Month: January 2025

Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams: 2024 NFC Wild Card Round Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (14-3) at Los Angeles Rams (10-7)

When these two teams met back in week 8, it seemed unlikely that they would meet again in the post-season. The Vikings looked playoff bound at 5-1, but the Rams sat at just 2-4 going into that game. However, that game proved to be a turning point for the Rams, who pulled the upset and then proceeded to win eight of their next ten games overall to clinch the NFC West, before resting their starters for a meaningless week 18 games. 

The main reason for the Rams’ improvement was their improved health, as that game against the Vikings was the first game back for their dynamic wide receiver duo of Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, who missed most of the early part of the season with injury. The Rams also proceeded to get even healthier down the stretch when their offensive line got healthy, with their expected starting five offensive linemen not playing together until week 13. 

The Rams finished the season with middling numbers in terms of yards per play differential (-0.27) and first down rate differential (+0.71%), even excluding week 18, but if you look at just weeks 8-17, the Rams were -0.01 in yards per play differential and +1.78% in first down rate differential. If you look at just weeks 13-16, the four games in which they had their offensive line healthy, they had a +0.07 yards per play differential and a 3.29% first down rate differential and went 4-0, including an upset victory over the Bills, which is very relevant as the Rams will have their offensive line healthy for this game and no other significant injuries to speak of.

On the Vikings side, that loss to the Rams could have also been a turning point in their season in a bad way, as they lost stud left tackle Christian Darrisaw with a torn ACL in that game, by far the most notable injury they’ve had all season. However, the Rams mitigated the loss of Darrisaw somewhat by trading for Cam Robinson after that game, and they also got tight end TJ Hockenson back from a torn ACL the following week, which was a boost for this offense and also somewhat mitigated the loss of Darrisaw. As a result, the Vikings have actually gone 9-1 since losing to the Rams, with their one loss coming in week 18 in Detroit.

That being said, you could still argue this team isn’t as good as they were prior to week 8. Their statistical metrics are pretty similar, as the Vikings have a season-long first down rate differential of +2.72% and yards per play differential of +0.31, as compared to +3.07% and +0.14 since week 8. However, the Vikings have played a much easier schedule since week 8, beating just one playoff team over that stretch, a 2-point home victory over the Packers, relevant since they are 2.5-point road favorites in this game against the Rams. The Vikings have also played a much easier schedule overall this season than the Rams, who have an opponents’ winning percentage of .474, as compared to .505 for the Vikings.

Overall, the Rams look like the right side in this one. The Vikings have a significant statistical edge on the season, but that edge goes away when you take into account the Rams’ tougher schedule and better current injury situation. My roster rankings reflect that, giving the Vikings only a half-point edge over the Rams. However, with this line being under a field goal, it’s hard to justify betting on the Rams, especially since this will be essentially a neutral site game for them, with Los Angeles wildfires forcing this game to move to Arizona. 

This being a neutral site game is not as big of a deal for the Rams as it would be for most teams, as they lack homefield advantage in Los Angeles anyway, (+1.9 average point differential at home, +1.1 on the road since moving in 2016), but it’s still worth noting, especially since the situation back home could prove to be a disruption and distraction for them. I am going to take the Rams for pick ‘em purposes, but I still lean slightly towards the Vikings winning this game straight up and, either way, I don’t think this game is worth betting.

Minnesota Vikings 24 Los Angeles Rams 23

Pick against the spread: LA Rams +2.5

Confidence: None

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills: 2024 AFC Wild Card Round Pick

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Denver Broncos (10-7) at Buffalo Bills (13-4)

The Bills finished the regular season at 13-4, 13-3 if we don’t include a meaningless week 18 game in which they rested their starters, but, even if we ignore week 18, the Bills had just a first down rate differential of just +1.50% and a yards per play differential of +0.55 this season, which are more significantly more predictive than win/loss records. The Bills did lead the league with a +24 turnover margin, but turnover margins tend to be inconsistent week-to-week, which is why first down rate and yards per play tend to be much more predictive than anything. In fact, teams with turnover margins better than +1 per game have a turnover margin on average of -0.3 in the post-season, leading to them going 20-26 ATS, 22-24 straight up, 11-16 ATS as favorites, and 5-11 ATS with 7 straight up losses as favorites of 4 or more.

