pick last year, but remains a complete mystery, after playing just 13 snaps as a rookie. Kene Nwangwu was a 4th round pick in 2021, but has mostly been a return man and special teamer in his career, seeing just 28 touches on offense in two seasons in the league. Once the Vikings move on from Cook, they may opt to bring in a veteran backup, with all of their other backup options being highly unproven. Any veteran they bring in at this point is unlikely to have a huge impact though, so the Vikings will need a big year from Mattison if Cook is let go. Mattison should be a solid starter, but lacks Cook’s upside.

Grade: B- (assumes Cook is not on the final roster)

Offensive Line

Not much has changed for the Vikings on the offensive line this off-season, as they retain all five starters from a year ago. The biggest concern is right tackle Brian O’Neill, who was PFF’s 8th ranked offensive tackle with a 82.7 grade in 16 starts last season, but who tore his achilles late in the year and could miss time and/or be less effective in 2023 as a result, which would hurt this offensive line significantly, given how well O’Neill played a year ago. 

O’Neill isn’t a one-year wonder either, earning grades of 70.7, 78.0, and 73.4 in 2019, 2020, and 2021 as well and, still in his prime in his age 28 season, we would be able to expect more of the same from him in 2023 if it wasn’t for the injury, but his health issues complicate his projection and could prove to be a big problem for a Vikings team that lacks a proven backup at the tackle position. Oli Udoh is expected to be the swing tackle, but the 2019 6th round pick struggled mightily in the only extended action of his career in 2021 (54.4 PFF grade) and has made just one start outside of that season.

Right guard is also a position of concern, as incumbent starter Ed Ingram struggled with a 57.1 PFF grade in 17 starts last season, but the 2022 2nd round pick was only a rookie and has the upside to take a step forward in his second season in the league. He’ll likely be backed up by Chris Reed, a journeyman who has made 30 starts in 8 seasons in the league. Reed hasn’t been a bad fill-in when called upon, but there’s a reason he’s mostly been a backup and he now heads into his age 31 season, so he could struggle if forced into significant action.

The rest of this offensive line is in good shape, led by their best offensive lineman, left tackle Christian Darrisaw, who finished the 2022 season as PFF’s 2nd ranked offensive tackle with a 90.3 PFF grade. Darrisaw is a one-year wonder in terms of playing at that level and might not be as good again in 2023, but the 2021 first round pick came into the league with a lot of upside, he’s only going into his age 24 season, and he also had a 71.7 PFF grade as a rookie, so it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he continued being one of the better left tackles in the league for years to come, even if he’s not quite as good in 2023 as he was a year ago.

Center Garrett Bradbury is also a former first round pick, although he hasn’t had nearly the success that Darrisaw has had. Selected 18th overall in 2019, Bradbury was middling at best early in his career, with PFF grades of 58.1, 61.4, and 60.2 across his first three seasons in the league (45 starts), before taking a step forward in 2022 and finishing with a 70.2 PFF grade, albeit in only 12 starts, with five games missed due to injury. Bradbury is already in his age 28 season, so he probably doesn’t have any further untapped upside and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he regressed a little bit to his pre-2022 form this season, but he has a good chance to remain at least a solid starter.

Left guard Ezra Cleveland, meanwhile, was a 2nd round pick in 2020 and has gotten better in every season in the league, with PFF grades of 66.2, 68.6, and 73.5, while making 43 total starts, including all 34 over the past two seasons. Last season, his PFF grade was good for 10th best among eligible guards. Still only going into his age 25 season, he could easily keep getting better and, even if he doesn’t, he should remain at least an above average starter in 2023 and beyond. Overall, this offensive line has a lot of talent, despite concerns at right guard, where Ed Ingram struggled in 2022, and right tackle, where talented starter Brian O’Neill is coming off of a major injury and might not be as good as his usual self.

Grade: A-

Edge Defenders

Another highly paid veteran that the Vikings moved on from this off-season was edge defender Za’Darius Smith, a big loss, considering Smith finished last season as PFF’s 18th ranked edge defender with a 82.2 PFF grade across 770 snaps. The Vikings replaced him by signing Marcus Davenport in free agency and he has the upside to be a comparable replacement, but he comes with a lot of downside as well. A first round pick in 2018, Davenport has an impressive 13.6% pressure rate over the past four seasons, while also playing the run well and earning overall grades from PFF of 84.1, 73.3, 88.8, and 76.8 respectively.

However, Davenport has never come close to playing as many snaps as Smith did last season, averaging 450 snaps per season in his career and maxing out at 533 snaps in 2019. That’s partially due to Davenport rotating frequently with other edge defenders, but it’s also due to him missing at least two games with injury in every season in the league, with 19 games missed total in 5 seasons in the league. Davenport could give them a similar level of play as Smith when he’s on the field, but he might not be as effective if he plays the same amount of snaps as Smith did and he will probably miss at least some time with injuries at some point.

