Year: 2024

Detroit Lions 2024 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2024 NFL Season Previews, Lions

Quarterback

Three years ago, the Lions kicked off a multi-year rebuilding process by trading away long-time franchise quarterback Matt Stafford to the Rams. The Lions had compiled just a 14-33-1 record over the previous three seasons with no playoff victories in Stafford’s 12-year tenure with the team and, with Stafford heading into his age 33 season in 2021, he demanded a trade, a request the Lions were willing to oblige, in need of a different direction as a team. The Lions could have traded Stafford for a top-10 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft and tried to shorten the rebuilding process, but instead they took a pair of first round picks from the Rams in 2022 and 2023, a 2021 3rd round pick, and former Rams quarterback Jared Goff, who had fallen out of favor with his old team.

Goff is 6 years younger than Stafford, but he was expected to be a downgrade under center, the 51.8 million guaranteed he was owed in the next two seasons was actually more than the 43 million that Stafford’s contract was set to pay him over those two seasons and, ultimately, most viewed Goff as a stopgap solution under center, rather than a long-term solution. Goff completed 63.4% of his passes for an average of 7.51 YPA, 107 touchdowns, and 55 interceptions in 69 starts in five seasons with the Rams, who selected him #1 overall in the 2016 NFL Draft, but the success he had was considered a product of the offensive system and talent he had around him with the Rams.

In Goff’s first season in Detroit, he predictably struggled on a team with much less talent around the quarterback and an inferior coaching staff, completing 67.2% of his passes for an average of just 6.57 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions for a Lions team that went just 3-13-1. However, the Lions got a new offensive coordinator in Ben Johnson for the 2022 season, which proved to be a huge upgrade, and they rapidly improved the rest of their roster, mostly through strong drafts. 

Their offense took a big step forward first, leading to the Lions improving to 9-8 in 2022, with Goff completing 65.1% of his passes for an average of 7.56 YPA, 29 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, and then the defense followed with a big step forward of their own in 2023, leading to the Lions finishing with a 12-5 record and making the NFC Championship, their first 12+ win season and their first NFC Championship appearance since 1991. Goff finished the 2023 season with a 67.3% completion percentage, 7.56 YPA, 30 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions on a team that finished 7th in total DVOA, 5th in offensive DVOA, and 13th in defensive DVOA.

In 2024, the Lions are mostly running it back. They brought back their top-7 and 14 of their top-16 in terms of offensive snaps played, as well as 10 of their top-14 in terms of defensive snaps played. However, their championship window might be smaller than most realize. Many of their talented young players will be up for extensions in the next couple off-seasons and it will be tough for the Lions to pay everyone, especially since they had to give quarterback Jared Goff a massive 4-year, 212 million dollar extension this off-season, making him the second highest paid quarterback in the league in average annual salary, ahead of what would have been the final year of his contract in 2024. 

Goff’s cap hit doesn’t explode right away, but it soon will and it will be tough for the Lions to keep the amount of talent around him that Goff will need for this team to be competitive at the highest level. The track record of non-elite quarterbacks being paid at the highest level is not good, with the only quarterbacks who have accounted for more than 11% of their team’s cap and won the Super Bowl being Hall of Famers or future Hall of Famers. Goff is good enough to win a Super Bowl, but only on a team loaded with talent, the kind of talent that is very hard to keep around a quarterback who is one of the highest paid in the league. The Lions should remain one of the best teams in the league in 2024, but if they can’t win it all this season, they might find their Super Bowl window will close faster than anticipated. 

Injuries have never been a big concern for Goff, as he’s missed just 4 games due to injury in 8 seasons in the league, but if he happens to miss time, the Lions would likely turn to Hendon Hooker, who was drafted in the 3rd round in the 2023 NFL Draft. Hooker has never thrown a regular season pass in his career, after missing most of his rookie season rehabbing from a torn ACL that he suffered in his final collegiate season, but Hooker could have been a second, or even a first round pick he had not suffered that injury and, if he makes a full recovery, he could easily develop into one of the better backup quarterbacks in the league. That’s far from a guarantee and he would still probably be a noticeable downgrade from Goff if he was forced into action, but this is still a better backup quarterback situation than the majority of teams in the league.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

One of the key young additions the Lions have added in their recent drafts is Penei Sewell, who they drafted 7th overall in 2021. Sewell showed promise with a 77.0 PFF grade as a rookie, splitting time between right tackle and left tackle, filling in for an injured Taylor Decker, and then he broke out in years two and three, once becoming a full-time right tackle opposite Decker, receiving PFF grades of 80.6 and 90.7 respectively over the past two seasons. 

Still only in his age 24 season, it’s possible Sewell could continue getting even better going forward and, even if he doesn’t, he seems likely to be one of the best offensive linemen in the league for years to come. The Lions paid handsomely to keep him on a long-term extension this off-season, making him the highest paid offensive lineman in the league in terms of average annual salary on a 4-year, 112 million dollar deal that was added on to the final two years of his rookie deal, but Sewell should prove to be well worth that contract and is the type of player you can’t let get away.

Taylor Decker will continue starting opposite Sewell at the left tackle spot. Also a former first round pick, back in 2016, Decker has manned that spot since his rookie year and has done well there, making 112 total starts in his career and finishing above 70 on PFF in seven of eight seasons, including six straight seasons and a 77.3 PFF grade in 2023. Decker now enters his age 30 season, but hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet and, even if he does drop off a little, he should remain at least an above average starter. 

Center Frank Ragnow is also a former first round pick who plays at a high level, as the 2018 1st round pick has made 80 starts in six seasons in the league and has finished above 70 on PFF in five straight seasons, including three seasons over 80 and a career best 88.1 in 2023, good for 1st best among centers on PFF. Still in the prime of his career in his age 28 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2024, even if he isn’t quite as good as his career best year from 2023.

The Lions weren’t quite as soon at guard last season, as compared to tackle and center, but they still got mostly solid play at those spots, with Graham Glasgow (15 starts), Jonah Jackson (12 starts), and Halapoulivaati Vaitai (3 starts) receiving grades of 75.1, 59.7, and 68.3 respectively from PFF. Jackson and Vaitai weren’t retained this off-season, but Glasgow was re-signed to a 3-year, 20 million dollar deal to start at one guard spot, while free agent signing Kevin Zeitler will start at the other, after signing for 6 million on a 1-year deal this off-season.

Glasgow has made 106 starts in eight seasons in the league since going in the third round in 2016 and has mostly been a solid starter, but last season was actually the best season of his career in terms of PFF grade and, now heading into his age 32 season, it’s unlikely he’ll be able to repeat the best season of his career for the second straight season. He has finished above 60 on PFF in six of the last seven seasons, including four seasons over 70, so he could remain a solid starter even if he isn’t as good as he was a year ago, but he also had a 59.3 grade as recently as 2022 and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he declined significantly from a year ago, especially when you consider his age.

Zeitler’s age is also a concern, as he now heads into his age 34 season and just had the second worst full season grade of his 12-year career (181 starts) in 2023, but he still had a 69.3 PFF grade and, even if he does decline further, he could still be a solid starter for the Lions. In his prime, Zeitler was one of the best guards in the league, with PFF grades over 70 in ten of his twelve seasons, including a 74.0 PFF grade as recently as 2022, and three seasons over 80, so even at less than his best, he should still be a worthwhile signing for the Lions, unless his abilities happen to completely fall off a cliff.

Depth is a concern for this group. Last year they had six starting caliber offensive linemen going into the season, but with Jackson and Vaitai both gone and only Zeitler being added, their depth is pretty suspect now. At guard Kayode Awosika (252 snaps) and Colby Sordal (253 snaps) both struggled in limited action last season. Sordal was only a 5th round rookie and could be better in year two, but he could still struggle even if he improves, while Awosika went undrafted in 2021 and has mostly struggled across 450 career snaps. At center, the Lions don’t have any reserves who were drafted in this year’s draft or who have ever played an offensive snap in the NFL, though they would probably slide Glasgow inside to center, where he has experience, and start either Awosika or Sordal in Glasgow’s spot at guard, in case of a Glasgow injury. Still, their lack of depth at both guard and center is a concern. 

Meanwhile at tackle, Dan Skipper will probably remain their swing tackle and he was decent on 101 snaps last season (66.9 PFF grade), but the 2017 undrafted free agent is already in his age 30 and has played just 546 career snaps (6 starts), with his career high 387 snaps coming in a 2022 campaign in which he received a 43.9 grade from PFF, so he’s a very underwhelming swing tackle option. The Lions did use a 4th round pick on Giovanni Manu to compete for the swing tackle job, but he would probably struggle if forced to start for an extended period of time in case of injury. The Lions still have arguably the best starting five offensive line in the league, but their lack of depth can’t go unmentioned. 

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

Part of the reason for the Lions being able to quickly rebuild through the draft was the extra draft capital the Lions got from the Rams in the Stafford trade, including a pair of first round picks, but the Lions have also found steals outside of the first round, which has been more important to their quick rebuild. Probably the biggest of those steals was 2021 5th round pick Amon-Ra St. Brown. St. Brown immediately exceeded his draft slot with a 90/912/5 slash line and a 1.74 yards per route run average as a rookie and he’s only gotten better since then, with a 106/1161/6 slash line and a 2.40 yards per route run average in 2022 and a 119/1515/10 slash line and a 2.63 yards per route run average last season, when he also finished 7th among wide receivers on PFF with a 90.6 overall grade. 

Still only in his age 25 season, St. Brown is just now entering his prime and should be one of the best wide receivers in the league for years to come. Going into the final year of his rookie deal in 2024, St. Brown wasn’t cheap to extend, receiving a 4-year, 120 million dollar deal this off-season that makes him the third highest paid wide receiver in the league in average annual salary, but he should prove to be well worth that contract.

The Lions also found tight end Sam LaPorta in the second round of last year’s draft and he immediately broke out as one of the best tight ends in the league, ranking 5th among tight ends in receiving yardage with a 86/889/10 slash line, 6th in yards per route run with 1.76, and 5th among tight ends with a 76.5 overall grade from PFF. All that is even more impressive when you consider that tight ends, including some of the best in the league, almost always take at least a year to develop into useful pass catchers. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see him be even better in year two in 2024. With three years left of cheap team control, LaPorta should remain a very talented complementary pass catcher behind St. Brown for years to come.

Ironically, the one receiver the Lions did use a first round pick on, Jameson Williams, has not come close to living up to the billing yet. The Lions knew they wouldn’t get much out of Williams in year one when he took him 12th overall in 2022 just a few months removed from a torn ACL, but Williams played just 78 rookie year snaps and then missed another five games in 2023 due to suspension and injury and he didn’t play all that well even when on the field, managing just a 1.47 yards per route run average and a 24/354/2 slash line. Williams is still only in his age 23 season and had the talent to be a top-5 pick before his injury, so I wouldn’t give up on him taking a step forward, possibly even a big one, in year three, but he’s been a big disappointment thus far in his career, even with the caveat that the Lions knew he’d miss most of his rookie year when they drafted him.

Williams will at least get a lot of opportunity for playing time and targets in this receiving corps, as the Lions are very thin behind St. Brown and LaPorta, who should both continue getting huge target shares. Josh Reynolds was third on the team in receiving with a 40/608/5 slash line in 2023, but he wasn’t retained this off-season and the Lions didn’t do anything to replace him, instead banking on Williams taking a step forward. Behind St. Brown and Williams at wide receiver, the Lions’ two best options are probably Kalif Raymond and Donovan Peoples-Jones.

Raymond was third among Lions receivers with a 35/489/1 slash line last season, and also had slash lines of 48/576/4 and 47/616/0 in 2021 and 2022 respectively, but he’s never exceeded those receiving totals in eight years in the league and that’s unlikely to start in 2024, now his age 30 season. Peoples-Jones had a 61/839/3 slash line in 2022 for the Browns, but was not that efficient with a 1.46 yards per route run average and took a back seat in the passing game in Cleveland in 2023, before getting sent to Detroit in a mid-season trade and continuing to contribute very little, finishing the year with a 13/155/0 slash line and 0.60 yards per route run average between the two teams. Peoples-Jones is at least young, only in his age 25 season, but the 2020 6th round pick has averaged just 1.38 yards per route run for his career and doesn’t have the talent to develop into much more than he’s been throughout his career.

At tight end, the Lions retained top backup Brock Wright on a 3-year, 12 million dollar deal, matching the contract the 2021 undrafted free agent received from the 49ers in restricted free agency this off-season. He has just 43 career catches and a 1.08 yards per route run average, so he won’t contribute much in the passing game, but he’s at least a solid blocker and you could do a lot worse than him as your #2 tight end. St. Brown and LaPorta highlight a very top heavy receiving corps, but Jameson Williams at least has upside as the 3rd receiving option, while Kalif Raymond and Donovan Peoples-Jones aren’t bad even if they’re underwhelming.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

The Lions also have used a first round pick on a running back recently, taking Jahmyr Gibbs 12th overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. It was a controversial decision because the Lions had just given a 3-year, 18 million dollar deal to veteran running back David Montgomery in free agency and because running backs taken in the first round are rarely worth it, but the Lions are a run heavy team that had enough opportunity for both Montgomery and Gibbs and they also had a lot of young talent on both sides of the field and could avoid to take a luxury position like running back.

Gibbs’ rookie season started off slow, as he had just 13.3 touches per game (9.8 carries, 3.5 catches) in his first 4 games, but he took over a bigger role when Montgomery missed 3 games with injury, averaging 22.7 touches (17.0 carries, 5.7 catches) in those 3 games and then he continued having a bigger role even after Montgomery returned, averaging 14.4 touches per game (11.7 carries, 2.7 catches) in the final 9 games of the season, while Montgomery averaged 15.0 touches per game (13.9 carries, 1.1 catches). If you look just at those final 9 games, Gibbs produced at a level that extrapolates over 17 games to 200 carries for 1,031 yards and 15 touchdowns (5.15 YPC), with a 45/285/2 slash line as a receiver, while Montgomery produced at a level that extrapolates over 17 games to 236 carries for 1190 yards and 13 touchdowns (5.04 YPC), with a 19/96/0 slash line as a receiver,

Montgomery only averaged 3.94 YPC on 915 carries in four seasons with the Bears before joining the Lions last season, but Montgomery was on some bad offenses with bad blocking in Chicago, so it’s not that surprising that he’s been significantly better in a better situation in Detroit, finishing his first season in Detroit with a 4.63 YPC average. However, Gibbs averaged 5.19 YPC on the season and is a much more talented running back. Going into 2024 and Gibbs’ second season in the league, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Gibbs get an even bigger share of the running back touches, but the Lions ranked 7th in the league in carries last season and should wind up around there again this season, so there will be plenty of opportunity for both running backs.

The area Gibbs struggled the most in as a rookie was in the passing game, ironic considering that was expected to be his biggest strength. His 52/316/1 slash line looks good, but he only averaged 0.97 yards per route run and 4.45 yards per target, so he wasn’t that efficient with his opportunity. He has a good chance to be significantly more efficient in that aspect in year two though and he’s still the better of the Lions’ top-2 backs in the passing game, with Montgomery averaging 0.72 yards per route run and 4.88 yards per target a year ago and 1.00 yards per route run and 6.22 yards per target for his career. 

Behind Gibbs and Montgomery, the Lions have Craig Reynolds, who had 41 carries for 179 yards (4.37 YPC) and 5 catches for 47 yards last season, mostly as an injury replacement when Gibbs or Montgomery missed time. Reynolds only has 142 touches in five seasons in the league, with but all two of those coming in the past three seasons, but he has a decent 4.29 YPC average and is better than a lot of #3 backs. Still, the run heavy Lions decided to use a 4th round pick in this year’s draft on Sione Vaki, who could end up beating out Reynolds for that #3 back job in a very deep running back group.

Grade: A-

Edge Defenders

After the Lions went 3-13-1 in the first year of their rebuild, they received the #2 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft and used it on edge defender Aidan Hutchinson, who has been a big part of their improvement in recent years, proving to be more than worth where he was selected. As a rookie, Hutchinson finished with 9.5 sacks, 6 hits, and a 9.4% pressure rate, while excelling against the run, and received a 80.7 PFF overall grade. In year two, Hutchinson got even better, finishing with 11.5 sacks, 23 hits, and a 16.2% pressure rate, while ranking 9th among edge defenders in overall PFF grade with 91.0, despite almost never coming off the field, playing 986 of a possible 1,090 defensive snaps, 90.5% and 3rd most in the league among edge defenders. Still only in his age 24 season, the sky’s the limit for Hutchinson, who should remain one of the top players at his position for years to come.

Aside from Hutchinson, the Lions didn’t have another edge defender play more than 400 snaps for them last season. Josh Paschal (399 snaps), Charles Harris (291 snaps), and Romeo Okwara (249 snaps) ranked 2nd, 3rd, and 4th on the team in snaps played among pure edge defenders, while John Cominsky (566 snaps) split time between the edge and the interior. The Lions are hoping that will change this season with the addition of Marcus Davenport in free agency on a 1-year, 6.5 million dollar deal.

Davenport was a first round pick in 2018 and has shown that level of talent when healthy, totaling a 12.9% pressure rate for his career, while finishing above 70 on PFF in five of six seasons in the league, including two seasons over 80. However, he’s also never played more than 533 snaps in a season due to injury, while missing 32 games in six seasons in the league. Davenport is still only in his age 28 season and could be an above average starter for the Lions if healthy, something they lacked opposite Hutchinson a year ago, but he’s also likely to miss more time at some point, which is why he had to settle for a 1-year deal in free agency.

Harris and Okwara weren’t retained this off-season, but the Lions still have Josh Paschal and are expecting him to play a big role as a reserve. His 399 snaps last season came in just 12 games, with 5 games missed due to injury, and he was a 2nd round pick in 2022 who still has untapped potential. He hasn’t shown much as a pass rusher in two seasons in the league, totaling just 3 sacks, 3 hits, and a 6.6% pressure rate in 22 games, but he’s at least been a solid run stuffer in limited action and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him take a step forward as a pass rusher in year three, especially if he can stay healthier than he’s been (12 games missed in two seasons in the league).

The Lions are also hoping for more out of another third year edge defender, James Houston, who was limited to 31 snaps in two games due to injury last season. Houston was only a 6th round pick in 2022 and played just 140 snaps as a rookie, but he made the most of them, excelling as a situational pass rusher with 8 sacks, 4 hits, and a 18.5% pressure rate, while receiving a 80.2 overall grade from PFF. It’s a very small sample size and Houston is still a relatively unproven player who was not a high draft pick, but, at the very least, the Lions should get more out of him in 2024 than they did in his injury plagued 2023 season. 

John Cominsky will also continue seeing some snaps on the edge like he did a year ago, but he’s mostly just a run stuffer as an edge defender, with a 7.7% pressure rate in 2023 and a 9.4% pressure rate for his career (57 games in five seasons). There are question marks in this group behind Hutchinson, but they at least have upside if Davenport can stay healthy and Paschal and Houston can progress in year three, and Hutchinson is one of the best players in the league at his position, so he elevates this group significantly by himself.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

The Lions have also drafted a talented interior defender in recent years, taking Alim McNeill in the 3rd round in the 2021 NFL Draft. McNeill took a couple years to develop into the player he was in 2023, but he still had solid grades of 60.1 and 69.8 from PFF on snap counts of 422 and 779 respectively in his first two seasons in the league, before breaking out with a 88.5 PFF grade on 559 snaps in 13 games last season, making him PFF’s 6th highest ranked interior defender.