The Bills also faced a relatively easy schedule this season, facing just five playoff opponents, tied for the fewest among playoff qualifiers. Making matters worse, the Bills won just two of those games, with no wins by more than nine points, relevant considering this line is nine. The Broncos haven’t had much success against playoff qualifiers either, going 1-5 (excluding their week 18 win over a Chiefs team that was resting their starters), but they don’t need to win to cover this high spread and only one of their matchups against a playoff qualifier resulted in a loss by more than nine points. I wouldn’t make a big bet on the Broncos, but I expect this game to be relatively close.

Buffalo Bills 25 Denver Broncos 20

Pick against the spread: Denver +9

Confidence: Medium

Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans: 2024 AFC Wild Card Round Pick

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Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) at Houston Texans (10-7)

The Texans are arguably the worst team in the playoffs. They are negative in both first down rate differential (-0.80%) and yards per play differential (-0.04), ranking 4th worst and 2nd worst among playoff qualifiers in those metrics. They’re also arguably the most injury plagued playoff qualifier, missing five above average week one starters, defensive backs Jimmie Ward and Jalen Pitre, wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell, and guard Shaq Mason. 

Making matters worse, all of those except Diggs are relatively recent injuries, going down since week 12, and the Texans have a first down rate differential of -3.17% and a yards per play differential of -0.44 over that stretch. On top of that, the Texans are just 1-5 this season against playoff qualifiers with a -66 point differential in those games, both of which are worst or tied for worst among playoff qualifiers. That one win came all the way back in week 5, when they were a much healthier team.

The Chargers aren’t an overly impressive team, but they have an advantage over the Texans in every aspect. They went just 2-5 against playoff qualifiers with a point differential of -35, which is very underwhelming, but better than the Texans. In terms of first down rate differential and yards per play differential, the Chargers finished the season at +1.12% and +0.10, both better than the Texans’ season-long marks. The Chargers do have some injuries, but none are as significant as any of the five key players the Texans are missing. 

The Chargers also have mostly gotten better as the season has gone on, dating back to Justin Herbert returning to full health from an early season leg injury. Herbert had a PFF grade of 55.4 through the first five games of the season, but that has jumped to 94.3 in the twelve games since, best in the NFL among eligible quarterbacks over that stretch. As a team, the Chargers have a first down rate differential of +1.69% and a yards per play differential of +0.28 over that stretch. With the current injury state these two teams are in, the Chargers have a 5-point edge over the Texans in my roster rankings.

The Texans are at home in this game, but the Chargers don’t have much homefield advantage in Los Angeles anyway. Since moving there in 2017, the Chargers are 27-34-3 ATS at home with an average point differential of +1.2, as opposed to 39-26-4 ATS on the road with an average point differential of +1.8. Between that and the Chargers’ significant edge in my roster rankings, we are getting some line value with the Chargers as 2.5-point favorites. There isn’t quite enough here for the Chargers to be bettable, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Los Angeles Chargers 24 Houston Texans 19

Pick against the spread: LA Chargers -2.5

Confidence: Low

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens: 2024 AFC Wild Card Round Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) at Baltimore Ravens (12-5)

The Ravens finished the regular season first in both yards per play differential and first down rate differential by a wide margin, with their yards per play differential of +1.66 being significantly better than the second best team at +0.99 and their first down rate differential of +6.36% being significantly better than the second best team at +4.70%. Their offense led the way with a 6.85 yards per play average (2nd best in the league was 6.24) and a 36.22% first down rate (2nd best in the league was 35.90%), but their defense has also been especially good in recent weeks, since making a switch at safety from Marcus Williams to Ar’Darius Washington in week 11.

Since week 11, their defense ranks first in both yards per play allowed (4.39) and first down rate allowed (26.44%). In fairness, their offense hasn’t been quite as good over that stretch as it was on the season as a whole, but they still ranked 4th in first down rate and 2nd in yards per play during that stretch at 34.76% and 6.50 respectively. In total, the Ravens have a yards per play differential of +2.11 and a first down rate differential of +8.33% since week 11, both best in the league.