The Vikings do bring back Danielle Hunter, who was actually even better than Smith last season, finishing 9th among edge defenders with a 86.3 PFF grade across 905 snaps, playing the run at a high level, while totaling 10.5 sacks, 12 hits, and a 12.3% pressure rate as a pass rusher. Hunter had most of his 2020 and 2021 season wiped out by injuries, but he still played at a high level when healthy and he has finished with a PFF grade of 74 or higher in every season in the league except his rookie season in 2016. Still relatively in his prime in his age 29 season, I wouldn’t expect Hunter to drop off significantly this year, assuming he can avoid further injuries.

With Davenport unlikely to play as many snaps as Smith did a year ago, the Vikings will likely need more out of reserves DJ Wonnum and Patrick Jones. Wonnum and Jones played 562 snaps and 308 snaps respectively last season, but were underwhelming at best, with PFF grades of 58.0 and 62.5 respectively and a combined pressure rate of just 9.2%. Both are relatively young, so they could be better in 2023, but that’s far from a guarantee. Wonnum, a 4th round pick in 2020, has never received even a grade of 60 from PFF for a season, while Jones, a 3rd round pick in 2021, only played in 99 underwhelming rookie year snaps before last year’s middling season as a reserve. Both are likely to remain middling at best, especially if they have to play a larger role. This group has a lot of upside led by Hunter and Davenport, but also downside given Davenport’s durability issues and their underwhelming depth.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

Interior defender Dalvin Tomlinson was also not retained this off-season, another big loss, as Tomlinson was PFF’s 16th ranked interior defender with a 77.1 grade across 550 snaps last season. The closest thing the Vikings did to replacing Tomlinson was signing ex-Packer Dean Lowry to a 2-year, 8.5 million dollar deal, but he figures to be a significant downgrade. Lowry has played 618 snaps per season over the past five seasons, but has been middling at best in those seasons, including a 59.3 PFF grade across 482 snaps in 2022. I would expect more of the same from him in 2023.

Harrison Phillips was the other starter inside next to Tomlinson last season and he still remains on the team, which is a good thing, as Phillips received a 72.1 grade from PFF last season across 693 snaps. Durability is a question mark for Phillips, as he missed 20 games and never played more than 473 snaps in a season in four seasons in the league prior to last season, but he’s always shown a lot of promise when on the field, including a 77.4 grade in 2021. The Vikings might not be able to count on Phillips playing all 17 games again in 2023 like he did in 2022, but he should remain an above average starting option when on the field. 

Reserves Jonathan Bullard (318 snaps), Khyiris Tonga (276 snaps), and James Lynch (276 snaps) all return for 2023 and should play similar roles. Tonga probably has the most upside of the group, posting a 77.9 PFF grade last season in his limited action, but the 2021 7th round pick also had just a 52.1 grade on 217 snaps as a rookie with the Bears and did not make the Bears final roster last off-season, landing on the Falcons’ practice squad before the Vikings added him to the active roster. It’s possible he’s turned a corner and that we should ignore his rookie year struggles, but he’s also seen such little action overall that it’s hard to project him to a larger role if he was ever forced into one by injuries ahead of him on the depth chart.

Bullard and Lynch, meanwhile, are likely to remain underwhelming options, even as reserves. Bullard was a 3rd round pick back in 2016 and has been in the league for 7 seasons, but he’s never played more than 437 snaps in a season in his career and he’s finished with PFF grades below 60 in each of the past four seasons, on an average of just 242 snaps per season. Now going into his age 30 season, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Bullard decline even further and, even if he doesn’t, he figures to be a mediocre option even in limited action. Lynch, meanwhile, was a 4th round pick in 2020 and has developed into a decent run stopper, but he offers nothing as a pass rusher (2.9% pressure rate for his career) and isn’t good enough against the run to make up for it. This isn’t a bad position group, but losing Tomlinson and replacing him with the inferior Dean Lowry will definitely hurt them.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

The Vikings also parted ways with every down linebacker Eric Kendricks this off-season. By doing so, they save 9.5 million ahead of what would have been his age 31 season, but Kendricks has been a reliable every down linebacker for this team for years and they’ll be replacing him with 2022 3rd round pick Brian Asamoah. He flashed a lot of potential on 121 rookie year snaps, but is overall unproven and could easily prove to be a downgrade. 

Asamoah isn’t a bad replacement, but the Vikings probably got worse in the linebacking corps by releasing Kendricks. At the very least, moving Asamoah into the starting lineup depletes their depth, leaving them with 2020 4th round pick Troy Dye (42 career snaps) and free agent acquisition Troy Reeder, a career special teamer who played just 62 defensive snaps in 2022, as their top reserve options. The Vikings at least do bring back their other every down linebacker Jordan Hicks, who actually finished with a slightly higher PFF grade (65.4 vs. 61.1) than Kendricks last season. 

Hicks has had an interesting career, being selected by the Eagles in the third round in 2015 and earning grades of 80.9, 88.4, and 75.1 from PFF in 2015, 2016, and 2018 respectively, but also missing 21 games due to injury over his first four seasons. He then went to Arizona for three seasons before joining the Vikings in 2022 and, while he hasn’t reached the level he played at for stretches with the Eagles, with his highest PFF grade over the past four seasons being 65.4, he’s also been a reliable, steady every down linebacker and he has managed to shake the injury bug, not missing a single game in four years, despite playing an average of 62.8 snaps per game. 