McNeill totaled 5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 9.8% pressure rate as a pass rusher last season and was equally good as a run stopper. He’s a one-year wonder in terms of playing at that level, but he’s also still only in his age 24 season and could easily continue being one of the best interior defenders in the league for years to come and, even if he isn’t quite as good as he was a year ago, he could make up for it by being healthier than he was in 2023, when he missed four games.

The rest of this interior defender group was underwhelming a year ago, but the Lions hope they fixed that by signing DJ Reader from the Bengals to a 2-year, 22 million dollar deal in free agency this off-season. Reader has been one of the best run stopping interior defenders in the league in recent years, finishing above 70 on PFF in run defense grade in 6 of the past 7 seasons, with the exception being a a 2020 campaign in which he was limited to just 5 games by injury and still had a 69.3 PFF grade against the run. 

The big 6-3 335 pound Reader only has 9.5 sacks in 106 career games, but he’s a better pass rusher than that suggests, as he also has 38 hits and a 8.4% pressure rate in his career. Durability has been a concern for him in recent years, costing him 22 games in the past four seasons combined, and now he heads into his age 30 season, so he could start to decline, but he should still be a massive upgrade over Benito Jones, who had a 37.4 PFF grade on 566 snaps last season and was subsequently not retained as a free agent this off-season.

Behind McNeill and Reader, the Lions have John Cominsky, a hybrid player who I talked about in the edge defender section, as well as a pair of young players they are hoping for more out of this year, Levi Onwuzurike and Brodric Martin. Onwuzurike was a 2nd round pick in 2021, but disappointed with a 43.2 PFF grade on 396 snaps as a rookie and then missed the entire 2022 season due to injury, before being limited to 132 snaps in 10 games last season by more injuries. 

Onwuzurike did play significantly better than last season than he did as a rookie though, with a 68.1 PFF grade. Durability is still a concern, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him be a useful reserve/rotational player as long as he’s healthy, now in his fourth season in the league. Martin, meanwhile, spent his entire 2023 season as a healthy scratch, despite being a 3rd round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. His career obviously isn’t off to a good start, but he came into the league with a lot of talent and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him develop into a useful reserve in 2024. At the very least, he’ll give them more by default than he did a year ago. With the addition of DJ Reader as a starter opposite Alim McNeill, this is a talented position group, even if their depth is unproven.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The Lions used one of their two first round picks in last year’s draft to take linebacker Jack Campbell, which has not been one of their better selections. The value of taking Campbell, who many projected to only be a base package run stopper, in the first round was questioned from the start and those questions haven’t gone away after Campbell finished his rookie season with a 57.3 PFF grade on 637 snaps. Campbell played well against the run with a 75.9 run defense grade from PFF, but he struggled mightily in coverage with a 43.9 PFF grade. He could take a step forward in year two, but he’ll still probably be a liability in coverage and for a non-rush linebacker to be worth a first round pick in the modern NFL, they have to develop into a well-rounded player who is not a liability in any situation.

Campbell actually finished third among Lions linebackers in snaps played last season. Alex Anzalone led the way with 1,005 snaps. A 3rd round pick in 2017, Anzalone was a big durability concern early in his career in New Orleans, as he missed 26 of a possible 64 games in four seasons there, while maxing out at 525 snaps played in a season, and then in his first season in Detroit in 2021 he struggled mightily in by far the biggest snap count of his career, with a 35.4 PFF grade on 827 snaps, but he’s been better with PFF grades of 59.2 and 68.1 over the past two seasons, while surpassing 1,000 snaps played in both seasons and mostly avoiding injuries. Anzalone is now going into his age 30 season and could either start declining in 2024 or see his role decreased in favor of the second year Campbell, but it wouldn’t be a big surprise to see Anzalone be a capable every down linebacker for the second straight season.

The Lions also have Derrick Barnes, another young linebacker who could see a bigger snap count in 2024. A 4th round pick in 2021, Barnes struggled mightily with a 30.1 PFF grade on 448 snaps as a rookie, but he improved significantly with a 62.3 PFF grade on 346 snaps in his second season in the league in 2022 and carried that over to a bigger role in 2023, with a 62.1 PFF grade on 704 snaps. He’s an unspectacular player and probably won’t ever be anything more than an average starter, but this is an unspectacular Lions’ linebacking corps overall, so Barnes could be deserving of more playing time.

The Lions also have another young linebacker, Malcolm Rodriguez. He was only a 6th round pick in 2022, but wasn’t bad in a big rookie year role, with a 62.8 PFF grade on 611 snaps. With Campbell being added and Barnes taking over a bigger role, Rodriguez was relegated to a nondescript 120 snaps in 12 games played as a reserve last season, but he could earn his way into more playing time in year three. Given the at least decent promise he showed as a rookie, he’s at least a good reserve option. This is an unspectacular group overall, but they at least have some young talent with promise.

Grade: B-

Secondary

The Lions have done a great job rebuilding this roster quickly, but the cornerback position was a position of weakness last season, Only one of the five cornerbacks who played more than 100 snaps for the Lions finished with a PFF grade above 60 and that player was Brian Branch, another talented young player the Lions have, a 2023 second round pick who received a 78.1 PFF grade on 736 snaps as a rookie, but a part-time cornerback who could see more time at safety in 2024. 

This off-season, the Lions made improving the cornerback position a priority, trading a third round pick to the Buccaneers for Carlton Davis, who is owed 14.5 million in the final year of his contract in 2024, and then using 1st and 2nd round picks on Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw, a pair of cornerbacks who were both considered good values at their draft slot. The Lions also parted ways with three of the four cornerbacks who saw significant action for them last season and struggled, with only Kindle Vildor (57.6 PFF grade on 200 snaps) returning as a deep reserve who isn’t guaranteed a roster spot. Davis and Arnold are currently expected to start outside, but Rakestraw could see a role as well, especially if Branch plays more safety in 2024.

The veteran Davis will probably be the Lions’ de facto #1 cornerback while Arnold and Rakestraw develop. Davis has been a solid starter for most of his career, but he fell to a 58.2 PFF grade last season, after surpassing 60 on PFF in each of his first five seasons in the league, including a career best 70.4 in 2019. Davis is only going into his age 28 season, so he has some bounce back potential, but he’s also suffered a lot of injuries throughout his career, never playing more than 14 games in a season and missing 23 games total in six seasons in the league, so it’s possible that his injuries have caught up with him and made him age quicker, in which case it wouldn’t be a surprise if he continued struggling in 2024. Even if he bounces back, he’ll almost definitely miss more time at some point this season. Still, it wouldn’t be hard for him and the Lions’ two rookie cornerbacks to be an upgrade over what the Lions had at the position a year ago.

The Lions also signed veteran Amik Robertson in free agency and could get something out of Emmanuel Moseley, who is coming off of two injury plagued seasons. Robertson had a much easier path to playing time before Arnold and Rakestraw were drafted, but the 2-year, 9.25 million dollar deal the Lions gave him suggests they value him at least decently, so he could still earn a role even with the two rookies being added, especially if Branch plays more safety this season or if Carlton Davis misses more time with injury. Capable of being on the slot and outside, Robertson has received decent grades of 64.1 and 63.4 from PFF on snap counts of 677 and 674 over the past two seasons respectively and the 2020 4th round pick is only in his age 26 season.

Moseley might be the odd man out in a suddenly deep position group. He flashed potential early in his career in San Francisco with PFF grades of 70.0, 58.3, 68.7, and 70.9 respectively in his first four seasons of playing time, but he never played more than 602 snaps in a season due to injury, while missing 22 games in those four seasons, including 12 games missed in his final season in San Francisco with a torn ACL. The Lions took a chance on him in free agency last off-season, only to see him tear his other ACL just two snaps into the season. Still only in his age 28 season, Moseley could have some bounce back potential if he’s healthy, but he’ll start the season at best as a deep reserve. It will likely be between him and Kindle Vildor, a 2020 5th round pick who has struggled throughout his career, for the last spot on the cornerback depth chart, a battle Moseley should be favored in.

The reason Brian Branch could play more safety in 2024 is because the Lions lost Tracy Walker (541 snaps) and CJ Gardner-Johnson (186 snaps) this off-season and didn’t replace them. The Lions still have Kerby Joseph (909 snaps) and Ifeatu Melifonwu (398 snaps) and both will compete for starting jobs, but Branch will probably see more action at this position as well. Kerby was a 3rd round pick in 2022 and has made 29 starts in 32 games in two seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 64.0 and 57.7 respectively. He hasn’t been more than a capable starter in two years in the league and he took a step back in year two, but he’s only in his age 24 season and could take a step forward to have his best season yet in 2024. Even if he doesn’t, he should be considered the favorite to keep his starting job.

Melifonwu was also a 3rd round pick, back in 2021. He’s only played 738 snaps total in three seasons in the league, so he doesn’t have the experience that Joseph has, but he flashed a lot of potential with a 85.6 PFF grade in 6 starts as an injury replacement in 2023 and, even if Branch plays more safety this season, Melifonwu could still earn an expanded role in 2024. Melifonwu is a projection to a larger role and was mediocre in his first two seasons before showing his potential last season, but it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see him be at least a capable sub package player. The Lions’ secondary was a bit of a weakness last season, especially at cornerback, but this is a much deeper group than a year ago, even if they lack top end talent besides of Brian Branch.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Lions’ championship window might be closing soon, as it will be tough for them to keep all their talent under the cap long-term, but they are very much in the mix as contenders in 2023, with one of the best rosters in the league. Already one of the best teams in the league a year ago, the Lions are arguably better this season due to off-season additions like DJ Reader, Marcus Davenport, and Carlton Davis, among others. In terms of average annual value of their roster, a stat that heavily correlates with winning percentage, the Lions rank 4th, up from 23rd a year ago. That kind of spending isn’t sustainable long-term, but it should put them on the short list for Super Bowl contenders in 2024, especially since they play in the much weaker NFC.

Prediction: 14-3, 1st in NFC North

Minnesota Vikings 2024 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2024 NFL Season Previews, Vikings

Quarterback

Six off-seasons ago, the Vikings made a big decision to sign veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins in free agency. The Vikings had just made the NFC Championship game with third string quarterback Case Keenum, who surprisingly played at a high level, but felt Keenum couldn’t would not repeat that level of play and opted to give big money to Cousins, who they felt was the missing piece on a strong overall roster. Cousins was initially signed to a 3-year, 84 million dollar deal and ultimately took him 185 million during his six seasons in Minnesota, but as a result of that, the Vikings found it hard to keep talent around the quarterback, which combined with untimely injuries and key players getting older, led to the Vikings going 50-37-1 with Cousins under center and winning just one playoff game.

Cousins himself wasn’t bad at all, completing 67.9% of his passes for an average of 7.55 YPA, 171 touchdowns, and 55 interceptions, but the track record of non-elite quarterbacks being paid at the highest level is not good, with the only quarterbacks who have accounted for more than 11% of their team’s cap and won the Super Bowl being Hall of Famers or future Hall of Famers. Cousins is good enough to win a Super Bowl, but only on a team loaded with talent, the kind of talent that is very hard to keep around a quarterback who is one of the highest paid in the league.

This off-season, the Vikings opted to move on from Cousins and not get into a bidding war with the Atlanta Falcons for his services, with Cousins signing a 4-year, 180 million dollar deal that makes him the 8th highest paid quarterback in the league by average annual salary, despite the fact that Cousins now heads into his age 36 season and is coming off of a torn Achilles tendon. Instead, the Vikings used a first round pick on quarterback JJ McCarthy and will attempt to surround McCarthy with enough talent to compete for a Super Bowl while he is still on his cheap rookie contract.

That might have been the better of the Vikings’ two options, but McCarthy enters the league very raw and, even on a cheap contract, his chances of leading this team deeper in the playoffs than Cousins did depends on him developing into the kind of quarterback worth the 10th overall pick, which is far from a guarantee. In year one, McCarthy will compete with veteran journeyman Sam Darnold for the starting job, a competition McCarthy could easily lose. 

Darnold is a former high draft pick in his own right, going 3rd overall in the 2018 NFL Draft. He struggled early in his career as a starter with the Jets and Panthers, completing just 59.8% of his passes for an average of 6.54 YPA, 54 touchdowns, and 52 interceptions in 49 starts in his first four seasons in the league, but he had terrible coaching and a terrible supporting cast early in his career and he’s shown signs of improvement in a limited sample size in better situations over the past two seasons, completing 59.1% of his passes for an average of 7.74 YPA, 9 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions in 7 starts.

Still only in his age 27 season, Darnold is a worthwhile reclamation project on a 1-year, 10 million dollar contract and he definitely has a chance to hold off McCarthy for the starting job, at least to begin the season. Either way, I wouldn’t expect much out of the quarterback position in Minnesota this season, but it’s understandable why the Vikings hit the reset button at the position this off-season, rather than doubling down on an expensive, aging Kirk Cousins. If McCarthy develops as expected long-term, the Vikings will be able to spend money to load up on talent around him and try to make the deep playoff run that they failed to make in Cousins’ tenure with the team.

Grade: C+

Receiving Corps

The Vikings didn’t make many big additions this off-season around their new quarterback, but the good news is the Vikings were actually a lot better than their 7-10 record suggested last season, finishing with a positive first down rate differential (+1.06%) and a positive yards per play differential (+0.35). That’s despite the fact that they got shaky quarterback play in Kirk Cousins’ absence, with their other quarterbacks completing 65.0% of their passes for an average of 7.40 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions over 9 starts, and that’s despite the fact that their top offensive weapon Justin Jefferson missed 7 games with injuries of his own.

Jefferson is one of the best players in the league at any position and having him likely playing more games than he did a year ago should be a big boost for this offense. A first round pick in 2020, Jefferson had slash lines of 88/1400/7, 108/1616/10, and 128/1809/8 in his first three seasons in the league respectively and in 2023 he had a 68/1075/5 slash line, despite playing just 10 games and having shaky quarterback play for much of those 10 games. 

In total, Jefferson has averaged 2.67 yards per route run in four seasons in the league and, still only in his age 25 season, he has plenty more of his prime to go. With the money the Vikings saved from not re-signing Cousins, the Vikings were able to extend Jefferson this off-season on a much deserved 4-year, 140 million dollar deal that makes him the highest paid non-quarterback in the league, ahead of what would have been the final year of his rookie deal in 2024.

With Jefferson missing a big chunk of the season last season, first round rookie Jordan Addison took on a bigger role than expected and he did well with it, considering it was only his first year in the league. He finished with a 70/911/10 slash line on 108 targets with 1.50 yards per route run and was even better in the seven games Jefferson missed, producing a slash line that extrapolates to 85/1061/10 on 129 targets over a full 17 game season. He’ll play more of a supporting role in 2024, but could easily take a step forward in efficiency in his second season in the league. With Jefferson opposite him, the Vikings have a 1-2 punch at wide receiver that has the upside to be as good as any in the league.

Tight end TJ Hockenson also had a big role last season with Jefferson missing time, averaging 1.89 yards per route run (5th) and totaling a 95/960/5 slash line on 127 targets. Unfortunately, he tore his ACL in week 16 and is now questionable for the start of the 2024 season, only about 8 months removed from the injury when the season kicks off. Even if he does make it back for week 1, it’s far from a guarantee that he’ll play at his top form in his first season back from injury. Hockenson is a former first round pick who is only in his age 27 season and had a 86/914/6 slash line with 1.60 yards per route run in 2022, so he’s more than capable of repeating last season’s performance if he’s healthy, but that’s a big question mark.

If Hockenson is out to start the season, Robert Tonyan will likely be the Vikings’ primary pass catching tight end. Tonyan had a 52/586/10 slash line with a 1.58 yards per route run average in 2020, but he benefited significantly from playing with an MVP level Aaron Rodgers and he hasn’t been the same since, averaging just 1.08 yards per route run over the past three seasons combined. Now going into his age 30 season, his best days are almost definitely behind him, but he could be a decent injury fill-in for a few games if needed. The Vikings also have Josh Oliver, who was the #2 tight end last season, but he’s just a good blocker, with run blocking grades of 74.6 and 73.9 in 2022 and 2023 respectively, but just 48 catches in 52 career games with a 0.94 yards per route run average, so he’s not really a candidate for an expanded passing game role even if Hockenson misses time.

The Vikings also lost #3 receiver KJ Osburn in free agency this off-season and he played a significant role last season with Jefferson missing time, totaling a 48/540/3 slash line on 75 targets, but he only averaged 0.97 yards per route run and has just a 1.11 yards per route run average for his career, so if he’s missed, it’ll only be because the Vikings didn’t do much to replace him this off-season, leaving the #3 receiver job to Brandon Powell, a career special teamer who had only a 1.13 yards per route run average last season when forced into a significant role by Jefferson’s injury, or to Trent Sherfield, a veteran journeyman with a career 0.84 yards per route run average and their only addition at the position this off-season. 

The Vikings also have 2022 6th round pick Jalen Nailor, but he has just 12 catches in two seasons in the league, so he’s unlikely to be a big factor either. The Vikings will need both Jefferson and Addison to stay healthy because they really lack depth behind them. With Jefferson, Addison, and Hockenson, the Vikings have a great top trio of pass catchers, but this is a very top heavy group and Hockenson is coming off of a serious injury, which affects the overall grade of this group.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

One big addition the Vikings made on offense this off-season was signing running back Aaron Jones away from division rival Green Bay. Running back was a big position of need this off-season, as the Vikings ranked 24th in the NFL with a 3.95 YPC average and 29th with 1,553 total rushing yards last season, despite ranking 10th on PFF in team run blocking grade. Jones, meanwhile, averaged 5.05 YPC with 45 touchdowns on 1,177 carries in seven seasons in the league with the Packers, including a 4.62 YPC average and 2 touchdowns on 142 carries last season. Jones also contributes in the passing game, with a career 1.24 yards per route run average and a career 48/364/3 slash line average per 17 games.

However, Jones is now heading into his age 30 season, which is a common age for running backs to drop off significantly, especially undersized, injury prone backs like Jones, who is just 5-9 208 and who has missed time in 5 of his 7 seasons in the league, totaling 18 missed games, with 6 of those coming just last season. The Vikings didn’t break the bank for Jones, nor did they make a significant long-term commitment, signing him to a 1-year, 7 million dollar deal, but that does make him the 10th highest paid running back in the league in average annual salary and it’s very possible Jones proves not to be worth that salary. Still, Jones should be an upgrade over what they had a year ago, when they had one of the league’s worst running back rooms. 

Ty Chandler was the best of the bunch a year ago, with 461 yards and 3 touchdowns on 102 carries (4.52 YPC), despite being only a 5th round pick in 2022 and only having 6 carries as a rookie prior to last season. He’s probably not suited to be a starter, but you could do worse than him as a #2 back and he should be more than capable of spelling Jones for a few touches here and there. The Vikings will need their top-2 backs to stay healthy though, as their depth behind Jones and Chandler consists of return man Kene Nwangwu, who has 27 carries in 3 seasons in the league, journeyman Myles Gaskin, who has a career 3.75 YPC average on 361 carries in five seasons in the league, and 2023 7th round pick DeWayne McBride, who spent his entire rookie season on the practice squad, despite a weak running back room ahead of him. The addition of Jones improves this group, but Jones’ age and injury history are significant concerns.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

Not much changed on the offensive line for the Vikings this off-season. The Vikings did make a change at the left guard position mid-season in 2023 though. Ezra Cleveland began last season as the starter at that spot and had an impressive 73.6 PFF grade in 6 games, but the Vikings opted to trade him at the deadline for a draft pick, with Cleveland set to hit free agency the following off-season. Dalton Risner took his place and mostly struggled, finishing with a 57.1 PFF grade on 745 snaps. Risner was still brought back as a free agent this off-season though and he could be better, finishing in the 60s on PFF in each of his previous four seasons as a starter (62 starts).