That is despite the fact that the Ravens played playoff qualifiers in five of seven games over that stretch. In fact, no playoff qualifier played more other playoff qualifiers this season than the Ravens who played ten. In those ten games, they went 7-3 both straight up and against the spread, with a point differential of +112, best among playoff qualifiers against other playoff qualifiers by a wide margin, with the Chiefs being second at +42 (excluding their meaningless week 18 loss to the Broncos). The Ravens’ point differential against playoff qualifiers was powered by five wins over other playoff qualifiers by at least 10 points, very relevant considering this line is 9.5.

The Steelers, on the other hand, were one of the weaker playoff qualifiers. They did go 4-3 against other playoff qualifiers, but with a point differential of -30, including double digit losses in each of their last three games against playoff qualifiers. The Steelers also finished the regular season with a yards per play differential of -0.35 and a first down rate differential of -2.23%, both worst among playoff qualifiers. This line might seem high at 9.5, but with that big of a gap between these two teams, this line seems more than warranted. Additionally, big favorites like this tend to cover at a high rate in the first round of the playoffs, with favorites of 9.5 or more going 11-2 ATS, including 3-0 ATS as favorites of exactly 9.5. That alone isn’t a reason to bet on the Ravens, but if this big line scares you, that is definitely worth noting. 

The Ravens do have one thing working against them that prevents this from being a bigger bet and that is the injury to #1 receiver Zay Flowers. The Ravens have been one of the least injury plagued teams in the league this season and, while Flowers is the only key player they are missing for this game, it is still a big absence, particularly when you consider they haven’t dealt with many significant injuries this season. 

The Steelers also have one key player absent, guard James Daniels, but he has been out since week 4 and, unlike the Ravens, the Steelers have had many significant injuries this season, as key players like starting quarterback Russell Wilson (6 games), talented center Zach Frazier (2 games), talented guard Isaac Seumalo (4 games), top wide receiver George Pickens (3 games), top cornerback Joey Porter (1 game), talented safety DeShon Elliott (2 games), and talented edge defenders Alex Highsmith (6 games) and Nick Herbig (4 games) all missed time with injury this season and have since returned. I’m still betting on the Ravens at -9.5, but Flowers’ absence is enough to keep this at a smaller bet and I don’t think I would bet the Ravens at -10.

Baltimore Ravens 26 Pittsburgh Steelers 13

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -9.5

Confidence: Medium

2024 Week 18 NFL Picks

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Pick of the Week

PIT 27 (+2.5) CIN 23 Upset Pick +115

High Confidence Picks

IND 24 (-3) JAX 16

Medium Confidence Picks

BAL 31 (-17.5) CLE 9

PHI 23 (-2.5) NYG 17

Low Confidence Picks

BUF 17 NE 16 (+3)

LAC 24 (-6.5) LV 16

GB 31 (-10) CHI 19

WAS 28 (-6.5) DAL 20

ARZ 23 SF 20 (+4.5)

NYJ 24 (PK) MIA 23

SEA 24 LAR 19 (+7)

No Confidence Picks

ATL 30 (-7.5) CAR 21

DET 30 (-2.5) MIN 27

TB 31 NO 17 (+14.5)

DEN 24 (-10.5) KC 13

TEN 24 HOU 23 (+1.5)

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles: 2024 Week 18 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (3-13) at Philadelphia Eagles (13-3)

The Eagles are resting some key starters in this game, locked into the #2 seed in the NFC regardless of the outcome of this game. Normally I don’t like to bet on games where one team is resting their starter because they tend to be unpredictable, but I think we’re getting some line value with the Eagles in this game. If this was a regular game, my calculated line would have the Eagles favored by 18.5 points. Instead, this line is Philadelphia -2.5, meaning the Eagles’ absent starters would have to be worth 16 points for this line to make sense and I think that’s too much, especially since the Eagles will either be starting Kenny Pickett, a solid backup, or Tanner McKee, who showed promise in limited action last week, at quarterback.

You might be hesitant about betting on a team resting starters, but teams are actually 20-14 ATS in that spot over the past 13 seasons, which isn’t a reason to bet on teams resting starters, but it’s a reason not to shy away from it. The Giants are also in a bad spot after a big upset win last week, winning straight up as underdogs of 7 points against the Colts. Teams cover the spread just at a 41.3% rate the week after winning as home underdogs or five points or more, as it tends to be tough for a bad team to bring that kind of effort two weeks in a row. There still is a lot of uncertainty in a game where the Eagles are resting starters, so this is a small bet, but I think there is money to be made here.