Now in his age 31 season, Hicks could start to decline in 2023 and his best days are almost definitely behind him at this point, but it also wouldn’t surprise me if he remained a reliable every down linebacker. With Kendricks gone, Hicks aging, and a lack of depth, the Vikings probably will be worse in the linebacking corps than they were a year ago, but Asamoah has potential and Hicks could hold up for another year.

Grade: B-

Secondary

The Vikings also lost top cornerback Patrick Peterson in free agency this off-season, which is a big loss, considering he made all 17 starts last season and finished with a 80.7 PFF grade. Unlike many of their off-season moves, not retaining Peterson wasn’t a cost saving measure, as Peterson’s replacement Byron Murphy was signed by the Vikings to a 2-year, 17.5 million dollar deal, while Peterson signed with the Steelers for just 14 million over two years. Murphy is much younger than Peterson, going into his age 25 season, while Peterson goes into his age 33 season, but the Vikings will almost definitely be worse in the short-term from adding Murphy over Peterson.

Murphy was a 2nd round pick in 2019 and may still have further untapped upside given his relative youth, but he’s has never had a PFF grade higher than 66.7 in his career. Chandon Sullivan (944 snaps) and Cameron Dantzler (505 snaps), their #2 and #3 cornerbacks last season in terms of snaps played, are also no longer with the team and, while they are much more middling players who won’t be missed as much as Peterson (PFF grades of 55.8 and 63.1 respectively in 2022), the Vikings didn’t really replace them and will instead be counting on young, inexperienced cornerbacks stepping up in their place. 

Andrew Booth probably has the most upside of the Vikings’ young cornerbacks, as he went in the 2nd round in 2022 and likely would have been a first round pick if not for injury concerns, but he struggled across just 105 rookie year snaps in an injury plagued season and, while he has the upside to develop into an above average starter if he can stay healthy, he could easily suffer more injuries and, even if he doesn’t, he might not break out as an above average starter until later in his career.

Akalyeb Evans also struggled in limited rookie year action (162 snaps), but the 2022 4th round pick seems to have the inside track at the #3 cornerback job due to the Vikings’ lack of a better option. USC’s Mekhi Blackmon and LSU’s Jay Ward were added in the third and fourth round respectively of this year’s draft, but would likely struggle if forced into significant rookie year action. With no proven options behind underwhelming de facto #1 cornerback Byron Murphy, this cornerback group has a lot of concerns.

Things are better at the safety position, but there is still reason for concern. Harrison Smith is still their best safety and has been one of the best safeties in the league for most of his impressive 11-year career to date, but he’s now heading into his age 34 season and showed significant decline last season, with his 69.1 PFF grade being his worst since his second season in the league back in 2013. He was still a slightly above average starter last season and played 912 snaps as an every down safety, so if he doesn’t decline further, he should remain a useful player for this defense, but further decline is possible and, at this point, I wouldn’t expect him to bounce back to even his 2020 (74.3) or 2021 (77.9) form, given his age.

Camryn Bynum struggled as the other starting safety last season, having a PFF grade of 58.2, but the 2021 4th round pick could be better in his third season in the league in 2023 and, even if he isn’t, the Vikings have a couple promising options who could beat him out for the starting job and who could easily prove to be upgrades. Lewis Cine is a 2022 1st round pick who might be the favorite for the job based purely on where he was drafted, even though he played just two rookie year snaps in a season that started with him failing to win a starting job on defense and ended in week 4 with an injury suffered on special teams. He’s a relative unknown, but he has the upside to develop into at least a solid starter long-term and it wouldn’t surprise me if he did that in 2023. 

Josh Mettulus, meanwhile, is a 2020 6th round pick who flashed in limited action as a reserve last season (259 snaps). He’ll probably remain a reserve in 2023, especially with Cine returning, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he ended up in the starting lineup at some point due to injury and fared well as an injury replacement. With much more depth at safety than cornerback, expect the Vikings to use 3 safeties somewhat frequently in sub packages to offset their lack of cornerback depth, a strategy aided by converted collegiate cornerback Camryn Bynum’s history on the slot. This is an underwhelming secondary overall though, with top cornerback Patrick Peterson gone and top safety Harrison Smith getting up there in age.

Grade: C+

Conclusion

The Vikings were unlikely to match last year’s 13-4 record even if they brought back the same team, as their point differential and DVOA, which are much more predictive than win/loss records year-to-year, suggested they were actually a below average team last season. Making matters worse, this is almost definitely a worse roster than a year ago, in large part because they lost numerous key veterans this off-season and, for the most part, they did not adequately replace them.