The rest of this group is the same as it was all last season. Center Garrett Bradbury and right guard Ed Ingram were mediocre last season with PFF grades of 60.9 and 59.5 respectively, but neither has much real competition for their job, with the alternatives being veteran journeyman Dan Feeney, who posted PFF grades of 49.2, 51.7, and 48.2 in three seasons as a starter from 2018-2020 and has subsequently played just 384 snaps in three seasons since, and Blake Brandel, 2020 6th round pick, who has been mediocre in limited action thus far in his career, playing just 502 snaps in four seasons in the league and finishing below 60 on PFF in every season. 

Bradbury was a first round pick in 2019 and has made 71 starts in five seasons in the league, but he has never been much more than a capable starter, maxing out with a 70.2 PFF grade in 2022, and he’s already heading into his age 29 season, so it’s unlikely he has much untapped talent at this point. Ingram, meanwhile, was a 2nd round pick in 2022 and also struggled with a 57.1 PFF grade as a rookie. He’s still young enough that there’s a good chance he takes a step forward in year three in 2024, but I wouldn’t expect a lot out of him either.

The tackle position is in much better shape, as left tackle Christian Darrisaw and right tackle Brian O’Neill are among the best tackle duos in the league. Darrisaw was a first round pick in 2021 and has more than lived up to his billing, receiving grades of 71.9, 90.3, and 82.4 from PFF in his first three seasons in the league respectively, making him already one of the best left tackles in the league, only going into his age 25 season. 

O’Neill isn’t quite as good, but he’s been incredibly consistent throughout his career as the 2018 2nd round pick has received a grade of 70 or higher from PFF in five straight seasons, dating back to his second season in the league. Still only in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2024. The Vikings also have veteran swing tackle David Quessenberry,  who has been decent in limited action as a starter over the past four seasons, with PFF grades of 61.7, 80.6, 59.3, and 64.8 in a total of 30 starts, though he’s now heading into his age 34 season. The Vikings tackles significantly elevate an otherwise mediocre offensive line.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

The Vikings made some big additions on defense, but the biggest one was more of a lateral move, as they allowed edge defender Danielle Hunter to sign a 2-year, 49 million dollar deal with the Texans and replaced him with a former Texan, Jonathan Greenard, who they signed to a 4-year, 76 million dollar deal. Hunter received a PFF grade of 78.0 on 1,004 snaps last season, with 16.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 13.0% pressure rate as a pass rusher, which would normally be a lot to replace, but Greenard had a 76.7 PFF grade on 697 snaps, with 12.5 sacks, 12 hits, and a 12.0% pressure rate as a pass rusher, so he won’t be much of a downgrade. He probably won’t play as many snaps as Hunter did, but he could easily match Hunter’s level of play.

Hunter does have more of a proven track record, as Greenard had played just 963 snaps in his first three seasons in the league prior to last season, in large part due to injury, and only had a 8.9% pressure rate over those three seasons, but Greenard is also significantly younger, going into his age 27 season, while Hunter goes into his age 30 season, so Greenard could easily be the better player over the next few seasons. Greenard might not be as good in 2024 as he was in 2023 and injuries are a concern, as he’s missed 18 games in four seasons in the league, but he has a good chance to remain at least an above average edge defender as long as he can stay on the field.

The Hunter/Greenard swap wasn’t the only move the Vikings made at the edge defender position, as they completely overhauled this group this off-season. DJ Wonnum, who was second among Vikings edge defenders with 826 snaps played, wasn’t brought back, which isn’t a huge loss as he only had a 62.3 overall PFF grade and a 8.2% pressure rate. The Vikings will be replacing him with another free agent signing, ex-Dolphin Andrew Van Ginkel, as well as rookie Dallas Turner, who the Vikings moved back up into the first round to select. Van Ginkel was only signed to a 2-year, 20 million dollar deal, but he could prove to be a steal if he plays anything like he did last season when he received a 91.1 PFF grade on 727 snaps, excelling as a pass rusher, run defender, and in coverage. In total, he had 6 sacks, 15 hits, and a 16.5% pressure rate. 

Van Ginkel is a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at last season on the snap count he played at last season, but he did have 10 sacks, 27 hits, and a 12.2% pressure rate in the previous three seasons combined, while excelling against the run and playing an average of 538 snaps per season, so last season’s breakout year didn’t come out of nowhere. Van Ginkel is only a former 5th round pick, selected in the 2019 NFL Draft, but he’s also still only in his age 29 season and could easily continue playing at least at an above average level in 2024. Van Ginkel, Greenard, and the rookie Turner should all play significant roles and could easily be one of the better edge defender trios in the league if they all stay healthy and play up to their potential.

The Vikings also still have Pat Jones, who played 634 snaps last season, but he struggled mightily with a 37.5 overall PFF grade and a 8.2% pressure rate, so he’ll rightfully be playing a smaller role this season. Jones was a 3rd round pick in 2021 and played better on a smaller snap count in 2022, with a 62.5 PFF grade on 308 snaps, so he could be a useful depth player and he might still have some further untapped upside. Jones will compete for a deep reserve role with veteran free agent addition Jihad Ward, who has played an average of 488 snaps per season over the past 5 seasons, but who has also only finished above 60 on PFF once in those 5 seasons. Now in his age 30 season, Ward was only given 1 million guaranteed this off-season and shouldn’t be guaranteed a roster spot. This remade group is much deeper than a year ago, even with former top edge defender Danielle Hunter going elsewhere this off-season.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

The Vikings didn’t make any big additions at the interior defender position this off-season, even though it was a position of weakness a year ago. Harrison Phillips (838 snaps) and Jonathan Bullard (643 snaps) led the way as the starters and both struggled, with PFF grades of 59.7 and 46.3 respectively. Phillips has never been much of a pass rusher, with a career 5.9% pressure rate in six seasons in the league, but that fell even further to a 4.8% pressure rate in 2023 and his run defense dropped off as well, down from a 79.8 PFF grade in 2021 and a 73.6 PFF grade in 2022 to a 65.6 PFF grade in 2023. 

Phillips is only in his age 28 season, so there’s some bounce back potential here, at least in terms of run defense, but he’s a pretty underwhelming player to have as your top interior defender. Bullard, meanwhile, had never played more than 437 snaps in a season his first seven seasons in the league prior to last season and he had four straight seasons below 60 on PFF going into last season, so it’s not a surprise that he struggled mightily in an expanded role. Now in his age 31 season, I would expect his struggles to continue, even if he moves into a smaller role.

The Vikings did add some new depth options this off-season, but they’re not necessarily upgrades. Jonah Williams comes over from the Rams, where he saw his role grow in four seasons after going undrafted in 2020, not playing a snap as a rookie, playing 97 snaps in year two, 342 snaps in year three, and 597 snaps last season, but he mostly struggled, with PFF grades of 53.6 and 55.6 over the past two seasons respectively in the only two seasons of significant action in his career. Already in his age 29 season, I wouldn’t expect more out of him in 2024.

Jerry Tillery was also added, coming over from the Raiders. He had a 67.7 PFF grade on 504 snaps in 2023, with his best play coming as an interior pass rusher, where he had a 10.2% pressure rate. It’s possible he could continue playing at that level, but he had never had a PFF grade higher than 50 in his first four seasons in the league prior to last season. He is a former first round pick, so it’s possible he’s finally turned a corner as a player, but he could also regress. Tillery and Williams might be better depth options by default than the Vikings’ depth options a year ago and Harrison Phillips has some bounce back potential, but this is still a very underwhelming position group.

Grade: C

Linebackers

The Vikings also made a big addition at the linebacker position, signing Blake Cashman to a 3-year, 22.5 million dollar deal, but that’s a lateral move at best, with the Vikings losing their top linebacker from a year ago, Jordan Hicks, after he had a 74.6 PFF grade on 813 snaps in 13 games in 2023. Cashman was even better than that, with a 83.7 PFF grade, but that only came on 655 snaps in 14 games and he’s a complete one-year wonder, as the 2019 5th round pick had only played 609 snaps in 4 seasons in the league prior to his surprising breakout 2023 season and had never come close to showing the kind of potential he showed in 2023. Injuries were part of the reason for his lack of playing time early in his career, but it’s highly unlikely he’ll be as good two years in a row and durability concerns still remain. He’ll likely be a downgrade from Hicks, though he does have a good chance to at least be a solid starter.

Cashman will start next to Ivan Pace, who also had a strong 2023 season out of nowhere. Despite going completely undrafted in 2023, Pace had a 77.1 PFF grade on 704 snaps as a rookie. The fact that he went undrafted just a year ago is not irrelevant at this point in his career and I wouldn’t be surprised if he was unable to repeat his surprise rookie season, but he also has a good chance to remain at least a solid starter. Pace and Cashman both had strong seasons in 2023, finishing 17th and 5th among off ball linebackers on PFF, but I wouldn’t expect either one to be as good in 2024.

Behind Cashman and Pace, the Vikings have questionable depth. Brian Asamoah was a 3rd round pick in 2022, but hasn’t gotten on the field much in two years in the league, playing 157 defensive snaps total. He might still have some untapped potential, but he could also struggle if forced into a significant role by injuries ahead of him on the depth chart. The Vikings also added veteran Kamu Grugier-Hill, but he’s finished below 60 on PFF in four straight seasons on an average of 452 snaps per season and now heads into his age 30 season, so he’s a pretty mediocre option, even as a reserve. This group has a high upside if Cashman and Pace can manage to come close to last season’s level of play, but that’s far from a guarantee and the downside is pretty significant as well.

Grade: B

Secondary

The strength of the Vikings’ secondary is the safety position, as they used 3 safeties on the field at the same time by far more than any team in the league, to try to mask their lack of depth at cornerback and at linebacker. Camryn Bynum (1,120 snaps), Harrison Smith (1,111 snaps), and Josh Metellus (1,063 snaps) all played almost all of the Vikings’ 1,129 defensive snaps last season, with Metellus being the one who moved around the most, lining up as a slot cornerback or linebacker more often than he lined up in a traditional safety spot. All three played pretty well, with PFF grades of 73.2, 68.9, and 69.2 respectively, but there’s at least some reason to be concerned that they won’t all play at the same level in 2024.

The biggest reason is that Smith, by far the most accomplished of the bunch, now heads into his age 35 season. In his prime, Smith was one of the best safeties in the league, surpassing a 70 grade on PFF in 8 straight seasons from 2014-2021, with four seasons over 80 and a career best 92.3 in 2017, but he’s fallen below 70 in back-to-back years and could continue declining in 2024, given his age. I wouldn’t expect him to totally fall off, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him be worse than a year ago. 

Metellus and Bynum, on the other hand, are younger, but with that youth comes inexperience. Bynum was a 4th round pick in 2021 and showed a lot of potential in limited action as a rookie, with a 78.3 PFF grade on 211 snaps, but he struggled in his first full season as a starter in 2022, with a 58.2 PFF grade and, while he was obviously much better than that in his second full season as a starter, he’s still a one-year wonder in terms of being an above average starter like he was a year ago. 

It’s very possible Bynum has permanently turned a corner and could continue playing at an above average level or even better than a year ago, but he could also regress a little bit. Metellus, meanwhile, was in his first season as a starter last season, after the 2020 6th round pick only played 329 snaps in his first three seasons in the league. He flashed a lot of potential with a 85.1 PFF grade on 259 snaps in 2022, but that’s a small sample size. He’ll probably remain at least a solid starter in 2024, but the fact that last season was his only season as a starter is a bit of a concern. 

It’s also unlikely all three safeties play all 17 games like they did a year ago, as that’s very tough to do two years in a row, but the Vikings do have good depth at the position. Theo Jackson was only a 6th round pick in 2022 and has played just 143 defensive snaps in his career, but was decent with a 67.6 PFF grade on 125 snaps in 2023. Meanwhile, Lewis Cine is a 2022 1st round pick who has been a major bust to this point in his career, playing just 10 total defensive snaps in two seasons in the league as a result of injury and poor performance, but he’s still young and talented and could at least be a useful reserve in 2024.

At cornerback, the Vikings’ two starters Byron Murphy and Akayleb Evans both struggled with PFF grades of 58.0 and 55.0 respectively in 2023. Murphy was signed to a 2-year, 17.5 million dollar deal in free agency last off-season and is likely locked into a starting role by virtue of his salary, but the Vikings will have a competition at the other spot and there’s a good chance Evans doesn’t keep his job. Mekhi Blackmon was a third round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft and played well in limited action while gradually seeing his playing time increase, finishing with a 71.8 PFF grade on 434 snaps, with 329 of those snaps coming in week 8 or later. He’s still a projection to a starting role, but has the talent to develop into an above average starter long-term and could easily be at least an adequate starter if needed in 2024.

The Vikings also signed Shaq Griffin in free agency, adding the journeyman on a 1-year, 4.55 million dollar deal. Griffin’s career got off to a good start, as the 2017 3rd round pick of the Seahawks made 67 starts in his first five seasons in the league, receiving PFF grades of 77.0, 64.1, and 72.0 in 2019, 2020, and 2021 respectively and earning a 3-year, 40 million dollar deal from the Jaguars as a free agent after the 2020 season. However, injuries limited him to 336 snaps in 5 games in 2022 and he was subsequently made a cap casualty prior to the final year of his contract in Jacksonville in 2023, rather than being paid 13.5 million. 

Griffin caught on with the Texans in free agency on a 1-year deal last off-season and was decent with a 66.3 PFF grade on 382 snaps in 10 games in Houston, but he lost his role in a deep cornerback group and was ultimately waived mid-season, before landing in Carolina and seeing just 77 snaps the rest of the season. Griffin is still only in his age 29 season, so he has some bounce back potential, despite the last two seasons not going according to plan. He and Blackmon would both likely be upgrades on Evans, who may also have some untapped potential in his own right, as a 2022 4th round pick who has struggled thus far in his career.

Murphy could also be better than a year ago, although it’s unlikely he’ll live up to the contract the Vikings gave him last off-season. Murphy was a 2nd round pick in 2019 and is only in his age 26 season, but he’s never received a grade higher than 66.7 grade from PFF for a season and that came in an injury shortened 2022 campaign in which he played just 595 snaps in 9 games. In three of his five seasons in the league, he’s finished below 60 on PFF. 

Even if Murphy bounces back in 2024, his ceiling is probably only an adequate starter and he could easily struggle again. The Vikings also have 2022 2nd round pick Andrew Booth, but he’s played just 256 nondescript snaps in two seasons in the league and is unlikely to carve out a role, even in an underwhelming position group overall. The Vikings will once again be relying on their safety depth to mask their issues at the cornerback position, even if they should be better at cornerback by default compared to last season.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Vikings were better than their 7-10 record in 2023, finishing with positive yards per play and first down rate differentials, despite the fact that starting quarterback Kirk Cousins and top wide receiver Justin Jefferson both missed significant time with injury. Cousins isn’t returning in 2024, but Jefferson should be healthier and the Vikings quarterbacks should be better than they were in Cousins’ absence last season. A lot of whether or not this team can contend for a playoff spot is dependent on how their quarterbacks perform, which is a question mark, but they have a solid supporting cast on both sides of the ball.

Update: The Vikings will start Sam Darnold all season with JJ McCarthy out for the year due to injury, which hurts their upside significantly, especially since they have one of the toughest schedules in the league.

Prediction: 5-12, 4th in NFC North

Green Bay Packers 2024 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2024 NFL Season Previews, Packers

Quarterback

Three years ago, the Packers made a surprising decision in the first round of the draft, selecting quarterback Jordan Love to be the long-term replacement for quarterback Aaron Rodgers. It made some sense, with Rodgers set to enter his age 37 season and coming off of a season in which he had the 3rd worst QB rating of his tenure as a starter in 2019, but Rodgers responded by posting a career best QB rating en route to winning MVP, while Love struggled behind the scenes.

The original plan was probably to trade Rodgers following 2020 and replace him with the younger, cheaper Love, but with Rodgers playing well and Love not progressing like they had hoped, suddenly the tables were turned and the Packers spent most of the off-season convincing Rodgers to stay, after he demanded a trade and threatened retirement, feeling disrespected by the selection of Love. 

Rodgers eventually stayed after receiving a pay raise and followed up his 2020 MVP season with another MVP season in 2021, while Love struggled in a lone spot starter in place of Rodgers. However, things started to shift in 2022. Rodgers started showing his age, posting a career worst QB rating, while Love started to improve significantly behind the scenes, showing his progress in mop up duty in a meaningless week 18 game. 

Last off-season, Rodgers and the Packers finally agreed to a mutual split, with the 4-time NFL MVP being sent to the Jets for a draft pick, leaving the job to Love as he entered his 4th season in the league. The Packers were in an awkward contract situation with Love, whose first round contract required the Packers to either pick up an expensive guaranteed 5th year option for 2024, or let him be a free agent following the 2023 season, but the two sides came on an agreement where the Packers declined his 5th year option, but gave him a one-year extension that was cheaper than the 5th year option would have been.

To start the 2023 season, Love looked like he wouldn’t be the long-term solution for the Packers, completing just 57.7% of his passes for an average of 6.38 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions with a 64.5 PFF grade in the first 7 games of the season, while going just 2-5. However, something seemed to click for him mid-season, as he was one of the best quarterbacks in the league the rest of the way, leading the Packers to a 7-3 record in the final 10 games of the regular season and not just an unlikely playoff berth, but also an unlikely first round upset of the Cowboys, before a close loss to the 49ers in the second round. In total, Love completed 68.5% of his passes for an average of 7.83 YPA, 26 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions with a 90.5 PFF grade in his final 12 starts of the season, including playoffs, the 2nd best PFF grade in the NFL over that stretch.

It was a small sample size and it’s far from a guarantee that Love will continue playing at that level, but he’s unlikely to regress to his first half of the 2023 season form and, even if he isn’t quite as good in 2024 as he was in the second half of 2023, he has clearly cemented himself as the Packers long-term quarterback of the future and at least an above average starting quarterback. As of this writing, he has yet to be signed long-term ahead of the final year of his contract, but an extension is reportedly in the works and he figures to be one of the highest paid quarterbacks in the league. 

Love will likely be backed up for the second straight year by Sean Clifford, a 5th round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. With Love not missing any time last season, Clifford only attempted one pass his whole rookie season and it’s unclear if he’ll develop into a capable backup long-term, but he’s probably the best option the Packers have, with the alternative being Michael Pratt, a 7th round pick in this year’s draft. Whoever wins the backup job, they would almost definitely be a massive downgrade from Love in case of injury. The Packers will need Love to stay healthy if they want to continue being a playoff caliber team.

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

Jordan Love did significantly improve his play down the stretch last season, but he wasn’t the only reason for this offense’s significant second half improvement, as the Packers had a very talented, but very young receiving corps that significantly improved as the season went on. Jayden Reed, a second round rookie, led the group in receiving with a 64/793/8 slash line and a 2.05 yards per route run average, while posting a 75.1 grade from PFF. 

