Pick of the Week
NYJ 20 (-3) NYG 13
High Confidence Picks
PHI 31 (-7) WAS 20
Medium Confidence Picks
MIN 24 (-1) GB 19
MIA 31 (-9.5) NE 17
SEA 24 (-3.5) CLE 17
DAL 23 LAR 20 (+7)
BUF 31 (-8.5) TB 19
Low Confidence Picks
BAL 31 (-9.5) ARZ 17
DET 30 (-7.5) LV 20
LAC 24 CHI 17 (+8.5)
HOU 26 (-3.5) CAR 20
SF 24 (-4.5) CIN 17
IND 24 (+1.5) NO 23 Upset Pick +110
No Confidence Picks
KC 27 DEN 20 (+7.5)
JAX 19 (-1.5) PIT 17
ATL 19 TEN 17 (+2.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3) at Buffalo Bills (4-3)
Typically the rule of thumb in non-divisional games on Thursdays is to bet on the home team as long as they are significantly better, as it’s very tough for inferior teams to travel to face an unfamiliar opponent on a short week. As a result, non-divisional home favorites of 3+ are 29-16 ATS on Thursdays, as long as both teams are on short rest. The Bills are only a half game better than the Buccaneers in the standings, but that trend applies here, as they have a significantly better point differential (+80 vs. -1) and rank 4th in DVOA, while the Buccaneers rank 20th. We’re not getting significant line value with the Bills as 8.5-point home favorites, as that is right where I have this line calculated, but the Bills are worth betting purely based on that aforementioned trend, with that trend increasing to 17-6 ATS for non-divisional favorites of more than a touchdown. This isn’t a big bet, but I like the Bills a good amount this week.
Buffalo Bills 31 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19
Pick against the spread: Buffalo -8.5
Confidence: Medium
Pick of the Week
DET 24 (+3) BAL 23 Upset Pick +130
High Confidence Picks
LAR 24 (-3) PIT 17
LV 23 (-2.5) CHI 16
SF 23 MIN 20 (+7)
Medium Confidence Picks
KC 31 (-5.5) LAC 23
SEA 31 (-7.5) ARZ 19
WAS 24 (-2.5) NYG 19
Low Confidence Picks
DEN 26 (+1.5) GB 24 Upset Pick +105
MIA 31 (+2.5) PHI 30 Upset Pick +125
ATL 17 (+2.5) TB 16 Upset Pick +125
No Confidence Picks
BUF 26 (-8.5) NE 17
CLE 23 IND 20 (+3.5)
NO 19 (-1.5) JAX 17
Jacksonville Jaguars (4-2) at New Orleans Saints (3-3)
This game is tough to make a decision on because there are two key questionable players on both sides, with Jacksonville’s quarterback Trevor Lawrence considered a gametime decision and New Orleans’ stud linebacker Demario Davis not practicing all week. If Lawrence is out and Davis isn’t, the Saints would be an obvious value pick as only 1.5-point home favorites, but it’s unlikely the line would remain there in that case.
My current calculated line, which assumes Lawrence and Davis will play at less than 100%, is right at New Orleans -1.5, so we’re not getting any value with either side as of this writing. The Saints do have the benefit of being at home on a short week in a non-divisional game, but that trend applies more to big home favorites, as home favorites of 3.5 or more in non-divisional Thursday games are 29-16 ATS all-time, but home favorites of three or less are just 17-13 ATS. I am going to go with the Saints for pick ‘em purposes for now just on the basis of that limited trend, but I can’t take them with any confidence and depending on the final injury report and where this line ends up, I may update this pick.