The Vikings might have on upgraded aging wide receiver Adam Thielen with promising rookie Jordan Addison, but their defense lost edge defender Za’Darius Smith, interior defender Dalvin Tomlinson, cornerback Patrick Peterson, and middle linebacker Eric Kendricks and will replace them on the roster with Marcus Davenport, Dean Lowry, Byron Murphy, and Troy Reeder, who are almost definitely downgrades, in some cases significantly so. The Vikings are also expected to part ways with feature back Dalvin Cook and whoever they sign to replace him will almost definitely be a significant downgrade as well. On top of that, several other key players on this roster, quarterback Kirk Cousins, safety Harrison Smith, and linebacker Jordan Hicks are on the wrong side of 30 and could drop off significantly. 

The Vikings also can’t count on having as good of health as they had last season, when they had the 5th fewest adjusted games lost in the league. Injury problems are already a concern for the Vikings heading into the 2023 season, with talented right tackle Brian O’Neill rehabbing from a late season torn Achilles that has him questionable for the start of the year and that could keep him from playing at his highest level for most of the season. All in all, this looks likely to be a below .500 team in 2023, though the NFC in general and particularly the NFC North are weak enough that they could still compete for a post-season spot. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 6-11, 4th in NFC North

Green Bay Packers 2023 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews, Packers

Quarterback

For decades, no one has had more continuity at the quarterback position than the Packers who, outside of a few spot starts by quarterbacks filling in for an absent starter, have had just two quarterbacks since Brett Favre’s first season with the team in 1992. Favre went on to make every start for the Packers over the next 16 seasons until 2007 and, while he didn’t have the same durability as Favre, Aaron Rodgers took over in 2008 and was the Packers’ primary starter all the way through 2022, while missing just 19 starts over that 15-year stretch. That will change this season though, as the Packers have turned the page at the quarterback position and will start Jordan Love, who will become just the third different week one starter the Packers have had since Favre arrived back in 1992.

It’s a move that has been three years in the making, dating back to the selection of Love with the 26th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. It was a surprising move at the time because quarterback didn’t seem like a pressing need for a team that had just made the NFC Championship game the year before, especially not a need that the Packers would have to trade up a few spots from 30th to address. The selection looked even less necessary a year later, with Rodgers, who previously had shown some signs of decline in his mid-30s, turning back the clock to win the 2020 MVP, while the raw prospect Love struggled behind the scenes. Complicating matters for the Packers, Rodgers, unhappy with his successor being selected, threatened to retire the following his 2020 MVP season if he wasn’t traded. 

The Packers’ original plan after drafting Love was likely to trade Rodgers following the 2020 season and start the youngster Love in 2021 and beyond, but with Rodgers coming off of an MVP year and Love struggling behind the scenes, the Packers’ plans changed and they spent most of the off-season convincing Rodgers to stay, agreeing to give him a pay raise on his current contract the following off-season if he returned to the team. Rodgers returned and followed his 2020 MVP season up with another MVP season in 2021, which left Love’s long-term status in limbo, especially with Rodgers receiving a new contract with hefty guarantees.

However, Rodgers was not the same in 2022, finishing with a 77.5 PFF rating that was the second lowest of his 15-year tenure as starter and posting a 91.1 QB rating, his lowest single-season mark as a starter, leading to the Packers missing the playoffs at 8-9, after three straight seasons for 13 wins. In total, Rodgers completed just 64.6% of his passes for an average of 6.82 YPA, 26 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions last season.

A thumb injury was part of the problem, but Rodgers’ age was also a concern, with 2022 being his age 39 season and, with Love making progress behind the scenes and Rodgers salary set to increase significantly in 2023, the Packers finally made the decision to move on from Rodgers in favor of Love this off-season, sending Rodgers to the Jets for a second round pick in this year’s draft and a conditional second round pick next year that can become a first round pick if Rodgers meets some achievable benchmarks. 

Rodgers being gone opens up the job for Love, but what kind of play we can expect from him in 2023 is something of a mystery. Love struggled mightily in his only career start, completing 19 of 34 for 190 yards, a touchdown, and an interception, but that was back in 2021 and by all accounts Love has improved behind the scenes since then. Love showed that improvement in very limited action on the field in 2022, completing 14 of 21 for 195 yards, a touchdown, and no interceptions, but it’s hard to extrapolate anything from a very limited amount of what was mostly meaningless action, playing primarily in garbage time of games that were already decided.

The Packers know Love’s development better than anyone and it’s telling that they are comfortable making this kind of move and giving Love the keys to the car, but that doesn’t necessarily mean Love will be an upgrade even on the diminished version of Rodgers that we saw in 2022. Rodgers being traded likely had more to do with his age, salary, and the kind of return the Packers got for him than it has to do with the Packers viewing Love as a legitimate upgrade in the short-term. Love’s contract status also made it almost necessary for the Packers to get a look at him in 2023, the last cost-controlled year of his rookie contract.