Fellow rookie Dontayvion Wicks was also very efficient, albeit in a smaller role, playing just 458 snaps and only finishing with a 39/581/4 slash line, but on an average of 2.04 yards per route run with a 78.4 PFF grade, despite only being a 5th round pick. Romeo Doubs, a 2022 4th round pick, led the group in snaps played (845) and targets (96), but was not nearly as effective as Reed and Wicks, posting a 59/674/8 slash line with just a 1.32 yards per route run average, and a 68.9 PFF grade. Doubs was also underwhelming with a 42/425/3 slash line, a 1.36 yards per route run average, and a 62.6 PFF grade as a rookie in 2022 and could easily end up in a smaller role in year three, given that other young receivers have outplayed him. 

Coming into last season, 2022 2nd round pick Christian Watson was expected to be the best receiver on this team, after a rookie season in which he shined in a limited role, only playing 507 snaps, but averaging 2.26 yards per route run and finishing with a 41/611/7 slash line, despite the limited playing time. However, Watson missed 8 games with injury in 2023 and was limited in several others, leading to him averaging just 1.56 yards per route run and posting just a 28/422/5 slash line. Watson still has a lot of upside though and could easily take a big step forward in 2024 if he’s healthy. Reed, Wicks, and Doubs also have the upside to be better in 2024 than they were in 2023.

Bo Melton and Malik Heath also saw small roles last season and both are also young. Melton only played 139 snaps in five games as an injury fill-in, but he excelled in limited action, with a 16/218/1 slash line, a team best 88.1 PFF grade, and a team best 2.83 yards per route run average. It’s a very small sample size for a 2022 7th round pick who had never played an offensive snap in the NFL prior to that, but he’s a good insurance option to have. 

Heath, meanwhile, was not nearly as good, as the 2023 undrafted free agent played 260 snaps and averaged just 1.07 yards per route run. Heath is far from a guarantee to even make the final active roster in 2024 given all of the other wide receivers the Packers have and the same is the case for Samari Toure, a 2022 7th round pick who has played just 251 career snaps with a 0.98 yards per route run average, and Grant DuBose, a 2023 7th round pick who didn’t play an offensive snap as a rookie and spent most of the season on the practice squad.

The Packers have more youth at the tight end position, with 2023 2nd round pick Luke Musgrave (468 snaps) and 2023 3rd round pick Tucker Kraft (621 snaps) leading the position in snaps as rookies last season. Musgrave missed 6 games with injury last season and was their primary pass catching tight end when healthy. His 34/352/1 slash line and 1.28 yards per route run average were mediocre, but he has the talent to take a step forward in year two. Kraft, meanwhile, played all 17 games and had a 31/355/2 slash line with a 1.20 yards per route run average. He also has the upside to take a step forward in year two, but will probably be more of a blocker than a receiving option as long as Musgrave is healthy. Overall, this is a talented young receiving corps with the upside to keep getting better in 2024. They don’t have a true #1 receiver, but this is a very deep group.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

The Packers made a big addition at the running back position this off-season, signing ex-Raider Josh Jacobs to a 4-year, 48 million dollar deal, making him the 5th highest paid running back in the league in average annual salary. In the process, the Packers moved on from Aaron Jones, who had been a talented running back for them for many years. Last season, Jones missed six games with injury, but remained a talented back when healthy, rushing for 656 yards and 2 touchdowns on 142 carries (4.62 YPC) in 11 games, while averaging 1.40 yards per route run and posting a 30/233/1 slash line as a receiver. 

Jacobs is about the same price as Jones would have been, with Jones originally set to make 12 million this season, but he’s significantly younger (age 26 season vs. age 30 season), which is a big deal at the running back position, and Jacobs should be healthier than Jones was a year ago, having only missed 10 games in five seasons in the league. Jacobs has been inconsistent throughout his career and has just a 4.25 YPC average in five seasons in the league, but that’s in part due to having a mostly mediocre offense around him with the Raiders (3.01 career yards per carry after contact), he still has an impressive 51.6% career carry success rate, and he he has routinely carried the load at the running back position, averaging 304 carries per 17 games in his career, while averaging 1.15 yards per route run and a 46/337/0 slash line per 17 games. His expensive contract almost ensures he’ll have a similar role with his new team.

With Jones missing significant time last season and being limited in some games even while healthy, AJ Dillon led this team in carries with 178, but he struggled with a 3.44 YPC average (2.69 yards per carry after contact) and it was a surprise the Packers brought him back on a 1-year, 2.75 million dollar deal, despite the signing of Jacobs to be the feature back. Dillon has been better in the past, with a 4.34 YPC average on 418 carries (3.10 yards per carry after contact) in his first three seasons in the league, after going in the 2nd round in 2020, and he’s a useful passing down back, with a career 1.09 yards per route run average, but he’ll be a true backup to Jacobs and might not even be that, with the Packers using their 3rd round pick on MarShawn Lloyd as competition for the #2 back role. With Lloyd added, Jacobs likely to be healthier than Jones was, and Dillon having some bounce back potential after a career worst 2023, this should be a deeper backfield than a year ago, albeit at an expensive price.

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

The Packers made some changes on the offensive line this off-season. The biggest name that is gone is left tackle David Bakhtiari, who was released this off-season ahead of 21.5 million non-guaranteed owed in his age 33 season in 2024, but he had been consistently injured in recent years and only played one game in 2023, so his absence won’t be felt too much. The Packers also lost free agent departure Yosh Njiman, a useful reserve who had played in Bakhtiari’s absence in recent years, but he only played 230 nondescript snaps last season (61.7 PFF grade), so he won’t be missed too much either.

Guard Jon Runyan leaving in free agency is the most noteworthy loss on the offensive line, as he started 17 games last season, but he struggled with a 54.7 PFF grade, so it won’t be too hard to replace him either. Options to replace him include Royce Newman and Sean Rhyan. Newman has made 24 starts in three seasons in the league since going in the 4th round in 2021, but he has earned grades of 55.7, 57.5, and 44.3 in those three seasons and barely played in 2023 (183 snaps), so he would be an underwhelming option, while Rhyan, a 2022 3rd round pick, missed his whole rookie year with injury and then underwhelmed with a 51.7 PFF grade on 183 snaps in 2023. Rhyan is still only in his age 24 season and could take a step forward, but Newman is already in his age 27 season and is unlikely to develop into more than a backup caliber player.

More likely, the Packers will either move first round pick tackle Jordan Morgan inside to guard, or keep him at tackle and move tackle Zach Tom inside. Tom was only a 4th round pick in 2022, but flashed talent with a 68.3 PFF grade on 489 snaps as a rookie before breaking out as the Packers’ best offensive lineman in 2023, making 17 starts at tackle with a 77.8 PFF grade. It’s a little risky to change his position after such a strong season at tackle, but Tom has the versatility to play guard or even center and it sounds like the Packers think he has even greater upside long-term on the inside.

Assuming one of Tom or Morgan moves inside, Rasheed Walker figures to continue starting at tackle opposite whichever of Tom or Morgan stays outside. Walker was only a 7th round pick in 2022 and didn’t play an offensive snap as a rookie, but he was solid with a 66.4 PFF grade in 15 starts at tackle in 2023 in place of the injured Bakhtiari and, while he doesn’t have a big upside, he could remain at least a capable starting tackle in 2024. If Tom and Morgan start at tackle, Walker would move to the swing tackle role, but most likely he’ll remain in the starting lineup. The Packers also signed veteran Andre Dillard, a former first round pick, in free agency, but he’s been middling at best in just 19 career starts in five seasons in the league, including a 51.0 PFF grade on a career high 562 snaps in 2023, so he’s very likely to be a backup and not a real option to start.

Guard Elgton Jenkins has also played some tackle in his career, but the Packers seem to prefer him at guard. A 2nd round pick in 2019, Jenkins has been a solid or better offensive lineman throughout his career, posting grades of 69.2, 67.7, 82.1, 72.3, and 65.4 on PFF in five seasons in the league. His career best season in 2021 was shortened to 496 snaps in 8 games by a torn ACL, but he’s only missed four games in his other 4 seasons combined. Still only in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2024.

At center, Josh Myers remains, but could move to guard if the Packers decide center is Zach Tom’s best spot. Myers was a 2nd round pick in 2021 and has made 40 starts in three seasons in the league, including all 34 in two seasons since an injury plagued rookie season, but he has been pretty mediocre, with grades of 58.3, 60.4, and 55.8 from PFF in three seasons in the league. Only in his age 26 season, he may have some untapped upside, but most likely he’ll remain a middling at best starter at whatever position he ends up and, given the depth on this offensive line, it’s possible he winds up getting benched if he struggles to start the season or disappoints in training camp. The Packers also used a 5th round pick on Jacob Monk, a versatile offensive line whose best pro position is likely center, but he’s unlikely to see significant playing time at any position as a rookie, barring multiple injuries. This isn’t an elite offensive line, but it’s not a bad group either and the Packers have a lot of versatile options.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

The success the Packers had down the stretch last season actually came in spite of their defense getting worse as the season went on, as their offense improved so much that they were able to cover for the other side of the ball. On offense, the Packers averaged 5.58 yards per play and had a 31.35% first down rate last season and those jump to 5.84 yards per play and a 32.85% first down rate if you more heavily weight their late season games. On defense, the opposite happened as their 5.37 yards per play allowed and 31.16% first down rate allowed jump to 5.54 and 31.51% if you more heavily weight their late season games.

The Packers made a few changes on defense this off-season, but none of those were at the interior defender position, where Kenny Clark (809 snaps), TJ Slaton (627 snaps), Devonte Wyatt (552 snaps), Karl Brooks (379 snaps), and Colby Wooden (256 snaps) were their top-5 last season and all return for 2024. They should all have similar roles this season, though it’s worth noting that all five played all 17 games last season, which is highly unlikely to happen again this season.

Overall, the group was decent, but unspectacular last season. Kenny Clark was the best of the bunch, which has been the case for years, but his 68.8 PFF grade was actually low by his standards, as he surpassed 70 on PFF in five straight seasons from 2017-2021, including two seasons over 80. Clark also had a 66.4 PFF grade in 2022, so it’s possible he’s starting to regress, but he’s still only in his age 29 season, so he could have some bounce back potential. 

Clark’s run defense is what has fallen off the most, but as a pass rusher he still had 7.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 12.5% pressure rate last season, even better than his career pass rush stats of 34 sacks, 45 hits, and a 10.5% pressure rate in 123 games. He should continue being an effective pass rusher and his run defense has a chance to bounce back. He’s also by far the most experienced of the bunch, now entering his 9th season in the league, after being a first round draft choice in 2016.

Devonte Wyatt also was a much better pass rusher than run stopper in 2023, with a 80.4 PFF grade as a pass rusher and 5.5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 14.8% pressure rate, but just a 46.4 grade against the run. Wyatt was a first round pick in 2022 and flashed some potential in a limited role as a rookie with a 69.9 overall PFF grade on 224 snaps. Now going into his third season in the league, he could take a step forward, though it’s worth noting he was an old rookie and is already in his age 26 season. Either way, he should remain at least the kind of player he was last year, effective as a pass rusher, but a liability against the run.

Wooden and Brooks were also both much better against the pass than against the run, posting run defense grades of 51.6 and 44.5 respectively on PFF, but impressing with pressure rates of 9.6% and 9.8% respectively. Both were rookies, taken in the 4th and 6th round of the 2023 NFL Draft respectively, and both could take a step forward in year two, but neither has a huge upside, so that’s far from a guarantee. Another player on a rookie contract, TJ Slaton was the best of the bunch against the run in 2023, which is to be expected from a big 6-5 330 pounder like him. 

Slaton being the best of the bunch against the run was mostly by default though. A 5th round pick in 2021, Slaton has mostly been a situational run stopper throughout his career, playing more snaps against the run (663) than against the pass (552) in his career and managing just a 4.5% pressure rate for his career. He’s been unspectacular in that situational role, struggling with a 44.2 PFF grade against the run as a rookie and then posting grades of 61.8 and 62.0 over the past two seasons, much better than his rookie year, but still underwhelming. Now in his age 27 season, it’s unlikely Slaton has much untapped upside, so he should remain an underwhelming base package player. Overall, this is a young group that could be better in 2024 than it was in 2023, but that’s far from a guarantee and they’re unlikely to all remain healthy all season like they did a year ago.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

The Packers didn’t make any changes at the edge defender position either, with Preston Smith (730 snaps), Rashan Gary (586 snaps), Kingsley Enagbare (453 snaps), and Lukas Van Ness (366 snaps) all returning as their top-4 edge defenders. There could still be differences this season though, as Gary and Van Ness could see more playing time, with Gary going now being another year removed from the torn ACL that ended his 2022 season and Van Ness now going into his second season in the league, after being a first round pick by the Packers in 2023. It’s also worth noting that, like their top interior defenders, none of their top edge defenders missed any time with injury in 2023, which is highly unlikely to happen again this season.

Despite it being his first season back from a major injury, Gary still played at a high level in 2024, posting a 80.0 PFF grade and excelling as a pass rusher, with 9 sacks, 12 hits, and a 15.6% pressure rate. Gary had a 89.3 PFF grade and a 82.9 PFF grade in 2021 and 2022 respectively while totaling 15.5 sacks, 23 hits, and a 17.8% pressure rate across the season and a half before his injury, so it’s possible Gary could be even better in his second season removed from the injury in 2024, still only in his age 27 season. The former first round pick (2019) Gary is also likely to see closer to the 42.4 snaps per game he played in the year and a half before his injury than the 34.5 snaps per game he played in his first season back in 2023. Van Ness, meanwhile, was decent with a 64.0 PFF grade in his limited rookie year action and has the upside to take a big step forward in a bigger role in year two.

If Gary and Van Ness see more playing time, it would likely come at the expense of Preston Smith, who now heads into his age 32 season and could become more of a rotational player as he ages. Smith had a solid season in 2023, receiving a 73.9 overall grade from PFF, playing the run well and adding 8 sacks, 14 hits, and a 10.7% pressure rate as a pass rusher. He’s mostly been a capable starter throughout his career, surpassing 60 on PFF in 8 of 9 seasons in the league, while playing an average of 46.5 snaps per game with just one game missed in his career, but last season was the third best PFF grade of his 9-year career, so it’s unlikely he’ll be as good again in 2024, especially given his age. Still, he should be a useful rotational player, likely in a smaller role than he’s used to.

Kingsley Enagbare should also remain a rotational player, after the 2022 5th round pick has shown decently in that role the past two seasons, with PFF grades of 61.4 and 64.5 respectively on snap counts of 465 and 453 respectively, holding up against the run and totaling 5 sacks, 11 hits, and a 10.6% pressure rate. Still very young in his age 24 season, it’s possible he could take a step forward in 2024, but even if he doesn’t, he should remain a capable rotational player. The Packers probably won’t have the same health at the edge defender position that they had a year ago and Preston Smith’s age is a concern, but Rashan Gary should play more and possibly at a higher level, now another year removed from his ACL tear, while Kingsley Enagbare and Lukas Van Ness are young players who could take a step forward.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

The Packers did make a big change at the linebacker position this off-season, parting ways with veteran every down linebacker De’Vondre Campbell as a cap casualty. Campbell was one of the better players in the league at his position in his prime, but he fell to a 65.3 PFF grade while being limited to 575 snaps in 11 games by injury last season and the Packers saved 10.75 million by cutting him ahead of his age 31 season in 2024, so it’s understandable why they moved on.

The Packers used a second round pick on Edgerrin Cooper as Campbell’s long-term replacement and, without another good option, he’s expected to start and be an every down player right away. He profiles as a long-term starter, but could easily struggle through growing pains in year one. If Cooper doesn’t lock down the job in the off-season, the Packers’ only alternative would be Isaiah McDuffie, who played 511 snaps last season, mostly as an injury replacement when Campbell was out, and struggled with a 58.4 PFF grade. A 6th round pick in 2021, McDuffie didn’t play well in smaller snap counts in his first two seasons in the league either (511 total snaps) and would almost definitely struggle in a season-long starting role.

At the other linebacker spot, the Packers have another young linebacker, 2022 1st round pick Quay Walker. Walker has been disappointing thus far in his career. He struggled with a 52.0 PFF grade on 846 snaps as a rookie and, while he was better in year two, he was still mediocre, with a 60.0 PFF grade on 848 snaps. He still has a lot of upside and easily could have his best season yet in year three in 2024, but that’s far from a guarantee. With an unsettled situation at the other linebacker spot, the Packers need a lot out of Walker. This position group at least has upside with Walker and Cooper both being young, but it easily could be a position of weakness.

Grade: C+

Secondary

The Packers also overhauled the safety position this off-season. Rudy Ford (626 snaps), Darnell Savage (558 snaps), and Jonathan Owens (774 snaps) were all decent as their top-3 safeties last season, with PFF grades of 69.9, 66.3, and 61.9 respectively, but all three were let go this off-season. In their place, the Packers gave a big contract to ex-Giant Xavier McKinney, making him the 4th highest paid safety in the league in average annual salary on a 4-year, 67 million dollar deal, and then used draft picks in the 2nd, 4th, and 5th round on Javon Cooper, Evan Williams, and Kitan Oladipo, with Cooper being the heavy favorite to start opposite McKinney, if only by default.

With inexperience at the other starting safety spot, the Packers will need McKinney to live up to his big contract. If he plays anything like he did last season, when he was PFF’s 4th ranked safety with a 87.5 grade, then he will be well worth what the Packers paid for him. McKinney had never been that good in a season before last year, even receiving a 57.8 grade from PFF in 2022, but he also received grades of 70.0 and 75.4 in 2020 and 2021 and he’s still only in his age 25 season, so, even if he isn’t quite as good as last season, he still has a good chance to play at a high level. Durability is a concern, as the 2020 2nd round pick has missed 18 games in four seasons in the league, but he played in all 17 games last season and in 2021, with all of his missed games coming in 2020 and 2022, so he’s more than capable of making it through a season. He was a good value, even on an expensive contract.

At cornerback, the Packers traded away veteran Rasul Douglas at the trade deadline last year, when the Packers were sellers after their slow start. Douglas’ absence was a big part of the reason why the Packers defense was worse in the second half of last season, succeeding as a team only because their offense was more than able to make up for their defensive decline. The Packers were also without top cornerback Jaire Alexander for much of the second half of last season due to injury, which also contributed to their defensive decline.

The Packers didn’t replace Douglas this off-season, but they should hopefully get more out of Alexander, who was limited to 445 snaps in 7 games, with just two of those games coming after week 9. Alexander had a 70.2 PFF grade when on the field, which was actually the worst single season grade of his 6-year career, as Alexander is one of the best cornerbacks in the league at his best. Alexander received a 90.5 grade in 2020 and a 80.3 grade as recently as 2022 and he’s only going into his age 27 season, but the 2018 1st round pick has also missed 28 games with injury in his career, so there’s a good chance he’ll miss more time and/or be limited with injuries again in 2024. Still, the Packers should get more out of him in 2024 than they did in 2023, which will be a boost for a cornerback group that was a big weakness without him and Douglas down the stretch last season.

In the absence of Alexander and Douglas, the Packers were led in cornerbacks snaps last season by Keisean Nixon (808 snaps), Carrington Valentine (694 snaps), and Corey Ballentine (488 snaps), who all struggled, with PFF grades of 59.0, 57.5, and 60.3 respectively. None have much of a history of success either, as Valentine was just a 7th round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, while Nixon and Ballentine were career special teamers before being forced into significant action in 2023, playing just 563 defensive snaps and 422 defensive snaps respectively in the first four seasons of their career prior to last season. With no significant additions made to this group this off-season, at least one of those three will have to play a significant role at cornerback this season.