Philadelphia Eagles 23 New York Giants 17

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -2.5

Confidence: Medium

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts: 2024 Week 18 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12) at Indianapolis Colts (7-9)

The Colts lost last week in embarrassing fashion, losing as 7-point favorites against one of the worst teams in the league in the New York Giants. Not only that, but that loss essentially ended the Colts season, as it caused them to be eliminated from post-season contention. You might think the Colts will be flat this week after such an embarrassing loss made this game meaningless for post-season qualification purposes, but we’ve seen plenty of teams give high levels of effort the week after being eliminated, most recently the 49ers and Cardinals last week, the Cardinals doing so after an embarrassing upset loss to the Panthers. 

On top of that, the Colts will be motivated to put that embarrassing loss behind them and avoid another potentially embarrassing loss to another one of the worst teams in the league this week, at home for the Jacksonville Jaguars. Teams tend to bounce back after big upset losses like the Colts’ loss, covering the spread at a 60.7% rate the week after losing as road favorites of seven or more, as teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed after a loss like that, which usually makes them a good bet.

I can’t say for sure that the Colts will be overlooked and embarrassed this week, but they definitely seem undervalued as 4.5-point home favorites over the Jaguars this week. Even with last week’s loss included, the Colts still have a significant edge over the Jaguars in first down rate differential (-0.83% vs. -4.18%) and yards per play differential (-0.12 vs. -0.63), against a pretty similar schedule (.460 opponents winning percentage for the Colts, .474 for the Jaguars). 

The Colts also are a much healthier team, likely missing just three week one starters, one of which is quarterback Anthony Richardson, who has struggled this season, as opposed to at least six missing starters for the Jaguars, most notably quarterback Trevor Lawrence and three starting pass catchers in Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis, and Evan Engram. With injuries factored in, the Colts have a 4.5-point edge over the Jaguars in my roster rankings, giving us a calculated line of Indianapolis -6.5. That gives us decent line value with the Colts, in addition to a strong situational trend on their side, so they are worth betting this week. With no significant players looking truly questionable for either side, I am locking in this bet in early this week before the line potentially increases.

Update: This line weirdly has dropped to 3 in some places, which warrants an additional bet.

Indianapolis Colts 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 16

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -3

Confidence: High

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2024 Week 18 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (8-8) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)

Dating back to Mike Tomlin’s first season in Pittsburgh in 2007, the Steelers have been a great bet as underdogs, going 57-40 ATS, including 17-7 ATS as home underdogs, 24-11 ATS as divisional underdogs, and 7-1 ATS as divisional home underdogs. The Bengals tend to be a good bet later in the season in the Joe Burrow/Zac Taylor era, going 28-17 ATS in week 10 or later since 2020, which could cancel out the trend working in the Steelers’ favor, but the Steelers also benefit from being in their second straight game as home underdogs after a big loss as home underdogs, as teams cover at a 55.2% rate as home underdogs the week after losing by 14 or more as home underdogs.

On top of that, we’re also getting some line value with the Steelers as 2-point home underdogs. The Bengals have a statistical edge despite having two fewer wins, with a first down rate differential of +1.49% and a yards per play differential of +0.29, as opposed to -2.24% and -0.32 for the Steelers, two stats which much more predictive than win/loss record. However, the Steelers have a significant injury edge, as they’re missing just one week 1 starter, right guard James Daniels, who has been out since week 4.

That means the Steelers are relatively very healthy for this point in the season, especially when you consider that key players like starting quarterback Russell Wilson (6 games), talented center Zach Frazier (2 games), talented guard Isaac Seumalo (4 games), top wide receiver George Pickens (3 games), top cornerback Joey Porter (1 game), talented safety DeShon Elliott (2 games), and talented edge defenders Alex Highsmith (6 games) and Nick Herbig (4 games) have all missed time with injury this season and have since returned, so it’s not as if the Steelers have been relatively healthy all season long.

The Bengals, on the other hand, are missing at least six week one starters, potentially eight, and, as a result, are about a point behind the Steelers in my roster rankings, despite their statistical advantage on the season. The Steelers also have one major advantage that yards per play differential, first down rate differential, and my roster rankings don’t show, as their kicker Chris Boswell ranks first in the NFL among eligible kickers with 0.87 points above expected per game this season, while Bengals kicker Evan McPherson is injured and was replaced with Cade York, who is arguably the worst active kicker in the NFL, averaging a league worst 1.69 points below expected per game this season, after averaging 0.57 points below expected per game in 2022 in his only other season in the league. That’s probably worth about two points in the Steelers favor.