Even with Rodgers gone, the Packers were faced with a tough decision this off-season on Love’s 5th year option for 2024. If the Packers picked it up, they would be guaranteeing about 20.272 million in 2024 to a player who has barely played for them yet, but if they declined it Love would be set to be a free agent next off-season and if he was even a middling starter in 2023, it would likely cost the Packers significantly more than the 5th year option to keep him long-term. The Packers did a good job finding a happy medium with Love, declining the option, but also signing him to a one-year extension for 2024 that guarantees him less than the 5th year option would have (13.5 million), but that also could pay Love more (up to 22.5 million) if he meets certain incentives. 

With that extension, the Packers are tied to Love as their starter for at least the next two seasons and will need him to play at a relatively high level, without another option on the roster. In fact, the Packers have arguably the worst backup quarterback situation in the league, with their only backup options currently being Danny Etling, a 2018 7th round pick with zero career attempts who briefly converted to receiver, and 5th round rookie Sean Clifford, both of whom would almost definitely struggle mightily if Love missed time with injury. The Packers should find a better backup option before training camp, especially with such an unproven starter. Love has upside, but might not be an upgrade even over the diminished performance they got from Aaron Rodgers last season and he could easily be a downgrade from Rodgers if his improvement behind the scenes doesn’t translate to live games.

Grade: C+

Receiving Corps

Along with his age and his injured thumb, a big part of the reason why Rodgers didn’t play up to his normal standards in 2022 was that he was throwing to a receiving corps that wasn’t up to its normal standards, with one of the least experienced receiving corps in the league. Things won’t be much better for Jordan Love in 2023 and, in fact, this group will be even less experienced this year, losing veteran receiver Allen Lazard in free agency, leaving them without their leading receiver from a year ago (60/788/6), and also losing by far their most experienced wide receiver Randall Cobb (34/417/1 in 2022).

Even without Lazard and Cobb though, there are reasons to expect this receiving corps to be better than a year ago, as the Packers have several talented young receivers with upside. The most promising of those receivers is probably Christian Watson, a 2nd round pick in 2022. Watson struggled to even get on the field early in the year, but became a regular starter by mid-season and caught 31 passes for 523 yards and 7 touchdowns in his final 8 games, while averaging 2.26 yards per route run (11th in the NFL among wide receivers) on the season. Watson was considered very raw entering the league, but things seemed to click for him in the second half of last season and, while he could be hurt by Rodgers’ absence, he still has a good chance to continue playing at a high level into 2023 and beyond. 

Romeo Doubs was the other rookie wide receiver who played a significant role for this team in 2022, seeing 529 snaps in 13 games, actually even more than Watson, who only played 507 snaps on the season as a result of his early season struggles. Doubs wasn’t as effective as Watson though, totaling a decent 42/425/3 slash line, but averaging just 1.36 yards per route run and earning just a 62.6 PFF rating, as opposed to 77.1 for Watson. Doubs was only a 4th round pick and doesn’t nearly have Watson’s upside, but he could take a step forward in year two as well, even if he ends up being an underwhelming #2 receiver.

The Packers also used another high pick on a wide receiver this year, taking Michigan State’s Jayden Reed in the second round and, while he’ll likely have some growing pains as a rookie, he also comes with a lot of upside and shouldn’t have much trouble winning the #3 receiver job in this offense, at the very least. His primary competition will be 2022 7th round pick Samori Toure, who played just 112 offensive snaps and caught just five passes as a rookie, as well as 5th and 7th round rookies Dontayvion Wicks and Grant DuBose, who are unlikely to have a significant impact in year one. With a complete lack of proven wide receivers, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if the Packers top-5 or top-6 wide receivers this year were all in their first and second years in the league. It’s a group that comes with a lot of downside, especially with an inexperienced signal caller throwing them the ball, but they also have obvious upside as well.

The Packers also are young at the tight end position this season, after letting middling veteran starter Robert Tonyan and talented veteran run blocker Marcedes Lewis leave in free agency. In their absence, the Packers will have 2020 3rd round pick Josiah Deguara, who has played just 657 career snaps and has averaged just 1.11 yards per route run in three seasons in the league, competing with rookies Luke Musgrave and and Tucker Kraft, who were selected in the second and third rounds in this year’s draft. Musgrave and Kraft have upside, but will almost definitely go through growing pains in year one, while Deguara has yet to show himself to be a capable starting caliber tight end. Like at wide receiver, this is a very young group with upside, but significant downside as well. 

Grade: C+

Running Backs

With an inexperienced receiving corps, the Packers put an emphasis on using their running backs in the passing game last season, with lead back Aaron Jones finishing second on the team behind Allen Lazard with 72 targets and backup AJ Dillon getting another 43 targets as well. Neither were efficient targets, totaling slash lines of 59/395/5 and 28/206/0 respectively, an average of 5.49 yards per target and 4.79 yards per target respectively, but with the Packers’ receiving corps remaining a question mark, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see both backs have similar passing game usage in 2023.