It’s possible two of those three will have to play significant roles again in 2024, but the Packers are at least hoping to get something out of Eric Stokes. Stokes was their first round pick in 2021 and his career got off to a decent start, with a 66.3 PFF grade on 934 rookie year snaps, but injuries have limited him to a 53.7 PFF grade in 477 snaps and a 51.5 PFF grade in 110 snaps over the past two seasons respectively. Stokes is only in his age 25 season and still has upside, but he’s far from a guarantee to stay healthy and, even if he does, he’ll have to earn a role, despite the issues the Packers have at the cornerback position. The Packers have a pair of high level defensive backs in cornerback Jaire Alexander and Xavier McKinney, but both have significant injury histories and the rest of this group is a big concern.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Packers were the youngest team in the league in 2023 in terms of average age and by a pretty significant margin, but they got significantly better as the season went on and surprisingly made the post-season and won a game, in large part due to the breakout of young quarterback Jordan Love, but also because of other young players improving. Going into 2024, the Packers remain the youngest team in the NFL. They probably won’t be as good as they were down the stretch last season, but they should be better overall than they were a year ago, if you include their slow start to last season.

Update: A tough schedule could prevent the Packers from taking a step forward in win total, but they still look like a playoff team.

Prediction: 9-8, 3rd in NFC North

Chicago Bears 2024 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2024 NFL Season Previews, Bears

Quarterback

The Bears have had a very interesting team building process over the past several seasons. A common strategy of teams is to draft a quarterback and then surround that quarterback with a lot of veteran talent while he is young and cheap. That strategy usually comes at the expense of future cap space and eventually the quarterback will need to get paid, but the hope is that by the time the team needs to cut salary around the quarterback that the quarterback will be good enough to keep the team competitive even with less around him and, if the quarterback isn’t good enough for that, then the team can rebuild from scratch and start the process over with a new quarterback once their financial situation is improved, likely a quarterback they select with a high draft pick after a down year with a reduced supporting cast.

In 2017, the Bears used the 2nd overall pick on quarterback Mitch Trubisky and got to work on loading up the rest of the roster, especially on defense, led by Khalil Mack, giving up pair of first round picks to acquire him during the 2018 off-season and then promptly making him the highest paid defensive player in the league. The strategy resulted in 12-4 finish in 2018, but the Bears lost in the first round of the playoffs and never found that same success again, finishing 8-8 in each of the next two seasons, as they slowly started to lose key players from their 2018 team and Trubisky did not progress as a quarterback to compensate.

The Bears let Trubisky go as a free agent following his 4th season in the league in 2020, declining his expensive 5th year option, and it seemed like a good time to start to rebuild, with an eye on improving their long-term cap situation and then taking another shot on a young quarterback. Instead, the Bears immediately took another shot on a young quarterback, trading away a future first round pick to move up from 20 to 11 in the 2021 NFL Draft and select Justin Fields. Fields showed promise as a rookie, but the Bears’ supporting cast was still aging and expensive and need in of a rebuild, leading to a 6-11 season. 

The Bears then started that rebuild in a big way the following off-season, shedding expensive, aging veterans and going with cheaper, younger supporting cast around Fields. Fields continued to show some promise in his second season in the league, but had one of the worst supporting casts in the league, leading to the Bears finishing with the worst record in the league at 3-14. That terrible season earned the Bears the #1 pick in the draft, which put the Bears at a crossroads. They could either use the #1 pick on another quarterback and give up on a young quarterback who hadn’t really gotten a fair shot in two years in the league, or they could trade away the pick and try to build around Fields for the future. 

The Bears opted for the second choice, trading the pick to Carolina for a pair of first round picks and a pair of second round picks, as well as wide receiver DJ Moore, giving Fields a #1 wide receiver that he desperately lacked. The Bears then used their new found cap space to sign free agents like linebackers Tremaine Edmunds and TJ Edwards and guard Nate Davis, then used the 10th overall pick that they got from Carolina to get Fields some more offensive line help in Darnell Wright, and then in a mid-season trade they made use of their excess second round picks and favorable cap situation to acquire talented edge defender Montez Sweat from the Commanders, a pending free agent who the Bears kept on a 4-year, 98 million dollar deal.

The result was a much improved Bears team, especially down the stretch once Sweat was added to the defense, as the Bears finished 7-10, including a 5-3 record in their final 8 games. DVOA was even more favorable to them, as they finished the season 11th in weighted DVOA, which more heavily weighted their second half of the season improvement (22nd in season-long DVOA). However, Fields was still a mixed bag, promising, but not necessarily the long-term solution. Fields completed 61.4% of his passes for an average of 6.92 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions, while rushing for 5.30 YPC and 4 touchdowns on 124 carries, resulting in total stats through three seasons in the league of 60.3% completion, 6.97 YPA, 40 touchdowns, and 30 interceptions, with 6.24 YPC and 14 rushing touchdowns on 356 carries.

On top of that, the Panthers struggled mightily in their first season with #1 overall pick Bryce Young, in large part due to the absence of DJ Moore, leading to the first round pick the Bears got from Carolina being #1 overall in 2024. The Bears traded down from #1 overall and kept Fields as their quarterback once, but with Fields still not improving drastically despite a better supporting cast and being another year older and another year closer to the end of his cheap rookie deal, as well a stronger quarterback class led by USC’s Caleb Williams, the Bears did not make the same decision this year, trading away Fields and selecting Williams #1 overall.

With Fields only having one cost controlled year left on his contract, the market for Fields was not strong this off-season, leading to the Bears settling for a conditional late round pick in 2025 from the Steelers in exchange for him. Given Bryce Young’s struggles in his first season in Carolina and the fact that the first round pick they acquired from the Panthers ended up being #1 overall, it’s easy to look at their decision to keep Fields another year and trade down as a success, but there’s an alternate reality where the Bears stayed put at #1 in 2023, traded away Fields for a higher return a year earlier, and used that #1 pick on CJ Stroud, who broke out as one of the best quarterbacks in the league immediately as a rookie, after falling to the Texans at #2.

Hindsight is 20/20 and obviously the Bears’ course of action was better than if they had selected Bryce Young #1, but Stroud was a legitimate candidate for the #1 pick and easily could have been the Bears’ choice had they stayed put. If Caleb Williams pans out, no one will remember the Bears could have had Stroud, but if Williams proves to be a bust or disappoints, the Bears’ decision to trade down from #1 pick in 2023 will not look like the slam dunk move it looks like now.

Of course, Williams is one of the best quarterback prospects of the decade and seems a lot more likely to be the answer for the Bears at quarterback than a disappointment. He also, unlike Fields, has more than enough talent around him to succeed, or at least to be properly evaluated from the start. In addition to the players the Bears added last year to improve this roster, the Bears used their accumulated draft picks and financial flexibility to improve their roster further this off-season. With an elite quarterback prospect under center, it’s not hard to see how the Bears could take a big step forward in 2024 and, in the weaker NFC, that could make them one of the top teams in the conference.

Williams doesn’t have a significant injury history, but if he does happen to miss time, he will be replaced by another young quarterback Tyson Bagent. Bagent went undrafted in 2023, but impressed through the off-season to earn the #2 quarterback job behind Fields as a rookie and then saw 4 starts when Fields missed time. He had some positive moments, but ultimately looked like an undrafted rookie, completing 65.7% of his passes for an average of 6.01 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. It’s possible he could be better in year two, but he is an underwhelming backup option and would almost definitely be a big drop off from Williams, so the Bears’ hopes of being a playoff team in 2024 depend heavily on Williams staying healthy.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

The biggest area the Bears improved this off-season was their receiving corps. DJ Moore was a legitimate #1 wide receiver in his first season in Chicago, finishing with a 96/1364/8 slash line, a 2.31 yards per route run average that ranked 14th in the league among wide receivers, and a 89.3 PFF grade that ranked 9th in the league among wide receivers, but the rest of this wide receiver group was very underwhelming, as Darnell Mooney finished 2nd on the team among wide receivers with a 31/414/1 slash line and a 0.89 yards per route run average, while receiving a 55.2 PFF grade that ranked 92nd out of 102 eligible wide receivers.

Mooney was allowed to walk as a free agent this off-season and the Bears used some of their cap space to acquire Keenan Allen from the Chargers and then used their own first round pick, 9th overall, on Washington’s Rome Odunze to give them a talented trio of cap catchers. Allen is going into his age 32 season and is owed 23.1 million in the final year of his contract, meaning he could just be an one-year expensive rental and could also disappoint if he declines due to his age, but he only cost the Bears a 4th round pick in terms of draft compensation, they had the financial flexibility to acquire him, and he hasn’t really shown signs of decline yet, finishing the 2023 season with a 108/1243/7 slash in only 13 games, the 5th season of over 1000 yards receiving in the past seven seasons for a player with a career 2.10 yards per route run average (2.36 in 2023). 

It’s possible Allen’s abilities suddenly fall off a cliff given his age and the position he plays. Not only is age 31 to age 32 the biggest single season drop off in terms of elite production probability, but a 32-year-old wide receiver is about half as likely to top 1000 yards receiving in a season as a 30-year-old wide receiver and about a third as likely as a 28-year-old wide receiver, a steep drop off in a 4-year span. However, assuming Allen doesn’t completely drop off, he should be a welcome addition for this team, even if he isn’t quite as good as he’s been in the past. Odunze, meanwhile, is only a rookie, but he profiles as a future #1 receiver and won’t need to be any higher than the third receiver as a rookie, barring injuries or a major decline from Allen, so he is more than qualified for his role. 

Moore should remain the #1 option, even with Allen and Odunze being added. Still only going into his age 27 season, Moore has surpassed 1100 yards receiving in 4 of the past 5 seasons, despite shaky quarterback play with the Panthers and last year with the Bears. Over that 5-year stretch, which dates back to the 2018 first round pick’s second second in the league, Moore has averaged 2.04 yards per route run and a 84/1198/6 slash line per 17 games, while missing just two games with injury over that stretch. 

Moore is also coming off of a career best year in turns of receiving yardage and PFF grade and, even if he isn’t quite as good in 2023, he’s clearly in the prime of his career and should remain one of the better wide receivers in the league. He’ll probably see his target share go down with Allen and Odunze being added, but the 136 targets he had last season were only 16th in the NFL and, even with a smaller target share, he could see a similar number of overall targets on what should be a more pass heavy offense than a year ago (27th in the NFL in pass attempts last season with 513). He also should benefit from having more talented receivers around him taking some of the coverage away from him, as well as from having a better quarterback throwing him the ball.

The Bears also bring back tight end Cole Kmet, who was the de facto #2 receiver on this team last season, finishing with a 73/719/6 slash line, 90 targets, and 1.69 yards per route run, all second on the team behind Moore. It was a career best year for Kmet, who ranked 8th among tight ends with a 73.7 PFF grade in 2023, after a 1.25 combined yards per route run average and PFF grades of 63.4 and 67.6 in 2021 and 2022, but the 2020 2nd round pick is also highly talented and only in his age 25 season, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him continue to play at that level or even a higher level, even if his overall receiving numbers go down slightly with more mouths to feed at the wide receiver position. He’s more than qualified to be the 3rd or 4th option in a suddenly loaded receiving corps.

The Bears also added veteran tight end Gerald Everett this off-season on a 2-year, 12 million dollar deal. Everett is going into his age 30 season and was an underwhelming starting option with the Seahawks and Chargers over the past three seasons, but he wasn’t a bad starter either, with a 1.29 yards per route run average and 35 starts in 46 games, and he’s more than qualified to be a solid backup and a good insurance policy in case of a Kmet injury. The Bears also brought back blocking specialist Marcedes Lewis. Lewis is going into his age 40 season and has only caught 10 passes over the past two seasons, but he’s still an above average blocker, with a PFF run blocking grade of 73.7 in 2023. He won’t have a big role behind Kmet and Everett, but could still be useful as a role player and veteran leder.

The one concern with their group is depth at wide receiver behind their top-3 options, as they lack a proven backup, but they at least have some recent draft picks with some upside, as Tyler Scott was a 4th round pick in 2023 and Velus Jones was a 3rd round pick in 2022. Both have shown nothing as professionals to this point in their young careers, with career averages of 0.65 yards per route run and 1.02 yards per route run respectively, but both are young and talented enough that I wouldn’t rule out one taking a step forward this season and being an adequate backup option. Overall, this is one of the most complete receiving corps in the league.

Grade: A

Running Backs

The Bears also signed running back D’Andre Swift this off-season and he also figures to have a significant role in the passing game. His 39/214/1 slash line and 0.77 yards per route run from 2023 look underwhelming, but he played in an Eagles offense that doesn’t target running backs much in the passing game. In the first three seasons of his career in Detroit, the 2020 2nd round pick averaged a 52/399/2 slash line per 17 games with a 1.53 yards per route run average. 

Swift also averaged 4.62 YPC as a runner in those three seasons in Detroit, but injuries limited him to just 364 carries in 40 games. In his first season in Philadelphia, Swift played all but one game and rushed for 1,049 yards and 5 touchdowns on 229 carries (4.58 YPC) in the first season of his career as a healthy lead back. Swift’s history of injuries is still a concern and he benefited significantly last season from running behind one of the best offensive lines in the league, which he won’t be bringing to Chicago with him, but he’s proven to be a solid every down back when healthy and he’s still only going into his age 25 season.

Still, it’s fair to question the need for the Bears to bring Swift in on a 3-year, 24 million dollar deal (7th highest average annual value among running backs), even if they had the financial flexibility to do it. Khalil Herbert was their lead running back last season and had a solid 4.63 YPC average on 132 carries. The 2021 6th round pick has never truly carried the load and he has struggled in the passing game with a career 0.73 yards per route run average, but he also has an impressive 4.88 YPC average on 364 carries as a runner in three seasons in the league and at the very least is a solid tandem back. Herbert’s career 3.20 yards per carry after contact significantly exceeds Swift’s 2.53. Swift will work in tandem with Herbert and handle most of the passing game work, but he comes at a steep price for that role. The Bears could have just kept Dont’a Foreman as a tandem back on a much cheaper deal (signed with Cleveland for 1-year, 1.3 million), even though his 2.75 yards per carry after contact in 2023 exceeded Swift’s 2.42.

The Bears also have 2023 4th round pick Roschon Johnson who showed promise as a rookie and who likely would have been that tandem back with Herbert had Swift not been added. Johnson averaged 4.35 YPC on 81 carries as a rookie and also handled the majority of the passing game work, with a 29/209/0 slash line and a 1.10 yards per route run average. Swift upgrades what is now a suddenly deep backfield, but I’m not sure he improves this team enough to justify his salary, especially given his injury history.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

The Bears didn’t make any big additions on the offensive line this season, but this was already a solid group, one that had been remade significantly over the past few off-seasons. Left tackle Braxton Jones was only a 5th round pick in 2022, but has proven to be a steal, making 28 starts on the blindside in two seasons in the league and giving the Bears above average play, with PFF grades of 75.4 and 68.8 respectively. Still only in his age 25 season, it’s possible the best is yet to come from him and, even if it’s not, he should remain a solid blindside protector in 2024 and beyond.

On the other side, right tackle Darnell Wright was taken 10th overall in 2023 with one of the draft picks the Bears got in their trade with Carolina. He was unspectacular as a rookie with a 62.4 PFF grade in 17 starts, but is a very talented player who could easily take a big step forward in year two. Even if he doesn’t improve drastically, I would still expect him to be at least somewhat improved from a year ago, given the amount of promise he came into the league with.

Left guard Teven Jenkins is also a young player, going in the 2nd round in 2021. Jenkins missed most of his rookie season with injury and struggled mightily in the limited action he did see (160 snaps), but he improved drastically (80.7 PFF grade) when he moved from tackle to guard in his second season in the league in 2022, in part due to the position change, in part due to being healthier and more experienced. Jenkins was still limited to 576 snaps by injury in 2022, but he saw more playing time in 2023, with a 72.6 PFF grade on 731 snaps. He’s still yet to make it through a full season without getting hurt, but he’s still only in his age 26 season and has proven his talent. He’ll probably miss more time with injury at some point this season, but he also figures to remain an above average starting guard when on the field.

Right guard Nate Davis came to the Bears as a free agent last off-season, signing a 3-year, 30 million dollar deal. The ex-Titan had a rough first season in Chicago, missing 6 games and being limited in several others due to injury and personal off-the-field concerns, leading to a disappointing 52.9 PFF grade, but he’s only in his age 28 season and could easily bounce back in 2024. In his final three seasons in Tennessee, he made 42 of a possible 50 starts and had PFF grades of 69.7, 68.8, and 70.6, so if everything is right with him again, he should be at least a solid starting guard, which will be a boost for this offensive line. 

The only addition in this offensive line this off-season was at center, where the Bears surrendered a 5th round pick to the Bills to take on the final 2 years and 8 million of Ryan Bates’ contract. Bates is an underwhelming player, but he comes relatively cheap and it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade at center, where Cody Whitehair (45.0 PFF grade) and Lucas Patrick (50.5 PFF grade) were both liabilities last season, making center their biggest position of weakness in 2023. Bates was a backup with the Bills last season, playing just 35 snaps, which is why he was available so inexpensively this off-season, but he made 19 starts in 2021 and 2022 combined (3 at center, 16 at guard) and received adequate grades of 64.3 and 61.8 respectively from PFF, so he should be a capable and versatile starting option, still only in his age 27 season.

The Bears also used a 3rd round pick on Yale’s Kiran Amegadjie and it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade as the swing tackle over Larry Borom, who had a 48.0 PFF grade in six starts (411 snaps) in 2023. Borom himself could also be better than a year ago, as the 2021 5th round pick was adequate in 17 starts in his first two seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 61.4 and 64.7 respectively, before last year’s down season. Even if Borom keeps the swing tackle job, Amegadjie could still provide value in year one because he has experience at guard as well as tackle.

On the interior, Whitehair and Patrick are gone and Matt Pryor and Coleman Shelton were added as veteran reserve options. Pryor played just 42 snaps with the 49ers in 2023, but he saw snap counts of 776, 438, and 576 in 2020, 2021, and 2022 respectively and had his ups and downs, with grades of 55.4, 76.5, and 44.9 respectively from PFF. Of his 24 career starts, 13 have come at tackle, with the other 11 at guard, so he gives the Bears some veteran versatiity at the very least. Shelton, meanwhile, made 2 starts, 13 starts, and 17 starts for the Rams over the past 3 seasons with mediocre, but not horrible results, with PFF grades of 57.7, 58.0, and 64.5 respectively. Shelton is also a versatile reserve option, with 28 starts at center and 4 starts at guard over the past three seasons. 

The Bears hope none of their reserves have to see significant action, but their depth isn’t bad and their starting five has a good chance to be a solid unit. They weren’t terrible a year ago (23rd in both team run blocking and team pass blocking grade on PFF), despite injuries (6 games missed by Davis, 5 games missed by Jenkins, 6 games missed by Jones), and they probably upgraded the center position this off-season, even if only by default, with the addition of Ryan Bates.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The Bears didn’t add nearly as much on defense this off-season as they did on offense, but their defense was the better side of the ball last season (22nd in offensive DVOA, 17th in defensive DVOA), especially after acquiring Montez Sweat from the Commanders mid-season. Sweat was only with the team for half a year, but lead the team with 6 sacks in 9 games, while also adding 8 hits and a 13.3% pressure rate. Including his time with the Commanders, Sweat finished last season with 12.5 sacks, 13 hits, a 12.4% pressure rate and a 74.8 overall grade from PFF. 