New Orleans Saints 19 Jacksonville Jaguars 17
Pick against the spread: New Orleans -1.5
Confidence: None
Pick of the Week
BAL 28 (-4.5) TEN 19
High Confidence Picks
LV 23 (-2.5) NE 17
Medium Confidence Picks
HOU 19 (+1.5) NO 17 Upset Pick +110
LAR 23 (-7) ARZ 13
Low Confidence Picks
KC 28 (-10.5) DEN 16
SF 24 (-9.5) CLE 13
JAX 23 IND 20 (+4.5)
MIA 34 (-14) CAR 17
ATL 24 (-2.5) WAS 20
DAL 30 (-2.5) LAC 26
DET 28 (-3) TB 24
PHI 26 (-6.5) NYJ 17
No Confidence Picks
BUF 30 (-15.5) NYG 13
MIN 30 CHI 27 (+3)
CIN 27 (-2.5) SEA 24
Denver Broncos (1-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-1)
Unlike the last few Thursday Night Football games, I don’t have a strong opinion on this one. Big home favorites tend to do well on a short week, as it’s very tough for a vastly inferior team to keep a game close on a short week, but that tends not to be the case in divisional matchups (double digit divisional favorites are just 6-6 ATS on a short week) as two teams being familiar with each other tends to cancel out the effect of the short week. The Broncos haven’t had much success against the Chiefs lately, losing 15 straight matchups against them dating back to 2015, but I’m not sure how much that matters because rosters and coaching staffs change all the time and a lot of those wins have been relatively close, with 9 of those 15 games decided by a margin that would fail to cover this 10.5-point spread, including 4 of the past 5.
The Chiefs have been the significantly better team this season, with a significant advantage in yards per play differential (+0.89 vs. -1.18), first down rate differential (+4.73% vs. -4.66%), and DVOA (6th ranked 25.5% vs. 30th ranked -30.9%), but the Broncos are healthier than they were earlier in the year, with talented safety Justin Simmons and talented middle linebacker Josey Jewell both returning last week. My calculated line still has the Chiefs favored by 12, but there isn’t nearly enough here for the Chiefs to be worth betting, even if they are my pick for pick ‘em purposes.
Kansas City Chiefs 28 Denver Broncos 16
Pick against the spread: Kansas City -10.5
Confidence: Low
Pick of the Week
KC 24 MIN 23 (+3.5)
High Confidence Picks
None
Medium Confidence Picks
WAS 26 CHI 23 (+6)
ATL 24 (-1.5) HOU 20
PHI 26 LAR 24 (+4.5)
IND 20 (+2.5) TEN 19 Upset Pick +120
NYJ 17 (+2.5) DEN 16 Upset Pick +120
LV 20 (-1.5) GB 16
Low Confidence Picks
BAL 20 (-4.5) PIT 13
NE 20 (-1) NO 17
MIA 34 (-12.5) NYG 20
DET 27 (-9) CAR 17
SF 25 (-3.5) DAL 20
No Confidence Picks
CIN 23 (-3) ARZ 20
BUF 25 JAX 20 (+5.5)
Chicago Bears (0-4) at Washington Commanders (2-2)
Normally the rule of thumb is to take non-divisional home favorites on Thursday Night Football, as it tends to be very tough for teams to travel and face a superior team outside of their division on a short week, leading to non-divisional home favorites being 46-28 ATS on Thursday Night Football all-time, including 29-15 ATS as favorites of more than a field goal. However, there is an even stronger trend in play here, as the Commanders are coming off of a tough overtime loss against the Eagles last week, which should make them extra exhausted on a short week, with teams going just 3-22 ATS all-time on Thursday Night Football after an overtime matchup when their opponent is not coming off an overtime matchup, including just 1-12 ATS as favorites.
We’re also getting some line value with the Bears, as 6-point road underdogs here in Washington. The Commanders are the better team, but not by a significant margin, as they rank 24th in DVOA to Chicago’s 31st, while holding slight margins in yards per play differential (-0.79 vs. -1.06) and first down rate differential (+2.63 vs. -2.23%) and a three point edge in my roster rankings. My calculated lne has the Commanders favored by 4.5, which is what this line was last week on the early line, before moving up to 6 this week.
That line movement is the result of the Commanders playing the Eagles close, but the Eagles also barely beat the Patriots and Vikings, who are also mediocre teams, while the Commanders don’t have any wins by more than four points, despite games against the Cardinals and Broncos, who are among the worst teams in the league. The Bears should be able to keep this one close as well, especially with the Commanders being in a near impossible spot after going to overtime last week. The Bears are worth betting at +6.
Washington Commanders 27 Chicago Bears 24
Pick against the spread: Chicago +6
Confidence: Medium
Football Fan Spot 