Jones was much more efficient as a runner than he was in the passing game, averaging 5.26 YPC on 213 carries, ranking 6th with a 56% carry success rate, and finishing as PFF’s 7th ranked running back overall, while earning PFF’s 2nd highest grade among running backs as a runner (90.7). That’s nothing new for Jones, who has averaged 5.11 YPC on 1,035 carries in six seasons in the league, while never receiving a run grade from PFF lower than 79.3 and finishing above 83 in four of six seasons. Going into his age 29 season, he’s getting up there in age for a running back, but he’s stayed relatively fresh splitting carries for most of his career (12 carries per game in 86 career games) and he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him continue playing well into 2023.

AJ Dillon wasn’t nearly as productive as a runner as Jones, averaging 4.14 YPC on 186 carries, but he was equally effective in keeping this offense on track, ranking 5th with a 57% carry success rate, and he also was PFF’s 5th ranked running back in terms of run grade (88.1). That’s similar to what Dillon did in 2021, when he averaged 4.29 YPC on 187 carries, ranked 1st with a 63% carry success rate, and was PFF’s 3rd ranked running back in run grade (90.0). He’s arguably the best #2 running back in the league and the 2020 2nd round pick may have further untapped upside, going into his 4th season in the league. Jones and Dillon give the Packers one of the best running back duos in the league and both backs are also capable of handling the load as the featured back for a stretch if the other one gets hurt.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

Offensive line was a concern for the Packers heading into 2022, but, despite the Packers’ disappointing season overall, the Packers’ offensive line was probably better than expected. The biggest concern going into last season was that arguably their two best offensive linemen, David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins, were coming off of significant injuries, but both played most of the season and turned in pretty good years, with Bakhtiari finishing as PFF’s 11th ranked offensive tackle in 11 starts (79.8 grade) and Jenkins finishing 12th among guards in 15 starts (72.3 grade). 

Jenkins could be even better in 2023, another year removed from the injury, still in his prime in his age 28 season. A 2019 2nd round pick, Jenkins has earned an above average grade from PFF in all four seasons in the league and had a 82.1 PFF grade in 2021 prior to going down with injury, so he comes with a pretty low floor and has the upside to be one of the best guards in the league if he plays as well as he did in 2021 before getting hurt. Jenkins also has the ability to move to tackle if needed, making five starts at right tackle in 2022.

Bakhtiari’s long-term outlook is not as favorable though, even another year removed from the injury that kept him out for almost all of the 2021 season. Bakhtiari should play more games than he did a year ago, when injuries kept him out of six contests, but unlike Jenkins, Bakhtiari is not in his prime anymore, going into his age 32 season, and durability remains a significant concern for him going forward, given how much time he has missed over the past two seasons. Bakhtiari was a better player than Jenkins in his prime, finishing in the top-7 among offensive tackles on PFF in 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2020 and, even at less than his best in 2022, he was still one of the better offensive tackles in the league, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he continued declining in 2023 and, even if he doesn’t, his best days are almost definitely behind him at this point.

With Bakhtiari missing six games last season, Zach Tom was forced into 489 rookie year snaps, but, despite only being a 4th round pick, Tom held up pretty well, finishing the season with a PFF grade of 68.3, while seeing action both at guard and tackle. This year, Tom will likely compete with Yosh Njiman for the right tackle job, with the loser of that battle providing depth as the swing tackle. Njiman went undrafted in 2019 and barely played in his first two seasons in the league, but he’s made 21 starts over the past two seasons with Bakhtiari and Jenkins missing time with injury and has held up decently, earning PFF grades of 63.2 and 63.1 respectively. Tom probably has a little more upside, but both are decent options on the right side.

With Jenkins healthy, Tom’s path to playing time at guard is likely blocked, with Jon Runyan locked in as the other starting guard. Runyan was only a 6th round pick in 2020, but he has made 33 starts over the past two seasons and has been decent, finishing with PFF grades of 65.1 and 62.6 respectively. He might not have the upside to be more than a decent starter, but he’s not a bad starting option and comes with a relatively low floor. He and Jenkins will be backed up by Royce Newman, who struggled across 451 snaps last season, after struggling across 1,084 snaps as a 4th round rookie in 2021. Newman could still have untapped upside and isn’t a bad backup, but would likely struggle if forced into significant action again in 2023.

Center Josh Myers completes this offensive line. The 2021 2nd round pick missed most of his rookie season with injury, limited to 293 snaps, but made all 17 starts last season and was decent, finishing with a 60.4 PFF grade. He hasn’t shown himself to be anything more than a decent starter thus far in his career, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him take a step forward in his third season in the league in 2023 and, even if he doesn’t, he should remain at least a capable starter. Outside of Bakhtiari and Jenkins, the former of whom is going into his age 32 with significant durability concerns, the Packers’ offensive line is pretty nondescript, but this is a solid unit overall.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The Packers’ defense was actually a bigger part of the problem last season than their offense, as their offense finished the year 11th in DVOA, while their defense finished 20th. A big part of the problem was the absence of stud edge defender Rashan Gary for the second half of the season after he suffered a torn ACL in week 9. The Packers weren’t a great defense even with Gary, but Gary had been one of the most effective pass rushers in the league prior to going down, totaling 6 sacks, 8 hits, and a ridiculous 18.6% pressure rate. He was PFF’s 14th ranked edge defender overall at the time of his injury, with his pass rush grade ranking 11th at the position.