That’s nothing new for Sweat, as the 2019 1st round pick has finished above 70 on PFF in four straight seasons, while totaling 34.5 sacks, 54 hits, and a 11.9% pressure rate in 60 games over that stretch. Equally reliable as a run stopper as he is as a pass rusher, Sweat was a great addition to this defense, even at a steep price (a 2nd round pick via trade and a 4-year, 98 million dollar extension that makes him the 6th highest paid edge defender in the league). Still only in his age 28 season, Sweat is unlikely to drop off in 2024 and having him for a full season will be a significant benefit to this defense.

The rest of this position group is a concern, however. With Sweat only being added mid-season, DeMarcus Walker led this group with 714 snaps played and was pretty underwhelming, totaling 3.5 sacks, 12 hits, and a 9.9% pressure rate, while struggling against the run and finishing with a 59.1 overall grade from PFF. Without any other major additions at the position this off-season, Walker figures to have a significant role opposite Sweat again in 2024 and he figures to continue struggling. Walker had never played more than 458 snaps in a season prior to last season and has just 23 sacks, 36 hits, and a 10.3% pressure rate in 83 games in seven seasons in the league. Now in his age 30 season, it’s highly unlikely he has any untapped potential and he figures to remain mediocre at best.

Rasheem Green (385 snaps) and Yannick Ngakoue (592 snaps) also struggled in significant roles last season and, while neither was retained this off-season, the Bears other edge defender options for 2024 aren’t any better. Dominique Robinson is their top returning reserve at the position and he was arguably the worst of the bunch, with a 35.3 PFF grade on 242 snaps and a pitiful 3.2% pressure rate. A 7th round pick in 2022, Robinson also struggled with a 5.3% pressure rate and a 45.9 PFF grade on 549 snaps as a rookie and, even if he happens to be better in year three, he still figures to be a liability in a significant reserve role.

Austin Booker and Jacob Martin were added to the mix this off-season, but not much should be expected out of either, with Booker being a 5th round rookie and Martin being a career journeyman reserve who was signed to a contract of just 1-year, 1.3 million. Martin played just 192 snaps for the Colts last season, his 3rd team in the past two seasons, and has only played more than 400 snaps in a season once in six seasons in the league, while consistently receiving grades in the 50s and 60s from PFF. Montez Sweat was a much needed addition to this group mid-season last year and having him for the full season in 2024 will be a boost to this defense, but the rest of this group is still a big concern.

Grade: B-

Interior Defenders

Not much changes at the interior defender spot for the Bears in 2024. Justin Jones (740 snaps), Andrew Billings (506 snaps), Gervin Dexter (433 snaps), and Zacch Pickens (264 snaps) all saw significant action at the position last season. None of them missed any time with injury last season, which is unlikely to happen again, and Jones, who led the group in snaps played last season, left this off-season and wasn’t replaced, but Jones struggled mightily with a 49.3 PFF grade, so his absence might be addition by subtraction and both Dexter and Pickens were rookies last season who could step up in bigger roles in year two in 2024. They were mediocre with PFF grades of 50.9 and 54.9 respectively as rookies, but they were also drafted in the second and third round respectively and have the upside to take a step forward in their second year in the NFL.

Billings was the best of the bunch in 2023, finishing with a 66.3 PFF grade. He’s normally been a solid starter when healthy in his career, posting grades of 71.1, 69.3, and 76.4 on snap counts of 632, 657, and 478 respectively, with injuries limiting him to 72 snaps total in 2020 and 2021. His injury history is somewhat concerning, but aside from that 2-year stretch, he’s only missed three games in his last four healthy seasons, so he’s not necessarily an injury prone player. Still only in his age 29 season, Billings should remain a solid starter in 2024, as long as he can avoid any unexpected major injuries. This group is still thin behind Billings and the two second year players, but they could still add decent depth at this point in the off-season and it’s not a bad position group, especially if one or both of the young players can take a step forward in year two.

Grade: C+

Linebackers

The Bears didn’t make any additions at the linebacker position this off-season, but they overhauled the group in a big way last off-season, giving big contracts to Tremaine Edmunds (4 years, 72 million) and TJ Edwards (3 years, 19.5 million) as part of their off-season spending spree. Edwards was the cheaper of the two, but was by far the better of the two in his first season in Chicago, ranking 14th among off ball linebackers with a 79.6 PFF grade on 1,042 snaps, while Edmunds disappointed with a 56.6 PFF grade on 876 snaps.

Despite the contracts they got, neither of those results was a surprise. Edwards was a steal in free agency, having received grades of 76.3 and 84.8 from PFF on snap counts of 684 and 1,040 respectively in his final two seasons in Philadelphia before joining the Bears. The 2019 undrafted free agent took a couple years to become a starter, but he always flashed potential dating back to his rookie season and has developed into one of the most consistently good off ball linebackers in the league.

Edmunds, meanwhile, had a dominant final season in Buffalo with a 79.0 PFF grade on 760 snaps, leading to the Bears giving the 2018 first round pick that massive contract, but he had been inconsistent throughout his time with the Bills, receiving grades lower than 60 from PFF in three of five seasons. He’s always produced impressive tackle totals, but aside from his contract season in Buffalo, he has also always consistently missed a lot of tackles and has consistently struggled in coverage. 

Still only going into his age 26 season, Edmunds does have some bounce back potential, but it’s unlikely he’ll ever be consistently good enough to justify a contract that makes him the 3rd highest paid off ball linebacker in the league in terms of average annual salary. Fortunately, the Bears have Edwards, who should remain one of the better players in the league at the position and a steal at his current salary. Together, Edwards and Edmunds are a linebacker duo that is better than most around the league.

The Bears also have good depth at the linebacker position. Jack Sanborn went undrafted in 2022, but has shown potential in limited action in two seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 64.5 and 67.3 on snap counts of 330 and 412 in 2022 and 2023 respectively. He’s best as a part-time player, primarily playing run defense in base packages, but he could also fill in for a few games as an every down linebacker as well. On top of that, 2023 5th round pick Noah Sewell flashed potential as a rookie, albeit on only 27 snaps. He’s inexperienced, but you could do a lot worse than him as a 4th linebacker who will probably only see significant action if there are multiple injuries ahead of him on the depth chart. Overall, this is an above average position group.

Grade: A-

Secondary

The Bears have some talented players on this defense like Montez Sweat and TJ Edwards, but their best defensive player in 2023 was cornerback Jaylon Johnson, who led all cornerbacks in the league with a 90.8 PFF grade, while allowing a ridiculous 33.3 QB rating on passes into his coverage and just 195 yards receiving allowed on 530 coverage snaps. Johnson had never had a season nearly that good before, as the 2020 2nd round pick received grades of 54.9, 64.2, and 62.9 from PFF in his first three seasons in the league, but he’s only going into his age 25 season and the Bears rightfully locked him up long-term after his dominant 2023 campaign, giving him a 4-year, 76 million dollar deal that makes him the 7th highest paid cornerback in the NFL in terms of average annual salary. He might not be quite as good again in 2024, in part because it’s really hard to be that good two years in a row and in part because he’s never been close to that good before, but I wouldn’t expect him to regress to his pre-2023 form and he’s obviously one of the best young cornerbacks in the league.

The rest of the Bears’ cornerbacks aren’t nearly as good, but at least they have some promising young players with upside. Kyler Gordon was a 2nd round pick in 2022 and, after a disappointing rookie season in which he received a 49.8 PFF grade across 863 snaps, he took a big step forward in year two, with a 65.6 PFF grade across 646 snaps. Gordon might not necessarily be better in year three than he was in year two, but it’s unlikely he’ll regress back to his rookie year form and he could easily take another step forward. Tyrique Stevenson is also a recent second round pick, selected in 2023, and, unlike Gordon, he didn’t relly struggle as a rookie, with a 60.2 PFF grade across 830 snaps. He should remain at least a capable starting cornerback in 2024 and, like Gordon, also has the upside to take a step forward in 2024. 

Behind their top-3 on the depth chart, the Bears also have Terell Smith, who was only a 5th round pick in 2023, but who wasn’t bad with a 69.6 PFF grade across 377 snaps as a rookie. He could struggle if forced into a bigger role, but, barring injury, he won’t open the season any higher than 4th on the depth chart and he’s a promising prospect and good depth to have. #5 cornerback Jaylon Jones is also young and, while the 2022 undrafted free agent struggled with a 48.4 PFF grade on 466 snaps as a rookie, he was better with a 61.8 PFF grade on 148 snaps in year two. He also could struggle if forced into significant action again, but he would need multiple injuries ahead of him on the depth chart for that to happen and you could do a lot worse than him as your 5th cornerback, especially given that he’s young and could continue improving.

The only big addition to this defense this off-season was safety Kevin Byard, who signed on a 2-year, 15 million dollar deal. Byard is going into his age 31 season and his best days are almost definitely behind him, but he should still prove to be an upgrade at safety over departed veteran Eddie Jackson, who finished last season with a 58.6 PFF grade in 12 starts. Even at less than his prime form, Byard still had a 74.0 PFF grade last season and the fact that last season was his 2nd worst PFF grade of the past seven seasons is a testament to how consistently good Byard was in his prime, receiving a 90.2 PFF grade as recently as 2021. He is highly unlikely to be that good in 2024, but he’s not totally over the hill yet and, even if he continues declining, there’s a good chance he remains at least an above average starter. He’s also been very durable throughout his career, never once missing a game due to injury. He has a good chance to be a good value on a relatively inexpensive contract.

JaQuan Brisker remains as the other starting safety. Another young player in this secondary, Brisker was selected in the second round in 2022 and has been a solid starter thus far in his career, making 30 total starts in two seasons in the league and receiving grades from PFF of 67.0 and 66.7 respectively. Now in his third season in the league, he should continue at least being solid and he has the upside to take a step forward and have the best year of his career thus far.

The Bears also added veteran Jonathan Owens in free agency to give them a better third safety, after Elijah Hicks struggled with a 46.2 PFF grade on 487 snaps in that role in 2023. A relatively old player compared to much of this secondary in his age 29 season, Owens had mixed results as a starter with the Texans and Packers over the past two seasons, receiving a 48.3 PFF grade on 970 snaps in 2022 and a 61.9 PFF grade on 774 snaps in 2023, but he’s not a bad third safety option. 

Hicks, meanwhile, will be the 4th safety and is not a bad fit for that role. Hicks was better on 168 snaps as a rookie, with a 63.2 PFF grade, and the 2022 7th round pick is still relatively young and could have some untapped upside. Top cornerback Jaylon Johnson might not be quite as good as he was a year ago, but the arrow is pointing up for the rest of this secondary, because of the potential of their young talent, as well as the upgrade that free agent addition Kevin Byard should provide over Eddie Jackson.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

If the Bears played as good all last season as they did down the stretch last season after their defense added Montez Sweat, they could have qualified for the post-season or at least come close in the weak NFC. This off-season, they added even more talent to this roster and almost definitely got a quarterback upgrade with Caleb Williams. With the NFC still being weak, I would expect this team to at least make the post-season, barring significant injuries, and if Williams can have a big rookie year, this team has enough talent around him to be contenders right away.

Prediction: 10-7, 2nd in NFC North

2024 NFL Mock Draft (Final)

stevenlourie Uncategorized
  1. Chicago Bears – QB Caleb Williams (USC)*
  2. Washington Commanders – QB Jayden Daniels (LSU)*
  3. New England Patriots – QB Drake Maye (North Carolina)*
  4. Arizona Cardinals – WR Marvin Harrison (Ohio State)*
  5. Minnesota Vikings (TRADE) – QB JJ McCarthy (Michigan)
  6. New York Giants – WR Malik Nabers (LSU)*
  7. Tennessee Titans – OT Joe Alt (Notre Dame)*
  8. Atlanta Falcons – CB Quinyon Mitchell (Toledo)*
  9. Chicago Bears – WR Rome Odunze (Washington)*
  10. New York Jets – TE Brock Bowers (Georgia)
  11. Los Angeles Chargers (TRADE) – OT JC Latham (Alabama)
  12. Denver Broncos – QB Michael Penix (Washington)*
  13. Las Vegas Raiders – ED Dallas Turner (Alabama)
  14. New Orleans Saints – OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu (Penn State)
  15. Indianapolis Colts – CB Terrion Arnold (Alabama)
  16. Seattle Seahawks – OT Troy Fautanu (Washington)
  17. Jacksonville Jaguars – CB Nate Wiggins (Clemson)
  18. Cincinnati Bengals – WR Brian Thomas (LSU)
  19. Los Angeles Rams – ED Laiatu Latu (UCLA)
  20. Pittsburgh Steelers – CB Cooper DeJean (Iowa)
  21. Miami Dolphins – DT Byron Murphy (Texas)
  22. Philadelphia Eagles – OT Amarius Mims (Georgia)
  23. Los Angeles Chargers – DT Jer’Zhan Newton (Illinois)
  24. Dallas Cowboys – WR Adonai Mitchell (Texas)
  25. Green Bay Packers – OT Taliese Fuaga (Oregon State)
  26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – ED Jared Verse (Florida State)
  27. Arizona Cardinals – CB Kool-Aid McKinstry (Alabama)
  28. Buffalo Bills – WR Xavier Worthy (Texas)
  29. Detroit Lions – CB Ennis Rakestraw (Missouri)
  30. Baltimore Ravens – DT Jer’Zhan Newton (Illinois)
  31. San Francisco 49ers – G Graham Barton (Duke)
  32. Kansas City Chiefs – WR Xavier Legette (South Carolina)

2024 NFL Mock Draft

stevenlourie Uncategorized

Updated: 3/27/24

Next update: Early-to-mid April

1. Chicago Bears – QB Caleb Williams (USC)

Caleb Williams has been locked into this spot for months. The only question has been whether the Bears would trade this pick for a king’s ransom or use it themselves, but the most likely option was always keeping the pick and that was confirmed when the Bears traded incumbent quarterback Justin Fields to the Steelers for a conditional draft pick in 2025, freeing up their starting quarterback spot for Williams.

2. Washington Commanders – QB Drake Maye (North Carolina)

In a way, this is where the draft really begins, with Williams to the Bears at #1 being a lock. The Commanders will almost definitely be using this pick on a quarterback, with veteran journeyman backup Marcus Mariota being the only quarterback of note on their roster, following the trade of incumbent starter Sam Howell to the Seahawks. Which quarterback that will be is not as clear, with strong cases to be made for both Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, and even JJ McCarthy. I could see any of three going here, but rumors are that the Commanders’ new front office loves the high upside Maye over the more polished Daniels, with McCarthy as the wild card option.

3. New England Patriots – QB Jayden Daniels (LSU)

The Patriots could use this pick on Marvin Harrison, a generational wide receiver prospect, after striking out on wide receivers in free agency, or they could trade down and accumulate multiple picks to address their many needs, but I still think it’s most likely that they take one of the quarterbacks that Washington doesn’t. A franchise quarterback is still the most valuable asset in the NFL and opportunities to pick high in a strong quarterback draft don’t come every year.

4. Arizona Cardinals – WR Marvin Harrison (Ohio State)

Arizona is in a good spot as the highest drafting team that doesn’t need a quarterback. They could trade down here with a team that needs a quarterback and accumulate more picks, or they could take the consensus best non-quarterback in the draft in Marvin Harrison, who would fill a huge need at wide receiver. A trade is a possibility, but the price will probably be steep because of the opportunity cost of not getting Harrison and the Cardinals already have another pick in the first round, so I think it’s more likely that they just stay put and take Harrison.

5. Minnesota Vikings (TRADE) – QB JJ McCarthy (Michigan)

The Chargers are also in a good spot at 5, not needing a quarterback, because they can either take Harrison if the Cardinals trade down with a quarterback needy team or they can be the ones to trade down for multiple picks if the Cardinals opt to take Harrison. In this scenario, the Cardinals take Harrison and the Chargers trade down with the Vikings, who acquired another first round pick (23) in a trade with the Texans and, as a result, can present the best package to move up. The Vikings are desperate for a quarterback after losing Kirk Cousins and replacing him with Sam Darnold and they reportedly love JJ McCarthy, who is a likely top-10, if not top-5 pick, depending on trades. A package of their original first round pick at 11, the Texans’ pick at 23, and a later pick in 2025 should be enough to get this done and it would make a lot of sense for the Chargers, who don’t need a quarterback, but have multiple pressing needs.

6. New York Giants – WR Rome Odunze (Washington)

The Giants could take JJ McCarthy here if he’s available, with Daniel Jones likely to be released at the end of next season when his guaranteed money is up, but Minnesota moved up ahead of them to grab McCarthy, so the Giants will have to address another position. Fortunately, they do have many other pressing needs, including wide receiver, where the Giants lack a #1 option or even a good #2. Malik Nabers is an option to be the second wide receiver off the board behind Harrison, but I think Odunze is a little bit ahead of him right now. He’d give Daniel Jones the true #1 option he’s never really had and, in the likely scenario that the Giants decide to move on from Jones in a year when his guaranteed money is up, Odunze will make life easier for whoever their next quarterback happens to be.

7. Tennessee Titans – OT Joe Alt (Notre Dame)

The Titans are another team with a ton of needs, but their biggest one is offensive line and fortunately this is a very strong offensive line class. The Titans used a first round pick on Peter Skoronski in last year’s draft, but aside from free agent acquisition center Lloyd Cushenberry, Skoronski is the only player locked into a starting job on their offensive line in 2024 and he’s probably a guard long-term. Even if Skoronski ends up being a tackle long-term, the Titans need a bookend for him and Alt, who is probably the top tackle prospect in this draft, is a great value here at 7.

8. Atlanta Falcons – CB Quinyon Mitchell (Toledo)

The Falcons are likely to focus on defense here, after addressing their biggest offensive needs of quarterback and wide receiver in free agency with Kirk Cousins and Darnell Mooney. This is a weak defensive draft at the top compared to the elite offensive prospects in this draft, but the Falcons should have their choice of defenders at 8 and this would be a good spot for the first defensive player to come off the board. Edge defender Dallas Turner is a strong option and would add to this team’s pass rush, but cornerback is a slightly bigger need in my opinion and Quinyon Mitchell is a similar caliber prospect as Turner.

9. Chicago Bears – WR Malik Nabers (LSU)

The Bears traded for Keenan Allen to give them another option at wide receiver opposite DJ Moore, but the Bears only gave up a 4th round pick in that trade and Allen is going into his age 32 season and a contract year, so that trade doesn’t preclude the Bears from taking a wide receiver at 9. Nabers would give them a needed third wide receiver in the short-term and a long-term bookend for DJ Moore. Teams normally take a complementary offensive player with their next pick after taking a first round quarterback and Nabers would be their best option, given that the Bears do have an intriguing young offensive line already.

10. New York Jets – TE Brock Bowers (Georgia)

Offensive tackle was the Jets’ biggest need coming into this off-season, but they addressed it with Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses, who will start on the left and right side respectively in 2024. They’ll also be in their age 34 and age 33 seasons respectively, so the Jets could still take a tackle of the future here and plug him in at guard in the meantime, but the Jets also signed John Simpson to a sizeable contract in free agency to be their other guard opposite Alijah Vera-Tucker, who is probably their best returning offensive lineman, so guard isn’t really a need and, on top of that, the Jets are in win now mode with a quarterback in Aaron Rodgers who is heading into his age 41 season, so they’ll probably use this pick in a way that best maximizes their chances of winning in 2024. With that in mind, Brock Bowers makes a lot of sense as an elite tight end prospect who can fill an immediate need and contribute in a big way right away.