Given that disparity at kicker and that the Steelers have the edge in my roster rankings and homefield advantage, my calculated line favors the Steelers at home by at least a field goal, potentially up to five points depending on injuries, so we’re getting good line value with the Steelers at +2 and +110 on the money line, before even taking into account that the Steelers should be in a better spot than the Bengals this week. There is some speculation that the Steelers might rest their starters in this game if the Ravens win as massive favorites over the Browns earlier in the day, which would eliminate the Steelers from the divisional race. That could be part of why the Steelers are home underdogs, but I think it’s highly unlikely that the Steelers rest starters, for a few reasons. 

For one, the Steelers will have to prepare for this game all week as if they are going to have a chance to win the division, as they can’t just assume the Ravens will win. Additionally, head coach Mike Tomlin said he doesn’t expect to rest starters. On top of that, the Steelers still will have the 5 seed to play for even if the Ravens win, which is a big deal, as the 5 seed is the difference between having to go to Baltimore in the first round and getting to go to Houston to face the reeling Texans. If the Steelers win this game, they clinch the 5 seed, but if they lose and the Chargers beat the lowly Raiders, the Steelers would fall to 6. Because of that, I feel comfortable betting on the Steelers this week and want to lock this in before the line potentially moves. If this line stays the same and some key questionable players for the Bengals (running back Chase Brown, right tackle Amarius Mims, cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt) are inactive, I may increase this bet or potentially even make it my Pick of the Week.

Update: Without any better options in a week where at least four, if not more, teams are going to rest their starters, I am making this my Pick of the Week, especially since the line has increased slightly to +2.5.

Pittsburgh Steelers 27 Cincinnati Bengals 23 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh +2.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens: 2024 Week 18 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (3-13) at Baltimore Ravens (11-5)

The Ravens are one of the few teams this week that actually has something to play for, as they can lock up the AFC North and the #3 seed in the AFC with a win this week over the Browns. The Ravens are heavily favored to do that, opening as 17.5-point favorites this week, but that arguably isn’t high enough, as the Ravens rank first statistically and in my roster rankings. My roster rankings have the Ravens 11 points above average, while their first down rate differential of +1.63 and yards per play differential of +6.36% are both significantly better than the second ranked teams in those metrics, which are at +1.08 and +4.60% respectively. 

The Browns have a solid defense, but their offense is horrendous. Not only do they rank 32nd in first down rate and 31st in yards per play, but their current quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson is the worst of the three quarterbacks they’ve played this season and one of the worst quarterbacks in recent memory, with one touchdown to ten interceptions in five career starts. I made a huge mistake last week underestimating how bad he was, but he should be picked against almost every time. 

My calculated line for this game has the Ravens favored by 20, which is decent line value, and the Ravens are also in a good spot. The Browns beat them earlier this season, but that was in Cleveland when the Browns’ best quarterback Jameis Winston was under center and that win actually puts them in a bad spot this week, as teams tend to struggle as big underdogs against a team they’ve already beaten as big underdogs that season. Overall, underdogs or 3.5 or more cover the spread at just a 41.7% rate against a team they already beat as underdogs or 3.5 points or more that season. 

There’s enough here for the Ravens to be worth a bet, even with the line being this high. In fact, I’m locking this bet in now because this line could climb if the Ravens chose to rule out injured veterans like Myles Garrett, Jerome Ford, Jordan Hicks, and/or Denzel Ward, who didn’t practice on Tuesday, for this meaningless week 18 game, while the Ravens weren’t missing any key players at Tuesday’s practice and have an obvious reason to give their best effort.

Update: Good news/bad news for this Ravens bet. The good news is the Browns will be without Ford, Hicks, and Ward this week, which are big absences. The bad news is the Browns will be starting fourth string quarterback Bailey Zappe, who is probably better than Thompson-Robinson by fault. The line has moved up to 20 as well, so I’m glad I locked this in at 17.5. Ultimately, nothing changes with this bet, but these are noteworthy updates.

Baltimore Ravens 31 Cleveland Browns 9

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -17.5

Confidence: Medium