That’s nothing new for Gary, a 2019 first round pick who had a dominant 2021 campaign as well, finishing 5th among edge defenders overall on PFF and totaling 9.5 sacks, 19 hits, and another ridiculous pressure rate of 18.1%. Gary took a couple years to breakout, but he was one of best pass rushers in the league at the time of his injury and, still only in his age 26 season, has a good chance to bounce back to at least close to his old form in his first season back from injury. He hasn’t had durability issues in the past (two games missed total across his first three seasons in the league) and his future is still really bright.

In Gary’s absence, 5th round rookie Kingsley Enagbare saw the biggest uptick in playing time, but he didn’t come close to matching Gary’s production, finishing his rookie season with a 9.8% pressure rate and a middling 61.4 PFF grade across 465 snaps. Enagbare could be better in his second season in the league, but I wouldn’t expect him to see as many snaps as he did a year ago. Not only is Gary returning, but the Packers also used their first round pick on Iowa edge defender Lukas Van Ness, who figures to be no worse than the Packers’ #3 edge defender as a rookie and who has the upside for a lot more.

Van Ness will push Preston Smith, the incumbent starter opposite Gary, for playing time, after Smith had a middling 2022 campaign in which he received a 66.4 PFF grade across 825 snaps and totalled 8.5 sacks, 14 hits, and a 10.1% pressure rate. Smith has had better years, including a 76.3 grade in 2018 and a 81.5 grade in 2021, but, aside from those two seasons, the 8-year veteran hasn’t received a grade higher than 67 from PFF and now he heads into his age 31 season, so his best days are almost definitely behind him and he could easily decline further. I would expect a smaller role for him in 2023 with Gary back and Van Ness added in the first round. This is a pretty deep and talented group overall, assuming Rashan Gary can return to form as their top edge defender.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

The Packers lost a pair of interior defenders this off-season who played significant snaps last season, Dean Lowry (482 snaps) and Jarran Reed (705 snaps). Both earned middling grades from PFF, 59.3 and 61.9 respectively, but Reed was at least effective as a pass rusher, totaling 2.5 sacks, 12 hits, and a 8.4% pressure rate from the interior and the Packers didn’t really do anything to replace either one. Instead, they will be relying on a couple younger players stepping into bigger roles, Devonte Wyatt and TJ Slaton.

Devonte Wyatt is the surer bet of the two, going in the first round a year ago and showing promise with a 69.9 PFF grade on 224 rookie year snaps. He has the upside to breakout as an above average every down interior defender in year two and, even if he doesn’t quite do that, he should be an upgrade over Lowry and Reed. Slaton, on the other hand, was only a 5th round pick in 2021 and has earned grades of 52.8 and 61.7 on snap counts of 266 and 333 in his first two seasons in the league respectively. He’ll primarily be counted on as a situational nose tackle, but the 6-5 340 pounder hasn’t shown much as a run stuffer either, earning grades of 44.7 and 61.9 against the run in his first two seasons in the league.

Kenny Clark remains as the Packers’ top interior defender, as he has been for several seasons. The 2016 1st round pick broke out in his second season in the league and received overall grades of 87.3, 90.2, and 79.9 from PFF in 2017, 2018, and 2019. His run defense has fallen off in recent years, but he has still remained a dominant interior pass rusher, with a 11.1% pressure rate over the past two seasons combined and 26.5 sacks, 34 hits, and a 10.5% pressure rate total since his breakout 2017 campaign. He’s still in the prime of his career in his age 28 season, so I would expect more of the same from him in 2023. He may continue struggling against the run, but he should remain a dominant interior pass rusher.

Depth is a concern with the Packers not adding any veterans of note to this group this off-season. They added Auburn’s Colby Wooden and Bowling Green’s Karl Brooks in the 4th and 6th round of the draft respectively, but neither one can be considered a reliable reserve rotational option in year one and if either was forced into a significant role by injuries ahead of them on the depth chart, they would almost definitely struggle. Clark and Wyatt have good upside as the Packers’ top-2 interior defenders, but the Packers’ other options aren’t reliable.

Grade: B

Linebackers

Not much has changed in the Packers’ linebacking corps this off-season, with De’Vondre Campbell and Quay Walker returning as every down players. Walker struggled in 2022, posting a 51.9 PFF grade on 846 snaps, but he was a rookie and the first round pick has the talent to take a big step forward in year two. Campbell, meanwhile, is a 7-year veteran, but didn’t break out until year 6 in 2021, finishing below average on PFF in four of his first five seasons in the league, maxing out with a 69.2 grade in 2017, before finishing the 2021 season with a 85.0 grade and the 2022 season with a 74.2 grade. Campbell is now in his age 30 season and could start to decline soon and, even after two good years, his history of inconsistency is still concerning, but he also has a good chance to remain at least an above average every down linebacker for another year.