11. Los Angeles Chargers (TRADE) – OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu (Penn State)

The Chargers’ trade down works out well as they can get a player at 11 who would have been in consideration at 5. If the Chargers stay put at 5, a wide receiver Like Rome Odunze or Malik Nabers would be a strong possibility and if they stay put at 5 and take a tackle Joe Alt is more likely than Fashanu, but Fashanu would at least be in consideration and, with the other three aforementioned players off the board here at 11, this becomes an easy choice for the Chargers, who have a pressing need at right tackle that Fashanu can fill right away. The Chargers would then target a wide receiver or address one of their many defensive needs with their second pick in the first round at 23.

12. Denver Broncos – ED Dallas Turner (Alabama)

The Broncos are another team that will attempt to move up for a quarterback, with Jarrett Stidham currently penciled in as their starter, but they don’t have the multiple 2024 first round picks the Vikings have and they might not want to trade away multiple future high draft picks after all of the high draft picks they gave away for Russell Wilson, so the most likely scenario is they stay put at 12, miss out on one of the top-4 quarterback prospects, and address the position on day 2. At 12, Dallas Turner would be a strong option because he could be argued as the best available player and would fill a need at the edge defender position for a team who ranked just 23rd on PFF in team pass rush grade in 2023.

13. Las Vegas Raiders – CB Terrion Arnold (Alabama)

This pick stays the same from my pre-free agency mock draft, as cornerback was one of the Raiders’ biggest needs going into free agency and went unaddressed, with mediocre incumbent starter Amik Robertson signing with the Lions. Arnold would provide a starting caliber cornerback for a team that doesn’t really have one outside of Nate Hobbs.

14. New Orleans Saints – OT Troy Fautanu (Washington)

Trevor Penning was the Saints’ first round pick in 2022, but he’s largely been a bust in two years in the league, making just 6 starts thus far in his career due to a combination of injury and ineffectiveness. The Saints might give him one more shot at the left tackle job in 2024, but they at least need a good alternative at the position and Fautanu can give them that, while also giving them a starting option at guard, where James Hurst is a mediocre option in his age 33 season.

15. Indianapolis Colts – CB Nate Wiggins (Clemson)

The Colts re-signed Kenny Moore in free agency and have 2023 2nd round pick JuJu Brents, but they need a third cornerback to go with them. Nate Wiggins makes sense here for a team that doesn’t have a lot of other pressing needs. He’ll probably be the third cornerback off the board behind Quinyon Mitchell and Terrion Arnold, but he still has a good chance to be drafted in the teens.

16. Seattle Seahawks – OT JC Latham (Alabama)

The Seahawks’ offensive line struggled last season with both offensive tackle Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas missing time with injury and their replacement options struggling in their absence. Latham would give them a better insurance policy and could also play guard for a team that needs to replace Damien Lewis, who signed with the Panthers this off-season as a free agent.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars – ED Jared Verse (Florida State)

Jared Verse is a bit of a luxury pick for the Jaguars who don’t have any pressing needs that line up with the best players available at this point in the draft. Josh Allen and Travon Walker both had double digit sack seasons at the edge defender position last year, but their depth behind them is really lacking and Verse is a great value at 17. Allen is also on the franchise tag and has yet to be signed long-term.

18. Cincinnati Bengals – WR Brian Thomas (LSU)

Wide receiver might not seem like a big need for the Bengals, but they’re unlikely to re-sign Tyler Boyd in free agency this off-season, while the franchise tagged Tee Higgins might not be kept beyond this next season, with the Bengals’ cap situation getting tougher in the next few years with extensions for Joe Burrow and JaMarr Chase due. Thomas would give them a long-term receiving option opposite Chase and it doesn’t hurt that he also went to LSU, where Burrow and Chase both did.

19. Los Angeles Rams – ED Laiatu Latu (UCLA)

It’s weird seeing the Rams finally picking in the first round again. Trading down and accumulating multiple picks is a strong possibility, given how good they’ve been at finding gems in the mid-rounds, but if they stay put, Laiatu Latu would make a lot of sense, as the Rams need to get better at the edge defender position. Michael Hoecht started 17 games there in 2023, but struggled playing out of position and was tendered at the lowest level as a restricted free agent this off-season, which likely means the Rams don’t view him as a long-term starter opposite 2023 3rd round pick Byron Young, one of those mid-round gems, who showed a lot of promise in year one.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers – OT Taliese Fuaga (Oregon State)

The Steelers used their first round pick on Broderick Jones in last year’s draft, but they need a long-term bookend for him, with incumbent starting left tackle Dan Moore being a mediocre option who now heads into the final year of his contract. The Steelers could take advantage of a strong offensive tackle class and use their first round pick on that position in back-to-back years.

21. Miami Dolphins – DT Byron Murphy (Texas)

The Dolphins probably wanted to keep Christian Wilkins, but for financial reasons they couldn’t franchise tag him or match the 4-year, 110 million dollar deal he got from the Raiders in free agency. They could opt to replace him in the draft and Byron Murphy would be a good fit for them with the 21st pick.

22. Philadelphia Eagles – CB Cooper DeJean (Iowa)

Darius Slay and James Bradberry were one of the best cornerback duos in the league during the Eagles run to the Super Bowl in 2022, but both took a big step back in 2023 and now they head into their age 33 and age 31 seasons respectively, so the Eagles will likely look at young cornerbacks early in the draft. DeJean can play the slot and/or safety while Slay and Bradberry remain on the roster as outside cornerbacks and DeJean the potential to be a long-term option on the outside as well.

23. Los Angeles Chargers (TRADE) – WR Xavier Legette (South Carolina)

With the Chargers parting ways with both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams for financial reasons this off-season, wide receiver becomes a huge position of need for them. Last year’s first round pick Quentin Johnston has been a bust thus far and, even if he turns it around, the Chargers still don’t have much at the wide receiver position behind him. The Chargers will consider wide receivers with the 5th pick and if they move down to accumulate more picks, expect them to use at least one of their early picks on the position.

24. Dallas Cowboys – WR Adonai Mitchell (Texas)

The Cowboys still don’t have a good #2 wide receiver opposite Ceedee Lamb. Brandin Cooks was brought in last off-season, but he disappointed and now heads into his age 31 contract year. On top of that, fellow wide receiver Michael Gallup was also cut this off-season, rather than being paid 9.5 million dollars non-guaranteed on a contract that he signed when he was a much better player before his ACL tear. The Cowboys will likely address this position early in the draft. Mitchell would likely start as the #3 receiver behind Lamb and Cooks, but would give them a long-term complement for Lamb that they currently lack.

25. Green Bay Packers – OT Amarius Mims (Georgia)

It wasn’t a surprise the Packers cut David Bakhtiari, who was owed 20.9 million in his age 33 season in 2024 and had played just 13 games in the past 3 seasons due to knee problems, but the Packers also let Yosh Nijman leave in free agency and he was their primary fill-in for Bakhtiari over the past few seasons, so the Packers are pretty thin at the tackle position now. Rasheed Walker is currently penciled into the left tackle job, but he’s better off as a swing tackle. This is a position they could address in the first round of a strong offensive tackle class.

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – ED Chop Robinson (Penn State)

The Buccaneers made the aging Shaq Barrett a cap casualty this off-season and now need help at the edge defender position. Yaya Diaby and Joe Tyron-Shoyinka are young players with some promise, but the Buccaneers could add another blue chip prospect to the mix in the first round of the draft.

27. Arizona Cardinals – CB Ennis Rakestraw (Missouri)

Going into the off-season, the Cardinals didn’t have any starting caliber cornerbacks. They added Sean Murphy-Bunting in free agency, but he’s a very underwhelming option as a de facto #1 cornerback and they don’t have much behind him on the depth chart, so expect them to address this position relatively early in the draft.

28. Buffalo Bills – ED Darius Robinson (Missouri)

Veteran edge defenders Leonard Floyd and Shaq Lawson weren’t brought back this off-season. AJ Epenesa was re-signed and, along with Greg Rousseau, those two younger players will likely play bigger roles in 2024, but the Bills can’t count on their depth behind them, with their only real option being Von Miller, who is now going into his age 35 season and didn’t look nearly the same as usual in 2023 after another major injury. The Bills will probably add an edge defender early in the draft.

29. Detroit Lions – CB Kool-Aid McKinstry (Alabama)

The Lions had to cut starting cornerback Cameron Sutton because of off-the-field problems, leaving them with a need at the position. The Lions fortunately acquired Carlton Davis from the Buccaneers via trade and Amik Robertson as a free agent, but Robertson is a mediocre option who didn’t get a big contract and, even if he locks down a starting job, the Lions could still use another, with Brian Branch potentially moving full-time to safety in 2023 in the absence of Tracy Walker and CJ Gardner-Johnson, who both left the team this off-season.

30. Baltimore Ravens – DT Jer’Zhan Newton (Illinois)

The Ravens re-signed Justin Madubuike and Michael Pierce this off-season, but still could use an upgrade at the third spot on their 3-man base defensive line, with the mediocre Brent Urban penciled into that spot for what would be his age 33 season in 2024. Newton would give them that upgrade while also having the ability to play all three downs inside next to Madubuike.

31. San Francisco 49ers – G Graham Barton (Duke)

The 49ers could use some young offensive line help with three of their projected five starting offensive linemen for 2024 being on the wrong side of 30, with left tackle Trent Williams going into his age 36 season and center Jake Brendel and guard Jon Feliciano both going into their age 32 seasons. Graham Barton has the versatility to play anywhere on the offensive line and would be a good fit for the 49ers zone blocking scheme.

32. Kansas City Chiefs – OT Tyler Guyton (Oklahoma)

The Chiefs won the Super Bowl this season, but their offense struggled by its normal standards because of issues in the receiving corps and on the offensive line. The Chiefs addressed their receiving corps in free agency with Marquise Brown and have a promising young receiver in Rashee Rice going into his second season in the league in 2024, so the tackle position is probably a bigger need for them now, with inexperienced 2023 3rd round pick Wanya Morris being an underwhelming option to replace veteran Donovan Smith on the blindside and highly paid right tackle Jawaan Taylor struggling mightily in his first season in Kansas City. Tyler Guyton could help right away at either spot.

2019 NFL Draft Redo

stevenlourie NFL Draft Redos

1. Arizona Cardinals – QB Kyler Murray (Oklahoma)

    A lot of teams would take Nick Bosa or one of the other elite non-quarterbacks in this draft class, but a rule I use in these redrafts is that a team will usually stick with their original pick if it’s someone they paid big money on a long-term extension and the Cardinals gave Murray a 5-year, 230.5 million dollar extension that tops any other extension received by a player in this draft class. Another rule I use is that a franchise quarterback tops anything else and, while Murray has had his injuries and his ups and downs, the Cardinals still view him as a franchise quarterback, opting to keep him despite hefty salaries and back-to-back top-4 draft picks in the past two years. 

    In total, Murray has completed 66.6% of his passes for 6.99 YPA, 94 touchdowns, and 46 interceptions in 65 career starts, while rushing for 5.76 YPC and 26 touchdowns on 425 carries and finishing over 70 on PFF in three times and over 80 twice in 5 seasons in the league. The Cardinals haven’t had a ton of team success with him (28-36-1 in his starts), but he usually hasn’t been the main problem for this team in their losses.

    2. San Francisco 49ers – DE Nick Bosa (Ohio State)

      The 49ers have to be ecstatic that the Cardinals chose to stick with Kyler Murray, allowing them to keep Nick Bosa. Bosa’s 5-year, 170 million dollar extension is well behind Murray’s, but it still makes him the highest paid non-quarterback in the league as of this writing. The 2019 Defensive Rookie of the Year and 2022 Defensive Player of the Year, Bosa has totaled 53.5 sacks, 92 hits, and a 16.2% pressure rate in 68 career games, while surpassing 89 on PFF in every full season of his career. A 2020 season ended by a torn ACL after 68 snaps is the only negative on his resume, but he’s clearly overcome that and, not even 27 until October, he looks likely to remain one of the best defensive players in the league for years to come.

      3. New York Jets – DT Quinnen Williams (Alabama)

        Here’s another team sticking with their original pick. Quinnen Williams isn’t quite on the level of Nick Bosa, but he’s developed into one of the best interior defenders in the league and was kept by the Jets on a 4-year, 96 million dollar extension. Also a good run defender, Williams has totaled 33 sacks, 44 hits, and a 10.8% pressure rate in 75 career games, very impressive for an interior pass rusher, and he’s especially come into his own the past two seasons, surpassing 90 overall on PFF in both seasons, with 17.5 sacks, 26 hits, and a 13.8% pressure rate in 33 games. Not 27 until December, Williams should remain an All-Pro caliber interior defender for the next few years.

        4. Oakland Raiders – DE Maxx Crosby (Eastern Michigan)

          The Raiders whiffed badly on their original pick here, taking Clelin Ferrell, who totaled just 10 sacks in 58 games with the Raiders and had his 5th year option declined, before signing with the 49ers on a 1-year, 2.5 million dollar deal last off-season. However, the Raiders made up for it by using a 4th round pick in this draft on Maxx Crosby, who has developed into one of the best edge defenders in the league and who was kept by the Raiders on a 4-year, 94 million dollar extension. In this redraft, the Raiders will have to take him 4th overall to keep him, but I don’t think they’ll mind, given how badly they messed up this pick originally. Crosby isn’t quite on Bosa’s level, but he’s still totaled 52 sacks, 76 hits, and a 12.6% pressure rate in 83 career games, especially dominating over the past three seasons, with grades above 90 overall in all three seasons and a total of 35 sacks, 61 hits, and a 14.5% pressure rate in 51 games.

          5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DE Josh Allen (Kentucky)

            The Buccaneers signed Shaq Barrett in the 2019 off-season and paired him with Jason Pierre-Paul, but Pierre-Paul was in his age 30 season and on the decline in 2019 and two years later the Buccaneers used a first round pick in the 2021 NFL Draft on Joe Tyron-Shoyinka, who hasn’t quite lived up to expectations. Instead, the Buccaneers use the 5th pick in this draft to give themselves a very talented trio of edge defenders in the short-term and a dominant edge defender in the long-term, with Allen developing into one of the best players in the league at his position. 

            Allen has never been bad, but he’s seen his PFF grade increase in every season in the league since being selected 7th overall by Jacksonville in 2019, from 68.4 as a rookie to 89.5 in 2023. In the past three seasons, he has exceeded 78 on PFF in every season while totaling 32 sacks, 45 hits, and a 14.5% pressure rate in 50 games, including career highs with 17.5 sacks, 18 hits, and a 17.5% pressure rate in 2023, setting him up for a probable franchise tag from the Jaguars this off-season and ultimately a massive contract that will likely make him among the highest paid defensive players in the league.

            6. New York Giants – DT Dexter Lawrence (Clemson)

              The Giants originally used this pick on quarterback Daniel Jones, who they re-signed on a 4-year, 160 million dollar deal last off-season, but that was after they declined his 5th year option and the Giants already seem to be regretting that extension, as they are reportedly interested in quarterbacks with their 6th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, or even potentially moving up for a quarterback, despite Jones’ 36 million dollar salary for 2024 being fully guaranteed. Jones has been an effective runner, with a 5.77 YPC and 13 touchdowns on 332 career carries and the problems with the Giants passing game haven’t all been his fault, but his 85.2 QB rating is not what you’d expect out of a quarterback taken 6th overall and he’s also had a lot of injury problems, missing 23 games total and at least three games in four of five seasons in the league.

              Instead, the Giants use this pick on Dexter Lawrence, who they originally took 17th and extended on a 4-year, 87.5 million dollar extension that rightfully makes him one of the highest paid interior defenders in the league. Also a dominant run stuffer, Lawrence has totaled 21 sacks, 61 hits, and a 10.7% pressure rate in 80 career games, while surpassing 75 on PFF in four of five seasons in the league, especially dominating over the past two seasons, with 92.0 and 92.9 overall grades from PFF and 12 sacks, 39 hits, and a 13.3% pressure rate in 32 games. He wouldn’t last until 17 in a redraft so the Giants have to take him here to keep him.

              7. Jacksonville Jaguars – WR AJ Brown (Mississippi)

                The Jaguars lose out on their original pick Josh Allen in this redraft, as he went two picks earlier to Tampa Bay, but the Jaguars still have plenty of good players to choose from here. They could take another defensive lineman from this talented defensive line class, but this wide receiver class is almost as good and the Jaguars can address a big need by taking the first wide receiver off the board. The 2018 Jaguars were led in receiving by Dede Westbrook, who finished with just a 66/717/5 slash line and, while DJ Chark led the Jaguars with a 73/1008/8 slash line in 2019, he never came close to those numbers again.

                Brown, meanwhile, has averaged a 84/1313/9 slash line per 17 games in his career, including 88/1496/11 in 2022 and 106/1456/7 in 2023 and he’s been even better than those totals suggest, as he’s consistently played on run heavy offenses, meaning his receiving totals would likely be even higher on teams that pass the ball more often. His career 2.58 yards per route run average and 9.94 yards per target average are among the best in the league since he was drafted and he’s ranked 3rd, 3rd, 6th, 3rd, and 9th in yards per route run among wide receivers in his five seasons in the league.

                8. Detroit Lions – DE Rashan Gary (Michigan)

                  The Lions could also take a wide receiver here, with 2019 leading receiver Kenny Golladay totaling a 65/1190/11 slash line, but never coming close to those numbers again, but defense has been more of a consistent problem for the Lions in recent years than offense, so instead they focus on that side of the ball and take yet another of the talented defensive linemen in this class. The 2018 Lions didn’t have anyone with more than 7.5 sacks and tried to remedy that by giving a big contract to Trey Flowers, who took home 56 million over three seasons, but only gave the Lions 10.5 sacks in 27 games.

                  Gary took a couple years to come into his own and had his 2022 season ended by a torn ACL, but at his best he’s been as good as any of the defensive linemen taken ahead of him. Since becoming a starter in his third season in the league in 2021, Gary has totaled 24.5 sacks, 35 hits, and a 17.4% pressure rate in 42 games, while surpassing 80 on PFF in all three seasons, despite his major knee injury. Not even 27 until December, Gary should remain one of the best edge defenders in the league for years to come.

                  9. Buffalo Bills – WR Deebo Samuel (South Carolina)

                    The Bills original pick here was Ed Oliver, an interior defender who they extended on a 4-year, 68 million dollar deal, but they can shoot a little higher here in a redraft. The Bills added to their receiving corps in a big way the year after this draft by trading for Stefon Diggs, but Deebo Samuel would give them help in the receiving corps a year earlier and would give them a good complement for Diggs, making this one of the best receiving corps in the league. Injuries have been a concern for Deebo Samuel throughout his career, costing him 17 games total, but he’s averaged a 73/1062/5 slash line per 17 games with 2.29 yards per route run and 9.61 yards per target, while also adding 6.29 YPC and 19 touchdowns on 160 career carries. He would make Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense even more dangerous.

                    10. Pittsburgh Steelers – WR DK Metcalf (Mississippi)

                      The 2018 Steelers had a pair of 1000+ yard receivers Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster, but Brown was traded after the season and Smith-Schuster never topped 1000 yards in a season again. The Steelers replaced Brown with Diontae Johnson in the 3rd round of the 2019 NFL Draft and he’s been a solid wide receiver for them, but they could shoot higher in the first round with DK Metcalf, who has averaged 77/1105/9 per 17 games, 8.63 yards per target, and 1.91 yards per route run in his career. Johnson, for comparison, has averaged 85/951/5 per 17 games, 6.83 yards per target, and 1.72 yards per route run.