Isaiah McDuffie also remains as the likely top reserve, after playing 175 nondescript snaps in 2022. McDuffie was only a 6th round pick in 2021 and has played just 176 total career snaps on defense, so he would likely prove to be overmatched if forced into a significant role by either Campbell or Walker missing an extended period of time, but he’s not a bad depth option. Campbell might not be as good in 2023 as he has been in 2021 and 2022, but any regression the Packers get from Campbell could be offset by Walker improving in year two and this is a solid linebacking corps overall.

Grade: B

Secondary

Things are mostly the same in the secondary for the Packers this season as well. The one big difference is the Packers let veteran safety Adrian Amos walk in free agency after a disappointing 2022 season in which he finished 88th among 96 eligible safeties on PFF with a grade of 53.4. The Packers didn’t really replace him though and their best option to start in his absence is likely Rudy Ford, who earned a 74.6 PFF grade on 443 snaps last season as the Packers’ third safety, but who has made just 10 career starts on defense in six seasons in the league and struggled with a 57.7 PFF grade on 423 snaps in the only other season of significant action in his career in 2021. It’s possible the 2017 6th round pick could prove to be a late bloomer and turn into a solid starter, but the odds are against it.

Ford’s primary competition for the starting role will be a pair of underwhelming free agency signings, Tarvarius Moore and Jonathan Owens. Moore was a third round pick by the 49ers in 2018, but has mostly made his living as a special teamer, making 13 defensive starts in five seasons in the league and maxing out with 541 snaps played in 2020, a year in which he managed a mediocre 60.2 PFF grade. Owens, meanwhile, made 17 starts for the Texans last season, but he finished as PFF’s 92nd ranked safety out of 96 eligible with a 48.3 PFF grade and the 2018 undrafted free agent has only played 178 other defensive snaps in his career outside of last season. 

The situation at safety is made worse by the fact that the player locked in as the other starter is Darnell Savage, who is coming off of a terrible season in which he finished as PFF’s 93rd ranked safety out of 96 eligible with a 47.5 PFF grade and who was briefly benched last season. Savage has had better days in the past, as the 2019 first round pick earned grades of 65.7 and 72.1 in his first two seasons in the league respectively, but he also struggled with a 57.3 PFF grade in 2021 and is no guarantee to find his old form again. The Packers could also get below average play at both safety spots again in 2023, even with Amos not being retained.

The other difference in this secondary from a year ago is the Packers should get a healthier season out of starting cornerback Eric Stokes, who was limited to 477 snaps in 9 games by injury last season. Stokes was struggling even before getting hurt, earning a 53.7 grade from PFF, but he was better in 14 starts as a rookie in 2021 (65.5) and the former first round pick has the talent to develop into an above average starter long-term. That doesn’t necessarily mean he’s going to make a big leap in year three in 2023, but he has a good chance to if he’s healthy and, even if he doesn’t, I would expect more out of him than the Packers got from him in 2022, when he struggled and missed half the season.

Keisean Nixon filled in admirably for Stokes as the third cornerback last season, with a 63.9 PFF grade on 290 snaps last season, but he shouldn’t be any higher than the 4th cornerback going into 2023, which is a better fit for him, considering the 2019 undrafted free agent is very unproven, playing just 564 total defensive snaps in his career. He’s flashed some potential, but could easily struggle if forced into significant action again in 2023.

Jaire Alexander and Rasul Douglas remain as the other two of the Packers’ top-3 cornerbacks. Alexander is their top cornerback and one of the best cornerbacks in the league. He finished last season as PFF’s 10th ranked cornerback with a 80.3 grade and isn’t a one-year wonder, finishing #1 among cornerbacks on PFF with a 90.7 grade in 2020, with a lost year due to injuries in 2021 in between. The 2018 first round pick has only missed five games in his other four seasons in the league, so he’s doesn’t really have a history of injuries and, still only going into his age 26 season, he’s very much in the prime of his career so I would expect him to remain one of the top cornerbacks in the league for years to come.

Douglas, meanwhile, is a journeyman who was with five different teams between being drafted in the 3rd round by the Panthers in 2017 and joining the Packers in 2021, but he has found a home in Green Bay, playing 734 snaps and 915 snaps respectively over the past two seasons and earning PFF grades of 74.5 and 71.1 respectively. Douglas also earned a 72.5 PFF grade on 660 snaps in 2018, so his solid play the last two seasons hasn’t come completely out of nowhere and, still only going into his age 28 season, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him keep it up for a third season in a row. Safety remains a position of weakness for the Packers in the secondary, but they should get good cornerback play again, perhaps even better than a year ago, with Eric Stokes returning from injury.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Packers have a wide range of outcomes this season because of the uncertainty around inexperience starting quarterback Jordan Love. Love has the upside to be at least a solid starting quarterback, but he also could prove to be a significant downgrade from Aaron Rodgers, for a Packers team that went 8-9 even with Rodgers. Beyond their quarterback concerns, the Packers also have a very inexperienced receiving corps and a questionable defense. In a weak NFC, the Packers could be a playoff team, but they’ll need Love to not be a significant downgrade under center.  I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 7-10, 2nd in NFC North