                      11. Cincinnati Bengals – G Chris Lindstrom (Boston College)

                        The Bengals were right to try to upgrade their offensive line with this pick, but their original choice Jonah Williams didn’t prove to be worth this selection, missing his entire rookie season with injury, never reaching an elite level, losing his left tackle job to free agent acquisition Orlando Brown last off-season, and potentially being allowed to walk as a free agent this off-season, after a mediocre season at right tackle in 2023. Instead, the Bengals take Chris Lindstrom, who has developed into one of the best guards in the league. Originally taken 14th by the Falcons, Lindstrom took a couple years to develop into the player he is now, but still had PFF grades of 66.6 and 77.1 in his first two seasons in the league and he’s received grades of 83.7, 95.0, and 87.6 over the past three seasons. He would be a big help for a Bengals team that has consistently had offensive line problems in recent years.

                        12. Green Bay Packers – DT Jeffery Simmons (Mississippi State)

                          The Packers miss out on their original pick Rashan Gary, who was selected a few picks earlier by the Lions, but they can still get a great defensive lineman at this point in the draft. Simmons is an interior defender, unlike Gary who was an edge player, but interior defender was arguably a bigger need at that point, as Gary sat behind Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith for most of his first two seasons in the league, while Simmons could have quickly beaten out Dean Lowry for a starting role on the interior. 

                          Simmons fell to the Titans at 19 originally, but that was because he tore his ACL in the pre-draft process. He was limited to 315 snaps in 9 games as a rookie because of his injury, but flashed his potential immediately with a 70.4 PFF grade in that limited action and has since developed into one of the better interior defenders in the league, while staying mostly healthy. In 68 career games, he has 26.5 sacks, 31 hits, and a 9.1% pressure rate while playing high level run defense, leading to four seasons over 70 overall and two seasons over 80 overall on PFF.

                          13. Miami Dolphins – DE Brian Burns (Florida State)

                            I thought about giving the Dolphins their original pick Christian Wilkins, who has developed into an above average interior defender, but the Dolphins are reportedly not going to franchise tag him ahead of his pending free agency this off-season and ultimately they can aim a little higher in a redo. The 2019 Dolphins were one of the worst teams in the league and needed help at almost every position and Burns is probably the best player remaining on the board. 

                            Run defense has been a weakness for Burns, which drops him out of the top-10, but he’s been one of the most productive pass rushers in the league over the past five seasons, totaling 46 sacks, 56 hits, and a 11.8% pressure rate in 80 career games. The team that originally drafted him 16th, the Carolina Panthers, is expected to franchise tag and extend him this off-season on a contract that makes him one of the highest paid edge defenders in the league, unlike the Dolphins with Wilkins.

                            14. Atlanta Falcons – DE Montez Sweat (Mississippi State)

                              It feels like I give the Falcons an edge defender in these redrafts every year, but it has been one of their biggest needs as long as I can remember. The Falcons had 42 sacks in 2023, but that was their first season of at least 40 sacks since all the way back in 2004. Fortunately, there are still good defensive linemen on the board in one of the best defensive line drafts in history. Montez Sweat, originally the 26th overall pick by Washington, is a better run defender than pass rusher, but also has 34.5 sacks, 52 hits, and a 12.0% pressure rate in 60 games over the past four seasons.

                              15. Washington Redskins – WR Terry McLaurin (Ohio State)

                                Washington’s original pick here, quarterback Dwayne Haskins (RIP), did not pan out, struggling in 13 starts in just two seasons with the team, before being released. Wide receiver Terry McLaurin was originally a third round pick by Washington in this draft, but he turned out to be the far better player and would need to be taken in the first round in a redraft if Washington wants to keep him, which they likely would, given that they extended him on a 3-year, 68.364 million dollar deal. He’s not the top level receiver some players in this draft are, but he’s still surpassed 1000 yards receiving in four straight seasons, despite poor quarterback play, and he’s averaged a 80/1123/5 slash line per 17 games in his career, with an average of 1.85 yards per route run and 8.67 yards per target. 

                                16. Carolina Panthers – TE TJ Hockenson (Iowa)

                                  TJ Hockenson was originally the 8th overall pick by the Lions in this draft. He hasn’t quite played well enough to justify going that high again, but he’s still developed into one of the better tight ends in the league. He took a few years to reach that level, putting up slash lines of 32/367/2, 67/723/6, and 61/583/4 in his first three seasons in the league, but that has increased to 86/914/6 in 2022 and 95/960/5 in 2023. 

                                  Hockenson’s 2023 season ended with a torn ACL that has him questionable for the start of the 2024 season, but he’s still only going into his age 27 season and has a good chance to ultimately bounce back to form and continue being one of the top tight ends in the league. The Panthers still had Greg Olsen in the 2019 off-season, but 2019 was his age 34 season and his final season in Carolina. Aside from Olsen in 2019, the Panthers haven’t had a tight end surpass even 200 yards receiving in a season at all in the past five seasons, so they could use someone like Hockenson.

                                  17. New York Giants – QB Daniel Jones (Duke)

                                    The Giants passed on Daniel Jones with the original pick they used on him, 6th overall, in order to ensure they could keep their stud interior defender Dexter Lawrence, but they still liked Jones enough to give him a 4-year, 160 million dollar extension last off-season and using the 17th overall pick on him would be much more justifiable than taking him at his original spot. The Giants still come out of this draft with Lawrence and Jones in the first round, just in an opposite order.

                                    18. Minnesota Vikings – DT Ed Oliver (Houston)

                                      Interior defender was a big position of weakness for the Vikings in 2019, as their only above average player at the position was Linval Joseph, who was in his age 31 season and his final season with the Vikings. Ed Oliver was originally the 9th overall pick in this draft and, while his run defense has been a liability and he probably wouldn’t be a top-10 pick again as a result, he’s still developed into one of the better interior pass rushers in the league. In five seasons in the league, he has totaled 24 sacks, 42 hits, and a 10.2% pressure rate in 78 career games, with his best season coming in 2023, when he had 9.5 sacks, 7 hits, and a 13.4% pressure rate.

                                      19. Tennessee Titans – DT Christian Wilkins (Clemson)

                                        The Titans miss out on Jeffery Simmons in this redraft, but Christian Wilkins is not a bad consolation prize. He’s a better run defender than pass rusher, but he also has 20.5 sacks, 33 hits, and a 7.4% pressure rate in 81 career games and he’s exceeded a 70 overall grade on PFF in three straight seasons. The team that originally drafted him, the Miami Dolphins, are likely to let him hit the open market as a free agent this off-season, but he figures to be in high demand and should be well-paid on a long-term contract.

                                        20. Denver Broncos – OT Kaleb McGary (Washington)

                                          McGary once looked like a bust as the 31st overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, getting benched in his 2nd season in the league and having his 5th year option declined after his 3rd season in the league, but over the past two seasons he’s been one of the best run blocking tackles in the league, with PFF run blocking grades of 91.6 and 76.5 respectively. After his 4th season in the league, the Falcons reversed course with the player whose option they declined the year prior, keeping him on a 3-year, 34.5 million dollar deal and that deal proved to be a good value after McGary had another strong season again in 2023. 

                                          The amount of time it took McGary to develop and the fact that he has still only been a slightly above average pass protector over the past two seasons (pass blocking grades of 66.9 and 69.5 in 2022 and 2023 respectively) hurt him in this redraft, but this was an especially weak offensive tackle class, so by default McGary has been the best of the bunch. He would fill a big need for the Broncos, who were starting Elijah Wilkinson at right tackle in 2019 and have had issues at that position throughout the past five seasons. 

                                          21. Green Bay Packers – G Elgton Jenkins (Mississippi State)

                                            Elgton Jenkins was originally a second round pick by the Packers, but he has proved to be better than the player the Packers originally took here at 21, safety Darnell Savage, developing into an above average starting guard who can also play both tackle and center if needed (50 career starts at guard, 5 at center, and 13 at tackle). The Packers locked him up long-term on a 4-year, 68 million dollar extension before his 4th season in the league and would probably rather have him than Savage, who has been inconsistent in his career and is being allowed to hit the open market as a free agent this off-season.

                                            22. Philadelphia Eagles – WR Marquise Brown (Oklahoma)

                                              The Eagles have AJ Brown and Devonta Smith now, but there was a time when their wide receiver group was among the worst in the league, with Alshon Jeffery (43/490/4) and Travis Fulgham (38/539/4) leading the group in receiving in 2019 and 2020 respectively. Marquise Brown would have been a big upgrade over both players in the short-term and in the long-term he could have returned the Eagles a first round pick via trade to the Cardinals, as he did for the Ravens, who selected him 25th overall in 2019 and got pick 23rd back for him in 2021. 

                                              Brown hasn’t quite been as good as some of the elite wide receivers in this draft, but he surpassed 1000 yards receiving in his final season in Baltimore in 2021 and has a 74/860/7 slash line per 17 games in his career, with averages of 1.55 yards per route run and 6.94 yards per target, despite being on mediocre passing offenses for most of his career. The Cardinals have yet to re-sign him long-term, but he figures to get a sizable payday from someone this off-season, ahead of his age 27 season in 2024.

                                              23. Houston Texans – CB Jamel Dean (Auburn)

                                                Tytus Howard, the Texans’ original pick here, has had his moments, but has been inconsistent and injury prone throughout his career, so the Texans can aim a little higher here. Cornerback was a big need for them during the 2019 off-season and the player they drafted in the second round to address that need, Lonnie Johnson, proved to be a bust, which led to cornerback being a big weakness for the Texans in 2019 and in subsequent seasons. Dean, on the other hand, has received a grade of 74 or higher from PFF in four of five seasons in the league and was re-signed by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who originally drafted him in the third round, on a 4-year, 52 million dollar deal.

                                                24. Oakland Raiders – RB Josh Jacobs (Alabama)

                                                  Running backs rarely go in the first round anymore and even more rarely do they prove to be worth their first round selection, but Jacobs, who was the Raiders’ original pick here, is an exception, as he’s accumulated 6,993 yards from scrimmage and 46 touchdowns as the Raiders’ workhorse running back over the past five seasons, including a 2022 season in which he led the league with 1,653 rushing yards, while also scoring 12 times on 340 carries and adding a 53/400/0 slash line through the air. Jacobs was franchise tagged after that 2022 season and, while he wasn’t re-signed long-term and it now seems unlikely he’ll be kept long-term off-season, that has more to do with running backs not aging well into their late 20s than anything Jacobs has done wrong and I don’t think the Raiders would change anything about drafting Jacobs and having him for the past five seasons.

                                                  25. Baltimore Ravens – WR Diontae Johnson (Toledo)

                                                    The Ravens had a desperate need for wide receiver help during the 2019 off-season. Marquise Brown, their original pick here, led Ravens wide receivers in yardage in 2019 and no one else had better than a 31/339/5 slash line at the wide receiver position. With Brown going off the board a few picks earlier, the Ravens will have to draft a different wide receiver, but Johnson isn’t much of a drop off. In five seasons in the league, the Steelers third round pick has averaged 85/951/5 per 17 games, 6.83 yards per target, and 1.72 yards per route run.

                                                    26. Washington Redskins – MLB Dre Greenlaw (Arkansas)

                                                      Washington misses out on their original pick Montez Sweat here, but Dre Greenlaw isn’t a bad consolation prize, as inside linebacker was a big position of need for them during the 2019 off-season. Washington eventually addressed the position in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft with Jamin Davis, but he has largely been a bust through three seasons in the league and taking Greenlaw here would have allowed them to avoid that mistake. Greenlaw plays outside for the 49ers in their 4-3 defense, but would fit well inside in Washington’s 3-4. He’s not a spectacular player, but has been an above average starter for the 49ers for most of his career since being a 5th round pick of theirs, leading to him being extended on a 2-year, 16.4 million dollar deal last off-season. 

                                                      27. Oakland Raiders – MLB TJ Edwards (Wisconsin)

                                                        Safety Johnathan Abram was a bust as the Raiders’ original pick. There isn’t another good safety available here for the Raiders to replace him with, but the Raiders had problems all over their defense in the 2019 off-season, so they can just take the best available defensive player left on the board. TJ Edwards originally went undrafted, but he has developed into one of the better inside linebackers in the league. 

                                                        A reserve as a rookie with the Eagles, Edwards flashed his potential early on with a 86.6 PFF grade on 112 snaps as a rookie and then continued to show that potential with a 66.5 grade on 492 snaps in 2020 and a 76.3 grade on 684 snaps in 2021, before becoming an every down player over the past two seasons and recording PFF grades of 84.8 and 79.6 on snap counts of 1,040 and 1,042 respectively. He only received a 3-year, 19.5 million dollar deal from the Bears in free agency last off-season after leaving Philadelphia, but that deal looks like a steal after he repeated his strong 2022 season again in 2023. If he played a more valuable position and didn’t take as long to develop into an every down player, he would have gone much higher than this in a redraft and he’d have more opportunity to play early on with the Raiders.

                                                        28. Los Angeles Chargers – C Erik McCoy (Texas A&M)

                                                          Offensive line has been a problem for the Chargers for years. They had veteran Mike Pouncey at center in 2019, but he was limited to five games by injury that season and then retired the following off-season. The Chargers gave a big contract to Corey Linsley during the 2021 off-season to try to fix the center position, but the aging veteran was limited to 33 games in 3 seasons with the Chargers by health problems. Erik McCoy would have been a younger, more long-term solution at the position. He’s made 74 starts in five seasons in the league with the Saints, who drafted him in the 2nd round and extended him on a 5-year, 60 million dollar deal, and he’s surpassed 70 on PFF in three of those five seasons. He also has the ability to move to guard in a pinch if needed, which would be valuable for a Chargers team that has also had issues at that position in recent years.

                                                          29. Seattle Seahawks – OT Jonah Williams (Alabama)

                                                            Williams never justified being the 11th overall pick by the Bengals in this draft, but in a historically weak tackle class, he still has a good chance to go in the first round. After missing his whole rookie season with injury, Williams actually had PFF grades of 70.1 and 77.1 in his second and third seasons in the league, before slipping to 61.2 in 2022, losing his left tackle job, and then falling further to 58.5 on the right side in 2023. Still, it’ll be interesting to see what kind of market he has in free agency this off-season, as some team could still give him at least 10 million a year to bet on his bounce back potential, only going into his age 27 season. The Seahawks had significant right tackle problems in 2019 and could have used Williams as a bookend to aging veteran left tackle Duane Brown.

                                                            30. New York Giants – MLB Bobby Okereke (Stanford)

                                                              Inside linebacker was a position of need for the Giants in 2019 and remained one for years. They eventually addressed it in a big way by signing Bobby Okereke to a 4-year, 40 million dollar deal last off-season and he was one of the better players in the league at his position in his first season with the team with a 78.9 PFF grade on 1,128 snaps, but in this scenario they get Okereke sooner. While 2023 was the best season of Okereke’s career, he also had a 73.3 grade on 970 snaps in 2022 and has mostly been an average or better player throughout his career, since being drafted in the third round by the Colts in 2019. He took time to develop into the player he is now, but he still has a good chance to go in the first round in a redraft when all is said and done.

                                                              31. Atlanta Falcons – RB Tony Pollard (Memphis)

                                                                Running backs rarely pan out as first round picks, but Pollard to the Falcons at the end of the first round is justifiable. The 2019 Falcons were led in rushing by a washed up Devonta Freeman, who averaged just 3.57 YPC on 184 carries, while an equally washed up Todd Gurley averaged just 3.48 YPC on 195 carries to lead the Falcons in 2020. Pollard, meanwhile, has averaged 4.75 YPC with 23 touchdowns on 762 career carries, while adding 1,318 yards and 5 touchdowns on 176 catches in five seasons in the league. 

                                                                Pollard was mostly a backup his first four seasons in the league with the Cowboys, who took him in the 4th round, but he still surpassed 1000 yards on just 193 carries with a 5.22 YPC average in his 4th season in the league in 2022, leading to a franchise tag from the Cowboys the following off-season. Pollard wasn’t as efficient in his first full season as a starter in 2023, with a 3.99 YPC average, but he still had 1,005 yards and 6 touchdowns on 252 carries, despite not being 100% for most of the season, recovering from a broken leg suffered in the previous post-season. Another year removed from that injury, Pollard could easily bounce back and prove he can be an efficient back even in a larger workload. Had he gone to a team like the Falcons instead of the Cowboys, he could have proven that earlier in his career, rather than sitting behind Ezekiel Elliott for most of it.

                                                                32. New England Patriots – WR Jakobi Meyers (NC State)

                                                                  The Patriots badly needed wide receiver help in the 2019 off-season, but their original pick of N’Keal Harry turned out to be a complete bust. Fortunately, they were able to at least find Jakobi Meyers as an undrafted free agent. He never developed into a true #1 receiver, but he was by default their leading receiver in 2020, 2021, and 2022, before signing with the Raiders on a 3-year, 33 million dollar deal last off-season. He’s averaged 1.71 yards per route run and 7.92 yards per target for his career and has a 78/893/4 slash line per 17 games over the past four seasons. Without a better wide receiver option available at this stage of the draft, I don’t think the Patriots would let Meyers get away from them.

                                                                  Super Bowl LVIII Pick

                                                                  stevenlourie 2023 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Super Bowl LVIII Pick

                                                                  San Francisco 49ers (14-5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (14-6) in Super Bowl LVIII

                                                                  The 49ers were by far the better of these two teams in the regular season, finishing the year with a +1.64 yards per play differential, a +6.50% first down rate differential, and a +39.4% DVOA, as opposed to +0.82, +3.55%, and +17.9% for the Chiefs. These two teams have been more even in the post-season, with the Chiefs having a -0.31 yards per play differential and a +2.87% first down rate differential, as opposed to +0.15 and -2.47% for the 49ers, but the 49ers are only slight favorites in this Super Bowl matchup, favored by 2.5 points, and the 49ers big advantage in their regular season numbers suggests they should be favored by more than that, even with both teams being more even in the post-season. The 49ers also have a 4.5-point edge in my roster rankings.

                                                                  However, Patrick Mahomes has been close to an automatic bet as an underdog in his career, with a 10-1 ATS record and a 9-2 straight up record. I ignored this because it was still a small sample size and took the Bills as 2.5-point favorites and the Ravens as 3.5-point underdogs in the Chiefs’ last two games, but it’s becoming apparent that Mahomes should be picked against the spread every time he’s an underdog unless there’s a good reason not to, much like the quarterback he’s often compared against Tom Brady, who went 36-17 ATS and 31-22 straight up in his career as an underdog.

                                                                  The Chiefs also have the experience edge in this game, with head coach Andy Reid having been to four previous Super Bowls as a head coach and Patrick Mahomes having been to three, as opposed to one Super Bowl appearance as a head coach for 49ers’ head coach Kyle Shanahan and none for 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy. On top of that, Andy Reid has been a strong bet in his career as a head coach when given an extra week to gameplan, going 36-24 ATS against the spread. The Chiefs aren’t worth a big bet unless we can get a full field goal against the spread with them, but at the very least the money line seems like a good value at +115.

                                                                  Kansas City Chiefs 24 San Francisco 49ers 23 Upset Pick +115

                                                                  Pick against the spread: Kansas City +2.5

                                                                  Confidence: Low